MTG Salvation

Glgl

I will not attempt to pass a message through Amy tonight FYI.

Vote: Silver

Giving HR a couple hours (I think he's in the eurozone and will be up by then but idk) but I'm voting before I fall asleep. Amy accurately summed up our chat and I am even more convinced she is town from it. Just very genuine and trying to solve in real time. I've been pocketed in chats before but I think she's town.

Quote from Highroller »

Is there a reason beyond just laziness?

I think if it's not Silver it's Proph and while I'd like you to do your due diligence I don't want to color your read of Amy since you're leaning Proph as well.

Ahhh but you haven't met my dear friend, crippling self doubt. And I've been convinced that Amy is townier than Proph at this point. Rod was pretty townie and Ampharos has been as well. I can dump notes if anyone wants them but I'm lazy and don't really want to given the circumstances.

Also I'm very much regretting not targeting Highroller last night so we could leave a legacy to each other if needed rather than using it to try and solve Amy, but c'est la vie.

Unvote
Amy is hoping to post later. I plan to vote again unless her posts change my thinking.

Quote from Highroller »

I think it's the exact opposite: they'll shoot you and leave it up to me.

It's amazing that we have very, very different reads on this game. I'm definitely not going to vote without Ampharos posting. I'll definitely try to reread the game once more.

Yup. I mean it's sort of par for the course for us, but it's also destroying my confidence in my own reads here since I trust you.

I probably ought to do a D1 reread in order but I also just really don't think it's Amy and think Silver is more likely that Proph (see you've moved my reads! I was the opposite earlier!).

Quote from Silvercrys3467 »

I talked myself into Proph when he tried to overexplain his mindset in response to Highroller's question

His response to that is uh, well, he has to say that now regardless of his alignment; either he actually is a villager and that's what happened or he messed up as a wolf but can't unexplain it now

If you're town I am not looking forward to tomorrow. I'm fairly convinced that the last scum will shoot HR regardless and leave it up to me, which is going to suck if this is wrong. But that's a reasonable point. The overexplanation is weird when it didn't really need to be explained at all (the votes happened without him so no need to vote his town read).

Vote: Silver

Today is tough. I don't feel good about this but I feel better about it than the better options.


@Silver why Proph over Amy? You were pushing Amy more earlier.

Quote from Prophylaxis »

Willing to wait for Amy to answer HR's question, and GF to finish his ISO of me, but I'm still of the opinion that lunching Silver just ends the game in a clean sweep after D1

My ISO is done. Just need to double check your answer but I'm currently at it just being Silver.

Quote from Highroller »

What does "spew" mean?

I've unfortunately used it a few different ways. To clarify in general I've been using it to mean looks town because of flipped scums pushes/reads. And I think that CC and Jack in particular handled Proph like he was town.

I have a thought on Proph re: pivoting to Terry over Jack but I'd like him to address how Terry jumped up his concern list compared to Jack/cayvie first.

Quote from Highroller »

What do you think about the idea of CC and silver both being mafia, CC saying he targeted silver, and silver throwing CC under the bus?

Unlikely but plausible. CC was going down one way or another that day (I mean a buddy could cover for CC but that is so incredibly risky) so going for the distancing hail mary seems not impossible but not likely.

I'm trying to sort through the likihoods and I have Amy as towniest by behavior, Proph as towniest by spew, and Silver being at the center of what would be an incredibly weird play. I am choosing to trust my spew and behavior reads more than I trust figuring out what scum was thinking in that particular case.

The lack of a pivot to Jack is mighty suspicious though. Still reading but it's not sitting well with me.

As for the foreshadowing the RB play CC went out of their way to claim not roleblocked. And like if that's the plan why tip your hand in that way? I guess it could be just spew but with that claim a RB is immediately the first thing a townie would think of. It's why Vaimes and I came out of the gate so focused on the RB specifics and clarifying with the mods about the mechanics. It was front of mind after a friendly neighbor claim.

@HR we're just taking completely opposite things from these posts. I had ZDS as hard town D1 too, primarily for the back and forth with you. So I see that as a positive. Same with pushing CC, especially since he did it in a way where he kept prodding people to take a look at CC. He wasn't leading a crusade beating his drum, he was doing his town bloc thing of asking people to investigate CC and gently pressuring her. Which I think is much more in his town meta than his bussing is. The Terry thing is a reasonably bad look. I'll agree there but voting after the claim is fine. That claim should have moved votes but you raise a good point that his vote should have flowed to Jack/Cayvie based on his reads.

And I don't have a problem with shading Jack outside the lack of a vote at the CC unvote. Again it's a slow build of pointed questions leading to full blown suspicion. Scum!Proph busses but historically has done it with glaring TMI where you can't find a progression if you go back and look for it. It's quite possible he's improved but beyond his meta being "bussing" there isn't a direct match here for his play.

Quote from Silvercrys3467 »

A hard bus is just good tactics here, CC and Cayvie were both sinking from D1

I uh, also hard disagree that Proph had a "good Day 1" and weren't you saying you thought he was individually wolfy you just thought he had good interactions?

I just feel like the game is getting phoned in rn is all

I had been reading him for his thread position more than his own play. I also had faint suspicions because he hadn't built a town bloc the way town!Proph tends to, but rereading D1 he was making serious efforts towards doing so and his own pushes on CC and Jack were better than I remember. Like yes he's vaguely in his scum meta but that alone isn't a scum indicator. Just means I can't clear him as town based on activity.

As for the bussing angle yes there needs to have been bussing involved. That is very clear. But Proph's feels the least likely to me. CC and Jack were sinking on D1 (CC much more than Jack though) and Proph was leading the charge on Jack (with Vaimes) and early on the train for CC. I'm still reading but I have a very hard time seeing scum Proph here (and he's the one I want to be most confident on given HR's long stated suspicion).

I can squint at these two posts as being a little softball'y. Something for his buddies to work with and prove their townieness (they did not take advantage of those opportunities). The question to Jack feels like he's setting up suspicion but then he doesn't put Jack in his suspect pile but then he's in the "?" group and CC alone is in the "w?" pile. But then again progression will matter because the suspicion does seem based on the answer from Jack and not just calling him scum.
Proph's focus on CC feels good. Again I know his meta is to bus but this is more a drawing attention back, asking for opinions than Proph beating the drum trying to lead the charge himself. Which feels like a good look to me. See 145 and 196 for example.

195 doesn't feel like a w/w interaction with Jack to me. Proph's reaction to Jack's read on him is strange-ish but the read by Jack doesn't feel like it's a read on a buddy and their disagreement over Vaimes feels very natural.

Again Proph loves a bus but umm this doesn't feel like a w/w push.

Reading all this I keep having a kernel of paranoia because Proph does bus. It's his MO. But he also has correct and natural feeling reads on both flipped scum from D1. And their interactions with him look strongly like scum trying to kill a townie more than anything else. If this is a bus it's a regfan in JPA2 level bus.

Gah reading Proph's EoD and now I have to go back and see if his town read (not wanting to vote there) is consistent with his behavior. Because if it isn't it's a massive red flag. If he had a consistent town read there it's a great look for Proph.

So my thoughts at this stage are that I'm leaning town. Yes he is a busser, but I believe him here and his D1 is great and CC and Jack seemed to truly want to bury him.