2019 Holiday Exchange!
 
A New and Exciting Beginning
 
The End of an Era
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Signaling intention to vote Rhand but holding off now because no one seems to doubt me at this stage.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    It seems very unlikely to me that Rhand and Proph are both town. I just don't believe that town has two glacially slow end game power roles.

    I actually think Rhand and Axel are reasonably likely to be buddies. I think we have too much information at the moment (masons, watcher, and two unknown but information claims). Plus Prophs sort of RB and Vaimes track gift.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Proph »
    I think that the king election is neutral and the increased vote count requirement is definitely scum favored, but we've only seen two abilities thus far.

    I just don't think that analyzing a dreaming god's abilities can tell you much of their alignment; it's better to just rely on behavior than to take a shortcut like that. And I don't think this is mafia Wisp.

    The two abilities thing is actually part of my point. He's used three abilities and we've only seen the results of two of them. The paranoid part of me thinks the third did something we haven't seen (and that's why Wisp was on the "maybe I blocked the kill" idea to cover for the missing ability).

    As for his behvaior, I want to listen to Tom, because he's town, and smart, but I keep coming back to the idea that Wisp is making a ton of noise but has no traction anywhere. The only two pushes I can associate with him are Vaimes, Proph, and KCC. And he's not really pushing KCC. I may be missing one from the early game but I can't remember it.

    I'm going to drop it for now because I'm quite sure I'm in a tunnel and enough smart townies have told me I'm wrong but I just can't stop thinking about it.

    @Wisp because I don't love* any of the wagons but I don't have anything I feel confident enough going to bat for right now. And given my status in this game I don't want to give "cover" to wagons by putting nearly confirmed town on it and making it easier to sheep. Despite D1 I'm confident in our ability to do something at the last minute.

    * I have no issues with the Rhand wagon, it's just every time I try to ISO him I get bored and think it's utterly unremarkable and want him to post new things.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    If someone got an orb anyway, that'd mean it was a factional ability -so Arsonist, or whatever other neutral altwincon bs.

    -Proph targeting Axel seemed off. Like, if the orb was a positive thing, then knowing I was planning to protect axel with the bd and deflect to someone I thought was scum didn't make sense. Why risk handing a positive orb to scum? And if they were negative, then shadow hitting Vez early is bad, and pointing it at Axel when I could have been lying, or changed my mind, or been interfered with is bad too. Nacho's claim didn't sound like he had gotten something different from vez. But also scumproph letting me target his ability felt off too. My thinking was that he didn't actually care where the orb went, just that it got out there. And wanted some cred for testing me, possibly to avoid blame for where it landed? It seemed like decent odds of a neutral, so I took a shot at being able to cop him with my RB. At worst, I figured even if Proph was town, the orbs couldn't be too important since he basically tossed it at random by targeting axel
    Yeah, I kinda have a one track mind. I think Proph is more likely scum than not here. Too many RBs. The ability is awful and useless as claimed, way worse than my Winter which is already one of the worst abilities I've ever seen, like to the point of being nonsense. I think he probably tried to keep it close to his real ability, but also tried changing it to sound less scummy and just ended up with a ridiculous mess

    The one thing giving me pause is again that he Targeted axel. Scum letting me choose a target is hard to wrap my head around, regardless of what the orbs might do

    The one thing I think you're overlooking as a town probability is town!Proph deciding the abilities are useless due to how unlikely they are to trigger and he gets more utility from confirming the swap than what his role gives.

    I'm not convinced this is the correct read, but it's plausible to me.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Keldeo »
    Oh, then what do you mean by flurry? I thought you meant the final push to lynch her right before the deadline, but that doesn't jibe with this. Do you mean just the longer post that she made before Nacho rescinded?

    Yeah. I'm calling it a flurry because there were a few good posts to my memory, but the big one was the main thing.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Keldeo »
    The weirdest thing to me about Proph's claim is how situational/specific it seems. But that situationality is weird regardless of alignment. He can't do anything but be a loud visitor until the first fall (d3 if we hadn't NLed), and even after that, his claimed role relies on someone specific targeting someone else specific - like, I can't imagine his orb effects proccing outside of a manufactured scenario, or a late endgame situation with only a few people left. I guess the latter fits with the "setting up for later" nature of the role concept?

    I also don't really understand why shadow would use one of his x day shots targeting Vezok, but obviously Proph can't answer that for us.

    Actually, one way to confirm his role would be like, use one of his day shots toDay to give person A a yellow orb, toNight give person B an orange orb, and have A also target B toNight and see if B is told A's role name. The question about whether testing would do anything for us is - if we believe he's telling the truth about the effect of yellow orbs, would we then believe he's town? His other claimed effects seem pretty pro-town, so if that part is true, it seems to me that it's probably just a fiddly, "meant-to-endgame" town role...?

    Proph, can someone hold multiple orbs?

    So I have a few thoughts on why's for Vez. They are wide ranging and almost entirely wine but they all basically boil down to the idea that Vez is alive late in a lot of games and that Shadow would be aware of that.

    As for Proph's role yeah, it's easily the fiddliest role I have run into if true claimed. Doesn't make it false. Doesn't make Proph scum. Just causing me to stop and think a lot. I also think I largely agree with you on the RB's not being too much of a conflict but [redacted] is bugging me.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    @Keldeo KJ has felt utterly agendaless, had lines of thought I can follow, and "felt" town in a tone read sense. I don't trust my tone reads for most people, but I trust them on KJ. I can try to prioritize an ISO dive and show my work but it doesn't feel too important.

    As for KCC I'm basically barning Nacho when he rescinded his CC. The read is stale because it's based on a last ditch flurry from almost a month ago, but it was an impressive flurry and it's stuck in my mind.

    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    Ohh that's right there is no reason to believe my n0 stopped the NK night 1
    Good point Grape

    I mean I know you're being sarcastic, but there really isn't. It's quite uncommon for abilities to be used on a night and have an impact the next night. There is also the fact that your other two abilities have had impacts on the directly following day phases rather than being a night ability at all.

    None of that is conclusive but there is nothing from what we've seen of your abilities that suggests one of them being a town wide doc shot the following night is feasible. Plus the ability itself that you're hoping it was is just incredibly unlikely. A one shot auto success doc shot is really A: incredibly uncommon and B: powerful and unlike the other abilities we've seen.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Prophylaxis »

    Grapefruit: Not sure what I can tell you, it's my role.

    Also I disagree with you about looking at Wisp. Think that dreaming god is designed to have positive and negative effects for the town, and evaluating his alignment based on how scummy or townie his dreaming god abilities are is kind of loose.


    I mean that would be true if his role had shown any positive for town. So far it hasn't. It caused the King election (which is probably slightly scum favoured), presumably increased vote count requirement (definitely scum favoured), and an unknown ability on N0. I do not believe for a second that the N0 choice caused the no kill and assuming that is wildly unfounded.

    And as for your role I believe the gems, I just don't know if I believe the abilities but *shrug*.
    Quote from Lastwhisper »

    @Grape
    You can either assume mafia chose to not use their kp n1, or someone stopped it, I wanna believe it was me, but there are some inconsistences with Gemma dying so idk

    There is no reason to believe that you stopped the kill. Actually none.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    I guess the question for everyone is do we think the increased majority threshold is tied to Wisp's ability?

    I don't think it is but that seems to be the consensus in the thread.

    I ask because if it is due to Wisp we should definitely take a serious look at him today. Because it's decidedly anti town.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Prophylaxis »
    Alright so let me just come clean about my role because there are a lot of questions about it and I'd like to get them answered in this one post.

    I'm Prospero, Town Enchanter.

    My spring ability is I can give someone a green orb at Night.
    My summer ability is that I can give someone a yellow orb at Night.
    My winter ability is that I can give someone a blue orb at Night.
    My fall ability is that I can give someone a orange orb at Night.

    In addition, X times per game during the Day, I can pick an orb and give it to another player during the Day once per Day.

    If a player with a green orb targets a player with an green or orange orb, they are roleblocked.
    If a player with a yellow orb targets a player with a yellow or orange orb, their ability name is told to the player that is targeted.
    If a player with a blue orb targets a player with a blue or orange orb, that player is protected from the first nightkill to target them during that Night.
    Orange orbs have no effect but make the other orbs work.


    Day 1 - shadow targets vezok with a blue orb.
    Night 1 - I target Axel with a yellow orb. Gave my orb to Nacho instead.
    Night 2 - I target dkings with a green orb. I was roleblocked.



    Okay I am obsessed with this role. It's so complicated and finicky. It seems to crazy to be fake but it also isn't passing the sniff test of feeling real to me. I've been trying to sort it out in my head and it just doesn't seem to fit to me. Between the claims of DK, Tom, and KCC I just don't see space for it as claimed. But we know there is a grain of truth because all 3 have some level of public confirmation.

    Asta is confirming DK's protection.
    Proph confirms KCC's RB.
    And Proph's gift is confirmed.

    The whole thing is fishy but I can't figure out what isn't fitting.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    This is a weird game where I know I'm explicitly the scummiest because I'm so disconnected from the game. Maybe the way to solve is to scum read anyone who wasn't paranoid of me because scum would have guessed I was the other mason and known the claim was true.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on The 2019 MTGS Mafia Awards Thread
    Player Awards:
    Best Town Performance (Individual): Tom in GoT
    Best Mafia Performance (Individual): Ecophagy in Secret Agents
    Best Town Performance (Group): GoT
    Best Mafia Performance (Group) One Last Job: Rhand, Shadow, and Cantrip
    Best Town Player: Cantrip
    Best Mafia Player: Tomsloger
    Best Overall Player: Cantrip
    Most Improved Player: Vez

    Mod Awards:
    Best Design: Rock Paper Scissors
    Best Flavor: GoT
    Best Role: I'm biased but it's Varys in GoT
    Best Read: Biased again but One Last Job
    Game of the Year: GoT
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    fair point, but I also dont make very complex games, I like mine being basics or all vanilla

    either way, this isn't relevant

    The larger point is. The smaller point where it's impacting your read of Axel is relevant to the game at hand. Unless you're already discounting your earlier stance.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    no, I want everything to stay in-game, if I believe something needs to be public, I will state it myself

    I think that's a bad rule as a mod and limits player creativity in complex games but I can understand adopting it for low complexity games. But the should aspect of it isn't as important as the fact that DV wouldn't sanction a player for lying about communication with him. That said you can/should ask him yourself if it's worrying you rather than continuing to speculate about it being OOG information in the thread.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • To post a comment, please or register a new account.