Updates! Modern Merfolk vs:
Grixis Control
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYNOV9UZVCw
Ad Nauseam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mx-zUou-ik
Dredge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m3H---hdOY
Burn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSSWMDmGAYk
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- Realize
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Member for 12 years, 5 months, and 23 days
Last active Mon, Sep, 19 2016 04:17:28
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1
I'm experiencing what seems to be the consensus here that the meta switches taking place are a) more interactive and b) a rise in control. I've been hesitant for any drastic change, but Kira maindeck has been good. Anyone tinkering with Tech Edge in the side again? Much better in the attrition match ups, but I'm a little hesitant if it doesn't double in the side as something against UWx control.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo -
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With the meta (hopefully) becoming a bit more interactive, I've gone back to 2 Kira main board. I have to say, she's been seriously pulling her weight.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo -
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I think that above all, we should be wary of shifting our 75 too much. I think there are some clearly identifiable trends (the format slows down a bit with Eldrazi gone, which makes interaction better) and some pretty probable ones (Ancestral Vision and Sword of the Meek both make U-based decks better), but I'd hesitate to extrapolate further until we get a good grasp on the meta. Our deck is very internally consistent, and that is a strength. Don't squander it by getting cute with tech.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo -
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Neonar113 posted a message on W/x HumansGoing down the WU path. Dragonlord Ojutai seems pretty disgusting together with Always Watching aswell.Posted in: Standard Archives -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on MerfolkPosted in: Aggro & TempoQuote from CoBTyrannon »
Quote from ktkenshinx »Reminder: banlist discussion is prohibited in deck discussion threads. The Modern forum rules are very clear on this. This is to prevent every thread devolving into speculation about probable bans/unbans, which detracts from the strategy and deck development most people want to engage in. Feel free to discuss this topic in the Banlist Thread or the designated Eldrazi threads in Modern general.
If you see anyone talking about bans, ignore them, report them, and/or respond to them via PM. Do not discuss it in the deck threads themselves.
Carry on! (with no more ban talk)
Am i the only one, that thinks his last 3 warnings were unnecessary?
In my oppinion talking about bans and how they might change Merfolk was always discussed in here without ever getting out of hand. I want to appeal this if i'm not alone with this oppinion...
Quote from Giraffe »Agreed. Collaborating on the future metagame, whether there's risk to pick up cards that may decline in value, and other factors is important to me. We should discuss whatever we like here so long as it's related to our deck or its future.
Quote from eviIford »the infractions that I've seen handed out thus far are oppressive and unnecessary
Happy to respond to these concerns.
There's a line between talking about how a ban situation will affect a deck, and talking about the ban rationale itself. For instance, it's fine to say "Let's say Eldrazi eats a ban in April: what does our sideboard look like then?" That is a deck development question that is about deck strategy, and it's totally fine for the thread. But theorizing about unbans is not about Merfolk strategy. It is banlist speculation, which we have already been much more lenient about by allowing it in multiple threads in Modern General until the Eldrazi issue passes. This conversation still needs to stay out of the deck threads.
I understand that people may not understand why bans/unbans can't get discussed in threads. In our experience, this conversation inevitably derails the discussion away from strategy and into a debate about the philosophy of bans/unbans, the likelihood of particular banlist changes, the health of Modern, etc. It's fine to discuss that in certain places in Modern General, but not okay to discuss that in the deck threads. People here just want to build, hone, and play their decks. We don't need every deck thread becoming a satellite banlist discussion thread, which is exactly what used to happen before this rule went into effect.
If anyone still has questions about this, or about specific warnings/infractions, feel free to PM me and/or the other Modern staff. -
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Hello everyone! I played at GP Detroit this weekend and ended up going 11-4. I made some notes on the matches, which hopefully can help others in this thread! I must give credit to Nikachu, as I was planning on running a more threat-dense build, but after he posted his list last week, I incorporated many of his ideas in my final list.Posted in: Aggro & Tempo
Round 1 vs BYE (1-0 Overall)
A hard fought match, but I won. Being able to sleep in and avoid the player’s meeting/first round is fantastic, if you can grind some of the higher planeswalker point multiplier events in your area, it’s well worth the time invested.
Round 2 vs Colton on UWR Control (Won 2-0, 2-0 Overall)
Matchup Rundown:
While we are favored against UWR Control due to Cavern of Souls, Mutavault and Aether Vial, this matchup is definitely one where you really need to read the situation to make the right play. If Merfolk over-commits to the board, or doesn’t play around Path to Exile, you can get blown out to the point where it is difficult to recover. The key is to play out a few threats to chip away at them and only throw a haymaker when you are confident you have the kill. Their sorcery speed board wipes are deadly. Adept also shines here, as you are able to relatively freely commit them to the board to force answers while you hold back other threats.
Sideboard Plan:
+2 Negate (Everything they do)
+2 Dispel (Mainly to protect Master of Waves from Path)
+2 Relic of Progenitus (Snapcasters)
-2 Harbinger of the Tides
-2 Merrow Reejerey
-2 Gut Shot
Game 1: Won this one solely off the back of mutavaults, as I flooded out and he was able to answer my lords with removal. Luckily, he was stuck on lands and wasn’t able to play anything to race my mutavaults.
Game 2: I mulled to 5 and he mulled to 6. Again he had tons of early removal but I was able to land a double master of waves which finished him off. This will be a trend through the day.
Round 3 vs Johnathan on Mardu Tokens (Won 2-1, 3-0 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: This deck wants to stall out a board with tons of removal and tokens to chump until they run you out of resources with Ajani and Liliana. Really cool deck, however a spreading seas tends to take out a big part of their plan of chumping with tokens. This is kind of a fringe deck so not super familiar with the matchup.
Sideboard Plan:
+2 Relic of Progenitus (Lingering Souls)
+2 Negate (Everything they do)
+1 Echoing Truth (Kill every token)
-2 Dismember (Taking 4 to kill a token is not a great plan)
-3 AEther Vial (K Command is a nearly automatic 2-for-1)
Game 1: We both mulled to 6. I was completely dead to his massive amounts of removal, as well as him resolving a K-Command on turn 3 to kill a Lord and my Vial, until I was able to hit runner runner Master of Waves, which his deck is nearly dead to, outside of Path. He didn’t have the answer and my tokens beat his.
Game 2: I kept a promising 7 but ended up drawing no lands and died with a bunch of 3 and 4 drops in hand. By the time I found a 3rd he had Ajani out tapping down one of my lands permanently.
Game 3: Super grindy game as I didn’t find a spreading seas, but he was always on the back foot forced to chump with tokens and only getting to use Liliana as an edict before I killed her on the next turn. Eventually I grinded him out to the point we were both out of resources and took the win.
Round 4 vs Greg on Jund (Won 2-1, 4-0 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: A familiar matchup to most fish players, but be warned, many are now running 2-3 Damnations mainboard to deal with Eldrazi. It puts us in a tough spot, as over-committing means maybe playing into a board wipe, but not putting enough pressure on is a sure recipe for defeat, as a tarmo can end the game real fast for us. Read the board and try to navigate your way through. Alternatively, slam Master of Waves and pray, usually if you get to untap with it not being maelstrom pulsed you win.
Sideboard Plan:
+2 Tidebinder Mage (Lock down their main creature threats)
+2 Relic of Progenitus (Scooze and Goyf)
+2 Negate (Mainly for Liliana, Damnation and Anger)
-4 AEther Vial (K-Command)
-2 Gut Shot (Yes, it can kill Bob, but nothing else. I’d rather just take 4 and also be able to kill Scoozes and early Goyfs)
Game 1: We both mulled to 6. I had a strong start but he was able to start grinding away at my fish thanks to an early Bob, and all the while a goyf was swinging away. I had to take the hits and pray I got there, as chumping would lead to a for sure defeat, but could only get him to 2 before he was able to finish me off.
Game 2: Vapor snag showed up big time for me, as he was much more creature heavy than removal heavy, and I was able to snag away his main blocker for a big lethal swing after getting in some chip damage earlier.
Game 3: One of my closest games of the tournament, where he had mainly removal without much in the way of threats, aside from a couple finks relegated to chumping duty. I was able to get past around 6 health of healing and chip away at him for a few points of damage each turn with a small board to get the win.
Round 5 vs Willam on Abzan Company (Won 2-1, 5-0 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: We have a strong tempo gameplan against them, but it is always nerve-wracking because it feels like they can go infinite at any time. Having maindeck gut shot for Seer is great though, and can be a blowout if they don’t play him last. We need to kick it into high gear in Game 1 and then try to get a clock while holding answers post-board.
Sideboard Plan:
Honestly not sure about this, but at the time I didn’t want to be bouncing finks, and I didn’t think it did enough to really disrupt their game plan.
2x Vapor Snag
2x Harbinger of the Tides
2x Merrow Reejerey (A bit slow/unneeded)
2x Dispel (Chord and Coco)
2x Relic of Progenitus (Stops the combo)
2x Tidebinder Mage (Taps down finks that want to block, early mana dorks)
Game 1: I just went too big against him, spitting out my hand and running him over before he could find much of anything.
Game 2: I tried to play the control route, and it went fairly well, but my board and clock simply wasn’t fast enough, and he was beating me back with Exalted triggers. I went for a Master of Waves to close out the game, and when I swung for the win, he resolved a CoCo. He unfortunately found a Fiend Hunter, which exiled my Master and poof went all my tokens. He won on the backswing.
Game 3: This was another grindy game where we were both trading hits, and he had answers for a lot of my creatures. I ended up needing to topdeck a lord or I would lose, and thankfully a lord showed up for me.
Round 6 vs Devon on Mono-White Soul Sisters (Lost 1-2, 5-1 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: This match tends to be very favored for us, as gaining even ~20 health doesn’t tend to matter when we are free to build a board and start swinging for 20+ a turn, but I highly recommend not relying on that, because they can get very big very quickly.
Sideboard Plan:
2x Dismember (It’s a bit of a hefty price tag to kill a 1/1. Maybe should take out snag though, dismember can kill a soul sister.)
1x Harbinger of the Tides (Can kill a token but doesn’t tend to do much)
2x Negate (All of their spells)
1x Echoing Truth (Board wipe for tokens)
Game 1: He was able to turn 1 a sister, then ran out honor of the pure and then made 3 fliers. I didn’t have the fastest clock, and he was up to almost 30 life. I had only 2 cards in hand, a dismember and a Master of Waves, with 4 lands on the field. I could either dismember the sister and prevent any further life gain, or play Master, let him gain a bunch, but gain a super fast clock. I went for the Master. Unfortunately, he was able to land more tokens, which pushed him out of a 2 turn clock range for me, then killed me in the air with 6 2/2 fliers. If I had dismembered, then played Master the next turn, I probably would have been able to get there.
Game 2: This game is how it is supposed to be. I had a super fast clock of lords, his 1/1s had to chump, and I ran him over.
Game 3: He had a turn 1 sister, and I felt amazing because I was able to turn 0 a gut shot on the sister. However, he had plenty of gas left and played more sisters, tokens and, fatally, two Ajani Pridemates. I had a decent amount of fish, but low amount of Lords. I resolved a Master of Waves, which would have been great if not for the Ajani Pridemates which quickly ended up being 20/20s. I chumped with Master of Waves tokens for a while while building up a board, and the game came down to another crucial decision. He had 40 life and finally found a Serra Ascendant where I didn’t have Kira to block. I was at 3 life. If I let him stay above 30 life, the Serra would be a 6/6 flier and kill me. I could knock him down to 26 if I swung with everything but my Master of Waves tokens, of which I still had plenty to chump. Or I could knock him down to 29 if I kept back mutavault, which would also allow me to keep up Negate. He had one card in hand. If it was a spell, I had to keep up Negate, if it was a creature he would go back above 30 life and kill me with Serra Ascendant. I decided it was more likely he would be able to play a creature and swung, not having enough mana left to Negate. His card was a path to exile and he was able to swing for the win.
Round 7 vs Jesse on Blue Moon (Lost 1-2, 5-2 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: This is supposed to be another favorable matchup for us, but certain things can be killers. Batterskull can race us very well if we don’t have enough of a clock, and anger out of the board can wreck us as well. Importantly, some builds are also running Shackles, so resolve a Kira early if you can!
Sideboard Plan:
-2 Harbinger of the Tides (Don’t want to bounce his creatures, doesn’t stop batterskull long enough)
-2 Gut Shot (Prefer to have Dismember for Pia and Kiran)
+2 Negate (Dispel doesn’t hit enough relevant things, Negate stops batterskull, angers, etc.)
+2 Relic of Progenitus (Snapcasters)
Game 1: I mulled to 5 and he resolved an early batterskull. Nothing much to say here.
Game 2: This was a close game where he had another early batterskull and raced me very well, even though I had a decent board. What saved me was that he played Shackles and took a Lord of Atlantis, which was my only lord left, but didn’t know it still buffed my guys and I was able to swing for lethal.
Game 3: Unfortunately he learned his lesson and resolved an early Shackles. I never found the Kira to counter it, and his batterskull finished the game for him.
Round 8 vs Nicholas on UWR Control (Won 2-0, 6-2 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: See Round 2.
Sideboard Plan: See Round 2.
Game 1: This game went pretty standard, he was able to repeatedly kill my board while I snuck in damage. Eventually I was really low on resources with two useless gut shots in my hand and he had killed off my mutavaults. I was worried until I was able to ‘get’ him with a vapor snag to save a lord from a supreme verdict. He was at 5, so I flashed in a harbinger at his end of turn, replayed Lord on my turn, swung for 3, then double gut shot him to win the game. Crazy stuff!
Game 2: Never found a board wipe, I ran him over. Locked Day Two!
Round 9 vs Eric on GR Eldrazi (Won 2-0, 7-2 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: Finally hit an Eldrazi player! Okay, so in my opinion, the plan here is to race them, bounce anything you can and pray they don’t hit a Thought-Knot. We can be faster than them with the help of our friend the Master of Waves.
Sideboard Plan:
Almost everything in the mainboard is already setup to hate on Eldrazi, so not much to do. I do like Echoing Truth to kill Scions and if you ever get to bounce more than one Eldrazi, it feels great.
-1 Merrow Reejerey
+1 Echoing Truth
Game 1: Triple seas effects slowed him down enormously as I was able to build a massive board and run him over.
Game 2: This was a pure, full out race. Multiple Lords got me there though, and I had just enough to chump a Reality Smasher and leave me at 1 health the turn before I killed him on the backswing.
Round 10 vs Jason on Ad Nauseam (Lost 0-2, 7-3 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: The pre-board can be quite bad for us, as we need a clock and multiple cursecatchers to really have a chance. Post-board it comes down to if we have the disruption. Just a straight up combo matchup.
Sideboard Plan:
-2 Gut Shot (See below)
-2 Vapor Snag (Rather have Dismember if they are on the Lab Maniac plan)
-2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner (Nothing to counter)
-2 Harbinger of the Tides (Nothing to bounce)
+3 Chalice of the Void (Put on 0 to stop Pact of Negation)
+2 Dispel (Stop combo)
+2 Negate (Stop combo)
+1 Echoing Truth (Phyrexian Unlife)
Game 1: I mulled to five, had barely any clock, he just straight up annihilated me.
Game 2: I am an idiot. I mulled to 6, but drew 7. He got to look at my hand and take something. He took my dispel, and he knew I had an Echoing Truth to get his Phyrexian Unlife. I flooded and he killed me with Angel’s Grace and Ad Naus.
Round 11 vs Andrew on Elves (Lost 0-2, 7-4 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: This is real bad for us. They can just go off, our small disruption rarely actually stops them unless their deck kinda fails. Look for a chance to dismember an Ezuri when they don’t have mana up. Otherwise, try to race them.
Sideboard Plan: This is probably horribly wrong, but I just want to make my clock easy to cast while having whatever disruption I can.
4x Master of Waves (Slow)
2x Merrow Reejerey (Slow)
2x Kira, Great Glass-Spinner (They aren’t killing you)
3x Chalice of the Void (Put it on 1 and pray)
2x Dispel (Stops Coco/Chord)
1x Echoing Truth (Hope they have a lot of the same elf)
2x Tidebinder Mage (Tap an early mana dork and pray, or an Archdruid later on)
Game 1: I had a decent clock but he ended up going off when I had him down to 5 and killed me with multiple lord effects.
Game 2: Turn 2 2x Nettle and a Heritage into dumping 10+ elves and killing me with multiple Shaman of the Packs. Ugh.
Round 12 vs Mitchell on Esper Control (Won 2-1, 8-4 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: Not gonna lie, I was happy to see Islands as I was not happy with starting Day Two 0-2 and falling out of money contention. This is similar to UWR Control, but they have more stuff that can kill Master of Waves, which is real bad for us. Mitchell was also running at least one Slaughter Pact, which can cause insane blowouts.
Sideboard Plan:
+2 Negate (Everything they do)
+2 Dispel (Hits all their removal)
+2 Relic of Progenitus (Snapcasters)
-2 Harbinger of the Tides
-2 Merrow Reejerey
-2 Gut Shot
Game 1: This felt much like just playing against UWR Control, where I ended up with too many guys for him to remove and ran him over. I knew post-board it would be tougher and was glad to win Game 1.
Game 2: He hit a lot of removal here and had some clutch Timely Reinforcements. On the turn I went for the win, he hit me with a Slaughter Pact out of nowhere and blew me out.
Game 3: Another game where I felt I was run almost out of resources. Thankfully on my lethal turn, I had a dispel for his doom blade and a cursecatcher to counter his path on my Master of Waves.
Round 13 vs Joey on UW Eldrazi (Won 2-1, 9-4 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: See Round 9, but we need to be careful of Displacers nullifying attacking creatures.
Sideboard Plan: See Round 9.
Game 1: I was able to win the die roll, which seems more important here than anything else than maybe infect. This allowed me to turn 1 Aether Vial, then spreading seas his turn 1 Eldrazi Temple. I followed this up with 4 Lords and 2 Master of Waves, where he scooped as soon as I played the 2nd Master of Waves.
Game 2: This was my only loss to Eldrazi the whole tournament, and I mulled to 6. I didn’t have enough pressure and he outraced me.
Game 3: Clock and tempo is the name of the game here. I established an early board, then echoing truthed two of his Skyspawners to swing with enough for the win.
Round 14 vs Kevin on UW Eldrazi (Won 2-1, 10-4 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: See above.
Sideboard Plan: See above.
Game 1/2: I was pretty braindead at this point and my notes are sloppy, but from my notes, we both just raced each other with no mulligans and I was able to solidly win the race both times. If I recall correctly, Master of Waves was the blowout both times.
Round 15 vs Joseph on Jund (Won 2-1, 11-4 Overall)
Matchup Rundown: Of course my longest and grindiest match is my last Round, where we went to time. See Round 4 for Rundown.
Sideboard Plan: See Round 4
Game 1: He mulled to 6, and I feel in this matchup any mull is bad, as you are almost trading one-for-one resources. He got a goyf out backed up by some removal, but I was able to get in quickly before he found any 2-for-1s or Bobs to regain card advantage.
Game 2: I never found a Spreading Seas and he was able to remove/block enough of my guys to get ahead and finish me off.
Game 3: We had insane, enormous boards, and I didn’t have spreading seas. I’m talking like he had 4-5 creatures, including two finks he got full value from and a hand full of removal spells, I had 4-5 fish, around 6 or 7 Master of Waves tokens, and most importantly, a Kira. I was able to win off the back of having runner runner Negates, which I used to counter his Damnation, then countered his second spell he tried to use to kill Kira. After that, we continue with the board stall until Turn 0 of Turns, where I found a Lord that would allow my guys to get big enough to swing for just barely lethal.
Wrap-up
I finished in 126th place (out of 2555) with my 11-4 record and I was very pleased with my overall performance and the deck. The only card I am iffy on is Gut Shot in the main. It was either amazing or did nothing, and I personally don’t love that type of card. I might go back up to 3x Reej and 3x Harbinger, just for consistency.
As far as how Merfolk sits in the meta, I feel like we are in a decent spot right now, even though every match is tough, and there are a million Paths and Dismembers out there to kill our Master of Waves. Control is a good matchup if played correctly, and we are okay against Eldrazi if they don’t hit the nuts.
Thanks for reading and if anyone has any questions please let me know!
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TBuzzsaw posted a message on [Primer] Abzan Aggro/MidrangeNo report tonight, was too busy going 5-0 in Modern playing Fish.Posted in: Standard Archives -
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Nikachu_ posted a message on [Primer] Merfolk (3/2012 - 11/2015)Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven -
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Burntgerbil posted a message on Eternal Witness reprint ?Yeah, combining everything into that thread is a terrible idea. I don't have time or inclination to sift through every lame comment and wild speculation in there.Posted in: The Rumor Mill
Make potential spoilers more obvious for us - the audience to see. Or risk losing more of us to other spoiler websites. - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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1-of Vapor Snag is tough. A year or so ago I played 4. It's weakness vs. the Snapcaster decks (besides targeting your own guys)is balanced by its being an ideal tempo card. Dismember takes the 2-of slot because of the prevalence of cards like Kalitas or even Siege Rhino in the grindy BGx decks. Those are attrition battles, so you need to be able to remove their card for good rather than buying some tempo.
I've been a proponent of maindeck Relic since Martin Juza's article on CFB. It's never dead. It's clunky vs. aggressive decks like Infect or Burn, but it even slows down Become Immense, so again, not dead. Its value vs. Snap, Goyf, and Dredge (shooting up in popularity) is obvious, but what's overlooked is specifically how it disrupts the game plan. It turns off Junds ability to clock us quickly with Goyfs, which lets us hang around in games and get down more Master of Waves. It disrupts Snapcasters, which are the main way that blue decks can keep up with our abundance of threats and our Silvergills. As a one of, it's not expected to swing the entire matchup. But it does mean that there's a whole additional game in the match where you have an opportunity to draw an effective card.
1-ofs are a personal preference, but I would contend that the deck is more balanced with 1-ofs as they compliment a resilient game plan while often making opponents overreact in sideboarding.
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The list:
Creature:
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Master of Waves
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Harbinger of the Tides
1 Tidebinder Mage
1 Phantasmal Image
Enchantment:
4 Spreading Seas
4 AEther Vial
Instant:
2 Dismember
1 Vapor Snag
1 Relic of Progenitus
Land:
9 Island
4 Mutavault
3 Cavern of Souls
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Tectonic Edge
3 Tectonic Edge
3 Hurkyl's Recall
2 Gut Shot
2 Spell Pierce
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Negate
1 Chalice of the Void
1 Tidebinder Mage
R1 WB Hatebears w/ Eldrazi and new Thalia W 2-0
This deck is pretty sweet but apparently we're one of its toughest matchups. The mana denial and fetch prevention does little against us. I get Kira + MoW and take g1 easily, G2 my hand gets picked apart by TKS but I draw dismember and take it handily.
R2 Dredge L 0-2
He hit 2 Narcomoeba off a faithless looting dredge to prevent lethal in G1 and I couldn't find any Spreading Seas. G2 I also had no seas, and Conflagrate kept my board down. Never resolved Seas or MoW, and both seem essential.
R3 Jeskai PyroAscension with Thing in the Ice W 2-1
His deck was pretty cool. G1 he got me with Thing in the Ice and doubled lightning bolt. G2 and 3 I countered his spells in a timely fashion and controlled the yard with Relic. Spell Pierce for Anger of the Gods won the match.
R4 Affinity 0-2
G1 I put myself in a great position and have board control on the ground. He draws a Signal Pest and then a Cranial plating to kill me a turn before I kill him. G2 he mulls to 5 but I mull to 4. He has double playing on an ornithopter and I draw 100% lands. At this point I think the tourney is over.
R5 GR Ramp 2-1
Through the Breach Primeval gets me G1. G2 I have counters for Through the Breach and G3 I have counter for Anger and Tectonic Edge to slow down Titan long enough to win.
R6 Goblins 2-0
He gets me to 1 off Goblin Guide beats + Goblin Grenade in G1, but early trades followed by MoW win the match handily.
Going into R6 my tie breakers are 5.5% back. I was sure I'd be ninth. But I somehow jump 2 people and end up 7th. I'm thrilled.
Quarters: Abzan Midrange 2-1
G1 he establishes control and Scooze clocks me. Games 2 and 3 I have hazy memories of. Silvergill Adept is MVP and Seas messes with his mana. He makes a misplay that clinches what would have been a close game, tapping wrong so he can't flashback Souls. MoW is a house, as I'm able to bait his removal on Lords earlier in the games.
Semis: Grixis Midrange. 2-1
One of the better players in the area. G1 he hits me pretty hard. I stumble on mana and he shreds me with Kolaghans Command and snapcasters. Games 2 and 3 are by the book. Relic keeps down Snapcaster and Goblin Dark Dwellers, I pressure him with Islandwalk and Silvergill outpaces him. G3 I draw a few key Lords when we're both hellbent and I get there.
Finals: Jund 2-1
Another one of the best players in the area, one who I've never beaten. G1 is super awkward. He has active Grim Lavamancer and I can never get down 2 Lords and lose to Goyf. Games 2 and 3 Kira does work. She was the unsung hero of the day, disrupting the removal heavy decks. Game 2 is no contest as he mulligans and stumbles. G3 is close but I curve out and keep drawing gas.
I'll try to get back with how I SB'd later, for now I'm tired and need to get ready for GP Portland, a format with a depressing lack of Merfolk.
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1
4 Mutavault
3 Cavern of Souls
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Harbinger of the Tides
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
4 Master of Waves
4 Spreading Seas
2 Spell Pierce
1 Vapor Snag
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Negate
2 Gut Shot
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Tidebinder Mage
2 Tectonic Edge
1 Dispel
1 Pithing Needle
Making room for Tec Edge seems mandatory, so down on Hurkyl's and hope to dodge affinity.
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Edit:
20 lands - Land in Opener: 0 = 4.8% 1 = 19.9% 2 = 32.4% 3 = 27% 4 = 12.4% 5 = 3.1% 6+= 0.4%
19 lands - Land in Opener 0 = 5.8% 1 = 22.1% 2 = 33.2% 3 = 25.4% 4 = 10.7% 5 = 2.5% 6+= 0.3%
The 19 land deck has a 58.6% chance of being in the sweet spot (2 or 3 lands). If we consider 0 and 6+ land hands to be mulligans every time, 5 landers to be mulligans half the time (a bit generous), and 1 landers to be mulligans 62% of the time (we have vial 38.4% of the time we have a 1 lander. Other 1 landers are keepable but ill leave them out) then the 19 land deck mulligans 21.1% of the time.
The 20 land deck is in the sweet spot 59.4% of the time and mulligans 19% of the time.
This data favors 20 lands as being more consistent. This 2% difference really falls in the 1 land hands. I find that on the draw they are sometimes keepable even without vial considering the number of cantrips that are in the deck. However, keeping a 1 lander is a good way to lose an otherwise winnable game.
This doesn't look in depth at hitting land drops for Master of Waves.
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I searched for Gut Shots but couldn’t come up with them, so I sleeve a sb a few cards off from what I’d have liked.
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
3 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Merrow Reejerey
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
4 Master of Waves
4 Spreading Seas
2 Dismember
1 Vapor Snag
12 Island
4 Mutavault
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Cavern of Souls
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
4 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Negate
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Tidebinder Mage
1 Echoing Truth
1 Dismember
1 Vapor Snag
Along with the traditional SB guide, I’m going to do a “what I would’ve liked to have.” Hopefully this will cut down on matchups where I have too many or too few cards to bring in.
Round 1: I lose the die roll and mulligan. My opponent keeps and is on affinity. He puts a plating on a vault skirge, and by the time I can start vialing in Harbingers he has BB to move it to a Signal Pest.
SB for Play: +4 Hurkyl’s, +3 Chalice (play), +1 Echoing Truth, -2 Spreading Seas, -2 Kira, -1Master of Waves, -3 Merrow Reejery.
Game 2: I present a fast clock and pop a Hurkyl’s Recall during my main phase to play around countermagic. I have a second Hurkyl’s but I kill him with Merrow taps and don’t have to use it.
Sb Draw: -3 Chalice of the Void, -2 Master of Waves +3 Merrow Reejery, +1 Dismember, +1 Vapor Snag.
Game 3: Some interesting plays. He goes turn 1 Blinkmoth, Springleaf Drum, go. I play Island, pass. He plays Signal Pest then casts Mox Opal. With Opal on the stack, I Vapor Snag the Signal Pest. If he had a 0-drop creature he’d have played Signal Pest last turn, so this turns off Mox Opal and means he can’t cast his 2-drop for another turn. Because of that tempo, I pull way ahead in the race until he top decks and plays a Vault Skirge. I swing him down to 7 with an array of Islandwalk. He topdecks a Plating, hits me for 10 lifelink. At that point I need Harbinger to live, or any lord/Hurkyl’s to win. I draw a land and can only swing for 16.
SB Notes: I would have liked 2 Gut Shots. Taking out Vault Skirge and Signal Pest with no tempo loss seems huge.
Round 2: My opponent wins the die roll and elects to draw… okay. I t1 a Cursecatcher, he plays a Mountain. I play a Silvergill, he plays a Forest can casts Plated Geopede. I cast Merrow Reejery and swing, noticeably relaxing. My opponent swings, I don’t block, and he casts Harrow. Due to shock and lack of fear, I let it resolve despite having cursecatcher to counter it, immediately realizing that I’ve missed the blowouts. A Swamp and an Island hit, and my opponent casts Tainted Strike with 1 Forest up. Suddenly Geopede is 8 infect… My opponent casts Mutagenic Growth, but taps his Forest to do so! I mize a win out of having blown it. Turns out my opponent is on a casual Flamekin Harbinger/ Kiln Fiend deck. The 0-1 bracket is just full of surprises. Chalice takes G2.
SB notes: Don’t screw it up.
Round 3: Affinity again. G1 I get helped as my opponent mulls to 5 and I’m on the play. I take an extra turn couple of turns to kill in order to play around a topdeck Plating, something I couldn’t do if he had more pressure. Having both dismember and vapor snag lets me kill an Arcbound and then bounce its Modular target. Them’s the nuts.
SB: +4 Hurkyls, +1 Dismember, +1 Vapor Snag. -2 Spreading Seas, -3 Master of Waves, -1 Merrow Reejery. Turn 1 plays are important on the draw, Chalice is bad.
G2:My opponent gets a plating on a turn 2 Etched Champion and I draw no Mutavault or Hurkyl’s.
G3: Merrow Reejery + Harbinger dominates. I keep him on the back foot and win without needing Hurkyl’s. I dismember a Master of Etherium and Mutavault shuts down a Champion.
Match 4: I lose the roll against GR tron. He has a turn 4 Ugin and I don’t last long.
SB: +2 Negate, +1 Vapor Snag, +1 Echoing Truth. -2 Kira, -2 Dismember.
G2 I have a pretty good clock, though a pyroclasm sets me slightly back. I Seas him a few times and he’s slow to hit Tron. By the time he lands a Karn I’ve got lethal.
-1 Aether Vial +1 Tidebinder (just as a bear)
G3 I have multiple Seas and a Ghost Quarter but not the fastest start. He gets to 5 mana the old fashion way with an Oblivion Stone in play, but I make him crack it and still push damage with Mutavaults. He casts a Wurmcoil, I send it back with Merrow+Harbinger and take the match.
SB notes: I would have liked 1 more sb card as Aether Vial isn’t great, especially on the draw, but I don’t think it’s worth cutting something else for. Tec Edge/Seas Claim/Ghost Quarter would be best.
Round 5. My opponent is playing a URg Prowess Delver deck and has beaten 2 Merfolk players on the day. I don’t remember this match precisely, but I recall Harbinger totally trumping Delver and Kira being great. Chalice in Game 2 shuts him down well, though he almost gets there with Stormchaser Mages + Atarka’s Command.
+3 Chalice, +1 Tidebinder Mage. -3 Merrow Reejery, -1 Aether Vial.
SB notes: Not much to report. I really like Kira main for this kind of bolt matchup and don’t bring in Negate as I don’t expect huge impact spells and I have 2 Kira Relic could come in for Snapcaster, but doesn’t seem needed as this is more tempo based.
Top 8 is 2 GR Tron (my opponent), 1 Affinity (my R1 loss), 1 Esper Control, 1 Grixis Midrange, 1 Kiki Chord, and 1 Jund. Eldrazi was in the room but not in huge numbers. I suspect people are trying to GPT with the decks they’ll bring to LA.
I’m the 4 seed and paired against my friend Travis on Grixis. I’ve beaten him before and am not too frightened by the matchup, but he’s a strong player. He’s always switching his list, but I know he plays Creature Jace, Tasigur (which he cut for g2), Pia and Kirin Nalaar, Snap, and Kalitas.
G1. I roll over him. Just curve out with Kira while he stumbles.
-4 Spreading Seas, -1 Vapor Snag, -1 Aether Vial +2 Relic of Progenitus, + 1 Dismember, +1 Echoing Truth, +2 Negate. I would love to bring in Chalice but I know he plays Kolaghan’s Command so it seems pretty bad.
G2. He gets down a turn 2 Jace and values me out. Bolts, terminates, pyroclasms and K. Commands keep my lords down. Kira gets killed by a Jace +1 and Bolt. Kalitas values me out. He has few ways to kill a Master of Waves, but because I don’t have Spreading Seas I never get much devotion. Maybe leave those in? Hard to say.
G3 is the same as g2. He’s able to 1 for 1, 2 for 1 with K. Commands and Snapcasters, and generally keep me down. I don’t think it always plays out like that, and Silvergill is amazing here and I didn’t draw any, but that’s how it goes.
SB Notes: I would have loved a 3rd Relic, as they are excellent in the matchup and I didn’t draw any early enough to be relevant.
All in all, not a horrible showing. I would add the 4th harbinger in the main, cutting the Vapor Snag or maybe moving a Kira to the board. Next weekend there’s a 1k GPT, and I expect my SB to be 4 Hurkyl’s, 3 Chalice, 3 Relic, 2 Negate, 2 Gut Shot, 1 Echoing Truth.
Keep swimmin’
Realize/PDXMTG
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http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/czech-mate-modern-merfolk-sideboard-guide-and-hall-of-fame-vote/
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/czech-mate-merfolk-in-modern/
As he says, your best card against control is Aether Vial because of how it lets you play around Verdict. Commit enough that they have to sweep, but not too much. It's a balance. His plan involves bringing in 4 tectonic edge. I don't necessarily condone that (Scapeshift was bigger back then) but it's certainly strong.
As for the bans, this moderator is completely off base and ham-handed. Discussing Modern without dominant Eldrazi is not speculation. Stoneforge unbanning or Mox Opal being banned are speculation. Eldrazi being handcuffed, one way or another, is just a matter of time, as confirmed by Wizards R&D. Discussing Merfolk after Eldrazi is a pertinent topic for this thread and should be excepted from any "speculation" that would normally be banned in this thread. As the mod said, "This is to prevent every thread devolving into speculation about probable bans/unbans, which detracts from the strategy and deck development most people want to engage in." Preparing for post-Drazi Modern is exactly the sort of deck development that I would expect. If you're going to a tournament and not speculating about what you'll face, you're unprepared. Same with this topic.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/spikes/comments/3qe4kr/merfolk_for_rptq_75_and_sb_guide_modern/
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Harbinger of the Tides
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Master of Waves
1 Phantasmal Image
1 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
4 AEther Vial
4 Spreading Seas
1 Vapor Snag
2 Spell Pierce
Lands
9 Island
4 Mutavault
3 Cavern of Souls
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds
1 Wanderwine Hub
4 Hurkyl's Recall
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Dismember
1 Negate
1 Echoing Truth
1 Engineered Explosives
Edit: Just noticed it's my 4-year cake day. Sweet.
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Sigh. Every time I forget why I leave MTGSalvation. Then I remember. FNM Heroes trying to beat bad players on budget decks. God forbid we get actual analysis into a matchup.