I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
It does seems like, if her role had been stripped, that she would have been told though. You don't normally lose your abiliites but still think you have them. And she would have said something, I assume.
Maybe if it all happened instantaneously - i.e. they target, find her role, and have the option to use it right then. But this theory allows that they could have chosen to shoot someone else. And left her alive with no ability and potentially having to explain.
Could have been a "copy" effect, as opposed to a straight steal? Someone has already claimed something like that?
Ah.
If the daykiller actually did steal Gemma's role, my guess is that it happened as an effect of the kill and they went in blind. I can't imagine they would have had the option to choose someone else.
I mean it's been said, but the issue is not whether or not the RB/No kill is a slam dunk against fulcrum, but whether it ought to have raised your suspicions in some way that should have been evident in your posting.
But there's nothing there that I see. You ought to have, at the very least, seemed more interested in this?
Are you ready for some wild and baseless spec? Because I sure do love me some wild and baseless spec.
Here goes.
What if there is no day-killer?
Or
What if Gemma herself was the Day-killer?
This wild and baseless spec brought to you courtesy of this Mod. announcement:
A burst of light that comes from the sun itself suddenly envelops Gemma. Gemma screams as the light burns here leaving nothing behind but Ash. As the town settles down and examines the body they find that they cannot tell who Gemma was. However after searching her place they do find evidence that tells the examiners that she was indeed town.
Gemma has been killed they were Aurora - Town.
And the simple fact that it seems a fairly large coincidence that Aurora - you know, the Sun - was burned away by a burst of light that came from...the Sun.
The way this spec works is one of two things:
(1) Gemma had some kind of self-destruct role, which died upon being targeted. Someone targeted her during the day, and poof. That seems like a pretty bad role, but maybe she had something good to go along with it?
(2) Gemma had a day-kill, attempted to use it, and it turned on her. Like the target reflected it, or something. Paranoid Gun-Owner type thing?
I scanned Gemma's posts for hints of anything along these lines, just to see. Found this:
Quote from Gemma »
as is I just wish I had a dayvig with his name on it
and that was re:Tom, fairly early on.
Also these:
i hope there's somehow a mafia vig so we can both die together tonight babe
i spent all day trying to be super town so that mafia would have to kill me and now we have like a hundred roles out and i'm never going to die literally everything i did all day was pointless
Which actually seems to hint at some kind of a Vengeful role? Maybe? Not sure how a Vengeful role fits into this.
I mean, scum Day-kill is still the simplest explanation. But, I was thinking....
I had some similar thoughts about this on D2, mostly because of how suddenly emotional/erratic Gemma's posts became that RL day shortly before D_V posted her death, but I concluded it was a little too far-fetched.
I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
I already mentioned the Rhand interactions at EoD yesterday. I really thought an Rhand/KCC pairing made sense earlier in the game, but I don't think there is room for her there now as I don't think she and Keldeo are aligned. Looking back, I think Keldeo/Rhand makes a lot of sense because of things Keldeo has said. KCC/Rhand made a lot of sense because of things Rhand has said. Now I think that was probably pocketing on Rhand's part.
KCC and Axelrod have already nailed it... Keldeo not coming out and claiming the RB on fulcrum D2 is suspect as ****. Also, he has also never voted or pressured her, despite actually voicing earlier in the game (and then pointing it out again today) that Last didn't stop the N1 kill, which is even worse. Not to mention he has claimed two day RB's when there are already multiple other day abilities claimed/revealed (and 3 RB's to boot). We have multiple night investigative abilities claimed, and also Vaimes's 1-shot track if that's legit, as well as other night-activated RB's. I'm having a hard time believing there are this many day abilities that dodge ALL these night actions.
There is room for fulcrum, Silver, Proph or Asta on that team.
I'm town; vezok is town.
KCC and Axelrod are most likely town if Keldeo is scum. vezok's 3576 is right about Rhand's reads list, and I could see Axel being scum if I'm wrong about Keldeo, but he is definitely not scum with both Keldeo/Rhand.
Last has been a gut town read all game. He *might* make sense as a neutral for the whole accusing people of "playing 3p to the thread" thing, but meh.
I'm pretty sure Vaimes and/or Killjoy can only be scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/KJ. That is a deep, deep corner case. Basically, /barn vezok's 3629.
fulcrum being scum here makes sense. In this world, she probably did perform a kill that failed on N1, and Keldeo is claiming potential kill stoppage + setting up to bus her if necessary for monumental towncred, but he isn't going to push it unless it becomes obvious she's going to get lynched. The scum probably do believe Last's ability prevented the kill, but Keldeo wants to subtlely discount Last's role/towncred with the whole "pretty sure he didn't stop the kill" thing. Also, look who fulcrum isn't voting right now despite "understanding" the points against him (hint: it's Keldeo).
Silver and Proph fit mechanically. Proph is a huge question mark (plus another piece in the mess of claimed/verified RB roles), and Silver could just be flat-out lying to clear Keldeo of killing Gemma (or maybe Keldeo hasn't targeted Gemma, and Silver just knows it).
I don't think Asta is scum, but he simply isn't cleared and there is no reason why he can't be scum with these players. And the supposed mod confirmation of my protect is weird.
We are supposedly going to be in Fall tonight, yes? So I am learning "names of abilities" that target a player. This is not amazing. For that reason, it is not ridiculous to use this just in an attempt to "confirm" someone is targeting someone else. But who are we confirming here? The existence of the Orbs isn't in dispute at this point (well, I guess technically we have only had one orb confirmed, but the claim is such that Proph could be made to prove it at literally any time, so I'm not doubting the existence of other color orbs either. What they actually do is something else, I guess.
So is that what this is, trying to prove that the Yellow Orb does what Proph said? I'm not really sure that's worth it either. Especially the part where he's using up one of his limited "Day" shots to give me a Yellow Orb, which seems like the most useless one. He pretty much ought to be giving out the Blue Orbs to people he thinks are Town and the Green ones to people he thinks are scum. And I think Orange ones to people he thinks are Town too. And the utility of that is almost completely nullified if it's always announced who has them?
Eh. I do not have the brainpower for this right now. My attitude these days seems to be: see if I am alive tomorrow, then do stuff.
I'm inclined to be against this plan. We don't know how many day shots Proph has left, if he even does have any left, and I agree the yellow orb seems to be the worst one.
It's not an inconsistency. The lynch being frozen on Mind is a byproduct of the whole deal. Bad gamestates don't just happen, they're a result of the collective process of the players in the game.
The game is where it is because Mind should have been lynched a week ago.
KCC/Mindreaver W/V
I also feel like she spent most of D1 going after Mindreaver until she got run up.
Ehhhh.... KCC is actually the one thing that sows just a bit of doubt in my "virtual lock" read on Rhand/Keldeo.
She had a couple posts D1 that solidly pointed to a W/V pairing (I'll dig them up in a few... her ISO is much easier to parse), and she also looks pretty bad with an Rhand scum flip.
KillJoy:
He’s very easy to read as town, and this is town!him.
I wonder if he can mimick his towngame as scum. I haven’t seen him as scum in a loooong time. But I doubt he can. His towngame is extremely pure.
Verdict: town
I think KJ is scum. After all the times he was wrong about my alignment, I should be at least in his lean reads.
As town I always saw him evolve the read at least. Now he just throws me in his mafia reads.
I think he sees me as an easy “scumread“ because I always catch flak early game.
vote Killjoy
Rhand, can you walk me through what changed between these posts?
You said earlier that you were wondering if Killjoy was just faking the tunnel to have an excuse to park on you. But he moved his vote to Axel.
Is your movement off him purely because your TRs were calling your interactions v/v? Do you have any thoughts on his more recent posting? I get you also want to reread the top "wagons," but I want to get into your head here.
@Rhand, you haven't really talked about Silver since responding to that post Silver made about your early post, which was about his approach from very early on. Does this read still hold up to you - in other words, has your townread been reaffirmed or eroded by stuff he's done? His approach to you no longer seems to be "your posts feel weird," given that he fleshed out his read on you more later.
The read became less strong, but I still think he's town. It's very common to enter a Rhand tunnel early and never leave it.
It's something in the way my posts sound. I wish I knew what it was so I would get mislynched less often as town.
Also, Rhand, tell me about what distinguished Silver's approach to you from Killjoy's approach in your mind. You seemed to have the "he could be tunneling me" line of thought toward both of them, but also scumread KJ for not reevaluating on it, and townread Silver when Silver didn't reevaluate on it either?
I don't fully remember why as this was like a month and a half ago, but I have in my notes from around the time you posted these that they were total softball questions (I'm guessing it's because Rhand had already explained it).
@ tom, I think based on Rhand's general cadence that he is just the type of person who phrases things in a way that makes him seem extremely sure, regardless of alignment. There's a lot of rhetoric like "x would never do this as y alignment" or "this world would be completely unreasonable" both in his posting here and in this one post he quoted to I think dkings that was from a previous game.
Does this affect your Rhand/KJ aligned read? It makes me a little skeptical... well, I guess it would point more in the direction of Rhand v/KJ w being possible, where Rhand just sounds like he is not evaluating because that's how he phrases things, and KJ is faking this Rhand tunnel that Rhand is talking about, but I don't really think KJ is a wolf.
Alternatively/in addition, could you just, like, talk for a bit about why you don't think that it is a w/v world where one of them is faking the tunnel? I don't think it's /that/ hard to fake OMGUS tunneling a villager as a wolf. Rhand spent a lot of time talking about KJ being a wolf and then just went off of him for what seems to me like kind of a thin reason, which doesn't make a ton of sense to me as either alignment really.
You then made this post defending Rhand before he even answered you about KJ, meaning you knew the answer to the question you asked.
There are a few more recent posts that pinged me as well, but you have a *****load of posts and I don't have time to ISO you at the moment.
Rhand at L-2. Would prefer for no maj, though I will probably miss deadline. Do you have any last words or a final legacy, Rhand?
And mmmm. I'm kind of voting because we need to get maj, but something that sticks out to me is like, the backtracking about how his role works when people were expressing skepticism about using an ability the same night as he backed it up (I think it was mainly Axel? which could be a point against Axel/Rhand w/w, but Axel probably needs to bury him as his partner here anyway because he's the CW.)
Why in the world would you want to no lynch again? And why the contradiction in "would prefer no maj" immediately followed by "because we need to get to maj"? *Side note: If Rhand/Keldeo are indeed W/W, Axel is town.
- Keldeo has asked a LOT of players for their thoughts on Rhand over the course of the game... seems like he was trying to stay ahead of the curve in case bussing became necessary. Which, frankly, aligns with his self-meta on bussing.
- The whole thing about Rhand not being native English and Keldeo being wordy/eloquent looks like a super safe interaction to ensure they talk TO each other and not just ABOUT each other.
- Rhand going after Keldeo for "not taking hard stances" seems like another safe buddy attack... it's easy to defend against "because style/personality", plus lots of players in this game haven't been taking many hard stances, presumably because of the disconnect and activity levels the holidays have caused.
LOL well I'll vote to Rhand when we're ready to end the day.
I want to dig up some stuff first though... I haven't taken many notes since D1, but Keldeo is a virtual lock for scum with Rhand based on several defensive posts. Plus he's trying to direct night actions, so yeah.
Tinfoil theory: Rhand wanted Nacho dead to try to take the season-switching ability, which means the daykill is a summer seasonal and they were hoping to bring it back around again ASAP.
Feels like a specifically Titania/Oberon action tbh but who knows? Anyways, no, I've not been labelled Fairy. Dunno what to think about that.
Hades, huh. Corpse mangling sounds like it could be useful for town or scum. Not sure where to fall there.
Following the possibility of an Axelrod train and I'm fine with it. I'll see where things head to see if it's necessary to jump off. Rhand is still a perfectly solid lynch at this juncture.
This is so weird. Also, more below on the Fairy thing.
Rhand's claim itself is pretty NAI. Like you said, it would be a useful role for either alignment.
@Asta
I mean I don't hate that post, but "if Keldeo gets the lynch, we can better dissect the wagon!" holds true for any wagon
anyways I like when you are more aggressive
Idk how it changes now, but back before when Keldeo had heat, it felt like nobody was defending him
I had also noticed that no one appears to be defending Keldeo at all, which is probably a thing.
My game state view right now is:
Neutral: Vaimes
mafia: Keldeo, Axel, ?? (? = Proph/Silver/KJ/Last)
town: everyone else
Vaimes - Neutral
Proph - Neutral
1 or 2 other neutrals
No scumteam
That's why this game is such an absolute PitA
There's something I don't like about this... it could be tongue-in-cheek, but there is nothing in the post that indicates it is and not only do we know from the game rules that the scumteam has day chat, but it's been discussed in-game multiple times. This feels really disingenious.
I *AM* protecting you, but there is definitely nothing in my role PM about mod confirmation of my ability. I just double-checked to make sure I didn't miss it. Is this a specific Oberon/Titania interaction? Can you provide some more clarify on what you were told?
So, per the rules of the game, I'm gonna paraphrase the message because direct quoting/screenshotting is a modkillable offense!
A Fairy showed up and told me Queen Titania is going to protect me and I shouldn't fear death.
This is super weird, there is nothing in my role PM about this. Do you have some kind of ascetic ability?
@Everyone, did anyone target Asta with some kind of ability that made him an ascetic?
Or is this a Titania/Oberon interaction? Like I wonder if you target me with something if I will receive a similar notification?
And another question: Do you have "Fairy" in your role name?
I’m thinking of the scenario where both me and Vaimes are town.
I could dig up powerful skills we lost, Pass them to Vaimes for bulletproof vests and Dkings keeps bodyguarding Vaimes.
The only way for scum to interfere with that is get rid of dkings, then Vaimes. By then I have enough bulletproof vests to never die.
Meanwhile Vaimes has an arsenal of useful stuff that he can use. He can even block the kill on dkings one Night with tom’s ability.
And that is with the assumption there are no protectives unclaimed, which would make it even more OP.
I mean maybe the mod didn’t think about all possible scenarios, but I severely doubt this combo exists.
I'm pretty sure Vaimes said he can only trade each item once?
Regarding Rhand and his claim... he pushed Nacho at EoD on D1 *and* wanted him dead D2. Considering Nacho claimed vanilla after changing the season on D1, I don't see any scum motivation in pushing him when he presumably didn't have an ability to copy? If anything, I would think Rhand would have jumped on me D1 if he was scum.
Some of Axel's thingy felt more like he was writing it for us instead of the mod, if that makes sense.
[snip]
The repeated "as far as I know"s are weird? Like, this is a monologue to DV. He knows it's from what Axel knows. And if we don't have a plan, as far as he knew, then why didn't he try to find out? If I was monologueing there, I would have been like "need to look through the eod/Vaimes posts to see if there was a plan" not just randomly assume something. We had a multi day Night phase, why not use that time to figure it out if you don't know? "It is probably better than a random shot though," is this summation to the paragraph that isn't really needed? Feels like it was just put in there to help justify himself now. Also, why is it "as far as /we/ know." Who's we? He's just talking to himself and DV, and DV can't be included in that we. And what's with the "the Town"? The issue is figuring out whether individual townies or scum as a group would target someone, looking at who Town as a group might target doesn't make sense. And why didn't he talk about the obvious use of his powers, which is to target someone kind of random, and then keep it in his pocket later if someone claims to have targeted them when no one did?
I kind of like the typo in the second to last line, makes it less likely than he ran this by a scumteam, probably.
I don't really know Axel well enough to say this is definitely scummy for him. It just feels weird and manipulative.
Specifically, I very much agree that Axel's post looks like it was written specifically for him to post in this thread, which completely negates any sort of claim of genuineness contained within.
This is where I'm at as well. I mentioned this before, but it reminded me of another game I went back and checked. In summary: Huntzilla and I were teammates in Big Red Button, and he posted this huge rant about Seppel always thinking he's scum in the lynch QT that I cited in the game thread as a reason I thought he was town. Then he went and actually posted the rant ITT. It was so manufactured and manipulative that I could not believe the town just ignored it. Axel's few posts since have also kinda felt like he's waiting for heat to die down.
And then there is the weird "Fairy" thing someone pointed out. My role name does not have "Fairy" in it, but my character is most certainly a fairy. Interested to hear from Asta on this as well.
Vote Axelrod
Also, an aside: I skipped over the Last/KCC slapfight. Is it worth my time to actually read it?
@Grape
You can either assume mafia chose to not use their kp n1, or someone stopped it, I wanna believe it was me, but there are some inconsistences with Gemma dying so idk
Is it possible the scum team used the day kill in lieu of a night kill?
These two posts definitely don’t indicate an optional double-vote:
If the daykiller actually did steal Gemma's role, my guess is that it happened as an effect of the kill and they went in blind. I can't imagine they would have had the option to choose someone else.
Also,
It's not.
I had some similar thoughts about this on D2, mostly because of how suddenly emotional/erratic Gemma's posts became that RL day shortly before D_V posted her death, but I concluded it was a little too far-fetched.
I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
Yeah I'm pretty much locked in on him here.
I already mentioned the Rhand interactions at EoD yesterday. I really thought an Rhand/KCC pairing made sense earlier in the game, but I don't think there is room for her there now as I don't think she and Keldeo are aligned. Looking back, I think Keldeo/Rhand makes a lot of sense because of things Keldeo has said. KCC/Rhand made a lot of sense because of things Rhand has said. Now I think that was probably pocketing on Rhand's part.
KCC and Axelrod have already nailed it... Keldeo not coming out and claiming the RB on fulcrum D2 is suspect as ****. Also, he has also never voted or pressured her, despite actually voicing earlier in the game (and then pointing it out again today) that Last didn't stop the N1 kill, which is even worse. Not to mention he has claimed two day RB's when there are already multiple other day abilities claimed/revealed (and 3 RB's to boot). We have multiple night investigative abilities claimed, and also Vaimes's 1-shot track if that's legit, as well as other night-activated RB's. I'm having a hard time believing there are this many day abilities that dodge ALL these night actions.
There is room for fulcrum, Silver, Proph or Asta on that team.
I'm town; vezok is town.
KCC and Axelrod are most likely town if Keldeo is scum. vezok's 3576 is right about Rhand's reads list, and I could see Axel being scum if I'm wrong about Keldeo, but he is definitely not scum with both Keldeo/Rhand.
Last has been a gut town read all game. He *might* make sense as a neutral for the whole accusing people of "playing 3p to the thread" thing, but meh.
I'm pretty sure Vaimes and/or Killjoy can only be scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/KJ. That is a deep, deep corner case. Basically, /barn vezok's 3629.
fulcrum being scum here makes sense. In this world, she probably did perform a kill that failed on N1, and Keldeo is claiming potential kill stoppage + setting up to bus her if necessary for monumental towncred, but he isn't going to push it unless it becomes obvious she's going to get lynched. The scum probably do believe Last's ability prevented the kill, but Keldeo wants to subtlely discount Last's role/towncred with the whole "pretty sure he didn't stop the kill" thing. Also, look who fulcrum isn't voting right now despite "understanding" the points against him (hint: it's Keldeo).
Silver and Proph fit mechanically. Proph is a huge question mark (plus another piece in the mess of claimed/verified RB roles), and Silver could just be flat-out lying to clear Keldeo of killing Gemma (or maybe Keldeo hasn't targeted Gemma, and Silver just knows it).
I don't think Asta is scum, but he simply isn't cleared and there is no reason why he can't be scum with these players. And the supposed mod confirmation of my protect is weird.
I guess I'll spend some time at night trying to figure out which of KCC/Keldeo is more likely to be Rhand's teammate.
If he's actually a neutral and is trolling us about being scum, I'll chuckle
I'm inclined to be against this plan. We don't know how many day shots Proph has left, if he even does have any left, and I agree the yellow orb seems to be the worst one.
Well, I've got this nugget from one of my own earlier posts:
I also feel like she spent most of D1 going after Mindreaver until she got run up.
Ehhhh.... KCC is actually the one thing that sows just a bit of doubt in my "virtual lock" read on Rhand/Keldeo.
She had a couple posts D1 that solidly pointed to a W/V pairing (I'll dig them up in a few... her ISO is much easier to parse), and she also looks pretty bad with an Rhand scum flip.
I have this from D1 specifically noted:
I don't fully remember why as this was like a month and a half ago, but I have in my notes from around the time you posted these that they were total softball questions (I'm guessing it's because Rhand had already explained it).
You then made this post defending Rhand before he even answered you about KJ, meaning you knew the answer to the question you asked.
There are a few more recent posts that pinged me as well, but you have a *****load of posts and I don't have time to ISO you at the moment.
A couple other things, too...
Why in the world would you want to no lynch again? And why the contradiction in "would prefer no maj" immediately followed by "because we need to get to maj"?
*Side note: If Rhand/Keldeo are indeed W/W, Axel is town.
- Keldeo has asked a LOT of players for their thoughts on Rhand over the course of the game... seems like he was trying to stay ahead of the curve in case bussing became necessary. Which, frankly, aligns with his self-meta on bussing.
- The whole thing about Rhand not being native English and Keldeo being wordy/eloquent looks like a super safe interaction to ensure they talk TO each other and not just ABOUT each other.
- Rhand going after Keldeo for "not taking hard stances" seems like another safe buddy attack... it's easy to defend against "because style/personality", plus lots of players in this game haven't been taking many hard stances, presumably because of the disconnect and activity levels the holidays have caused.
I want to dig up some stuff first though... I haven't taken many notes since D1, but Keldeo is a virtual lock for scum with Rhand based on several defensive posts. Plus he's trying to direct night actions, so yeah.
Tinfoil theory: Rhand wanted Nacho dead to try to take the season-switching ability, which means the daykill is a summer seasonal and they were hoping to bring it back around again ASAP.
I found it. It's pretty clear.
---------------------------------
This is so weird. Also, more below on the Fairy thing.
Rhand's claim itself is pretty NAI. Like you said, it would be a useful role for either alignment.
Keldeo, it was you who pointed out the "Fairy" part of Axel's claim, right? Will you tell us your character name?
I had also noticed that no one appears to be defending Keldeo at all, which is probably a thing.
Since they are supposedly various colors, that's probably not the case.
Although... did Nacho ever actually confirm what color the orb he received was?
There's something I don't like about this... it could be tongue-in-cheek, but there is nothing in the post that indicates it is and not only do we know from the game rules that the scumteam has day chat, but it's been discussed in-game multiple times. This feels really disingenious.
This is super weird, there is nothing in my role PM about this. Do you have some kind of ascetic ability?
@Everyone, did anyone target Asta with some kind of ability that made him an ascetic?
Or is this a Titania/Oberon interaction? Like I wonder if you target me with something if I will receive a similar notification?
And another question: Do you have "Fairy" in your role name?
I'm pretty sure Vaimes said he can only trade each item once?
Regarding Rhand and his claim... he pushed Nacho at EoD on D1 *and* wanted him dead D2. Considering Nacho claimed vanilla after changing the season on D1, I don't see any scum motivation in pushing him when he presumably didn't have an ability to copy? If anything, I would think Rhand would have jumped on me D1 if he was scum.
And, finally...
This is where I'm at as well. I mentioned this before, but it reminded me of another game I went back and checked. In summary: Huntzilla and I were teammates in Big Red Button, and he posted this huge rant about Seppel always thinking he's scum in the lynch QT that I cited in the game thread as a reason I thought he was town. Then he went and actually posted the rant ITT. It was so manufactured and manipulative that I could not believe the town just ignored it. Axel's few posts since have also kinda felt like he's waiting for heat to die down.
And then there is the weird "Fairy" thing someone pointed out. My role name does not have "Fairy" in it, but my character is most certainly a fairy. Interested to hear from Asta on this as well.
Vote Axelrod
Also, an aside: I skipped over the Last/KCC slapfight. Is it worth my time to actually read it?
Is it possible the scum team used the day kill in lieu of a night kill?
I did not receive an orb