Man, I know it was a couple years ago, but think back to the last two days of Iji 2. Proph had me dead to rights and came around on you. He was RELENTLESS in his efforts to get me lynched. He had post after post citing evidence, contradictions, interactions, etc, and he got heated when no one listened. That is how town!Proph approaches a game; he's meticulous, takes detailed notes, and is never disengaged.
This game he has been anything but that. He replaced in late D1, so ok, being out of sorts D1 and even D2 is fine. But D3/D4 has not been town Proph.
Hell, he even just admitted he's basically OMGUS'ing his entire list of scum reads.
- If you don't take into account his claim and his mechanics, his behavior is awful. Rhand was chummy with him and he shifted from having no idea who the scum were/having trouble solving to laser focusing on Keldeo throughout Yesterday and me Today.
Something happened between D3 and D4 that revved up my analytical abilities. I'll give you one guess as to what it was.
though no lie, this post makes no sense? "Purposely" hid it? like are you new or not? you can't play the newb card and then pretend like you are playing 4D chess with the mafia
This also could be a slip?
"Purposely hiding" the second vote... that supposedly wasn't even available that first spring? That wouldn't be hiding, it's just not claiming. Like, how do you make an effort to hide something you don't have yet
This is like point 3 or 4 towards Asta falseclaimg something
Yeah I also thought that language looked out of place. I'm still betting that, if anyone stole Gemma's role, it was Asta.
@Fulcrum
you say that Proph hasnt been solving, but like I don't really see that?
and how is that the conclusion, like ya sure when it doubt look at the people who arent trying to solve, but like in terms of solving, Proph doesnt really come to mind? even some of the top posts have done less in terms of solving I believe
also what about DK or Asta? why did neither of them come to mind?
He isn't solving me.
I've been playing with Proph for almost 7 years. I'm used to him working with me, bouncing ideas off of me, having decent, if paranoid, assessments of me. Here he's just, like, looking at my role stuff? I feel like when I try to talk to him there's nothing there.
Tbh I'm pretty sure Last has no clue how Proph plays Mafia.
Silver/Proph/Asta
Has an info and a manipulative, but only 1 ability I can RB? two claim issues. Maybe
DK/Proph/Asta
Lol gambit, especially with Asta now willing to bus if dk won't flip BG. Everyone here could easily be lying about/omitting parts of their claim. Very low posting team would explain a lot
Silver/DK/Asta
Also lol gambit, with silver doubling down on it. This team could have absolutely nothing I could RB? Idk, probably not this?
Silver/Proph/DK
DK would have known Asta was getting a message regarding a protect here, role balance works, but dk trying to convince silver to trust his results feels unaligned. Probably not this either?
For Dk/Asta/x... it had to be something like: dk gets run up, falseclaims BG (unless he has a real protect from my busdrive?), either way gets lucky the consensus is to protect Asta, but Asta then mistakenly claims being notified
If dk is scum without Asta, there needs to be some ability that was used on Asta (an actual BG or a fake message)
A bit self-serving, but... if KCC is town, this might actually be a productive avenue of thought? What scum team would actually have abilities she can hit?
I think he just misspoke, the only way he could have tried to roleblock dkings with his claim is if he thought you were going to target Killjoy next summer or something because no one else had a green or orange orb yet
If the orbs are nonseasonal I don't see why he would claim they are, unless he wanted to reduce the number of blue orbs he would "have" to pass out I guess? Why did shadow give Vezok a blue orb then? TMI/buddying I guess?
Idk, I think he true claimed regardless of his alignment
Didn’t he also claim to have a limited number of shots to gift whatever color he wants during the day?
N1, I wanted to confirm that your busdrive of Axel was legit. N2, I wanted to give the debilitating orb to one of my scumreads, since if dkings was mafia then I think there was a decent chance he would perform the kill in future Nights.
Quote from KCC »
Wait. What did you do last Night?
Misspoke; I tried to give him a green orb and got roleblocked.
So did Proph try to throw a potential roleblock at me to keep me from switching off Asta?
So, dk, you think the team is proph, silver, asta? Can you elaborate on the Asta read?
See, that's the thing... I don't have an indepedent scumread on Asta. There are a few weird things here and there, but nothing particularly damning on its own. But he's the only player that makes sense unless I'm wrong about KCC. Or Last is snowing all of us, but I just don't see that for like a dozen different reasons.
And I noticed something else that kinda points to Proph/Asta, but I'll put it in a separate post so this one isn't a chore to parse.
Like you were one of my original targets, but then I got worried I’d look scummy if me getting your role cancelled the protect on Asta.
Well tbh I wouldn't have taken the trade N1 without knowing who it was or how it happened. I would have done it N2 or N3, with hopes you would have stayed quiet about having the ability so scum would still think the BG was on.
@dkingsland not saying you just happened to steal Gemma's role and it was the one you crumbed, saying you might have had to kill her to unlock your bodyguard
Having to perform a kill to unlock a protective ability doesn't seem to make a lot of sense?
Vezok confirmed Proph gave her the orb early so it can't be Proph
Doubt it was Vaimes either
Your role went off on N0
KCC and fulcrum had both softed their roles by then, pretty sure
Honestly would have to be one of Asta/Dkingsland/Killjoy still I think
- Last's and Proph's abilities were confirmed during D1
- vezok is confirmed
- Vaimes and I breadcrumbed our roles long before Gemma died
- KCC/Axel/fulcrum full-claimed
- Silver weakly softed
That leaves Asta and Killjoy (if he's neutral) as possibilities, and also Rhand if the kill doesn't show up in flip once it's been used.
There is a corner case where Silver softed info role thinking one of Axel/fulcrum would get lynched and Rhand could copy one of their abilities, but that's a stretch.
But if someone did indeed steal Gemma's role, Occam's says its Asta due to the weird spring/summer doublevote claim that doesn't become active until the first summer.
On the other hand, Axel's theory that it was part of Gemma's role (Aurora?) that she burned up and didn't reveal her abilities when she died isn't really any less reasonable than the idea that the daykiller stole Gemma's role.
@DK
I wouldn't say nothing useful? Like he is clearly trying,. But like I am not certain which alignment that is coming from
I don't mean that he isn't trying in his posts, I mean in his voting. I'm pretty sure he has avoided every single major wagon over the course of the game.
both of Proph's votes were interesting in the fact that neither probably was going to happen given the collectives town reads on Asta, and everything surrounding DK's claim
like I said, I really did not like on Proph was actively saying he was trying to get his own read on Keldeo, but never really got there, he just left his vote on Asta, and let Keldeo die
This has been a pattern with Proph all game long. He's been hiding and doing nothing useful pretty consisently in terms of voting.
Asta was visited on N1 which I ~think confirms Dkingsland (more than he was, anyway) since no one else claimed Asta as their N1 target and dkings said he bodyguarded him N1.
I'm town, dkings is a bodyguard with no extra non-wolf kill power in the setup, that leaves the double voter and two manipulatives that can't even control whether their abilities work
There's a world where Dkingsland's ability protects from the lunch and he's a wolf with Asta and also has unclaimed abilities, I suppose. Like maybe he had the daykill and got the bodyguard after he used it or something, he's the only "active" role to only have one mostly passive ability (even Asta has a Winter active lmao)
Seriously... you've got proof Asta was targeted N1, Asta has the mod confirmation, and like you said there does not appear to be another kill in the setup. Tinfoil over my role is just distraction at this point.
And I honestly don't believe at all that you seriously think I was lucky enough to steal an ability that I just so happened to have breadcrumbed like two weeks earlier. In the words of the great Cris Carter...
I don't know that they work exactly as claimed, but there's a good chance the only thing he could be lying about is their literal effects because ~nothing has happened from them yet
1) mod error.
2) dk is hiding something about his role.
Totally by coincidence, I think dk is scum, so this is just icing.
Vaimes, I find it really odd that you keep hammering away at this and yet you have never tried to offer me the ability swap for an opportunity to actually learn exactly what my ability says... which would have been really easy to do if you have been so skeptical.
Proph is literally playing their own game right now, and it doesnt make me feel great about him, but I will give you that his posts arent really wolfy? I have stated before that I think at some points he feels really uninformed, but IDK how much I believe that at this point
What you call "playing their own game" I call being off in nowhereland doing nothing useful.
lets go way back and look at this train, where KCC is being run up
what exactly are the wolves doing here, if KCC is a wolf?
I don't think KCC is scum, but if she is then Silver/fulcrum/KCC are on counterwagons, Proph's slot had been MIA literally all D1, and Vaimes was off hiding in nowhereland being useless.
Not a fan of how Asta keeps using the newbtown defense in order to justify not lynching him - also, his post feels like he's trying to set up KCC as a mislynch after me.
His post also contains zero reasoning as to why he believes I am mafia - it's just an OMGUS vote. I don't think the double vote holds up as mechanical confirmation when we have a mason pair in the game.
Quote from vezok »
I'm willing to vote either dkings or asta with no remorse. I'm a bit iffy on proph simply because his role is just too weird for scum and I kinda liked shadow in the beginning.
vezok, do you have any opinion on me that's not based on shadow or my role? I don't recall you saying anything about me behaviorally or talked to me at all this game?
Quote from Lastwhisper »
@Asta's post against Proph is so bad? It literally reads as, "you are just jealous that I am a pure town read, and you are not"
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Unvote, vote dkings
Would prefer Asta but dkings can die too.
lol at scum trying to lynch me. What even is this? "Yeah I was voting this guy yesterday and today and keep calling him scum, and I totally agree with Last's latest point, but now I'm gonna switch with the wind!"
Like I am literally looking at half of fulcrum’s role PM and these abilities do **** all for a scum team.
Yeah, I mentioned this yesterday and this stuff has only solidified it, both fulcrum and Vaimes are probably only scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/Killjoy and I doubt that's the case. This just isn't a game-winning gambit because if one of them slips up and gets lynched, the entire thing just crumbles.
--------------------------------
So anyway, Proph (preferably) or Silver.
I don't think I need to say much more about Proph.
I really don't like that Silver's entire scumhunting methodology over the past two days has been laser-focused on who the daykiller is. It feels like he is trying to steer us down a bad path. It's also worth noting that he is just completely ignoring Proph in all of his analysis.
Spring - King of Aos Si, two votes, originally not active until Summer (Meaning I did not have the power online until Nacho swapped to Summer)
Summer - King of Aos Si, two votes
Fall - I'm a vanilla townie
Winter - Benevolent King, I can target one person that day, and that person is blessed by a winter wind or some ish that increased their lynch threshold by 1 (one)
Unless there's something you know that I don't, that's all of my abilities.
Okay, yeah, I don't believe this.
So, I have 5 abilities:
Playful Forgetfulness is my spring RB.
Lethargy of Feasts is my fall delay shield.
Winter Trap is my... winter trap that delays.
Lightning Strike is my busdrive.
And then Summer Storms is my summer ability that just triggers to turn on the busdrives.
Obviously, you have an extra vote ability now, Asta. But, I don't believe it works as claimed. If it worked so similarly to how mine turns on in the summer, why don't you have a separate trigger?
FWIW I also have a similar "trigger" ability.
I just realized I haven't done "full" claim for massclaim, so here:
I've got 3 abilities:
- Summer of Love: The first time the game transitions to summer, I gain a single use of Fairy Devotion
- Fairy Devotion: This is the BG ability. It's restricted to summer, but I can choose a target at any time.
- Cycle of Renewal: Any time the game circles back to summer, I can change my target if I so choose.
Keldeo is kinda right. The way he played yesterday seems to be extremely dubious coming from a scum partner with Rhand. There's also a lot of bits and pieces here and there where his posts are just weird from a scum perspective.
Some of that could be a result of Keldeo being from a different site.
I stand by the observations I made late D3. He spent a lot of time asking other people about Rhand instead of engaging directly, among other things.
All right people, riddle me this. Why does Keldeo's Summer RB target get chosen during the day, but the Winter RB is a regular Night choice?
What is the purpose of this? Is there a purpose? KCC's RB appears to be a normal Night choice action. And despite this being a Day choice, it doesn't prevent "day" abilities.
I note that Keldeo's ability also appears to avoid my Watch. Also the 1-shot Track. He would be targeting during the Day and those abilities would presumably not see that. Keldeo also could not be Role-blocked, or bus-driven, or Jailed, himself, it appears, baring an Orb situation.
I have to say that these points seem more useful for a Mafia than Town.
Yep, I addressed some of this earlier and completely agree with your other points. We already had multiple roleblocking abilities claimed/flipped, and Keldeo's somehow dodge all of the disruptive/investigative stuff in the game?
Another thing to consider... a lot of the season-restricted abilities here are very much nerfed. I appear to be the primary protective, and I can only die for my target. The fulcrum ability Vaimes now has gets a "non-mafia" result. If all of these other claims are true: Silver's summer and winter abilities are weak. KCC's roleblock can't stop the NK. Proph's orbs are very narrow-use. Your spring and fall ones are weak, and even your winter one is nerfed to a degree. But then Keldeo's are just... ridiculously strong. His summer action can't be stopped and has nothing conditional about it, and his winter ability can steal another ability?
I do have a Winter ability called Benevolent King which allows me to increase another player's lynch threshold by one. So yeah, that's a thing I have, not sure if I'll actually have a need/desire to use it.
Is this a day ability or night ability? If it's a day ability, you can easily just prove it today when we are ready to lynch.
There is still one thing bugging me, why wouldn't wolf!keldeo wanna push a Lynch on on Fulcrum, like at least we'd have something to talk about that day, and we could've come to our own conclusion the matter
It feels more like buddy on buddy than anything, but then that means he is lying about the roleblock all together, or he targeted his own buddy because ???
I said this before, but if they are W/W I very much doubt Keldeo actually targeted fulcrum. My guess is fulcrum tried to kill N1, it failed, and they assume you were indeed responsible. The claim is intended to throw doubt on you.
This isn't a clear, exactly, you (and most other people) could be +1 on a team with Keldeo/Axelrod or something, but there's definitely one in KCC/Keldeo and one in Axel/Fulcrum because that's what wolves need in the set up so I want to lunch those and see where we end up
So, I ask this (1) without going to look up wherever you explained your thought process about this before, and (2) without having taken the time to think through all the claims and/or ramifications thereof myself yet.
Nevertheless, I would be very interested if you would walk me (slowly) through your reasoning as to why there is "definitely" one scum in KCC/Keldeo and one in Me/Fulcrum "because that's what wolves need in the set up." I would like to hear you lay it out, and then I'm going to decide if I agree with it or not. Deal?
Vaimes and Proph are too random/weird/slow to be the only manipulative wolf roles, so either KCC or Keldeo because they have the most powerful and reliable manipulative abilities
I don't know how I feel about the info roles because of the narrow nature of the abilities and the fact that half of them aren't even good.
But in addition to Silver's points, with Tom having a flipped RB/jail ability, KCC having a verified RB, Proph claiming an orb RB and Keldeo claiming three straight-up RB abilities, that is just so much disruption and I find it hard to believe it's all town.
If fulcrum is mafia, the ability probably gives more info, like closer to a rolecop, and the random nonmafia aspect is not so much an alignment inspect as a clause to insure it can't miss since it's so limited
Vaimes verified the ability does what she says it does, so I doubt she's lying or withholding info unless they are both scum together, and even that seems bad because he'll get nuked immediately if she ever flips and the role says something different than what she claimed.
Silver:
He’s having fun in RVS and his reaction to Shadow in #14 feels pure. I would be very surprised if that comes from scum!Silver because I don’t expect him to think about a post like that as scum and craft an answer when it’s totally not necessary.
His mixed feelings from Nacho pushing him are normal.
His vote on me seems to come out of nowhere, but when he explains it, he’s voting me for what town always mislynch me for when I get mislynched: my posts feel weird.
Verdict: town
The focus of this "read" is to defuse silvers push, and devalue his vote.
Verdict: town
I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion here. This looks like the kind of weak attack/easy defense scum can coordinate in daychat. I think there is another example of this (see below), and the fact that you are just not even considering the daychat angle at all makes me feel even better about you being town now.
Lastwhisper:
He starts his own sidegame instead of playing the game at first, and then calls Nacho wolfy for his reaction to KCC, which I think was a very pure reaction. Nacho gets more flak for that though; too much to all come from scum.
He doesn’t like tom’s gimmick, but his reaction to it is better than Axelrod’s: he merely says he’s not a fan of the gimmick and that tom doesn’t give him town vibes. Ergo, he’s not calling the gimmick itself scummy, which is good.
His response to Vaimes where he uses the word “probably” talking about his tells not being AI bugs me bigtime. It looks like he jokingly wants to get rid of Vaimes’ push.
His reads in #163 don’t look like real reads. He doesn’t give a real read on both Vaimes and Silver and waffles on Nacho. The only thing there is a townread on KJ.
A lot of scum!pings there, but his later posts are suddenly way better. I like how he questions Silver’s Rhand vote and how he starts real worldbuilding and pressuring Vezok.
Verdict: lean town (if he’s scum he won’t keep up his new posting)
The purpose of this "read" is to reinforce/encourage pushes on Nacho/Vez/silver. It's being friendly with hopes of steering down wrong paths, with some doors left open to turn around later
Verdict: town
KCC:
Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the townie thing to do. Scum doesn’t like locking themselves into a claim from the start. I know a few players that do things like that, but KCC doesn’t strike me as one of those, unless she is consciously changing up her game. Which is totally unnecessary because she hasn’t played that many games recently that we all know her meta.
I like her Nacho reaction and have a total mindmeld with her question to Vaimes in #200
Verdict: town
This was a good play, not coming at me cripples a good chunk of my hunting style. I wouldn't be surprised if Rhand encouraged most or all of the scumteam to play hands off with me.
Who do you think are his buddies in light of this?
Axelrod:
The fact that he chose a semi-serious RVS target is bothersome. What is worse is that he uses KCC’s later posts to strengthen that vote. And then he calls tom’s gimmick in itself scummy.
Verdict: scum
If Axel is town, this isn't a soft target he's going after, which is dramatically different from his approach to Gemma and Tom. This also isn't so much an attack as further buddying to me and Tom, On the other hand, rhand might just think he sees a potential opening to rally me and/or Tom in this direction early.
Verdict: maybe scum
I agree with the bolded specifically... the push doesn't look like one Rhand really "believed" in, and it's possible he was planting a seed to point back to for some towncred if Axelrod ever flips scum.
I'm sticking to my guns on Rhand/Keldeo/Axel not all being scum together though, and Keldeo definitely looks like a hit.
Nacho:
I think the reaction she gave to KCC could come from either alignment, with a bigger chance of coming from town. Scum demanding claims on page 1 is pretty darn dumb, and Nacho isn’t dumb.
I like where her vote is right now.
I don’t like the mindreaver vote and the continued KCC pressure.
Verdict: lean town
Nicely calls nacho Town and not dumb, but leaves openings. Steers away from mind (which I think is buddy defense here) and also me (which is probably a mix of pocketing me and waiting to see if I'd turn on Nacho to open this option up)
Fulcrum:
Her first post feels like she distances herself from town a bit with how she talks about tom. Probably NAI though because she hasn’t been active on the site for a while.
I like how she wants Nacho to stop about KCC, which is indeed a needless distraction in thread by now.
Not much more there yet. I’ll need more to form a read.
Verdict: null
I could see this either way. The subtle shading might be keeping a mislynch open, though the "hasn't played here in a while" bit could be setting up a defense if anyone says she feels off.
Verdict: Maybe scum from just the iso? Luckily, I think her confirmed ability (and her sharing it), are almost clearing now
Another thing I found in my D1 notes was that odd post Rhand made saying that fulcrum would only talk to vezok about buddying if they were both scum or both town. This was when vezok was looking pretty bad (and I think he was pushing vezok at the time?), and it felt like he may have been trying to tie town!fulcrum to a scum flip. In retrospect he may have been trying to make fulcrum look better if vezok got lynched and flipped town.
Also, fulcrum makes a lot of sense on an Rhand/Keldeo team.
Asta:
Nothing really there. It bothers me that she did read the game when she posted #293 and didn’t comment on anything apart from answering a question directed at her.
Can be newb scum that doesn’t really know how to play scum.
Verdict: lean scum
If Asta is scum, why go past that first sentence? Why go out of the way to shade, but only gently where there's not much credit to be gained
Verdict: lean town
This is the other one that could be scum theater. It's pretty weak shade, and he could have coached Asta's response.
Keldeo can still be a wolf, he just probably isn't the daykiller, so if you're voting him because he might be, lol. The wolf roleblocker is ~almost definitely either him or KCC though (low odds of Proph but blue orb bulletproof and how loud his role is makes me ehhhh).
Eh? I don't think anyone is voting Keldeo because they think he's the daykiller.
Man, I know it was a couple years ago, but think back to the last two days of Iji 2. Proph had me dead to rights and came around on you. He was RELENTLESS in his efforts to get me lynched. He had post after post citing evidence, contradictions, interactions, etc, and he got heated when no one listened. That is how town!Proph approaches a game; he's meticulous, takes detailed notes, and is never disengaged.
This game he has been anything but that. He replaced in late D1, so ok, being out of sorts D1 and even D2 is fine. But D3/D4 has not been town Proph.
Hell, he even just admitted he's basically OMGUS'ing his entire list of scum reads.
Something happened between D3 and D4 that revved up my analytical abilities. I'll give you one guess as to what it was.
Yeah I also thought that language looked out of place. I'm still betting that, if anyone stole Gemma's role, it was Asta.
Tbh I'm pretty sure Last has no clue how Proph plays Mafia.
A bit self-serving, but... if KCC is town, this might actually be a productive avenue of thought? What scum team would actually have abilities she can hit?
What season is your RB again?
Didn’t he also claim to have a limited number of shots to gift whatever color he wants during the day?
I noticed this when going back over quotes/night actions...
So did Proph try to throw a potential roleblock at me to keep me from switching off Asta?
See, that's the thing... I don't have an indepedent scumread on Asta. There are a few weird things here and there, but nothing particularly damning on its own. But he's the only player that makes sense unless I'm wrong about KCC. Or Last is snowing all of us, but I just don't see that for like a dozen different reasons.
And I noticed something else that kinda points to Proph/Asta, but I'll put it in a separate post so this one isn't a chore to parse.
Well tbh I wouldn't have taken the trade N1 without knowing who it was or how it happened. I would have done it N2 or N3, with hopes you would have stayed quiet about having the ability so scum would still think the BG was on.
Having to perform a kill to unlock a protective ability doesn't seem to make a lot of sense?
- Last's and Proph's abilities were confirmed during D1
- vezok is confirmed
- Vaimes and I breadcrumbed our roles long before Gemma died
- KCC/Axel/fulcrum full-claimed
- Silver weakly softed
That leaves Asta and Killjoy (if he's neutral) as possibilities, and also Rhand if the kill doesn't show up in flip once it's been used.
There is a corner case where Silver softed info role thinking one of Axel/fulcrum would get lynched and Rhand could copy one of their abilities, but that's a stretch.
But if someone did indeed steal Gemma's role, Occam's says its Asta due to the weird spring/summer doublevote claim that doesn't become active until the first summer.
On the other hand, Axel's theory that it was part of Gemma's role (Aurora?) that she burned up and didn't reveal her abilities when she died isn't really any less reasonable than the idea that the daykiller stole Gemma's role.
I don't mean that he isn't trying in his posts, I mean in his voting. I'm pretty sure he has avoided every single major wagon over the course of the game.
Bottom of post 723
You should rethink on Proph.
This has been a pattern with Proph all game long. He's been hiding and doing nothing useful pretty consisently in terms of voting.
Seriously... you've got proof Asta was targeted N1, Asta has the mod confirmation, and like you said there does not appear to be another kill in the setup. Tinfoil over my role is just distraction at this point.
And I honestly don't believe at all that you seriously think I was lucky enough to steal an ability that I just so happened to have breadcrumbed like two weeks earlier. In the words of the great Cris Carter...
/barn
I could see this, especially when considering the vote Proph cast below.
Vaimes, I find it really odd that you keep hammering away at this and yet you have never tried to offer me the ability swap for an opportunity to actually learn exactly what my ability says... which would have been really easy to do if you have been so skeptical.
What you call "playing their own game" I call being off in nowhereland doing nothing useful.
I don't think KCC is scum, but if she is then Silver/
fulcrum/KCC are on counterwagons, Proph's slot had been MIA literally all D1, andVaimeswas off hiding in nowhereland being useless.lol at scum trying to lynch me. What even is this? "Yeah I was voting this guy yesterday and today and keep calling him scum, and I totally agree with Last's latest point, but now I'm gonna switch with the wind!"
Vote Proph
Orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr I have a job that keeps me very busy?
Tbh I'm being very much reminded of why I stopped playing Mafia in the first place.
Yeah, I mentioned this yesterday and this stuff has only solidified it, both fulcrum and Vaimes are probably only scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/Killjoy and I doubt that's the case. This just isn't a game-winning gambit because if one of them slips up and gets lynched, the entire thing just crumbles.
--------------------------------
So anyway, Proph (preferably) or Silver.
I don't think I need to say much more about Proph.
I really don't like that Silver's entire scumhunting methodology over the past two days has been laser-focused on who the daykiller is. It feels like he is trying to steer us down a bad path. It's also worth noting that he is just completely ignoring Proph in all of his analysis.
FWIW I also have a similar "trigger" ability.
I just realized I haven't done "full" claim for massclaim, so here:
I've got 3 abilities:
- Summer of Love: The first time the game transitions to summer, I gain a single use of Fairy Devotion
- Fairy Devotion: This is the BG ability. It's restricted to summer, but I can choose a target at any time.
- Cycle of Renewal: Any time the game circles back to summer, I can change my target if I so choose.
Some of that could be a result of Keldeo being from a different site.
I stand by the observations I made late D3. He spent a lot of time asking other people about Rhand instead of engaging directly, among other things.
Yep, I addressed some of this earlier and completely agree with your other points. We already had multiple roleblocking abilities claimed/flipped, and Keldeo's somehow dodge all of the disruptive/investigative stuff in the game?
Another thing to consider... a lot of the season-restricted abilities here are very much nerfed. I appear to be the primary protective, and I can only die for my target. The fulcrum ability Vaimes now has gets a "non-mafia" result. If all of these other claims are true: Silver's summer and winter abilities are weak. KCC's roleblock can't stop the NK. Proph's orbs are very narrow-use. Your spring and fall ones are weak, and even your winter one is nerfed to a degree. But then Keldeo's are just... ridiculously strong. His summer action can't be stopped and has nothing conditional about it, and his winter ability can steal another ability?
Is this a day ability or night ability? If it's a day ability, you can easily just prove it today when we are ready to lynch.
I said this before, but if they are W/W I very much doubt Keldeo actually targeted fulcrum. My guess is fulcrum tried to kill N1, it failed, and they assume you were indeed responsible. The claim is intended to throw doubt on you.
I don't know how I feel about the info roles because of the narrow nature of the abilities and the fact that half of them aren't even good.
But in addition to Silver's points, with Tom having a flipped RB/jail ability, KCC having a verified RB, Proph claiming an orb RB and Keldeo claiming three straight-up RB abilities, that is just so much disruption and I find it hard to believe it's all town.
Vaimes verified the ability does what she says it does, so I doubt she's lying or withholding info unless they are both scum together, and even that seems bad because he'll get nuked immediately if she ever flips and the role says something different than what she claimed.
Work has been crazy today. Should have more time tomorrow.
I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion here. This looks like the kind of weak attack/easy defense scum can coordinate in daychat. I think there is another example of this (see below), and the fact that you are just not even considering the daychat angle at all makes me feel even better about you being town now.
Yup.
Who do you think are his buddies in light of this?
I agree with the bolded specifically... the push doesn't look like one Rhand really "believed" in, and it's possible he was planting a seed to point back to for some towncred if Axelrod ever flips scum.
I'm sticking to my guns on Rhand/Keldeo/Axel not all being scum together though, and Keldeo definitely looks like a hit.
This all seems pretty reasonable.
Another thing I found in my D1 notes was that odd post Rhand made saying that fulcrum would only talk to vezok about buddying if they were both scum or both town. This was when vezok was looking pretty bad (and I think he was pushing vezok at the time?), and it felt like he may have been trying to tie town!fulcrum to a scum flip. In retrospect he may have been trying to make fulcrum look better if vezok got lynched and flipped town.
Also, fulcrum makes a lot of sense on an Rhand/Keldeo team.
This is the other one that could be scum theater. It's pretty weak shade, and he could have coached Asta's response.
Eh? I don't think anyone is voting Keldeo because they think he's the daykiller.
Oh, whoops. Carry on.