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  • posted a message on Packs going to $5?
    Excellent example. Current customers are relatively highly engaged (friends play, join the community, huge knowledge base built up over time, etc.) and so their demand is likely more inelastic (like Netflix).

    Impact would be likely be felt in future years as the cost of entry is raised for new players. New players are also unlikely to have the knowledge base that would allow them to limit their expenditures - i.e., may not know that there are cheaper vendors than Amazon, may not know that it's cheaper to buy singles to build a deck than packs, may not know about other formats, etc. WoTC could mitigate this through increasing the number of pre-built entry decks at a reasonable price - which appears to already be part of their current strategy.

    Gotta think that WoTC would roll price hikes out in smaller increments - i.e., a quarter at a time - to reduce payment shock and the PR blowback. $5 could be part of a longer term plan.

    Only slightly related, does anyone know what dealers pay for a box (with shipping)? I'm curious how the markups are shared in the distribution.
    Posted in: Baseless Speculation
  • posted a message on Packs going to $5?
    Once a set moves past the pre-release stage where singles are more expensive due to scarcity and perhaps hype (EV of an INS box was $4.50-5.00 in late Sep/early Oct), the price for singles tends to cluster around the price per pack. EV for the singles in M12, INS, NP, MB, MOB are all at $2.40-2.60/pack, which is about the price/pack when purchasing a box online.

    So if the MSRP for packs increases by 25%, all else equal, the price for the single cards (still in Standard) would be expected to go up by 25%.

    Once a card rotates out of Standard, the relationship between pack costs and single value breaks down (examples: value of the individual singles/pack in M11, ROE, ZEN, WOW range from $1.40-1.80). Since the price today of individual cards post-Standard is not directly related to the original price of the packs, I would expect an increase in MSRP to have no to little impact on these singles.

    The current relationships could change if the number of players in any format changes substantially. i.e., if Standard prices push players into Modern, then the price for Modern cards increase.

    Since internet retailers are selling a commodity, an increase in MSRP would be expected to have a lower % increase in their asking cost and the price most players experience.

    A higher MSRP is probably a boon to the LGS, who would receive most of the benefit. Along those lines, Limited players would bear the majority of the cost increase.
    Posted in: Baseless Speculation
  • posted a message on Ranking INN White Commons
    I wasn't thinking about setting up morbid since White gains fairly limited benefit from creature death (Thraben Sentry as a notable exception).

    Would this then bump Selfless Cathar up from the bottom of most of the lists, since one can always control this morbid trigger?
    Posted in: Limited Archives
  • posted a message on Ranking INN White Commons
    Quote from Sykes
    Doomed traveler is a million times better than thraben sentry.


    I'd be interested in more perspective on this. Doomed Traveler is 2 power over 2 bodies, while Thraben Sentry is also 2 power, with the (fairly easy) trigger to become much more powerful. I also like how both sides of Thraben Sentry are a relevant creature type.

    Is it:

    1. Due to the dearth of one drops in this set, Doomed Traveler goes higher?
    2. By the time 4 mana is available, Thraben Sentry dies too readily to basically any removal?
    3. Superior tempo with Doomed Traveler?
    4. Other?

    Thanks.
    Posted in: Limited Archives
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