Quote from dkingsland967I play at two LGSs, and have a good relationship with the owner of one of them. This is what he told me directly:
- There will be an initial print run, and a follow-up print run. No one knows the size and ship date of the follow-up run yet. If distributors know then they've been told to keep it under wraps. My guess is that GP Vegas will have an impact on this, because it will cut into the second run by a percentage based on how many players show up. However, that part is just a guess and I have no factual info to back that up.
- In concert with what some others have said, WotC guaranteed every WPN store 18 boxes. Anything above and beyond that is up to distributors, and from what he said is mostly determined by how much product the shop normally purchases. The particular store I'm referring to is getting 50 boxes for the June 7 release date. They are pre-selling 30 and saving the other 20 for drafting.
- Interestingly, that store is having a hard time getting pre-orders for $225/box. The other store I frequent (where I pre-ordered my two boxes) did theirs for $185/box and all were accounted for weeks ago.
I personally am in agreement with some of the others who have expressed belief that this set will be nowhere near as scarce as some doom-and-gloom posters here have made it out to be over the past two months. As far as prices go, here are my predictions:
- We will see some minor movement here and there,, but we won't really start to see prices shift until GP Vegas provides a massive influx of singles to the market.
- Commons and uncommons will see a hit of as much as 50%.
- The casual/EDH rares under $10 will see the biggest price drop of anything
- The high-dollar rares kept at rare, like Cryptic Command and Doubling Season, will see a significant drop.
- I don't think there will be much movement in the tournament playable rares in the $5-15 range (including Aether Vial).
- Most of the mythics will see a minor drop, but for the most part will hold 85-90% of their value.
- Exception to the above: the Swords. I think a large number of people are going to prefer the new art to the old, and considering both versions are the modern card type, I could see a major drop in the Darksteel versions while the MM versions actually end up being worth 20-30% more in the long run.
This is an excellent and well-reasoned post. Thank you for considering the information we have (even though it is rather sparse) and remaining logical in the face of so much hype and panic.
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MMA > MM17 > EMA > MM15 = A25 > free boxes of IMA > dog feces on my shoe > paying money for IMA
IMO, if this set was at the $10 price point of the past sets since MMA, we would be talking about it lagging just a little behind the original for the best Masters set ever.
With the price increase, I think it will end up placing a little ahead or a little behind Eternal Masters, depending on where prices settle in 6 months.
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People remember MM17 very fondly, but it was mostly a bust at the common/uncommon slots. It had three money cards: Path, Inquisition and Serum Visions, and two of those had just been reprinted months earlier in Conspiracy 2.
There is a “recency” effect in place here. The spoilers seem somewhat underwhelming because an insane amount of value was spoiled weeks ago when the box toppers were revealed.
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Bridge From Below [Rare]
Reveillark [Rare]
Reya Dawnbringer [Rare]
Thespian’s Stage [Rare]
Woodfall Primus [Rare]
Desperate Ritual [Uncommon]
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I think this set and it’s price increase are basically Gavin Verhey, Adam Prosak and the rest of the nerds taking their ball and going home.
They gave us two sets that were supposed to be OMGLOLZ awesome because drafty draft draft, and the community crapped all over them. Now they’re saying “Ok, here are the stupid type of reprints you wanted... but we are raising the price and killing the Masters series.”
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The SCG writers are just as bad, if not worse. Chas Andres is on twitter slamming anyone who doesn't like M25, and Cedric Phillips opened their most recent email newsletter with "Magic is the best it's ever been" at a time when Standard might be at its lowest level of popularity ever.
You're right that this set (and IMA before it) represents what is currently wrong with WotC. R&D has become inundated with draft nerds who aren't good deck builders.
It's why Gavin Verhey thinks IMA and M25 are amazing while the majority of the community thinks they're a swing and a miss.
It's why they are going in a direction with Masters sets that doubles down on what made IMA and M25 bad.
It's why Standard has been a train wreck for 3+ years and they keep having to ban cards. Their design process is lacking when it comes to analyzing interactions, and the FFL is incredibly inept at projecting what decks people will actually play.
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You've made two errors in your EV calculation. First, you don't add the average value of the mythics and the average value of the rares together because you don't get a rare and a mythic, you get one or the other.
Second, you have attributed way too much value to the commons and uncommons. Mtggoldfish doesn't factor these into EV for a good reason... you can't reliably sell commons or uncs as singles.
The current EV for a booster pack is around $8.40, not accounting for the foils. You could probably add another $.50 for those.
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You should read Gavin Verhey's article from around a week ago about the future of Masters sets. I have never seen a more clear indication of a company simply not getting it than what his article spelled out.
Basically...
1) Iconic Masters was actually great, and we're all stupid for not liking it.
2) The reason it was a sales disaster was because of the way the spoilers came out from Hascon months in advance. No other reasons. These are not the droids you're looking for.
3) R&D has been taken over by a bunch of draft nerds, and creating a draft format they enjoy is all they really care about.
Not only does Wizards completely fail to understand why IMA bombed, and why M25 is extremely likely to bomb as well at this point, but they have doubled down on the mentality that has directly caused it.
I basically quit playing constructed Magic several years ago because, IMO, Standard has been dog feces since BFZ was released. I actually hated Theros block too, but Khans kept me going. Between the constant banhammers and terrible set design, I'm definitely glad I spared my wallet the money I used to pump into the game.