Agreed with magicmerl. If one has drafted enough, I think it's possible to end up with more than one good common that'll always make the deck. Cards like Windscout, Ainok Bond Kin, Feat of Resistance, Debilitating Injury... I think are definitely high, consistent picks and there's a chance of getting them in multiples.
Agree generally, but I think windscout is clearly the odd man out in that group. Bond kin, feat and injury are all awesome and I would gladly take them over more committal multicolor cards early, whereas windscout has only been ok for me, which is I guess why I leaned towards the riskier path.
Winterflame doesn't seem strong enough to splash for, and it's stretching your mana more than I'd like. With 5 red sources, I'd want to run 4 red cards max, so cutting it gets you to 3.5 (the morphs counts as .5).
I'd replace it with salt road, waterwhirl or disdainful stroke. I don't think you'd want a 3rd ancestor - they're good at stalling the ground so your fliers don't get raced by small ground guys, but they're terrible against evasion or a t5 unmorph draw. Raider's spoils doesn't seem like it's good enough either - you don't have enough warriors/tokens to make it better than a waterwhirl.
The general build looks correct, though. You're playing most of your best cards and most of your lands, which is always a good sign.
On the switching colors thing, it was tough to pull the trigger because it seemed every pack there was a decent black card, then a slightly better blue card, but my first picks were abzan based. i.e. Pack 4 or 5 had treasure cruise and sultai scavenger, when I had 1 abzan card, 1 BW, 1 black, 1 blue. I think treasure cruise is the stronger card in a vacuum, but I wasn't sure if it was strong enough to jump ship when I was somewhat solidified in black/abzan.
Jeskai Windscout vs. Armament Corp (you have a spellsnatcher)
Jeskai Windscout vs. Chief of the Scale (you have a spellsnatcher, armament corp)
I took the chief in the 3rd pick, and ended up with a mediocre GBw deck, as the person passing to me was also abzan. Looking back at the whole draft, blue was definitely the color I should've been in. I know it's hard to make a judgment without seeing the whole draft (was irl, so no draft cap), but looking at the 1st three picks, could I have gotten away from abzan here, or was this just unlucky?
Edit:
(If you could list the picks you'd make in a 1, 2, 3 list that'd be the most helpful - I'm having trouble telling what some of you would take)
Bonus question: would you keep this hand?:
g2 on the play vs. mardu (somewhat aggressive, but not valley dasher aggressive): 2 plains, 2 swamp, chief of the scale, siege rhino, abzan charm. We're GBw, splashing 4 white cards. Relevant cards left in deck: 8 green sources (1 etbt), 6 morphs. Keep?
Obviously Crater's Claws was supposed to be included, see my edit in OP.
2 drops not shown in the pictures above: 2x archer's parapet, wetland sanbar, 3x kin tree warden, smoke teller. If you like 2 drops so much, what would you cut from the jeskai deck for sanbar? Imo there's nothing that I'd want to cut for it. I do like -1 colossodon, +1 parapet in the abzan build, though.
re: 2 drop and curving out - most sealed games aren't decided by curving out, but by threat density/who has the last big threat standing.
I think it's almost certain that OP has playables in their SB that they haven't disclosed that would make suce a deck much better.
Why would you assume that? I'm having trouble figuring out why you would be so certain.
Potential sideboard cards for the mardu deck: Rakshasa's secret, Tormenting Voice, Siegecraft, Sidisi's Pet, Rotting Mastodon, Hordeling Outbust, Trumpet Blast.
So yeah. "much better".
Most 2 drops are pretty bad in this format (with a few exceptions), as almost any morph is going to be a better inclusion. If you need an early drop, you might as well play a morph that's a good topdeck come turn 6, rather than a 2 drop that's slightly better in your opening hand, but near useless late.
As for magicmerl's mardu build, that's a good one that I didn't consider. I would probably go -1 Sagu Archer, +1 Chief of the Edge/Swarm of Bloodflies, -1 Bloodfire Mentor (think you meant bloodfire expert), +1 Bellowing Saddlebrute (forgotten? don't see why would you leave him out), -1/2 Plains, +1/2 Swamps.
Do you really like the mardu-g deck better than jeskai-b? Comparing what you bet from each option, you have:
Mardu: Pine Walker, Abzan Guide, Ruthless Ripper, 2 Krumar Bond Kin, Bellowing Saddlebrute, Sultai Scavenger, Debilitating Injury, Chief of the Edge.
Jeskai: Jeskai Windscout, 2 Bloodfire Mentor, Warden of the Eye, 2 Weaponmaster Efreet, Mystic of the Hidden Way, Kheru Spellsnatcher, Winterflame.
Though now that I typed it out, the mardu set does look a little bit better. It has fewer flashy cards (weaponmaster, warden, spellsnatcher) but is probably more solid overall. Also the better mana is pretty big.
Please rank the following sealed pool builds from best to worst and explain why you ordered them that way:
Abzan-r, Jeskai-b, Mardu, Temur. (18 lands each) http://imgur.com/a/Pwo6e
Note: the Jeskai-b build is also supposed to have a bloodfell caves (B/R) and scoured barrens (B/W).
Edit: Crater's claws as well.
Interesting spot. I would probably play the thunder brute and hope we don't die.
Let's start with what we know:
The opponent has missed land drops and is most likely color screwed. (If I had too guess, I'd say his 2nd color is most likely red or blue, since those are the best colors for Wx heroic decks.) Their best play last turn was to play favored hoplite and pass with 2 mana up. From this we can know that they most likely don't have a white 1 or 2 drop (would've just cast it), and most likely don't have a white 3 drop (since most 3 drops would be better plays on this board than a 1/2). So their range is: off color cards + 4cmc and higher white cards + potentially reactive cards that they haven't had a good opportunity to cast yet (tricks, enchantment removal). The hoplite is quite a weak play, so it's probably the only castable card in his hand/the bottom of his range.
In previous turns magma jet took out fabled hero, and swiftclaw traded with a butcher that had dragon mantle on it. On the most recent turn, we attacked with the skink to scry, they didn't block, then we played the conscriptor. (maybe we didn't attack with skink? but you said we scried into a land, so that's what I would guess). Then they attacked with pegasus and the 3/1, and we chose not to block with our conscriptor. He had an opportunity to attack with the sun guide, but chose to leave it back, probably fearing being killed out of nowhere with conscriptor. (though I'm not sure what he could be afraid of that didn't involve 2 targeting spells anyway). We didn't block with our conscriptor, so clearly we place some value on it, as the default play when you are behind would be to trade creatures and take less damage. So our opponent should suspect that we have a pump spell/way to make use of the conscriptor.
What are our main options?
A. We could play thunder brute and pass.
B. We could play warhound and hold up titan's strength.
There are other potential plays, but those seem like the best options, so we'll just analyze them.
Intuitively, I'd want to go with A - it uses our mana the most efficiently, develops our board the most, and stops the most damage assuming he can't attack into us. If we survive to the next turn, we could potentially put together some sort of combo kill involving targeting the conscriptor twice. The problem is, if we tap out he could kill us with a pump spell on the pegasus. So how likely is it for him to have a pump spell? Well, he clearly didn't have dauntless onslaught last turn, otherwise we'd be dead. He also didn't have battlewise valor, as again we'd be dead otherwise, since he would've tapped down the conscriptor and attacked with the sun guide for 4 more. (this is assuming that the skink attacked last turn). So we probably aren't dead based on the current cards in his hand, and I'm quite fine with losing to him topdecking onslaught or valor. The problem is he could also topdeck a land of his other color to unlock another pump spell in his hand.
B is ok - we create a blocker for this turn at least, and we don't die to him drawing his 2nd color + having a pump spell. Also, if we draw a land next turn, we can play the brute while still holding up titan's strength, and if we draw a 5 cmc or less card, we could play that while still holding up the trick. We're not going to be able to get him with conscriptor stealing something, since he should suspect we have a trick, and we'd have 4 mana up, which covers most of the tricks in RW. The problem is, what if he just attacks with pegasus and one other creature? We could steal the pegasus and double block, but then he'll just kill the other creature and save the pegasus. If we don't use titan's strength, then we'll be forced to use it the next turn, even if he doesn't play his own trick.
Edit: after reading FTW's response, I realized I misread the pegasus - it can block alone just fine. So as long as we are holding up titan's strength, we can use it as a removal spell to kill the pegasus when he attacks with it + another creature. So that's definitely another reason to go for B.
Overall, we're in a fairly precarious position - behind on the board and in life totals. As soon as our opponent draws out of his color screw, he can start casting all the other cards in his hand and applying more pressure to us. He has a flier that we have a 1 turn fog for, but otherwise can't interact with. As such, I'd want to try and "turn the corner" as soon as possible and start attacking him, which starts with casting the thunder brute. We are tapping out this turn, but if there was ever a turn to tap out, this is it - the probability that he finds his 2nd color/has a trick is just going to increase in the future. We're taking a risk, but we're currently behind (so being conservative is harder to justify) and the upside is there (if we don't die, we get to relative parity on the board). Our opponent's color screw has given us a window to turn the tables on him, so I'd hope to take advantage of that by just casting the brute.
I would not board out keepsake gorgon. It's too good in the games where they don't draw phenax. I think your best strategy post board is to make sure you win the games where they don't draw phenax. That means not diluting your deck with terrible cards that give you +3% equity vs. phenax draws, but -20% equity vs. non-phenax draws.
If you figure an average game vs. UB control might go 10 turns, then he has 17/40 draws to hit phenax, so he's 42.5% to hit it - that's nowhere near 100%, so just try to win the other 67.5% of games. Obviously you bring in revoke, and I can definitely get behind tweaking your deck slightly to be more aggressive and apply more pressure, but you can't give up too much power in the games where he doesn't draw the one specific card you are worried about. I wouldn't splash green for fade unless your deck is also very slow and controlling and you expect the games to go extremely long - your best plan is to not stumble on mana and kill him quickly.
P1p1 was correct. I don't pass Shriekmaw often, but I don't pass Mirror Entity ever.
P1p7 Harbinger is better than the very mediocre Daggerdare regardless of how good the spell is that you're tutoring up. Since you are clearly at least splashing the Entity this pick is wrong.
P2p2 Since the guy passing this pack to you already has a Shriekmaw from your p1p1 I can only assume he was too busy drooling on his keyboard to pick. Regardless, you have a splash card already which is better than Shriekmaw. Just take the gloveslap and tilt a little inside.
P2p3 I'm sure this should have been fire-belly changeling. You need elves for Lys Alana.
P2p8 Guardian of Cloverdell is playable if unexciting. You'll never need the second Hurly-Burly.
P3p3 Bowmaster. I recognize that you don't have many Elves at this point, but how do you beat a flier with the cards you have?
p1p1 that's what I figured, yeah.
P1p7 now that you point it out, yes, elvish harbinger is definitely the pick. Do you agree with p1p3 being a mistake though?
However, I strongly disagree with calling daggerdare mediocre. To me, he's one of the top green commons (Lys Alana Huntmaster, Cloudcrown Oak, Leaf Gilder, Kithkin Daggerdare) and all my experiences with him have been excellent. He's basically the green silvergill douser (worse ofc) in that it's very hard for your opponent to win when he's in play; he's another must-kill utility creature.
p2p2 agree. I think if I end up splashing the entity I should probably take the shard volley p3p5 to have more removal. I'm not sure why I didn't consider splashing it in the final build, though it seems very clear now - I even have giant harbinger to find it.
p2p3 I definitely considered fire belly for the changeling interactions. He also turns on the blind spot giant and trigger battlewand oak. I still kind of like taking the igniter here though - it's just a much more powerful card. You could make the argument that since the deck is so scattered at this point, I'm going to need the "tribal glue" of changelings to hold everything together (support all my disconnected tribal cards), but I think when I'm already on the plan of "generally good cards with a side of synergy", I should just take the generally good card. Making 1 more elf off of huntmaster isn't going to help that much, given that huntmaster and making tokens aren't key parts of the deck's plan anyway.
p2p8 agree, though I don't like playing 7 drops that aren't oakgnarl warrior. guardian is a potential maindeck card though, whereas the 2nd hurly burly would definitely be sb.
p3p3 you beat fliers by racing with mediocre beats, and earthbrawn helps that plan. If I'm not playing against fliers earthbrawn is the better card by a huge margin, and if I do face fliers it's only slightly worse than bowmaster, given that I can't reliably trigger the elf. I definitely like the earthbrawn here.
I think this is right. Shriekamw is in a better color and gets value immediately/entity is much more vulnerable to removal, but entity usually wins you the game if you untap with it. also being a changeling/fetchable with harbingers.
a clear mistake in retrospect. my thinking was something along the lines of - I don't want to take 3 different colors in the 1st 3rd picks, the most successful decks in LLM are ones that are very focused and "all-in" on a tribe, and the harbinger is basically a 2nd copy of mirror entity. However, incremental growth is clearly the best card in a vacuum and the strongest signal, white is very shallow and unlikely to be open, and topping is not the same as tutoring, especially given the 1/3 body is pretty terrible. I basically thought of it as "2nd copy of mirror entity vs. incremental growth" but in reality that's an oversimplification and ignores the most relevant factor (signals).
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Spring Cleaning
Exiled Boggart
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Soaring Hope
------ LRW ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Boggart Loggers
--> Lys Alana Huntmaster
Runed Stalactite
Inner-Flame Acolyte
Neck Snap
Pestermite
Ringskipper
Black Poplar Shaman
Shimmering Grotto
Elvish Eulogist
Giant's Ire
Sentry Oak
Tar Pitcher
Hoarder's Greed
Brigid, Hero of Kinsbaile
I feel like I successfully dodged a bullet here. white had been pretty cut the 1st pack, and is just a shallow color in general. the most important pack for white is morningtide, and given that it was cut pack 1, I can't really expect to get much pack 3. it's certainly very tempting to take brigid, given that I have entity and kithkin harbinger.
not 100% sure about this vs. moonglove. I figured it wouldn't be too hard to find a 2nd piece of fixing, and my deck was kind of mediocre at the time, so I could use the extra power.
Pack 2 pick 3:
Footbottom Feast
Lowland Oaf
Lignify
Weed Strangle
Kithkin Healer
Shields of Velis Vel
Fire-Belly Changeling
Kithkin Mourncaller
Amoeboid Changeling
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Prowess of the Fair
Merrow Harbinger
--> Inner-Flame Igniter
considered fire-belly for the changling interactions, but I think igniter will be a better card for me overall.
I'd probably want the weak answer to douser/tappers/bombs rather than a random large guy (though at this point i wouldn't mind picking one up.) this might have been a mistake, given that axegrinder is a potential maindeck card, whereas lignify is only a weak potential sideboard card.
Pack 2 pick 5:
Lowland Oaf
Fistful of Force
Quill-Slinger Boggart
Surge of Thoughtweft
Protective Bubble
Fire-Belly Changeling
Skeletal Changeling
Aquitect's Will
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Merrow Harbinger
--> Briarhorn
Pack 2 pick 6:
Paperfin Rascal
Runed Stalactite
--> Nath's Elite
Hunt Down
Giant's Ire
Dawnfluke
Ponder
Black Poplar Shaman
Squeaking Pie Sneak
Thorn of Amethyst
I have one battle-wand, and they do make each other better, but they're not that great given how unfocused my deck is, and I'm currently lacking in removal. hurly burly is a great answer to douser/harrier/pestermite/latchkey which could be problematic for me. I'm think maindecking one is fine in this format.
Pack 2 pick 8:
--> Hurly-Burly
Plover Knights
Broken Ambitions
Boggart Forager
Facevaulter
Hunt Down
Squeaking Pie Sneak
Guardian of Cloverdell
obviously regret the last pick now. I think taking the 2nd hurly burly for the board for the deck with multiple dousers/1 toughness guys is better between hating the plover knights, but I'm not sure. As it turns out, I lost a game to plover knights and never played a matched where I wanted a 2nd hurly burly, but that could just be results oriented.
Pack 3 pick 8:
Changeling Sentinel
Mudbutton Clanger
--> Winnower Patrol
Ink Dissolver
Mothdust Changeling
Blightsoil Druid
Forfend
Research the Deep
Pack 3 pick 9:
Stream of Unconsciousness
Burrenton Shield-Bearers
Stingmoggie
--> Lys Alana Bowmaster
Negate
Prickly Boggart
Orchard Warden
a close pick. I would definitely want a solid 6 drop for the midrange/control matchups, but bowmaster can be insane vs. faeries, makes my kinship guys better, and is just good to have as a reach guy, since I am somewhat short on removal to spend on flying threats.
this fills the slot that axegrinder giant would've, so I don't feel bad for passing them earlier. orchard warden would be much better as a big guy though.
not 100% sure on the mana. Would you go 8-8-1 or 9-7-1? or not splash the shriekmaw and play the weaker on color creatures (blind spot giant and battlewand)
1-2 vs. GW kithkin with incremental growth
misclicked twice ftl in game 1. 3rd game misplayed slightly - board was stalled but he had a 4/4 order of the golden cricket and was hitting me, the turn before I died I suicided my battlewand oak so I could thin my deck with everbark shaman (needed shriekmaw or earthbrawn/briarhorn to go with the rival's duel in my hard), but I probably should've made the play a few turns earlier. justice for passing the incremental growth.
2-0 vs. esper merfolk/faeries
hurly burly killed 2 ink dissolvers and a douser. the casual 2 mana 3 for 1.
2-0 vs. grixis elementals
misplayed slightly by not trading my bowmaster for his mulldrifter on the 1st opportunity when my hand was 2 non-elves and he had shown me aethersnipe in g1. was hoping to draw an elf, but I already had 2 winnower patrols in play so the odds were very low, basically took 2 extra damage and risked him drawing aethersnipe for a very low chance of reward.
Another way to phrase the question would be "what were the best limited formats, and what did those formats generally have in common?". My personal favorites are TPF, ROE, LLM and RGD. Formats that other people consider great that I didn't like as much were ISD and MMA. Looking at all those formats together, there are a few general themes you can pick out:
1. Good removal, and more colors have access to removal than normal:
In ROE blue got narcolepsy, and green had abundant fixing to splash for off-color removal. In ISD blue had silent departure (good enough as removal in a tempo oriented format) and claustrophobia, and green got prey upon. In TPF blue had shaper parasite and erratic mutation, and green got utopia vow (admittedly these were only in 1 pack, but the difference between 0 removal spells in a color and 1-2 is quite significant). In RGD the vast majority of decks were 3+ colors, so everyone had access to some sort of removal. MMA and LLM didn't give blue or green any removal, but the removal spells in black, red and white were all efficient and very playable (unlike cards like lash of the whip in THS, which you are only lukewarm about having in your deck).
In summary, in 4 of the best formats ever (ROE, TPF, RGD, ISD) every color had some sort of access to removal, and in the remaining formats the removal that existed was was efficient and playable. This pretty clearly points to access to good removal as a key factor in having a fun format .
2. Varied archetypes to draft (and its corollary - flexible pick orders within each color)
In all the best formats there was a high reward for drafting synergistic decks (spider spawning/burning vengeance in ISD, ramp/spawn/levelers/auras/control in ROE), and/or each color had fully developed aggressive and controlling aspects that rewarded knowing what type of deck you were drafting. In TPF, for example, there weren't as many obvious synergistic archetypes as "eldrazi spawn" or "levelers", but each color was flexible enough to be drafted in either a controlling or aggressive way and could be powerful at either plan. Both of these factors lead to flexible pick orders within each color, where you value cards differently depending on what type of deck you are drafting - which overall leads to a more interesting drafting experience.
3. A good mana smoothing mechanic:
The best formats have ways to reduce the variance of drawing too many or too few lands by allowing you to use your mana effectively at any stage in the game. TPF had suspend and morph - if you were constrained on mana, you could play your morphs face down or suspend your expensive cards, and later in the game if you were flooded you could hardcast your suspend spells for a more immediate effect, or spend mana on unmorphing your creatures. In ROE the level up mechanic scaled perfectly with the amount of mana you had, letting you develop your board by casting levelers early, while being a mana sink later in the game. Flashback cards in ISD were another class of cards whose effect could scale with the amount of mana you had and were useful at any stage in the game.
Variance with regards to mana is one of the biggest culprits in uninteresting/unfun games of magic, and the best formats had mechanics that could mitigate that variance.
4. Few vanilla cards:
Part of the reason TPF is so fun is that every card does something interesting and there are many possible interactions that can come up every game. This level of interaction density is only possible if there are very few vanilla cards in the format (as per RGD, MMA, and LLM). Having too many vanilla cards (traveling philosopher, felhide minotaur in theros) reduces this complexity and makes the gameplay less enjoyable for experienced players (even if it makes it more comprehensible for novices).
5. Medium to slow game speed:
Somewhat of a side effect of #1, but none of the best formats were blazingly fast. They all gave time for both players to make decisions and choices that effected the game, rather than having the outcome of the game being heavily influenced by how the top ten cards of your deck matched up against the top ten cards of your opponent's deck.
Black and blue are unplayable, white has ornitharch and dauntless onslaught but overall is too weak. Red and green are clearly your best colors, not because they give you any standout spells, but simply because they give you a playable creature base, something the other colors lack. Your color requirements aren't very demanding, with bolt of keranos, swordwise centaur and setessan oathsworn being the only hard to cast cards, and you have 2 amulets and a low overall power level, so a splash seems easy.
The only difficult questions with this pool are which cards you splash (revenge, prophet, or both) and how you build your mana base (8-7-2 and 1 amulet, 8-8-1 and 2 amulets, or possibly 8-7-1 and 2 amulets). Neither revenge nor prophet are windfall slams on the splash with this pool for me, because you have ~8 noncreature spells that you'll want to play, and both of those cards get worse the fewer creatures you have, but they're certainly good enough. I'd probably run 8-7-2 and 1 amulet, splashing both the blue cards.
I have ~$60 in credit at my LGS, but I'm moving away from the area, so I want to cash it out into something that will hold its value. Is buying some modern masters packs from them (with the intention of holding them and selling them in a few years) a good idea? Buying singles seems like terrible value given how much cheaper you can usually get cards online, and I don't play constructed irl so I'd have no use for them besides as an investment. Basically, how can I get the most value from my $60 credit?
Always create your own game - don't join someone else's. If someone is rude, kick them immediately and put them on ignore. It's pretty easy to end up with polite opponents if you follow the above procedure.
Agree generally, but I think windscout is clearly the odd man out in that group. Bond kin, feat and injury are all awesome and I would gladly take them over more committal multicolor cards early, whereas windscout has only been ok for me, which is I guess why I leaned towards the riskier path.
I'd replace it with salt road, waterwhirl or disdainful stroke. I don't think you'd want a 3rd ancestor - they're good at stalling the ground so your fliers don't get raced by small ground guys, but they're terrible against evasion or a t5 unmorph draw. Raider's spoils doesn't seem like it's good enough either - you don't have enough warriors/tokens to make it better than a waterwhirl.
The general build looks correct, though. You're playing most of your best cards and most of your lands, which is always a good sign.
Kheru Spellsnatcher vs. Arc Lightning
Edit:
(If you could list the picks you'd make in a 1, 2, 3 list that'd be the most helpful - I'm having trouble telling what some of you would take)
Bonus question: would you keep this hand?:
2 drops not shown in the pictures above: 2x archer's parapet, wetland sanbar, 3x kin tree warden, smoke teller. If you like 2 drops so much, what would you cut from the jeskai deck for sanbar? Imo there's nothing that I'd want to cut for it. I do like -1 colossodon, +1 parapet in the abzan build, though.
re: 2 drop and curving out - most sealed games aren't decided by curving out, but by threat density/who has the last big threat standing.
Why would you assume that? I'm having trouble figuring out why you would be so certain.
Potential sideboard cards for the mardu deck: Rakshasa's secret, Tormenting Voice, Siegecraft, Sidisi's Pet, Rotting Mastodon, Hordeling Outbust, Trumpet Blast.
So yeah. "much better".
Most 2 drops are pretty bad in this format (with a few exceptions), as almost any morph is going to be a better inclusion. If you need an early drop, you might as well play a morph that's a good topdeck come turn 6, rather than a 2 drop that's slightly better in your opening hand, but near useless late.
As for magicmerl's mardu build, that's a good one that I didn't consider. I would probably go -1 Sagu Archer, +1 Chief of the Edge/Swarm of Bloodflies, -1 Bloodfire Mentor (think you meant bloodfire expert), +1 Bellowing Saddlebrute (forgotten? don't see why would you leave him out), -1/2 Plains, +1/2 Swamps.
Do you really like the mardu-g deck better than jeskai-b? Comparing what you bet from each option, you have:
Mardu: Pine Walker, Abzan Guide, Ruthless Ripper, 2 Krumar Bond Kin, Bellowing Saddlebrute, Sultai Scavenger, Debilitating Injury, Chief of the Edge.
Jeskai: Jeskai Windscout, 2 Bloodfire Mentor, Warden of the Eye, 2 Weaponmaster Efreet, Mystic of the Hidden Way, Kheru Spellsnatcher, Winterflame.
Though now that I typed it out, the mardu set does look a little bit better. It has fewer flashy cards (weaponmaster, warden, spellsnatcher) but is probably more solid overall. Also the better mana is pretty big.
Abzan-r, Jeskai-b, Mardu, Temur. (18 lands each)
http://imgur.com/a/Pwo6e
Note: the Jeskai-b build is also supposed to have a bloodfell caves (B/R) and scoured barrens (B/W).
Edit: Crater's claws as well.
Let's start with what we know:
The opponent has missed land drops and is most likely color screwed. (If I had too guess, I'd say his 2nd color is most likely red or blue, since those are the best colors for Wx heroic decks.) Their best play last turn was to play favored hoplite and pass with 2 mana up. From this we can know that they most likely don't have a white 1 or 2 drop (would've just cast it), and most likely don't have a white 3 drop (since most 3 drops would be better plays on this board than a 1/2). So their range is: off color cards + 4cmc and higher white cards + potentially reactive cards that they haven't had a good opportunity to cast yet (tricks, enchantment removal). The hoplite is quite a weak play, so it's probably the only castable card in his hand/the bottom of his range.
In previous turns magma jet took out fabled hero, and swiftclaw traded with a butcher that had dragon mantle on it. On the most recent turn, we attacked with the skink to scry, they didn't block, then we played the conscriptor. (maybe we didn't attack with skink? but you said we scried into a land, so that's what I would guess). Then they attacked with pegasus and the 3/1, and we chose not to block with our conscriptor. He had an opportunity to attack with the sun guide, but chose to leave it back, probably fearing being killed out of nowhere with conscriptor. (though I'm not sure what he could be afraid of that didn't involve 2 targeting spells anyway). We didn't block with our conscriptor, so clearly we place some value on it, as the default play when you are behind would be to trade creatures and take less damage. So our opponent should suspect that we have a pump spell/way to make use of the conscriptor.
What are our main options?
A. We could play thunder brute and pass.
B. We could play warhound and hold up titan's strength.
There are other potential plays, but those seem like the best options, so we'll just analyze them.
Intuitively, I'd want to go with A - it uses our mana the most efficiently, develops our board the most, and stops the most damage assuming he can't attack into us. If we survive to the next turn, we could potentially put together some sort of combo kill involving targeting the conscriptor twice. The problem is, if we tap out he could kill us with a pump spell on the pegasus. So how likely is it for him to have a pump spell? Well, he clearly didn't have dauntless onslaught last turn, otherwise we'd be dead. He also didn't have battlewise valor, as again we'd be dead otherwise, since he would've tapped down the conscriptor and attacked with the sun guide for 4 more. (this is assuming that the skink attacked last turn). So we probably aren't dead based on the current cards in his hand, and I'm quite fine with losing to him topdecking onslaught or valor. The problem is he could also topdeck a land of his other color to unlock another pump spell in his hand.
B is ok - we create a blocker for this turn at least, and we don't die to him drawing his 2nd color + having a pump spell. Also, if we draw a land next turn, we can play the brute while still holding up titan's strength, and if we draw a 5 cmc or less card, we could play that while still holding up the trick. We're not going to be able to get him with conscriptor stealing something, since he should suspect we have a trick, and we'd have 4 mana up, which covers most of the tricks in RW. The problem is, what if he just attacks with pegasus and one other creature? We could steal the pegasus and double block, but then he'll just kill the other creature and save the pegasus. If we don't use titan's strength, then we'll be forced to use it the next turn, even if he doesn't play his own trick.
Edit: after reading FTW's response, I realized I misread the pegasus - it can block alone just fine. So as long as we are holding up titan's strength, we can use it as a removal spell to kill the pegasus when he attacks with it + another creature. So that's definitely another reason to go for B.
Overall, we're in a fairly precarious position - behind on the board and in life totals. As soon as our opponent draws out of his color screw, he can start casting all the other cards in his hand and applying more pressure to us. He has a flier that we have a 1 turn fog for, but otherwise can't interact with. As such, I'd want to try and "turn the corner" as soon as possible and start attacking him, which starts with casting the thunder brute. We are tapping out this turn, but if there was ever a turn to tap out, this is it - the probability that he finds his 2nd color/has a trick is just going to increase in the future. We're taking a risk, but we're currently behind (so being conservative is harder to justify) and the upside is there (if we don't die, we get to relative parity on the board). Our opponent's color screw has given us a window to turn the tables on him, so I'd hope to take advantage of that by just casting the brute.
If you figure an average game vs. UB control might go 10 turns, then he has 17/40 draws to hit phenax, so he's 42.5% to hit it - that's nowhere near 100%, so just try to win the other 67.5% of games. Obviously you bring in revoke, and I can definitely get behind tweaking your deck slightly to be more aggressive and apply more pressure, but you can't give up too much power in the games where he doesn't draw the one specific card you are worried about. I wouldn't splash green for fade unless your deck is also very slow and controlling and you expect the games to go extremely long - your best plan is to not stumble on mana and kill him quickly.
p1p1 that's what I figured, yeah.
P1p7 now that you point it out, yes, elvish harbinger is definitely the pick. Do you agree with p1p3 being a mistake though?
However, I strongly disagree with calling daggerdare mediocre. To me, he's one of the top green commons (Lys Alana Huntmaster, Cloudcrown Oak, Leaf Gilder, Kithkin Daggerdare) and all my experiences with him have been excellent. He's basically the green silvergill douser (worse ofc) in that it's very hard for your opponent to win when he's in play; he's another must-kill utility creature.
p2p2 agree. I think if I end up splashing the entity I should probably take the shard volley p3p5 to have more removal. I'm not sure why I didn't consider splashing it in the final build, though it seems very clear now - I even have giant harbinger to find it.
p2p3 I definitely considered fire belly for the changeling interactions. He also turns on the blind spot giant and trigger battlewand oak. I still kind of like taking the igniter here though - it's just a much more powerful card. You could make the argument that since the deck is so scattered at this point, I'm going to need the "tribal glue" of changelings to hold everything together (support all my disconnected tribal cards), but I think when I'm already on the plan of "generally good cards with a side of synergy", I should just take the generally good card. Making 1 more elf off of huntmaster isn't going to help that much, given that huntmaster and making tokens aren't key parts of the deck's plan anyway.
p2p8 agree, though I don't like playing 7 drops that aren't oakgnarl warrior. guardian is a potential maindeck card though, whereas the 2nd hurly burly would definitely be sb.
p3p3 you beat fliers by racing with mediocre beats, and earthbrawn helps that plan. If I'm not playing against fliers earthbrawn is the better card by a huge margin, and if I do face fliers it's only slightly worse than bowmaster, given that I can't reliably trigger the elf. I definitely like the earthbrawn here.
------ LRW ------
Pack 1 pick 1:
Wanderer's Twig
Hornet Harasser
Axegrinder Giant
Woodland Changeling
Kithkin Greatheart
Mulldrifter
Exiled Boggart
Ponder
Heal the Scars
Skeletal Changeling
Shields of Velis Vel
Ego Erasure
Crib Swap
Shriekmaw
--> Mirror Entity
Pack 1 pick 2:
Smokebraider
Gilt-Leaf Ambush
Moonglove Winnower
Kinsbaile Balloonist
Inner-Flame Acolyte
Peppersmoke
Caterwauling Boggart
Goldmeadow Dodger
Faerie Trickery
Nightshade Stinger
Guardian of Cloverdell
Glarewielder
Vivid Crag
--> Ashling the Pilgrim
Pack 1 pick 3:
Wanderer's Twig
Hornet Harasser
Axegrinder Giant
Woodland Changeling
Kithkin Greatheart
Blind-Spot Giant
Exiled Boggart
Ponder
Heal the Scars
Skeletal Changeling
--> Kithkin Harbinger
Sylvan Echoes
Incremental Growth
Pack 1 pick 4:
--> Woodland Changeling
Springleaf Drum
Kithkin Healer
Footbottom Feast
Axegrinder Giant
Zephyr Net
Scarred Vinebreeder
Gilt-Leaf Seer
Protective Bubble
Ingot Chewer
Vivid Meadow
Battle Mastery
Pack 1 pick 5:
--> Battlewand Oak
Oaken Brawler
Springjack Knight
Hurly-Burly
Faerie Trickery
Warren-Scourge Elf
Lairwatch Giant
Spiderwig Boggart
Boggart Forager
Sentry Oak
Wild Ricochet
Pack 1 pick 6:
Quill-Slinger Boggart
--> Bog-Strider Ash
Amoeboid Changeling
Spring Cleaning
Exiled Boggart
Shields of Velis Vel
Mournwhelk
Crush Underfoot
Lys Alana Scarblade
Thorntooth Witch
Pack 1 pick 7:
Soulbright Flamekin
--> Kithkin Daggerdare
Soaring Hope
Elvish Branchbender
Wellgabber Apothecary
Aquitect's Will
Mournwhelk
Elvish Harbinger
Inner-Flame Igniter
Pack 1 pick 8:
Hillcomber Giant
Rootgrapple
Triclopean Sight
Nightshade Stinger
Faultgrinder
Ceaseless Searblades
--> Giant Harbinger
Howltooth Hollow
Pack 1 pick 9:
--> Wanderer's Twig
Axegrinder Giant
Exiled Boggart
Heal the Scars
Skeletal Changeling
Shields of Velis Vel
Ego Erasure
Pack 1 pick 10:
Moonglove Winnower
--> Inner-Flame Acolyte
Peppersmoke
Goldmeadow Dodger
Nightshade Stinger
Guardian of Cloverdell
Pack 1 pick 11:
Axegrinder Giant
--> Blind-Spot Giant
Exiled Boggart
Heal the Scars
Sylvan Echoes
Pack 1 pick 12:
Kithkin Healer
Zephyr Net
Gilt-Leaf Seer
--> Ingot Chewer
Pack 1 pick 13:
Springjack Knight
Boggart Forager
--> Sentry Oak
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Spring Cleaning
Exiled Boggart
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Soaring Hope
------ LRW ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Boggart Loggers
--> Lys Alana Huntmaster
Runed Stalactite
Inner-Flame Acolyte
Neck Snap
Pestermite
Ringskipper
Black Poplar Shaman
Shimmering Grotto
Elvish Eulogist
Giant's Ire
Sentry Oak
Tar Pitcher
Hoarder's Greed
Brigid, Hero of Kinsbaile
Pack 2 pick 2:
Peppersmoke
Paperfin Rascal
Nath's Elite
Moonglove Extract
Bog Hoodlums
Oaken Brawler
Nightshade Stinger
Blades of Velis Vel
Elvish Handservant
Dawnfluke
Broken Ambitions
--> Shriekmaw
Familiar's Ruse
Boggart Mob
Pack 2 pick 3:
Footbottom Feast
Lowland Oaf
Lignify
Weed Strangle
Kithkin Healer
Shields of Velis Vel
Fire-Belly Changeling
Kithkin Mourncaller
Amoeboid Changeling
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Prowess of the Fair
Merrow Harbinger
--> Inner-Flame Igniter
Pack 2 pick 4:
Kithkin Healer
Footbottom Feast
Axegrinder Giant
--> Lignify
Silvergill Douser
Scarred Vinebreeder
Gilt-Leaf Seer
Protective Bubble
Ingot Chewer
Amoeboid Changeling
Boggart Shenanigans
Ego Erasure
Pack 2 pick 5:
Lowland Oaf
Fistful of Force
Quill-Slinger Boggart
Surge of Thoughtweft
Protective Bubble
Fire-Belly Changeling
Skeletal Changeling
Aquitect's Will
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Merrow Harbinger
--> Briarhorn
Pack 2 pick 6:
Paperfin Rascal
Runed Stalactite
--> Nath's Elite
Hunt Down
Giant's Ire
Dawnfluke
Ponder
Black Poplar Shaman
Squeaking Pie Sneak
Thorn of Amethyst
Pack 2 pick 7:
Hillcomber Giant
Streambed Aquitects
Stinkdrinker Daredevil
Battlewand Oak
--> Hurly-Burly
Broken Ambitions
Cenn's Heir
Boggart Forager
Facevaulter
Pack 2 pick 8:
--> Hurly-Burly
Plover Knights
Broken Ambitions
Boggart Forager
Facevaulter
Hunt Down
Squeaking Pie Sneak
Guardian of Cloverdell
Pack 2 pick 9:
Boggart Loggers
--> Runed Stalactite
Ringskipper
Shimmering Grotto
Giant's Ire
Sentry Oak
Hoarder's Greed
Pack 2 pick 10:
Bog Hoodlums
Oaken Brawler
Nightshade Stinger
Dawnfluke
--> Broken Ambitions
Familiar's Ruse
Pack 2 pick 11:
--> Lowland Oaf
Lignify
Kithkin Healer
Shields of Velis Vel
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Pack 2 pick 12:
--> Kithkin Healer
Scarred Vinebreeder
Protective Bubble
Boggart Shenanigans
Pack 2 pick 13:
--> Quill-Slinger Boggart
Protective Bubble
Aquitect's Will
Pack 2 pick 14:
Hunt Down
--> Black Poplar Shaman
Pack 2 pick 15:
--> Boggart Forager
------ MOR ------
Pack 3 pick 1:
Order of the Golden Cricket
Sunflare Shaman
Weed-Pruner Poplar
Stream of Unconsciousness
Violet Pall
Burrenton Shield-Bearers
Stingmoggie
Lys Alana Bowmaster
Stonybrook Schoolmaster
Negate
Prickly Boggart
Stinkdrinker Bandit
Orchard Warden
Sage's Dousing
--> Chameleon Colossus
Pack 3 pick 2:
Brighthearth Banneret
Squeaking Pie Grubfellows
Reins of the Vinesteed
Burrenton Bombardier
Distant Melody
Pulling Teeth
Roar of the Crowd
Everbark Shaman
Shinewend
Merrow Witsniper
--> Hunting Triad
Stinkdrinker Bandit
Cloak and Dagger
Murmuring Bosk
Pack 3 pick 3:
Seething Pathblazer
Final-Sting Faerie
Latchkey Faerie
--> Earthbrawn
Order of the Golden Cricket
Floodchaser
Kindled Fury
Lys Alana Bowmaster
Frogtosser Banneret
Stonybrook Banneret
Pyroclast Consul
Thornbite Staff
Slithermuse
Pack 3 pick 4:
Squeaking Pie Grubfellows
Ambassador Oak
Fencer Clique
Dewdrop Spy
Reins of the Vinesteed
Mudbutton Clanger
Shinewend
Festercreep
Hostile Realm
--> Wolf-Skull Shaman
Stomping Slabs
Battletide Alchemist
Pack 3 pick 5:
Shard Volley
--> Winnower Patrol
Pack's Disdain
Seething Pathblazer
Frogtosser Banneret
Mothdust Changeling
Blightsoil Druid
Forfend
Mudbutton Clanger
Inspired Sprite
Stomping Slabs
Pack 3 pick 6:
Elvish Warrior
Earthbrawn
Kithkin Zephyrnaut
Deglamer
Coordinated Barrage
Merrow Witsniper
Blightsoil Druid
--> Rivals' Duel
Thornbite Staff
Supreme Exemplar
Pack 3 pick 7:
--> Brighthearth Banneret
Final-Sting Faerie
Festercreep
Deglamer
Forfend
Floodchaser
Kindled Fury
Waterspout Weavers
Veteran's Armaments
Pack 3 pick 8:
Changeling Sentinel
Mudbutton Clanger
--> Winnower Patrol
Ink Dissolver
Mothdust Changeling
Blightsoil Druid
Forfend
Research the Deep
Pack 3 pick 9:
Stream of Unconsciousness
Burrenton Shield-Bearers
Stingmoggie
--> Lys Alana Bowmaster
Negate
Prickly Boggart
Orchard Warden
Pack 3 pick 10:
Distant Melody
Pulling Teeth
--> Everbark Shaman
Shinewend
Merrow Witsniper
Cloak and Dagger
Pack 3 pick 11:
--> Final-Sting Faerie
Floodchaser
Frogtosser Banneret
Stonybrook Banneret
Pyroclast Consul
Pack 3 pick 12:
--> Squeaking Pie Grubfellows
Shinewend
Hostile Realm
Stomping Slabs
Pack 3 pick 13:
Forfend
--> Mudbutton Clanger
Stomping Slabs
Pack 3 pick 14:
--> Deglamer
Merrow Witsniper
Pack 3 pick 15:
--> Final-Sting Faerie
------ LRW ------
Pack 1 pick 1:
Wanderer's Twig
Hornet Harasser
Axegrinder Giant
Woodland Changeling
Kithkin Greatheart
Mulldrifter
Exiled Boggart
Ponder
Heal the Scars
Skeletal Changeling
Shields of Velis Vel
Ego Erasure
Crib Swap
Shriekmaw
--> Mirror Entity
I think this is right. Shriekamw is in a better color and gets value immediately/entity is much more vulnerable to removal, but entity usually wins you the game if you untap with it. also being a changeling/fetchable with harbingers.
Pack 1 pick 2:
Smokebraider
Gilt-Leaf Ambush
Moonglove Winnower
Kinsbaile Balloonist
Inner-Flame Acolyte
Peppersmoke
Caterwauling Boggart
Goldmeadow Dodger
Faerie Trickery
Nightshade Stinger
Guardian of Cloverdell
Glarewielder
Vivid Crag
--> Ashling the Pilgrim
Pack 1 pick 3:
Wanderer's Twig
Hornet Harasser
Axegrinder Giant
Woodland Changeling
Kithkin Greatheart
Blind-Spot Giant
Exiled Boggart
Ponder
Heal the Scars
Skeletal Changeling
--> Kithkin Harbinger
Sylvan Echoes
Incremental Growth
a clear mistake in retrospect. my thinking was something along the lines of - I don't want to take 3 different colors in the 1st 3rd picks, the most successful decks in LLM are ones that are very focused and "all-in" on a tribe, and the harbinger is basically a 2nd copy of mirror entity. However, incremental growth is clearly the best card in a vacuum and the strongest signal, white is very shallow and unlikely to be open, and topping is not the same as tutoring, especially given the 1/3 body is pretty terrible. I basically thought of it as "2nd copy of mirror entity vs. incremental growth" but in reality that's an oversimplification and ignores the most relevant factor (signals).
Pack 1 pick 4:
--> Woodland Changeling
Springleaf Drum
Kithkin Healer
Footbottom Feast
Axegrinder Giant
Zephyr Net
Scarred Vinebreeder
Gilt-Leaf Seer
Protective Bubble
Ingot Chewer
Vivid Meadow
Battle Mastery
punished
Pack 1 pick 5:
--> Battlewand Oak
Oaken Brawler
Springjack Knight
Hurly-Burly
Faerie Trickery
Warren-Scourge Elf
Lairwatch Giant
Spiderwig Boggart
Boggart Forager
Sentry Oak
Wild Ricochet
everything is mediocre, no reason to stray from green
Pack 1 pick 6:
Quill-Slinger Boggart
--> Bog-Strider Ash
Amoeboid Changeling
Spring Cleaning
Exiled Boggart
Shields of Velis Vel
Mournwhelk
Crush Underfoot
Lys Alana Scarblade
Thorntooth Witch
same
Pack 1 pick 7:
Soulbright Flamekin
--> Kithkin Daggerdare
Soaring Hope
Elvish Branchbender
Wellgabber Apothecary
Aquitect's Will
Mournwhelk
Elvish Harbinger
Inner-Flame Igniter
I have the opportunity to make the same mistake again, but don't
Pack 1 pick 8:
Hillcomber Giant
Rootgrapple
Triclopean Sight
Nightshade Stinger
Faultgrinder
Ceaseless Searblades
--> Giant Harbinger
Howltooth Hollow
mediocre white cards vs. potentially very strong red card.
Pack 1 pick 9:
--> Wanderer's Twig
Axegrinder Giant
Exiled Boggart
Heal the Scars
Skeletal Changeling
Shields of Velis Vel
Ego Erasure
if I do end up in RG, i won't be at a loss for large guys (and won't want many of them, anyway). fixing is harder to come by.
Pack 1 pick 10:
Moonglove Winnower
--> Inner-Flame Acolyte
Peppersmoke
Goldmeadow Dodger
Nightshade Stinger
Guardian of Cloverdell
Pack 1 pick 11:
Axegrinder Giant
--> Blind-Spot Giant
Exiled Boggart
Heal the Scars
Sylvan Echoes
the more powerful card when you can turn it on. same point about big dudes being replaceable.
Pack 1 pick 12:
Kithkin Healer
Zephyr Net
Gilt-Leaf Seer
--> Ingot Chewer
Pack 1 pick 13:
Springjack Knight
Boggart Forager
--> Sentry Oak
Pack 1 pick 14:
--> Spring Cleaning
Exiled Boggart
Pack 1 pick 15:
--> Soaring Hope
------ LRW ------
Pack 2 pick 1:
Boggart Loggers
--> Lys Alana Huntmaster
Runed Stalactite
Inner-Flame Acolyte
Neck Snap
Pestermite
Ringskipper
Black Poplar Shaman
Shimmering Grotto
Elvish Eulogist
Giant's Ire
Sentry Oak
Tar Pitcher
Hoarder's Greed
Brigid, Hero of Kinsbaile
I feel like I successfully dodged a bullet here. white had been pretty cut the 1st pack, and is just a shallow color in general. the most important pack for white is morningtide, and given that it was cut pack 1, I can't really expect to get much pack 3. it's certainly very tempting to take brigid, given that I have entity and kithkin harbinger.
Pack 2 pick 2:
Peppersmoke
Paperfin Rascal
Nath's Elite
Moonglove Extract
Bog Hoodlums
Oaken Brawler
Nightshade Stinger
Blades of Velis Vel
Elvish Handservant
Dawnfluke
Broken Ambitions
--> Shriekmaw
Familiar's Ruse
Boggart Mob
not 100% sure about this vs. moonglove. I figured it wouldn't be too hard to find a 2nd piece of fixing, and my deck was kind of mediocre at the time, so I could use the extra power.
Pack 2 pick 3:
Footbottom Feast
Lowland Oaf
Lignify
Weed Strangle
Kithkin Healer
Shields of Velis Vel
Fire-Belly Changeling
Kithkin Mourncaller
Amoeboid Changeling
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Prowess of the Fair
Merrow Harbinger
--> Inner-Flame Igniter
considered fire-belly for the changling interactions, but I think igniter will be a better card for me overall.
Pack 2 pick 4:
Kithkin Healer
Footbottom Feast
Axegrinder Giant
--> Lignify
Silvergill Douser
Scarred Vinebreeder
Gilt-Leaf Seer
Protective Bubble
Ingot Chewer
Amoeboid Changeling
Boggart Shenanigans
Ego Erasure
I'd probably want the weak answer to douser/tappers/bombs rather than a random large guy (though at this point i wouldn't mind picking one up.) this might have been a mistake, given that axegrinder is a potential maindeck card, whereas lignify is only a weak potential sideboard card.
Pack 2 pick 5:
Lowland Oaf
Fistful of Force
Quill-Slinger Boggart
Surge of Thoughtweft
Protective Bubble
Fire-Belly Changeling
Skeletal Changeling
Aquitect's Will
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Merrow Harbinger
--> Briarhorn
Pack 2 pick 6:
Paperfin Rascal
Runed Stalactite
--> Nath's Elite
Hunt Down
Giant's Ire
Dawnfluke
Ponder
Black Poplar Shaman
Squeaking Pie Sneak
Thorn of Amethyst
Pack 2 pick 7:
Hillcomber Giant
Streambed Aquitects
Stinkdrinker Daredevil
Battlewand Oak
--> Hurly-Burly
Broken Ambitions
Cenn's Heir
Boggart Forager
Facevaulter
I have one battle-wand, and they do make each other better, but they're not that great given how unfocused my deck is, and I'm currently lacking in removal. hurly burly is a great answer to douser/harrier/pestermite/latchkey which could be problematic for me. I'm think maindecking one is fine in this format.
Pack 2 pick 8:
--> Hurly-Burly
Plover Knights
Broken Ambitions
Boggart Forager
Facevaulter
Hunt Down
Squeaking Pie Sneak
Guardian of Cloverdell
obviously regret the last pick now. I think taking the 2nd hurly burly for the board for the deck with multiple dousers/1 toughness guys is better between hating the plover knights, but I'm not sure. As it turns out, I lost a game to plover knights and never played a matched where I wanted a 2nd hurly burly, but that could just be results oriented.
Pack 2 pick 9:
Boggart Loggers
--> Runed Stalactite
Ringskipper
Shimmering Grotto
Giant's Ire
Sentry Oak
Hoarder's Greed
Pack 2 pick 10:
Bog Hoodlums
Oaken Brawler
Nightshade Stinger
Dawnfluke
--> Broken Ambitions
Familiar's Ruse
Pack 2 pick 11:
--> Lowland Oaf
Lignify
Kithkin Healer
Shields of Velis Vel
Kinsbaile Skirmisher
Pack 2 pick 12:
--> Kithkin Healer
Scarred Vinebreeder
Protective Bubble
Boggart Shenanigans
Pack 2 pick 13:
--> Quill-Slinger Boggart
Protective Bubble
Aquitect's Will
Pack 2 pick 14:
Hunt Down
--> Black Poplar Shaman
Pack 2 pick 15:
--> Boggart Forager
------ MOR ------
Pack 3 pick 1:
Order of the Golden Cricket
Sunflare Shaman
Weed-Pruner Poplar
Stream of Unconsciousness
Violet Pall
Burrenton Shield-Bearers
Stingmoggie
Lys Alana Bowmaster
Stonybrook Schoolmaster
Negate
Prickly Boggart
Stinkdrinker Bandit
Orchard Warden
Sage's Dousing
--> Chameleon Colossus
Pack 3 pick 2:
Brighthearth Banneret
Squeaking Pie Grubfellows
Reins of the Vinesteed
Burrenton Bombardier
Distant Melody
Pulling Teeth
Roar of the Crowd
Everbark Shaman
Shinewend
Merrow Witsniper
--> Hunting Triad
Stinkdrinker Bandit
Cloak and Dagger
Murmuring Bosk
Pack 3 pick 3:
Seething Pathblazer
Final-Sting Faerie
Latchkey Faerie
--> Earthbrawn
Order of the Golden Cricket
Floodchaser
Kindled Fury
Lys Alana Bowmaster
Frogtosser Banneret
Stonybrook Banneret
Pyroclast Consul
Thornbite Staff
Slithermuse
Pack 3 pick 4:
Squeaking Pie Grubfellows
Ambassador Oak
Fencer Clique
Dewdrop Spy
Reins of the Vinesteed
Mudbutton Clanger
Shinewend
Festercreep
Hostile Realm
--> Wolf-Skull Shaman
Stomping Slabs
Battletide Alchemist
I have a fair amount of stuff that triggers it and a lot of 4's already.
Pack 3 pick 5:
Shard Volley
--> Winnower Patrol
Pack's Disdain
Seething Pathblazer
Frogtosser Banneret
Mothdust Changeling
Blightsoil Druid
Forfend
Mudbutton Clanger
Inspired Sprite
Stomping Slabs
not really a fan of shard volley whereas patrol can be a great threat. it still is removal though, but I was fine with passing it.
Pack 3 pick 6:
Elvish Warrior
Earthbrawn
Kithkin Zephyrnaut
Deglamer
Coordinated Barrage
Merrow Witsniper
Blightsoil Druid
--> Rivals' Duel
Thornbite Staff
Supreme Exemplar
earthbrawn is the generally more powerful card, but LLM has a lot of must-kill utility/synergy creatures, so I think the removal is better.
Pack 3 pick 7:
--> Brighthearth Banneret
Final-Sting Faerie
Festercreep
Deglamer
Forfend
Floodchaser
Kindled Fury
Waterspout Weavers
Veteran's Armaments
Pack 3 pick 8:
Changeling Sentinel
Mudbutton Clanger
--> Winnower Patrol
Ink Dissolver
Mothdust Changeling
Blightsoil Druid
Forfend
Research the Deep
Pack 3 pick 9:
Stream of Unconsciousness
Burrenton Shield-Bearers
Stingmoggie
--> Lys Alana Bowmaster
Negate
Prickly Boggart
Orchard Warden
a close pick. I would definitely want a solid 6 drop for the midrange/control matchups, but bowmaster can be insane vs. faeries, makes my kinship guys better, and is just good to have as a reach guy, since I am somewhat short on removal to spend on flying threats.
Pack 3 pick 10:
Distant Melody
Pulling Teeth
--> Everbark Shaman
Shinewend
Merrow Witsniper
Cloak and Dagger
this fills the slot that axegrinder giant would've, so I don't feel bad for passing them earlier. orchard warden would be much better as a big guy though.
Pack 3 pick 11:
--> Final-Sting Faerie
Floodchaser
Frogtosser Banneret
Stonybrook Banneret
Pyroclast Consul
a hatedraft either way, the faerie is slightly better than consul so i take that.
Pack 3 pick 12:
--> Squeaking Pie Grubfellows
Shinewend
Hostile Realm
Stomping Slabs
Pack 3 pick 13:
Forfend
--> Mudbutton Clanger
Stomping Slabs
Pack 3 pick 14:
--> Deglamer
Merrow Witsniper
Pack 3 pick 15:
--> Final-Sting Faerie
1 Wolf-Skull Shaman
1 Kithkin Daggerdare
1 Ashling the Pilgrim
2 Winnower Patrol
1 Inner-Flame Igniter
1 Lys Alana Bowmaster
1 Briarhorn
1 Bog-Strider Ash
1 Lys Alana Huntmaster
1 Lowland Oaf
1 Chameleon Colossus
1 Nath's Elite
1 Everbark Shaman
1 Shriekmaw
1 Hunting Triad
1 Earthbrawn
1 Hurly-Burly
1 Rivals' Duel
1 Runed Stalactite
1 Wanderer's Twig
1 Swamp
7 Mountain
9 Forest
1 Mirror Entity
1 Ingot Chewer
1 Lignify
1 Hurly-Burly
1 Deglamer
1 Spring Cleaning
1 Brighthearth Banneret
1 Inner-Flame Acolyte
1 Blind-Spot Giant
1 Battlewand Oak
1 Mountain
not 100% sure on the mana. Would you go 8-8-1 or 9-7-1? or not splash the shriekmaw and play the weaker on color creatures (blind spot giant and battlewand)
1-2 vs. GW kithkin with incremental growth
misclicked twice ftl in game 1. 3rd game misplayed slightly - board was stalled but he had a 4/4 order of the golden cricket and was hitting me, the turn before I died I suicided my battlewand oak so I could thin my deck with everbark shaman (needed shriekmaw or earthbrawn/briarhorn to go with the rival's duel in my hard), but I probably should've made the play a few turns earlier. justice for passing the incremental growth.
2-0 vs. esper merfolk/faeries
hurly burly killed 2 ink dissolvers and a douser. the casual 2 mana 3 for 1.
2-0 vs. grixis elementals
misplayed slightly by not trading my bowmaster for his mulldrifter on the 1st opportunity when my hand was 2 non-elves and he had shown me aethersnipe in g1. was hoping to draw an elf, but I already had 2 winnower patrols in play so the odds were very low, basically took 2 extra damage and risked him drawing aethersnipe for a very low chance of reward.
1. Good removal, and more colors have access to removal than normal:
In ROE blue got narcolepsy, and green had abundant fixing to splash for off-color removal. In ISD blue had silent departure (good enough as removal in a tempo oriented format) and claustrophobia, and green got prey upon. In TPF blue had shaper parasite and erratic mutation, and green got utopia vow (admittedly these were only in 1 pack, but the difference between 0 removal spells in a color and 1-2 is quite significant). In RGD the vast majority of decks were 3+ colors, so everyone had access to some sort of removal. MMA and LLM didn't give blue or green any removal, but the removal spells in black, red and white were all efficient and very playable (unlike cards like lash of the whip in THS, which you are only lukewarm about having in your deck).
In summary, in 4 of the best formats ever (ROE, TPF, RGD, ISD) every color had some sort of access to removal, and in the remaining formats the removal that existed was was efficient and playable. This pretty clearly points to access to good removal as a key factor in having a fun format .
2. Varied archetypes to draft (and its corollary - flexible pick orders within each color)
In all the best formats there was a high reward for drafting synergistic decks (spider spawning/burning vengeance in ISD, ramp/spawn/levelers/auras/control in ROE), and/or each color had fully developed aggressive and controlling aspects that rewarded knowing what type of deck you were drafting. In TPF, for example, there weren't as many obvious synergistic archetypes as "eldrazi spawn" or "levelers", but each color was flexible enough to be drafted in either a controlling or aggressive way and could be powerful at either plan. Both of these factors lead to flexible pick orders within each color, where you value cards differently depending on what type of deck you are drafting - which overall leads to a more interesting drafting experience.
3. A good mana smoothing mechanic:
The best formats have ways to reduce the variance of drawing too many or too few lands by allowing you to use your mana effectively at any stage in the game. TPF had suspend and morph - if you were constrained on mana, you could play your morphs face down or suspend your expensive cards, and later in the game if you were flooded you could hardcast your suspend spells for a more immediate effect, or spend mana on unmorphing your creatures. In ROE the level up mechanic scaled perfectly with the amount of mana you had, letting you develop your board by casting levelers early, while being a mana sink later in the game. Flashback cards in ISD were another class of cards whose effect could scale with the amount of mana you had and were useful at any stage in the game.
Variance with regards to mana is one of the biggest culprits in uninteresting/unfun games of magic, and the best formats had mechanics that could mitigate that variance.
4. Few vanilla cards:
Part of the reason TPF is so fun is that every card does something interesting and there are many possible interactions that can come up every game. This level of interaction density is only possible if there are very few vanilla cards in the format (as per RGD, MMA, and LLM). Having too many vanilla cards (traveling philosopher, felhide minotaur in theros) reduces this complexity and makes the gameplay less enjoyable for experienced players (even if it makes it more comprehensible for novices).
5. Medium to slow game speed:
Somewhat of a side effect of #1, but none of the best formats were blazingly fast. They all gave time for both players to make decisions and choices that effected the game, rather than having the outcome of the game being heavily influenced by how the top ten cards of your deck matched up against the top ten cards of your opponent's deck.
Black and blue are unplayable, white has ornitharch and dauntless onslaught but overall is too weak. Red and green are clearly your best colors, not because they give you any standout spells, but simply because they give you a playable creature base, something the other colors lack. Your color requirements aren't very demanding, with bolt of keranos, swordwise centaur and setessan oathsworn being the only hard to cast cards, and you have 2 amulets and a low overall power level, so a splash seems easy.
The only difficult questions with this pool are which cards you splash (revenge, prophet, or both) and how you build your mana base (8-7-2 and 1 amulet, 8-8-1 and 2 amulets, or possibly 8-7-1 and 2 amulets). Neither revenge nor prophet are windfall slams on the splash with this pool for me, because you have ~8 noncreature spells that you'll want to play, and both of those cards get worse the fewer creatures you have, but they're certainly good enough. I'd probably run 8-7-2 and 1 amulet, splashing both the blue cards.