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  • 1

    posted a message on Price ceiling on modern masters
    Just because you bought the product doesn't mean you have to get all personal. My initial statement was QUITE fair - I even pointed out that I don't have any indicators to lead me to any statements about supply of product. My only statement was that people were putting themselves at a huge risk for disappointment by paying so much for this product. This is a FORUM, man. You don't see how I could put that out there for public consumption? Seriously? You're the one deciding that I think packs will be valued somewhere between 6.99 and 10$ simply because you didn't understand my initial statement and even after I clarified, are still trying to push that. The argument is quite simple - people paying 2x more than MSRP (there's even talk of 3x more on other forums) is increasing the odds you don't hit EV and increasing the odds for disappointment. There's a lot of hype and a lot of people spending a lot of money on something they know very little about. Putting a completely fair word of caution out there is something somebody should be doing right now.

    I hate to do this because I really hate when it's done but here is what you've done through your last posts:
    1. Constructed a strawman argument.
    To elaborate: You're asking me to give a reason why I think packs will have value X. I'm NOT saying that and never have. I'm saying the probability declines as X increases.
    2. Begged the question.
    Specifically, see paragraph 1 of your recent post.
    3. Ad Hominen'd me.
    It's tame but see paragraph 3.



    More importantly than any of that -
    My initial statement was simply a word of caution. It was not an absolutist statement or prediction or evaluation of value. I will not conform to your demands to make it a numbers argument - it doesn't require it. It is supported by very simple and sound logic and I continue to stand by the assessment - people who are paying a lot for this product are putting themselves in a position of risk.

    I think you are still unable to see what I'm saying clearly so here: The relationship is monotonic increasing - NOT black and white. Consider an upward sloping linear line which represents cost of a box. As you move to the right, the probability of that line being above the EV line (currently not drawn bc it's unknown) decreases at an increasing rate. You keep asking for me to quantify this when it doesn't need to be. When I refuse to quantify you try to make it black and white - it is not that either. Would you pay 500$ for a box of MM? Probably not, but why? Because risk, as you percieve it, is probably too high at that price point. You're asking me to quantify the risk equation and that's impossible. It doesn't invalidate my point or validate yours to ask me something that's impossible.


    ps: Your assessment of comparing MM to Zendikar is still completely faulty. I'm not sure why you're even bothering on that point, but ok.
    pps: I think you might want to take internet forums a little less seriously.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • 1

    posted a message on [???] You make the card 4 week 6
    lol deciding what is best/worst..
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • 1

    posted a message on [[Official]] Shuffling: The Truth and Maths (Primer)


    ^ experiment results

    Pretty interesting overall - looks relatively equal across the board. I would consider, just from looking at this, that mashing and riffling are probably about the same or at least close enough to not matter.

    I'll probably just change my routine to do a quick pile to count the deck and then mash 10 and go. Seems fast and at the end of it all, you're going to be averaging 2 bad pockets per shuffle - you just have to hope your opponent doesn't cut to them.


    Also did a quick test of Cockatrice and while the sample size was small, it seemed equal.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • 2

    posted a message on [[Official]] [GTC] Running Tally of highest priced cards. Updated: 11/20/14
    Muuuch lower power level. The rares are just terrible in terms of playability. And the mythics are so narrow..
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • 1

    posted a message on Shocklands in DGM
    To be honest, the prices on the shocks have already hit bottom and are now rising. I think the 2.4 or so shocks we'll see in each box of DGM won't be enough downward pressure to bring prices down further. If anything it will just slow the rise.

    With a growing player base and shocks being used in standard for 1.5 more years + modern.. they might hit the high teens by this time next year.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
  • 1

    posted a message on [DGM] Mythic Land
    Dragon's Maze
    Legendary Land
    T: Add 1 of any color to your mana pool.
    When Dragon's Maze enters the battlefield under your control, any opponent may search your hand and library for a copy of Dragon's Maze. If a copy is found, you lose the game.

    Having long understood the nature of his foes, Niv-Mizzet formed the leylines with a singular purpose - to provide for them a resource so enticing that they would trade knowledge for power.
    Posted in: Speculation
  • 1

    posted a message on Is Gatecrash disappointing so far?
    All it takes is a common or uncommon to warp the standard format. I'm hoping we see a few and it shakes up standard. Come on 2 mana ramp spell!!!
    Posted in: New Card Discussion
  • 2

    posted a message on [[GTC]] Glaring Spotlight
    I think Geist will be fine
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • 1

    posted a message on FNM Problems :/
    I like how our store changed it.. instead of top 4 getting all the winnings,
    4-0 gets 12 packs
    3-0-1 gets 9
    3-0 gets 6

    There's only 4 rounds.
    This way with a big turn out (we get like 40-50), there's a big group of people winning. You see a lot more variety in who's placing.
    Posted in: Magic General
  • 2

    posted a message on How to Deal with Grossly Inadequate Shipping
    The card made it to you safely so I cannot see any reason for a complaint. Complaints are for real reasons - product took too long, was damaged, etc. etc. The seller took a gamble and maybe you should tell him such, but a complaint is hardly justified.

    what kind/or if I should ask for any kind of compensation


    /no. Compensation for WHAT? You got exactly what you paid for.

    The card is: sleeved, taped securely to cardboard, and arrived to you undamaged. A lot of sellers use cardboard instead of toploaders (I use toploaders personally) and sellers assume 100% of the risk on ebay and with mailing. You, as a buyer, took zero risk and have all the recourse. You weren't shorted anything. Being angry and wanting compensation strikes me as ridiculous in this scenario.

    As an aside, you might not have been offered any other type of shipping but that is also irrelevant - you click buy knowing the terms of shipping.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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