I hope DBS is the scum, because if he isn't and we lynch him, I'm definitely going down tomorrow so we're screwed.
FWIW, I'm a pretty habitual lurker. I wouldn't read too much into me not posting much (or do, I can't stop you).
I think night kill analysis is pretty wifom, but not pointless.
I think it's probably DBS. I don't get massive scum vibes though. There's stuff he's saying that's more just wrong rather than looking like it's an attempt to mislead. And he doesn't really have the attitude of a solo scum who's about to be lynched for losing the game.
Bears, imho, is the other one it could be, and I don't really think he's done anything scummy really either, bar a kind of fluffy push on dbs.
Okay so I can see where there was some confusion here. #99 was made day 1. Trying to make pre-flip association reads is how you get burned. You find a wolf, and then go from there. That's why I reject the notion that we'd be starting over today if Rhand was town because your entire game shouldn't be predicated on the alignment of a single player. You clearly use a player's alignment on the following day to adjust your interpretations of interactions in retrospect.
POE here is the same as a reads list with this few players. You were at the bottom of it, but I'm starting to reconsider given that you're the only one here. To jump to your last point, what you think a wolf should be doing here is not the same as what they are doing. I do not think a wolf that just had their partner dunked on on day 1 is always going to have the motivation to show up and start posting. There are a lot of players that lose WIM and don't do what they need to do to appear wolfy.
With regards to Rhand responding to everyone but you and I, we know that there's at least one town between us. I didn't see him interact with Kami at all either which would mean Rhand didn't interact with at least two town. In a larger game I think you could look into partners avoiding each other and things like that, but I would be surprised if Rhand had more than ten posts. There's not enough of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion.
1. Ah. You misunderstood what I was getting at. I was saying that in a world where you were town, you would make the most sense as the night kill.
2. Same thing here. I presume that Manti is a wolf and try to see if the game state makes sense from that perspective.
Let me go back and read Pod again. Dude made one post today that was okay and the NK would be pretty Level 1, but some times it really is just that obvious.
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
I never liked your response to me in #99 ("You don't need to find two scum today. You only need to find one.").
there is a difference in finding 2 vs 3 scum, and there is also a difference in finding 2 vs 1 scum.
you're looking for a team, not someone who is individually scummy.
I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered, but during the time he was talking he didn't interact with you though he replied others (even Manti).
remember that we are looking for a team. if Rhand flipped town, we would be starting over from scratch by now.
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
out of your recent 'clarifications' you never clarified on this. why did you say I could be town with the way I voted, and talked to me as if Manti was scum?
Looking for explicitly "a team" is bad. You hunt for wolves. Do that well and you naturally get the whole team.
Also can I just point out how scummy "I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered" sounds as you try to say that not interacting with Rhand was scummy. I think Rhand only interacted with Tom once, Manti once, and Pod twice. He didn't interact with Kami, and Kami flipped town so next point.
We would not be starting over today. Pre-association reads are bad. Develop a POE and start lynching the names at the bottom.
I don't understand what you're asking with the last question. I can't find a post where I said you could be town from the way you voted but you're not lock scum for me, just most likely, so of course you could have voted the way you did as town, but I don't see how that's relevant. When did I talk to you as if Manti was scum and what's the relevance? Am I spewing Manti wolf in a game with two wolves and one of them dead?
I wouldn't have blamed you if you lynched me yesterday. It's really more my fault for the inactivity. And I was right on rhand, but that's not really worth anything except to my ego.
Anyway.
The kill looks bad for me and good for bears. There's an argument to be made that he doesn't want me lynched today to keep me round to be lynched tomorrow, but I don't really get why he'd do that. Of course I'm assuming that the kill was done for wagon related reasons rather than something else stupid.
@bears: The overthinking was referring to #74. I don't really get what you saw in that, and I find that kind of trying to see a pattern more indicitive of scum because they have a greater overview of the game (due to knowing who the scum is).
3rd vote logic is actually inverted in this game because it's a -1. He also at that point could have voted me, and instead chose to vote the scum. I mean, Tom, you might be right that they'd be the next two lynches, but I still think you take the two kills n1 and then hope that something changes. What you're saying is a possibility, but I don't think it's likely.
DBS makes most sense as scum, but then a first vote in the wagon is fine, and his reasons are good. After that he mostly seemed to try and hunt the other scum, and it seems a bit crude, so maybe that was an attempt to tie others (me mostly, but also bears) to it.
Since nothing new has happened I guess I'll elaborate on some stuff I said yesterday. I liked this post from Pod specifically. It seems show some genuine critical thinking from him, and it's all reasonable.
I had some mind meld-y moments with Manti today, and I haven't been getting any scum vibes from him. When he's wolfed against the last 5 games or whatever it's been, I normally get some inkling that he's a wolf but I really haven't this game.
Coming back to DBS, I don't think she's been that townie at any point, and she hasn't had any posts that have made me go "that's villagery". As I talked about in previous posts, the thing that makes the least sense of from a scum!DBS is voting first on her partner Rhand, but I think everything else does. With less than 200 posts, I can quickly re-evaluate every day I come into the thread, and I keep settling on DBS being the least townie, and the player that makes the most sense to be the last wolf.
Pod's posts today have been a lot better than DBS's, and after looking over all DBS's posts again, I'm not super impressed.
vote dawningbluesky
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
Dawn are you gonna look at, like, behavior at some point?
Or just sticking with votes?
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
thanks to Pod for noting a point:
#110 Bear didn't want Rhand hammered
#147 talks about voting Rhand but doesn't do anything (kinda confusing if Manti jumped the vote for the cred or not)
I'm sold on Bear's Rhand vote as appeasement and not real. not sure why Pod was left alive though, maybe Kamikaze was a threat as a more-active-than-Pod player.
Fwiw id expect scumrhand to be a bit more aggro, but that's unreliable when he hasn't even been here
Would hammer him or pod if they get another vote
If Rhand isn't posting again this day phase I think I'm willing to put him to rest early.
If I'm partners with Rhand here, I don't say the above and not vote his ass for the credit. I don't even say I'm willing to end the day early period; it's specifically Rhand. What is my motivation as scum to say "I'm willing to maj my partner specifically" and then not vote him for credit knowing he's going to flip wolf?
Dawn are you gonna look at, like, behavior at some point?
Or just sticking with votes?
behavior-wise, I got Rhand and Bear teamwork. don't like his starting D2 with suspecting Pod (signs of NKA), then waffling me, but answered me as if Manti is scum!firmed.
thanks to Pod for noting a point:
#110 Bear didn't want Rhand hammered
#147 talks about voting Rhand but doesn't do anything (kinda confusing if Manti jumped the vote for the cred or not)
I'm sold on Bear's Rhand vote as appeasement and not real. not sure why Pod was left alive though, maybe Kamikaze was a threat as a more-active-than-Pod player.
Rhand and Pod took the lead. both appeared once. out of them both, Pod's actions are leaning towards selfpreservation.
could be Pod? or Rhand was trying reverse psychology. Bear didn't want Rhand hammered?
noted that Rhand hasn't voted anyone yet.
What conclusions can you draw from he above?
Rhand and Bear probable teamwork. though I don't see problems with Bear yet. sooo.. maybe Pod.
I don't want Rhand hammered because I thought a hammer that early would be bad. I think Pod is at L-1 currently, and I don't want Pod to be hammered yet either. I'd rather let this day get closer to deadline before we end it.
So for starters, I didn't want a hammer at that point in the game period. I said something similar about Pod. It had nothing to do with Rhand, and was related to whoever was at L-1 at the time.
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
And to address the first part of your reply, it makes little sense to make that nightkill from my perspective because it leaves me as the only unconfirmed off of a scum wagon. If I was scum I almost always kill you because of the unconfirmed players, you were the first voter on Rhand's wagon (or rather anyone that voted Rhand before you changed their vote before changing back). That's actually a good point though. Let me see how many votes were on Rhand when you voted him.
Yeah okay. Tom voted Rhand, and then switched off. You were the next voter on him. So you make the most sense as a night kill from almost everyone's perspective. Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you.
I've been trying to understand the motivation for the night kill. The Level 1 approach is Pod because Kamikaze suspected Pod and voted pod at the end of the day. But let's ignore that for now.
only you and Kami were on the counterwagon. this nightkill would detract from you, or implicate you.
I'm kind of thinking that the last wolf is just Dawning. The Kami night kill makes the most sense because it kills one of the two players suspecting him while leaving Manti and myself as somewhat viable mislynches.
why does this nightkill make Manti a viable mislynch? you lost me there.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.
vote Pod360
I'll think about this more tomorrow before EOD but this is where I'm at now.
Why isn't it ever Chromanticore in your mind?
Huh. Why would they always kill off wagon?
POE here is the same as a reads list with this few players. You were at the bottom of it, but I'm starting to reconsider given that you're the only one here. To jump to your last point, what you think a wolf should be doing here is not the same as what they are doing. I do not think a wolf that just had their partner dunked on on day 1 is always going to have the motivation to show up and start posting. There are a lot of players that lose WIM and don't do what they need to do to appear wolfy.
With regards to Rhand responding to everyone but you and I, we know that there's at least one town between us. I didn't see him interact with Kami at all either which would mean Rhand didn't interact with at least two town. In a larger game I think you could look into partners avoiding each other and things like that, but I would be surprised if Rhand had more than ten posts. There's not enough of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusion.
1. Ah. You misunderstood what I was getting at. I was saying that in a world where you were town, you would make the most sense as the night kill.
2. Same thing here. I presume that Manti is a wolf and try to see if the game state makes sense from that perspective.
Let me go back and read Pod again. Dude made one post today that was okay and the NK would be pretty Level 1, but some times it really is just that obvious.
Looking for explicitly "a team" is bad. You hunt for wolves. Do that well and you naturally get the whole team.
Also can I just point out how scummy "I don't have any interaction with Rhand as he was busy by the time I entered" sounds as you try to say that not interacting with Rhand was scummy. I think Rhand only interacted with Tom once, Manti once, and Pod twice. He didn't interact with Kami, and Kami flipped town so next point.
We would not be starting over today. Pre-association reads are bad. Develop a POE and start lynching the names at the bottom.
I don't understand what you're asking with the last question. I can't find a post where I said you could be town from the way you voted but you're not lock scum for me, just most likely, so of course you could have voted the way you did as town, but I don't see how that's relevant. When did I talk to you as if Manti was scum and what's the relevance? Am I spewing Manti wolf in a game with two wolves and one of them dead?
I had some mind meld-y moments with Manti today, and I haven't been getting any scum vibes from him. When he's wolfed against the last 5 games or whatever it's been, I normally get some inkling that he's a wolf but I really haven't this game.
Coming back to DBS, I don't think she's been that townie at any point, and she hasn't had any posts that have made me go "that's villagery". As I talked about in previous posts, the thing that makes the least sense of from a scum!DBS is voting first on her partner Rhand, but I think everything else does. With less than 200 posts, I can quickly re-evaluate every day I come into the thread, and I keep settling on DBS being the least townie, and the player that makes the most sense to be the last wolf.
vote dawningbluesky
Spent a considerable amount of time talking about the difficulties they were going to have 2 scum versus 3, and their entire reasoning for voting Rhand was the self-vote. Their vote on me is because I didn't vote Rhand. I don't think they've done any evaluation of play the entire game.
If I'm partners with Rhand here, I don't say the above and not vote his ass for the credit. I don't even say I'm willing to end the day early period; it's specifically Rhand. What is my motivation as scum to say "I'm willing to maj my partner specifically" and then not vote him for credit knowing he's going to flip wolf?
So for starters, I didn't want a hammer at that point in the game period. I said something similar about Pod. It had nothing to do with Rhand, and was related to whoever was at L-1 at the time.
Yeah okay. Tom voted Rhand, and then switched off. You were the next voter on him. So you make the most sense as a night kill from almost everyone's perspective. Manti might not kill you because he thinks he can dunk on you.
In a vacuum Manti was lower in the POE than both Kami and myself more than likely, and he was also the third one on the wagon. It would make sense from a scum perspective to leave him alive as a potential mislynch.