My qualm isn't so much about keeping him around. I'm 90% convinced he kills KJ tonight if we leave him alive, it's more about tomorrow. Once the KP is proven people are more likely to want him killed and the wagons are likely going to be fractured tomorrow if he kills KJ. So it might be hard to lynch without him, and that gives him outs to last another night which starts to get concerning if he is a SK of some sort. It's also going to give people a safe place to push. Cyan and others have already started calling for his lynch and will want to lynch him tomorrow. That's the "out" I was referring to. Conversation will naturally swirl around him given some near confirmed town are going to be calling for his lynch so rather than leash him for a flip I'd rather kick him off wagon, get his flip and then play without people being distracted by his generally being alive.
Thanks for the breakdown on Proph's post (even if it completely took you off catching up)! I understand what you're getting at a lot better now. And you're probably right that I read too much into perceived agenda's, I really play off gut feeling way too often.
@tom I think that's way too low a town percentage. I know he's been under pressure, but this claim basically guaranteed that there is no way he survives to the end game. I think that alone is worth 10% to be town. I kind of feel that figuring out early wagons is going to be really hard period. Between how scummy Vezok's push was, Silver's claim and Shadow being out today there are so many natural pushes to make that unless it's a truly bad vote hop it's going to be hard to sort anything out of them.
It was also just scummy full stop, even without the similarity
Are you really at 70% town for silver?
Something like 15% scum 30% SK 55% town. I'm also horrible at assigning percentages but that feels about right. And yeah I have no regrets about trying s hard as I did to get him lynched. Scummy on it's own + fitting scum meta is usually a good sign you should lynch someone.
@grape those two vezok posts were crazy similar. I'm still kinda surprised he did it as town too
And yeah iirc I took a step back when he did the second one and just wanted him to die here when he flipped there.
Was a little weird.
I know, I couldn't get over it. It's why I was so baffled at someone (I think DBS) talking about how it wasn't a scummy meta dive, I was so blinded by the similarity I couldn't look past it.
Proph how much confidence do you have in reading me/shadow interactions?
I was going to respond to that post because god was it bad but meh
I can't tell if it's even worth it
I'd be really curious to hear you reply to it. I didn't think it was bad (well the tom parts were super fence sitty) and would be really curious to hear why you think it is.
Ok
Basically I don't think proph has any idea what he's talking about
lol so now I know what you were thinking when you said "I think we look at the game very differently so I won't argue the point with you I don't think"
@Gemma Yeah the gamestate is a mess right now. Silver has basically been turned into a SK (but he claims he's town aligned) he has to be on every lynch wagon or he dies and he has a mandatory nightly Vig. Or if that's not the part you were lost on my bad.
I know! But Dan got back and I forgot to withdraw the replacement request. That game was an especially boring spectate due to the chats, but I agree the pace is too slow for that. I much prefer reading the old games and catching up when new ones are almost finished.
And on Atog it's more that I believe that KJ is scum with Dota and Shadow and I'm reading into the way he handled KJ differently to Atog. Maybe that's just down to him thinking the Atog slot is dead weight because Atog posts so little, but I think it's more likely to be a townie since he never really touched the Vezok wagon so little but his buddies were all over it (in the end). I am also reading into the fact that they used the heist N1. Feels like they wanted max value out of it and wanted to just get everyone they could involved. So I just don't buy he was choosing a buddy over another there.
Since my name was mentioned I don't think I'll have the time to really dedicate to this and shouldn't be considered. I think either of tom or Shadow would be a great representative and would support either of them being our nominee.
Proph how much confidence do you have in reading me/shadow interactions?
I was going to respond to that post because god was it bad but meh
I can't tell if it's even worth it
I'd be really curious to hear you reply to it. I didn't think it was bad (well the tom parts were super fence sitty) and would be really curious to hear why you think it is.
Wow I'm lowkey hurt that no one cares about me catching up. Apparently Rhand and Proph are the only people that matter, ok.
Also people want to shrug lynch me, I'm sad
I have only myself to blame I guess
I care too (a bit) just feel like there isn't much to solve at this point. Shadow's super outed, KJ is practically there. And Silver has like around a 30% chance of being a SK.
@Gemma the gun got destroyed. Terry pretended to shoot KJ before he owned up to it. KJ's response was underwhelming. We're lynching Shadow today, Silver will not be on the wagon and will flip town (because that's the only way he stays off the wagon) and we lynch KJ tomorrow. Or Silver doesn't stay off the wagon and he shoots KJ and we lynch Silver tomorrow. But I'm not a fan of that. Gives scum an easy out to not play for a phase.
@Shadow that's got to be scum you. You always roll scum in clumps.
@Proph I'm right there with you on Atog being spewed. I don't think Shadow works that hard to move it from one (granted really valuable by role) buddy to another. Especially when the Vezok lynch was sitting there and very easy to hop onto. Feels more like he was trying to set up himself to push into Atog on future days ahead of time. I just don't see the need to push away from Buddy A onto Buddy B when townie A is an easy push. It definitely looks more like an effort to soft defend his buddy, not fight the inevitable lynch of Vezok, and take on the harder job of being the off in nowhereland voter.
Sidebar now the Secret Neighbors game is over: I totally 100% believed Vezok was scummy for his meta dive on Iso because it was so similar to his meta dive on Eco as scum in secret neighbors. Like it was already scummy behavior on it's own, but seeing him use such a similarly agenda driven meta dive there had me convinced he was doing the same thing. Pretty sure Tom noticed it too and was why he suddenly felt better about the Vezok lynch midway through the day, which is actually a really good look for tom.
Back to @Proph here's the main thing that makes me think it's town!Atog. It wasn't like he was making a concerted Dota is town case, just trying to avoid a wagon on him for D1 so they could get him to N1 and use Heist (which is backed up by them actually using it N1). Given he wasn't actually defending Dota and just trying to deflect the wagon onto the generic concept of "lurker" but didn't ever advocate for KJ it really looks like there was an agenda to choose Atog. And that makes sense because losing scum D1 means one less person is available for the Hesit. So yeah I think KJ is pretty much dead to rights here.
That you were completely unafraid that Terry actually shot you, because you knew Shadow had destroyed his items and it wasn't something else. You reacted completely without fear to "being vigged"
I don't know what you're asking KJ. I'm never lynching you before Shadow so you've got that going for you. And I still want Silver to be resolved today by not voting for the lynch wagon on Shadow.
I guess I think KJ is scummy enough I wouldn't consider giving Silver another phase the end of the world, but I'd still rather just lynch KJ tomorrow I think.
@Wuffles Are you comfortable holding onto the mask or do you want me to destroy it? With Dota dead I think it's safe to just have it rest with you and be willed to me or Terry.
Yeah, if you actually shot me without asking for a claim first I'm going to be passed.
Also that's probably scum shadow gloating which annoys me to no end if Terry shot me over that.
So why isn't this a scummy post from you then KJ?
Because it looks to me like you aren't afraid at all of being shot. Like you care more about claiming than anything else. And like you're being pretty simplistic in pointing at Shadow. There is nothing here at all that feels like a real reaction to what happened in the 20 posts above this.
Cyan missing that Silver dies for having 0 or higher sanity isn't a thing, but is something I noticed.
Rhand's confidence in that team is intriguing. I'm not buying Iso, but looking forward to his case.
@Rhand once you do what you need why are you asking KJ for opinions on someone you just said was a buddy?
@RE lol maybe wait for Shadow's flip before deciding I'm scum.
Thanks for the breakdown on Proph's post (even if it completely took you off catching up)! I understand what you're getting at a lot better now. And you're probably right that I read too much into perceived agenda's, I really play off gut feeling way too often.
@tom I think that's way too low a town percentage. I know he's been under pressure, but this claim basically guaranteed that there is no way he survives to the end game. I think that alone is worth 10% to be town. I kind of feel that figuring out early wagons is going to be really hard period. Between how scummy Vezok's push was, Silver's claim and Shadow being out today there are so many natural pushes to make that unless it's a truly bad vote hop it's going to be hard to sort anything out of them.
Something like 15% scum 30% SK 55% town. I'm also horrible at assigning percentages but that feels about right. And yeah I have no regrets about trying s hard as I did to get him lynched. Scummy on it's own + fitting scum meta is usually a good sign you should lynch someone.
I know, I couldn't get over it. It's why I was so baffled at someone (I think DBS) talking about how it wasn't a scummy meta dive, I was so blinded by the similarity I couldn't look past it.
lol so now I know what you were thinking when you said "I think we look at the game very differently so I won't argue the point with you I don't think"
I know! But Dan got back and I forgot to withdraw the replacement request. That game was an especially boring spectate due to the chats, but I agree the pace is too slow for that. I much prefer reading the old games and catching up when new ones are almost finished.
And on Atog it's more that I believe that KJ is scum with Dota and Shadow and I'm reading into the way he handled KJ differently to Atog. Maybe that's just down to him thinking the Atog slot is dead weight because Atog posts so little, but I think it's more likely to be a townie since he never really touched the Vezok wagon so little but his buddies were all over it (in the end). I am also reading into the fact that they used the heist N1. Feels like they wanted max value out of it and wanted to just get everyone they could involved. So I just don't buy he was choosing a buddy over another there.
I'd be really curious to hear you reply to it. I didn't think it was bad (well the tom parts were super fence sitty) and would be really curious to hear why you think it is.
I care too (a bit) just feel like there isn't much to solve at this point. Shadow's super outed, KJ is practically there. And Silver has like around a 30% chance of being a SK.
@Shadow that's got to be scum you. You always roll scum in clumps.
@Proph I'm right there with you on Atog being spewed. I don't think Shadow works that hard to move it from one (granted really valuable by role) buddy to another. Especially when the Vezok lynch was sitting there and very easy to hop onto. Feels more like he was trying to set up himself to push into Atog on future days ahead of time. I just don't see the need to push away from Buddy A onto Buddy B when townie A is an easy push. It definitely looks more like an effort to soft defend his buddy, not fight the inevitable lynch of Vezok, and take on the harder job of being the off in nowhereland voter.
Sidebar now the Secret Neighbors game is over: I totally 100% believed Vezok was scummy for his meta dive on Iso because it was so similar to his meta dive on Eco as scum in secret neighbors. Like it was already scummy behavior on it's own, but seeing him use such a similarly agenda driven meta dive there had me convinced he was doing the same thing. Pretty sure Tom noticed it too and was why he suddenly felt better about the Vezok lynch midway through the day, which is actually a really good look for tom.
Back to @Proph here's the main thing that makes me think it's town!Atog. It wasn't like he was making a concerted Dota is town case, just trying to avoid a wagon on him for D1 so they could get him to N1 and use Heist (which is backed up by them actually using it N1). Given he wasn't actually defending Dota and just trying to deflect the wagon onto the generic concept of "lurker" but didn't ever advocate for KJ it really looks like there was an agenda to choose Atog. And that makes sense because losing scum D1 means one less person is available for the Hesit. So yeah I think KJ is pretty much dead to rights here.
That you were completely unafraid that Terry actually shot you, because you knew Shadow had destroyed his items and it wasn't something else. You reacted completely without fear to "being vigged"
Shadow/tom QT
Shadow/tom discord
Shadow/Eco
Shadow/Rodemy
Eco/tom
Eco/Bur
tom/vezok
Bur/Dan
Scum chat
@Wuffles Are you comfortable holding onto the mask or do you want me to destroy it? With Dota dead I think it's safe to just have it rest with you and be willed to me or Terry.
So why isn't this a scummy post from you then KJ?
Because it looks to me like you aren't afraid at all of being shot. Like you care more about claiming than anything else. And like you're being pretty simplistic in pointing at Shadow. There is nothing here at all that feels like a real reaction to what happened in the 20 posts above this.