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  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Asta »
    Spring - King of Aos Si, two votes, originally not active until Summer (Meaning I did not have the power online until Nacho swapped to Summer)
    Summer - King of Aos Si, two votes
    Fall - I'm a vanilla townie
    Winter - Benevolent King, I can target one person that day, and that person is blessed by a winter wind or some ish that increased their lynch threshold by 1 (one)

    Unless there's something you know that I don't, that's all of my abilities.

    Okay, yeah, I don't believe this.

    So, I have 5 abilities:
    Playful Forgetfulness is my spring RB.
    Lethargy of Feasts is my fall delay shield.
    Winter Trap is my... winter trap that delays.
    Lightning Strike is my busdrive.
    And then Summer Storms is my summer ability that just triggers to turn on the busdrives.

    Obviously, you have an extra vote ability now, Asta. But, I don't believe it works as claimed. If it worked so similarly to how mine turns on in the summer, why don't you have a separate trigger?

    FWIW I also have a similar "trigger" ability.

    I just realized I haven't done "full" claim for massclaim, so here:

    I've got 3 abilities:
    - Summer of Love: The first time the game transitions to summer, I gain a single use of Fairy Devotion
    - Fairy Devotion: This is the BG ability. It's restricted to summer, but I can choose a target at any time.
    - Cycle of Renewal: Any time the game circles back to summer, I can change my target if I so choose.
    Quote from vezokpiraka »
    Keldeo is kinda right. The way he played yesterday seems to be extremely dubious coming from a scum partner with Rhand. There's also a lot of bits and pieces here and there where his posts are just weird from a scum perspective.

    Some of that could be a result of Keldeo being from a different site.

    I stand by the observations I made late D3. He spent a lot of time asking other people about Rhand instead of engaging directly, among other things.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Axelrod »
    All right people, riddle me this. Why does Keldeo's Summer RB target get chosen during the day, but the Winter RB is a regular Night choice?

    What is the purpose of this? Is there a purpose? KCC's RB appears to be a normal Night choice action. And despite this being a Day choice, it doesn't prevent "day" abilities.

    I note that Keldeo's ability also appears to avoid my Watch. Also the 1-shot Track. He would be targeting during the Day and those abilities would presumably not see that. Keldeo also could not be Role-blocked, or bus-driven, or Jailed, himself, it appears, baring an Orb situation.

    I have to say that these points seem more useful for a Mafia than Town.

    Yep, I addressed some of this earlier and completely agree with your other points. We already had multiple roleblocking abilities claimed/flipped, and Keldeo's somehow dodge all of the disruptive/investigative stuff in the game?

    Another thing to consider... a lot of the season-restricted abilities here are very much nerfed. I appear to be the primary protective, and I can only die for my target. The fulcrum ability Vaimes now has gets a "non-mafia" result. If all of these other claims are true: Silver's summer and winter abilities are weak. KCC's roleblock can't stop the NK. Proph's orbs are very narrow-use. Your spring and fall ones are weak, and even your winter one is nerfed to a degree. But then Keldeo's are just... ridiculously strong. His summer action can't be stopped and has nothing conditional about it, and his winter ability can steal another ability?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    How did you know Silver was going to have results to give us?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Asta »
    I do have a Winter ability called Benevolent King which allows me to increase another player's lynch threshold by one. So yeah, that's a thing I have, not sure if I'll actually have a need/desire to use it.

    Is this a day ability or night ability? If it's a day ability, you can easily just prove it today when we are ready to lynch.
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    There is still one thing bugging me, why wouldn't wolf!keldeo wanna push a Lynch on on Fulcrum, like at least we'd have something to talk about that day, and we could've come to our own conclusion the matter

    It feels more like buddy on buddy than anything, but then that means he is lying about the roleblock all together, or he targeted his own buddy because ???

    I said this before, but if they are W/W I very much doubt Keldeo actually targeted fulcrum. My guess is fulcrum tried to kill N1, it failed, and they assume you were indeed responsible. The claim is intended to throw doubt on you.
    Quote from Axelrod »

    This isn't a clear, exactly, you (and most other people) could be +1 on a team with Keldeo/Axelrod or something, but there's definitely one in KCC/Keldeo and one in Axel/Fulcrum because that's what wolves need in the set up so I want to lunch those and see where we end up
    So, I ask this (1) without going to look up wherever you explained your thought process about this before, and (2) without having taken the time to think through all the claims and/or ramifications thereof myself yet.

    Nevertheless, I would be very interested if you would walk me (slowly) through your reasoning as to why there is "definitely" one scum in KCC/Keldeo and one in Me/Fulcrum "because that's what wolves need in the set up." I would like to hear you lay it out, and then I'm going to decide if I agree with it or not. Deal?
    Vaimes and Proph are too random/weird/slow to be the only manipulative wolf roles, so either KCC or Keldeo because they have the most powerful and reliable manipulative abilities

    I don't know how I feel about the info roles because of the narrow nature of the abilities and the fact that half of them aren't even good.

    But in addition to Silver's points, with Tom having a flipped RB/jail ability, KCC having a verified RB, Proph claiming an orb RB and Keldeo claiming three straight-up RB abilities, that is just so much disruption and I find it hard to believe it's all town.
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    If fulcrum is mafia, the ability probably gives more info, like closer to a rolecop, and the random nonmafia aspect is not so much an alignment inspect as a clause to insure it can't miss since it's so limited

    Vaimes verified the ability does what she says it does, so I doubt she's lying or withholding info unless they are both scum together, and even that seems bad because he'll get nuked immediately if she ever flips and the role says something different than what she claimed.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    PTAP

    Work has been crazy today. Should have more time tomorrow.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    KCC, let's have some dialogue about your analysis of Rhand's 300. I made notes below on some pertinent sections:

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »
    Silver:
    He’s having fun in RVS and his reaction to Shadow in #14 feels pure. I would be very surprised if that comes from scum!Silver because I don’t expect him to think about a post like that as scum and craft an answer when it’s totally not necessary.
    His mixed feelings from Nacho pushing him are normal.
    His vote on me seems to come out of nowhere, but when he explains it, he’s voting me for what town always mislynch me for when I get mislynched: my posts feel weird.
    Verdict: town

    The focus of this "read" is to defuse silvers push, and devalue his vote.
    Verdict: town

    I don't necessarily agree with your conclusion here. This looks like the kind of weak attack/easy defense scum can coordinate in daychat. I think there is another example of this (see below), and the fact that you are just not even considering the daychat angle at all makes me feel even better about you being town now.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »

    Lastwhisper:
    He starts his own sidegame instead of playing the game at first, and then calls Nacho wolfy for his reaction to KCC, which I think was a very pure reaction. Nacho gets more flak for that though; too much to all come from scum.
    He doesn’t like tom’s gimmick, but his reaction to it is better than Axelrod’s: he merely says he’s not a fan of the gimmick and that tom doesn’t give him town vibes. Ergo, he’s not calling the gimmick itself scummy, which is good.
    His response to Vaimes where he uses the word “probably” talking about his tells not being AI bugs me bigtime. It looks like he jokingly wants to get rid of Vaimes’ push.
    His reads in #163 don’t look like real reads. He doesn’t give a real read on both Vaimes and Silver and waffles on Nacho. The only thing there is a townread on KJ.
    A lot of scum!pings there, but his later posts are suddenly way better. I like how he questions Silver’s Rhand vote and how he starts real worldbuilding and pressuring Vezok.
    Verdict: lean town (if he’s scum he won’t keep up his new posting)
    The purpose of this "read" is to reinforce/encourage pushes on Nacho/Vez/silver. It's being friendly with hopes of steering down wrong paths, with some doors left open to turn around later
    Verdict: town

    Yup.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »

    KCC:
    Claiming a scummy role from the get-go is the townie thing to do. Scum doesn’t like locking themselves into a claim from the start. I know a few players that do things like that, but KCC doesn’t strike me as one of those, unless she is consciously changing up her game. Which is totally unnecessary because she hasn’t played that many games recently that we all know her meta.
    I like her Nacho reaction and have a total mindmeld with her question to Vaimes in #200
    Verdict: town

    This was a good play, not coming at me cripples a good chunk of my hunting style. I wouldn't be surprised if Rhand encouraged most or all of the scumteam to play hands off with me.

    Who do you think are his buddies in light of this?

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »

    Axelrod:
    The fact that he chose a semi-serious RVS target is bothersome. What is worse is that he uses KCC’s later posts to strengthen that vote. And then he calls tom’s gimmick in itself scummy.
    Verdict: scum
    If Axel is town, this isn't a soft target he's going after, which is dramatically different from his approach to Gemma and Tom. This also isn't so much an attack as further buddying to me and Tom, On the other hand, rhand might just think he sees a potential opening to rally me and/or Tom in this direction early.

    Verdict: maybe scum

    I agree with the bolded specifically... the push doesn't look like one Rhand really "believed" in, and it's possible he was planting a seed to point back to for some towncred if Axelrod ever flips scum.

    I'm sticking to my guns on Rhand/Keldeo/Axel not all being scum together though, and Keldeo definitely looks like a hit.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »

    Nacho:
    I think the reaction she gave to KCC could come from either alignment, with a bigger chance of coming from town. Scum demanding claims on page 1 is pretty darn dumb, and Nacho isn’t dumb.
    I like where her vote is right now.
    I don’t like the mindreaver vote and the continued KCC pressure.
    Verdict: lean town
    Nicely calls nacho Town and not dumb, but leaves openings. Steers away from mind (which I think is buddy defense here) and also me (which is probably a mix of pocketing me and waiting to see if I'd turn on Nacho to open this option up)

    This all seems pretty reasonable.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »

    Fulcrum:
    Her first post feels like she distances herself from town a bit with how she talks about tom. Probably NAI though because she hasn’t been active on the site for a while.
    I like how she wants Nacho to stop about KCC, which is indeed a needless distraction in thread by now.
    Not much more there yet. I’ll need more to form a read.
    Verdict: null
    I could see this either way. The subtle shading might be keeping a mislynch open, though the "hasn't played here in a while" bit could be setting up a defense if anyone says she feels off.

    Verdict: Maybe scum from just the iso? Luckily, I think her confirmed ability (and her sharing it), are almost clearing now

    Another thing I found in my D1 notes was that odd post Rhand made saying that fulcrum would only talk to vezok about buddying if they were both scum or both town. This was when vezok was looking pretty bad (and I think he was pushing vezok at the time?), and it felt like he may have been trying to tie town!fulcrum to a scum flip. In retrospect he may have been trying to make fulcrum look better if vezok got lynched and flipped town.

    Also, fulcrum makes a lot of sense on an Rhand/Keldeo team.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Rhand »

    Asta:
    Nothing really there. It bothers me that she did read the game when she posted #293 and didn’t comment on anything apart from answering a question directed at her.
    Can be newb scum that doesn’t really know how to play scum.
    Verdict: lean scum
    If Asta is scum, why go past that first sentence? Why go out of the way to shade, but only gently where there's not much credit to be gained

    Verdict: lean town

    This is the other one that could be scum theater. It's pretty weak shade, and he could have coached Asta's response.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Really? It's the main reason people wanted me to protect Asta.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Also, I was looking over Axelrod's post about the Rhand wagon and saw that Asta did actually vote Keldeo two separate times in the same post.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Asta was counted twice during the first D1 vote count after Nacho changed the season.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall

    Keldeo can still be a wolf, he just probably isn't the daykiller, so if you're voting him because he might be, lol. The wolf roleblocker is ~almost definitely either him or KCC though (low odds of Proph but blue orb bulletproof and how loud his role is makes me ehhhh).

    Eh? I don't think anyone is voting Keldeo because they think he's the daykiller.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from dkingsland967 »
    Yikes... KCC might actually have a catch here?

    These two posts definitely don’t indicate an optional double-vote:

    Asta already had a vote on me there. That just moved the 2nd vote from you on to me as well

    Oh, whoops. Carry on.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Yikes... KCC might actually have a catch here?

    These two posts definitely don’t indicate an optional double-vote:

    Quote from Asta »
    Yeah, might as well claim my role here since the power is on display. I'm Oberon, Town King, baybee.

    Since dk has claimed Titania, I'm less suspect there.

    unvote dkings
    vote KCC

    Let's get a lynch yall
    Quote from D_V »
    Votecount 1.21
    KittyCupCake(5) - dkingsland967, Killjoy, tomsloger, Asta, Asta
    Dkingsland967 (5) - Grapefruit2, Nachomamma8, Keldeo, Silvercrys, fulcrum

    No Lynch(3) - Vaimes, Lastwhisper, Axelrod

    Nachomamma8(2) - Rhand, KittyCupCake

    Axelrod(1) - vezokpiraka

    Not Voting(1) -Prophylaxis
    Day One ends on December 7th at 4:15 PM PST
    With 16 Alive it takes 9 to Lynch
    The Current Season is Summer

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Quote from dkingsland967 »

    I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
    It does seems like, if her role had been stripped, that she would have been told though. You don't normally lose your abiliites but still think you have them. And she would have said something, I assume.

    Maybe if it all happened instantaneously - i.e. they target, find her role, and have the option to use it right then. But this theory allows that they could have chosen to shoot someone else. And left her alive with no ability and potentially having to explain.

    Could have been a "copy" effect, as opposed to a straight steal? Someone has already claimed something like that?

    Ah.

    If the daykiller actually did steal Gemma's role, my guess is that it happened as an effect of the kill and they went in blind. I can't imagine they would have had the option to choose someone else.

    Also,
    Quote from Axelrod »
    I mean it's been said, but the issue is not whether or not the RB/No kill is a slam dunk against fulcrum, but whether it ought to have raised your suspicions in some way that should have been evident in your posting.

    But there's nothing there that I see. You ought to have, at the very least, seemed more interested in this?

    That's the issue there.

    Thumbs Up
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    if I roleblocked someone, and there was no night KP, I would not hold that information till now

    maybe thats me though

    It's not.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Are you ready for some wild and baseless spec? Because I sure do love me some wild and baseless spec.

    Here goes.

    What if there is no day-killer?

    Or

    What if Gemma herself was the Day-killer?

    This wild and baseless spec brought to you courtesy of this Mod. announcement:

    A burst of light that comes from the sun itself suddenly envelops Gemma. Gemma screams as the light burns here leaving nothing behind but Ash. As the town settles down and examines the body they find that they cannot tell who Gemma was. However after searching her place they do find evidence that tells the examiners that she was indeed town.
    Gemma has been killed they were Aurora - Town.
    And the simple fact that it seems a fairly large coincidence that Aurora - you know, the Sun - was burned away by a burst of light that came from...the Sun.

    The way this spec works is one of two things:

    (1) Gemma had some kind of self-destruct role, which died upon being targeted. Someone targeted her during the day, and poof. That seems like a pretty bad role, but maybe she had something good to go along with it?

    (2) Gemma had a day-kill, attempted to use it, and it turned on her. Like the target reflected it, or something. Paranoid Gun-Owner type thing?

    I scanned Gemma's posts for hints of anything along these lines, just to see. Found this:

    Quote from Gemma »
    as is I just wish I had a dayvig with his name on it
    and that was re:Tom, fairly early on.

    Also these:

    i hope there's somehow a mafia vig so we can both die together tonight babe
    i spent all day trying to be super town so that mafia would have to kill me and now we have like a hundred roles out and i'm never going to die literally everything i did all day was pointless
    Which actually seems to hint at some kind of a Vengeful role? Maybe? Not sure how a Vengeful role fits into this.

    I mean, scum Day-kill is still the simplest explanation. But, I was thinking....


    I had some similar thoughts about this on D2, mostly because of how suddenly emotional/erratic Gemma's posts became that RL day shortly before D_V posted her death, but I concluded it was a little too far-fetched.

    I have my own tinfoil theory about the daykiller: They stole Gemma's role. That's why her role was stripped from her flip, and all the claims are technically true... only one person didn't originally have the role they have now.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Four Friendly Fall
    Vote Keldeo

    Yeah I'm pretty much locked in on him here.

    I already mentioned the Rhand interactions at EoD yesterday. I really thought an Rhand/KCC pairing made sense earlier in the game, but I don't think there is room for her there now as I don't think she and Keldeo are aligned. Looking back, I think Keldeo/Rhand makes a lot of sense because of things Keldeo has said. KCC/Rhand made a lot of sense because of things Rhand has said. Now I think that was probably pocketing on Rhand's part.

    KCC and Axelrod have already nailed it... Keldeo not coming out and claiming the RB on fulcrum D2 is suspect as ****. Also, he has also never voted or pressured her, despite actually voicing earlier in the game (and then pointing it out again today) that Last didn't stop the N1 kill, which is even worse. Not to mention he has claimed two day RB's when there are already multiple other day abilities claimed/revealed (and 3 RB's to boot). We have multiple night investigative abilities claimed, and also Vaimes's 1-shot track if that's legit, as well as other night-activated RB's. I'm having a hard time believing there are this many day abilities that dodge ALL these night actions.

    There is room for fulcrum, Silver, Proph or Asta on that team.

    I'm town; vezok is town.

    KCC and Axelrod are most likely town if Keldeo is scum. vezok's 3576 is right about Rhand's reads list, and I could see Axel being scum if I'm wrong about Keldeo, but he is definitely not scum with both Keldeo/Rhand.

    Last has been a gut town read all game. He *might* make sense as a neutral for the whole accusing people of "playing 3p to the thread" thing, but meh.

    I'm pretty sure Vaimes and/or Killjoy can only be scum if the exact team is Rhand/fulcrum/Vaimes/KJ. That is a deep, deep corner case. Basically, /barn vezok's 3629.

    fulcrum being scum here makes sense. In this world, she probably did perform a kill that failed on N1, and Keldeo is claiming potential kill stoppage + setting up to bus her if necessary for monumental towncred, but he isn't going to push it unless it becomes obvious she's going to get lynched. The scum probably do believe Last's ability prevented the kill, but Keldeo wants to subtlely discount Last's role/towncred with the whole "pretty sure he didn't stop the kill" thing. Also, look who fulcrum isn't voting right now despite "understanding" the points against him (hint: it's Keldeo).

    Silver and Proph fit mechanically. Proph is a huge question mark (plus another piece in the mess of claimed/verified RB roles), and Silver could just be flat-out lying to clear Keldeo of killing Gemma (or maybe Keldeo hasn't targeted Gemma, and Silver just knows it).

    I don't think Asta is scum, but he simply isn't cleared and there is no reason why he can't be scum with these players. And the supposed mod confirmation of my protect is weird.
    Posted in: Mafia
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