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  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    I'm just trying to play devil's advocate myself here and figure out if there's any world where KJ is a wolf, because I've been leaning hard on GF scum for the majority of Yesterday and most of Today, and it's pretty hard to fully detach myself from that mindset.

    Generally Grape's macro has been better than KJ's, but KJ's micro has been better. But overall in terms of a birds eye view, I just can't get past the fact that GF has no wolf pelts and pretty much just tunneled Osie and me all game. I really don't think that town GF would have just been stuck in the mud. I'll reread the MU game (Tarot Mafia) to see if he's the same or different.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    That's fair. I still think the slot has a decent chance to be scum. Less than I did before I knew the cross was Osie but still not zero. Especially since GJ's not scum with Proph and Proph's wall was howling.
    This post still reads as bad to me lol

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Thanks, I'll look for them next time I iso him. And I'm don't have a strong opinion on GJ yet it's really almost all carry over from Osie but I don't really care right now because Proph is probably a wolf and GJ and Proph aren't aligned. Proph never handles Osie's identity the way he does as buddies. Or really any of their interactions at all. Or especially Proph's wall which has a feel of trying to cover up for TMI.
    I still don't really understand the thought process here

    Grapefruit says that he thought the slot still has a decent chance to be a wolf, but then he transitions into "GJ's not scum with Proph and Proph's wall is howling". And then he continues with the fact that GJ is not scum because he thinks I am. So why did he say the second sentence exactly? Grape, can you enlighten me?

    I still don't really think that KJ re-evaluates on DV for literally no reason if he's a wolf? Like, why would you do that?

    GF's EoD1 still looks decent for him minus the whole "legacy time" thing. I keep bringing that up bc it's so jarring. I also don't really understand why in his quoted post makes him think that DV thinks GJ is town.

    Quote from DV »
    Really don't want to vote grape...
    But CFD onto KJ looks like out of the question. I really have no desire to do this again in 24 hours.



    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    Putting all the dead townies on ignore and only having to read flipped scum + KJ and GF is broken.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    @Proph You seem eager to get out of RVS, is this a new thing for you or am I misremembering your MO.


    I still can't really get past this question. Grapefruit, you /saw/ my wolfgame in Snow White, where I did the stupid "popping bottles" thing and started things off way too early. Why did you ask me this question when you saw me effectively end RVS super early in Snow White?

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »

    First off I know that the game is young but you pushing a scum read off of something as minor as a change in RVS behavior feels very out of character for you.
    HOW is it very out of character for me? What games were you using to base this comparison off of?

    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
    Still just trying to figure out here if this is Cantrip knowing that KJ is town and is easily to apply a townread on him for that, or if he's scum and this is Cantrip trying to defend him pre-emptively. I feeeeeeeel like Cantrip doesn't want to have a against-the-grain townread on KJ because it would make him look bad if KJ flipped before him?

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    And there go my good feelings from the Wisp pivot. The pivot itself is definitely town indicative but where is the reevaluation of the rest of the game. It's just a complete upheaval in how he's viewing the game but the only change in prospective is to add wisp to the town block. Just feels off to me. Bleh.
    How was I supposed to re-evaluate the rest of the game with the Wisp pivot? Did you expect me to actually re-evaluate everything when it was Day 1 and most people hadn't geared up to post by then?

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    OK, gonna spend the rest of the day threadcamping and rereading this game, like I was supposed to do this entire week.

    Maybe will vote today but more likely tomorrow, when everyone has posted their cases.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    Okay, finally done.

    Here's the random notes post I've been saving up all Day regarding Cantrip/Eco interactions. Very lazy, cursory analysis that is not formatted well.

    Cantripmancer:

    I tried to play the game last night, but MTGS kept throwing error messages, so I gave up and went to bed.

    Caught up, ready to rock, let's get this bread.

    Crossbell: I know high interaction doesn't automatically equate to town, but I always lean that way. Some general game solving vibes, too. I don't really get the suspicion on Axel. 98 might be a little try-hard, but, as has been noted, the Proph roleplay may be a factor there. Maybe I've got them higher than I ought just because they correctly noted that my absence was because of the weekend. XD If I'm right in my suspicions of who they are, though, they're solidly in their town meta. Certainly don't see why they're L-2. Town.

    @Cross: Can you point to differences in other games from Axel? I'm just getting standard Axel vibes so far.

    Killjoy: Pretty light in content, but that last post (150) is pretty solidly town paranoid KJ. Townlean.

    DoTArchon: Feels like he wants to solve, especially with his insight into KJ's mindset. Townlean.

    Wisp: I think a telling point here is the carelessness. Scum Wisp likes to pretend that they're careless, but they rarely actually post things that garner serious attention beyond "Why is Wisp the way Wisp be?" I'm not getting faked carelessness here (other than the drunkposting, but drunkposting always feels fake to me.) Mild townlean.

    Axel: Not much here, but certainly not getting the "awkward" vibes that Cross is concerned about. Still null.

    Grape: Some mindmeld on the Easy Breezy Beautiful Whisper read, and I like the long version of 73, but the TLDR feels waffly. Of course, it's coming from the Hedgelord, so I'll take it with a grain of salt and wait and see. Null.

    DV: I hate reading DV. Scumlean.

    Proph: The energy and engagement give me generally good vibes, but the progression from 22, where he says he will easily be able to read Wisp, to 30, where he votes Wisp for "clumsy" posts feels weird, especially with Proph saying it's for Wisp's "early" posts.

    @Proph: Can you show me Wisp being "clumsy", as you note in 30? In their "early" posts only, please.

    Also, I don't understand this:
    Quote from Prophylaxis »
    Do you think Wisp right now is engaged and relaxed? I think his posting has been quite clumsy and.. unconfident, for lack of a better term. He seems to be annoyed with both how I and Crossbell are treating him, which is understandable.
    You seem to be listing Wisp's annoyance with you and Cross as a point against them, but then you say it's understandable?

    Vote: Prophylaxis


    This post here makes me feel like he has TMI on Killjoy being town? Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but the way he just goes "town, town town" on Crossbell, KJ, and DoTA. He fencesits on Grape. He says that he gets "standard Axel vibes" from Axel, which makes me think that he may be TMIing on Killjoy, especially since he says this:

    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ.
    Epecially when the thread consensus was very much at KJ either a null or scumread.

    Also again, might be confirmation biasing, but I kinda don't like this interaction between Cantrip and GF. It feels very softball-y. Also I especially don't like the "Hrmmmmmmmmm" coming from GF here.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    @Cantrip I don't get your town read on crossbell at all. You only added two details beyond engaged and solvey=town. The first was the Proph roleplay was a factor in other people (DV and myself notably) scum reading the wall post and you having a guess to the identity and projecting that to the town meta. I have a hard time seeing how that equals a top town read.
    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Hrmmmm.


    Cantrip didn't really interact with either KJ or GF that much, so let's take a look at Ecophagy.

    Reread complete!

    Top town reads are Proph and Axelrod. Proph picked up the most + points as I was reading, but in general I think his D1 progression was organic and didn't really fit a mafia mindset. He makes a lot of big calls (LW from mafia to town under zero pressure, Crossbell as Town, DV Mafia then Town) when it would have been easy to ride on any read (or at least shelve them rather than reverse when they didn't gain traction). I also think his defence of Crossbell was towny - he put effort into the analysis and heart into arguing with DV, and he tried a couple of alternative wagons where mafia would have found it easy to park a vote and just not try to actually stop the Crossbell execute. This is just beyond what I think mafia Proph would think to do, especially since he caught some heat on D1 and didn't back down or go conservative.

    Axelrod's town read is largely based on effort. I don't truly know the limit's of Axel's scum range, but the analysis he has posted reads like he's figuring players out one by one, not working toward a grander strategy (which I think is also supported by the resulting reads being fuzzy/relative rather than hard). I'm going to need a break before I can sift through them and decide how much I agree with though. I also wrote down #206 - I liked the fact that Axel not only directly went against the easiest mafia read at the time, but also didn't give out town points he wanted to because Crossbell claimed to not be Osie.

    DoTArchon is my top mafia read - This isn't really groundbreaking, but he's been very focused on small things to the exclusion of having to interact with the thread at large (e.g. #259). Stuff like in #137 he's asking Crossbell for a very specific clarification but then just drops the (very predetermined looking) vote in #139. I know Axel liked #263 but I don't: "not T/T" a big call, but DoTA doesn't follow it up or push it - especially now that one half of it flipped town! #437 is probably the most content-dense post, but pretty much every read is either very fencesitty or comes from paranoia - nothing solid.

    Others:
    - GF really does not have a lot of content. I liked #66 for an against the grain LW town read. Similarly in #543 GF votes Proph in contrast to many easier wagons (GJ, DoTA, KJ) and it was a doubling down of an existing slightly dangerous read. The major problem is that GF hasn't done much else D2 other than just chip at Proph and make some fencesitting reads without voting anywhere. So he's either Mafia who's just clinging to a vanity vote or town in a tunnel who need to look back at the macro game. I think #768 is the latter direction but that's only a first step

    - KJ I can broadly see what Axel is getting at in #842. KJ doesn't have a lot but the nuggets he does have are OK. I'm less high on the early NKA calls because I think they are very easy to present as content while also being useless. Agree also that KJ could have easily voted Crossbell early (countered by KJ joining that wagon in #524 specifically as heat was building on KJ). KJ feels peripheral but more in a manner where he doing his own thing in his own way rather than deliberately avoiding interaction. I guess like GF I need to see more thoughts on the game as a whole rather than narrow focuses. Probably starting with the Vote count analysis KJ has been mentioning a lot but not actually done.

    Proph I need your help here on LW. During my reread I was nodding along with your early mafia-read of him - I thought he was overly defensive, inconsistent, trying pretty hard to seem relaxed/detached, and spent a lot of time agreeing and voting with you despite reading you as mafia. I picked out #230 as a broad "let's look at the low posters" very soon after you cased him in #181. Even in D2 while there's been more engagement he's been holding back waiting for results of this "game" which I'm very unimpressed by because needing to wait for everyone to answer is a great way to stall out when you have lurkers.
    But, Proph, you've switched your read to pretty much ride or die town and I need you to help me because I don't get it. I get that you read him from a town mindset and it fit, and I can see some positives like it sounds like he's talking without a filter, and I think that his voting would be less erratic (or at least more tactical) if he was mafia. But I also feel like his votes have been pretty safe and he's tried quite hard to make sure we all know he's having trouble nailing down reads. So, uh, help please?

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Overall I'm not wild about coming to basically the same PoE gamestate as the thread at large because for some mysterious reason I am very reluctant to just speed execute the whole consensus PoE pool. So although I'm down to clown on DoTA, I'm really hoping KJ and GF can most moar so we can work out if they're townies who are underwhelming or lurking scum rather than just triple-barreling them. It is also important that we force Proph and Axelrod to keep up their engagement so they can't coast on early game effort posts.

    Vote DoTArchon


    Pretty safe reads post here, townreading the obvious town while putting his potential buddy in the PoE/null section. The thing that's weirding me out here is that he's giving both GF and KJ a chance to redeem themselves by saying to GF "768 is a first step" and to KJ "start with this VCA".

    Quote from Ecophagy »
    I actually agreed that Osie's early read wall was a big red flag and I'd have pushed him for it if I'd been in the game. It is reasonable on the surface to retract to Osie read on reveal because the read wall a core component but Grape mentioned seeing Osie get "raked over the coals" for making one in another game. Grape did promise a reevaluation when he unvoted but it doesn't look like he ever did which is at best lazy. Moving over to his next scum read (you) is at least consistent.

    I think it's slightly +town. The full reevalaution would have been much more so since without it the unvote could be tactical, but Grape had enough of a case in #290 that he could have easily stuck to his Osie vote as mafia if he'd wanted. Similarly the vote on Proph came at a time where both KJ and DoTA were softer wagons - I don't see why he would as mafia pick a fight with someone who agrees with him that Osie/GJ is not-mafia.
    Slightly townreads Grape here. Will have to see his progression.

    Quote from Ecophagy »
    Speaking of KJ, I want to give #941 town points for looking at the game holistically and ending up with some...unusual reads. But the logic is really flimsy (as Grape has already pointed out) and it's missing the possible scenario that the mafia are all in the PoE and can't post enough to get out. Probably because the most likely team in that case is DoTA and KJ. So if KJ really believes that the game state means there's mafia in Proph/LW/Axelrod then I would really like to see some research to work out which one rather than picking softest option LW out of a hat. An option that KJ is immediately backing down from in the face of conflict.
    Also slightly townreads KJ here, but then immediately backs down on it because he says that the logic is "really flimsy". Also gives the answer key to KJ here.

    @KJ are you ever going to do your end of D1 VCA?
    OK so we broadly feel the same way that KJ is kind of disconnected but doing his own thing is not actively wolfy for him. I wouldn't call it a slap in the face, but I would absolutely like more support of the world view he's pulled out of thin air. Also I did mean KJ backing down was scummy - I definitely don't like him floating this holistic system to avoid the current thread and bailing on it as soon as it get flak.
    Not exactly sure if he shades KJ like this if he's buddies with him. Here's another shade attempt:
    @KJ I don't really get why you've gone "here is a possible world based on game flow" then basically completely moved away from it when challenged/some counter evidence has been presented. And then you're not really doing anything about it. I'd expect you to be thinking more "here's my world view, let's check it against my reads and D1 VCA. Oh maybe I'm wrong about LW what does that mean for my world view?"

    Your actions are all just disconnected and it's hard to not see them as doing Things To Look Town as opposed to trying to solve the game by using your tools together.


    Quote from Killjoy »
    Eco I'm trying to play the game on a few fronts.

    Quote from Ecophagy »
    But, are you? Or rather, you have presnted a few fronts (early NKA pairs, proposed VCA, verifying Axel's Cantrip read, the recent "game flow"). But you've not tried to unify any of these tools - I would expect you to be trying to build one coherent world view, not one disconnected world view per front.
    Also kinda reads as unaligned tbh.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.
    Quote from Ecophagy »
    uh, what? If you're going to say things are "agenday" you have to explain what the scum agenda is. Because I'm reading those events essentially completely the opposite to you because I can't come up with a reason for mafia-Proph to have done them. If Proph was pushing the game where he wanted there were paths of significantly lower resistance he could have taken.
    Kind of a neutral retort towards Grape, and also another attempt to dunk on KJ.

    Day 3.. gonna take things with more of a grain of salt and figure out what the scum's plan was going into that Day. Still think the hypothesis of Eco/Grape converging towards KJ as the final mislunch is correct but we'll see.

    @KJ Do you still believe in your "game flow" read?

    Quote from KJ »
    Eco: I have no confidence that it's actually a good tell, since its basically a feeling I had, but I'd certainly like it to be a thing.

    It would pretty much mean the scum team is exactly you/Wisp but IDK if I could prove that theory at all.

    @LW: I lumped KJ and GF together because if Proph is town, then it has to be exactly KJ and GF, so it doesn't really matter which is worse. But I totally agree that KJ is scummier, that's why I was asking him yesterDay about unifying his theories: because I felt that KJ had been using theory to create many possible worlds that had contradictions but hadn't been trying to unify them at all the way I would have expected town KJ to. I have been trying to give him some rope rather than just outright accuse him because KJ was much more likely to answer questions than DoTA was.

    In fact, since Proph/Grape is a very unlikely team, KJ pretty much has to be Mafia here regardless of how strong the case is on him.

    So, sorry I posted "just" facts at the start of the Day, but we are fundamentally on the same side here. Just trying to work out if Proph or Grape is the last bad guy.
    Definitely feels like Eco is trying to prepare KJ as the final mislunch as opposed to bussing his buddy.

    Quote from Killjoy »
    @Eco: Why does Grape/Proph not make sense? What about Grape Wisp? Or Wisp Proph? Why am I scum?

    GF/Proph is unlikely because I don't think scum-GF's strategy would be to spend the whole game trying to bus his senior (or at least more active) partner. Grape/Wisp because I think Wisp is town. Wisp/Proph because their interactions would be an unbelieveable and unnecesary level of scum theatre, espcially compared to how the interacted as buddies in the Throne of Lies game.

    But that you don't know all this makes you look pretty desperate - or do you have some counter argument or behavioural evidence for one of these teams?
    Lol

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Eco's walls on Proph and me are fine. I just don't have the time to dig into them right now but like I can't point to any massive red flags at a glance. And his little back and forth with Wisp about my EoD1 feels natural-ish, but like he kind of has to be scum here I think. I'll try to get back into this a bit more in depth but today is a bit busy and with Proph now looking like he might actually be town the game kind of feels easy. Wisp is never scum so if Proph is legit then it's solved.
    :/
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    see you guys in ~6 hours
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    zzz waiting on cases still working on the assessment

    been pretty irresponsible this morning which is bad for me, need to work harder on focusing

    see y'all tonight and will be around tomorrow
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    Quote from Killjoy »
    1. Because I had no confidence in the high/low thing as an ACTUAL THING. It was more "this feels like this could be the case, lets assume it's true and see where it goes" and it turned out to not be a thing.

    2.I believe it was because I disliked DotA's lack of really doing anything at all more than I disliked Cantrip's play. I think I made a post addressing that somewhere, and when I come across it during my towncase I'll make a note.

    3. IIRC I was reading his ISO when I posted that first post, and then was asked by Wisp to ISO him officially? Yeah no in a post just before it I said I was rereading Osie. And I think I made the "Cross might be scum" post because I'd already finished reading his ISO and that was the conclusion I'd come to?


    OK, you not doing much with the whole high/low posters kinda makes sense now because you didn't really push any scumreads or vote anybody based off of it. You just only hammered the two townies (and helped us vote scum Eco off the map)

    Please point to me where you said you disliked DoTA.

    Uhh I'll recheck context but I can buy this I think.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    @Proph I hrrmmmmmm'ed at Cantrip's post because of him saying meta was a big part of his read. Felt very weird to claim a meta read on a suspected identity. Then he gave a bunch of hedging before sticking with the read. Had the potential of TMI.

    The second question is because I didn't really want to argue again that you were being driven by an agenda. I had outlined my (incorrect) case on that elsewhere.

    The third question will be answered in my self ISO but the short answer is I really thought I'd caught something early with you and was probably falling to confirmation bias in reading subsequent posts. I'd said early on that I should reevaluate if you were able to keep up not the activity but the direct engagement but never really did that. I took your reevaluation of me to be backing down from conflict after EoD1 when I survived. As for the "kid gloves" to use your words it wasn't exactly about the way you posted at KJ but the way you handled the thread flow. I thought it fit because you were leaving him in the PoE but not actively trying to bury him. I wouldn't call most of what you did actively defending him but prioritizing other targets.


    Is there a reason why you didn't mention this, or pressure Cantrip for this during Day 1? I know you were pretty focused on Osie and I, but I don't think there was anything precluding either Cantrip/me or Cantrip/Osie being a team at the time - especially when Cantrip also expressed a townread on Osie during Day 1.

    And why did you interpret me re-evaluating you at EoD1/SoD2 as a scummy thing? Wouldn't me as scum just try to railroad you and continue my dogged pursuit after we mislunched GJ?

    Fair re: thread flow.

    --

    I'm still busy with a coding assessment but I'll try to be more active on Friday. Until then, y'all just post your cases.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    Okay, I'm not gonna be around for the next 10-12 hours (and if I am, someone please slap me) but in an effort to get things rolling, here are some questions. I have like, more analysis stored up in the tank, but I'll drop it a little later in the week. I was gonna say "I don't want to give whoever who of you is a wolf a roadmap to bury the other" but I realized my questions right now and my cases from Yesterday kinda give the ammunition, so.. shrugze.

    @Grapefruit21

    1. Talk to me about this progression here. What exactly were you "Hrmmmmmm" ing about when Cantrip gave you that response?
    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    @Cantrip I don't get your town read on crossbell at all. You only added two details beyond engaged and solvey=town. The first was the Proph roleplay was a factor in other people (DV and myself notably) scum reading the wall post and you having a guess to the identity and projecting that to the town meta. I have a hard time seeing how that equals a top town read.

    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    The meta read is actually playing a lot stronger here than I think I realized. Each subsequent post makes me feel like it's more likely who I think it is, and I'm freaking loving it. (Spoiler: I'm probably completely wrong, because I'm almost always wrong on these things, but something something blind squirrel...) I'm also happy with the volume of output. Again, not necessarily town on its own, but in combination with everything, feels indicative to me. The Axel read still doesn't meld with me (nor the DoTa one, tbf), but the meta dive at least lets me see where Cross is coming from.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    Hrmmmm.


    2. Why did you never really bother to engage with Eco when he said that I wasn't being agenda-y? I know you posted this, but you didn't really make an effort to figure out /why/ exactly Eco had that read and was just locked in on me/KJ as the team.
    Quote from Ecophagy »
    uh, what? If you're going to say things are "agenday" you have to explain what the scum agenda is. Because I'm reading those events essentially completely the opposite to you because I can't come up with a reason for mafia-Proph to have done them. If Proph was pushing the game where he wanted there were paths of significantly lower resistance he could have taken.

    Quote from Grapefruit21 »
    It's hard for me to imagine a lower resistance route than ending up with a PoE of you, KJ, and Dota while only ever voting Dota. He's also been backing out of direct confrontation other than at the EoD1 when he and DV went hammer and tongs.


    3. Talk to me about why exactly you were so convinced I was scum this game when I have one of the highest postcounts, was trying to Actively Solve, etc. You know my scum game involves a ton of bussing - do you really think I would be able to treat scum KJ with kid gloves and bizarrely defending him like I was doing most of this game? Where in this game did you think I was trying to "back down from conflict"?

    ----

    @Killjoy

    1. Talk to me about your progression on my slot. You went from town to scum to town again, and then you solidified that town read Yesterday. If you thought Wisp or I was scum because of the "high poster low poster" theory, then why did you not make an effort to seriously push one of us?
    Quote from Killjoy »
    @Proph:I went from townreading you for reminding me of town!me to concluding you need to be scum (mostly because I wasn't feeling Wisp as much at that point) to an actual behavioral townread on you, yes.


    2. In post 817, you actually took the time to ISO Cantrip and came out with a (correct) scumread on him. Yet, you never really pushed this when Eco replaced in and never really prodded him, instead choosing to sheep me on DoTA. Can you talk to me about why you abandoned your Cantrip/Eco scumread there?

    Quote from Killjoy »
    I'm just gonna blatantly copy Axel and ISO Cantrip first because 12 posts.

    Cantrip seems at first glance to not be putting as much thought into his reads as I'm used to. 151 is obviously fairly shallow. Particularly his scumlean of DV. He says he hates reading DV, which I interpret as he thought a lot/everything DV was doing was scummy... but there's no specifics. Cantrip is the type of player who would have specific reasons for disliking someone generally, and his choice not to specify those reasons in his list here doesn't actually make a whole lot of sense to me. Actually there's a second possible meaning to "I hate reading DV" and that's that he just dislikes trying to discern his alignment... but then the Scumlean comes out of nowhere and still has no stated reasons. Note: He says of DotA: Townlean for insight into my play.

    In 241 is progression on his DotA read. It's notable because it's kinda just a reaction to DotA's vote on Cross, but contradicts Proph's read on the same vote. Cantrip seems to come down on it being a townie post from DotA.

    In 245, he says "It's not the content, it's the sharpness of the insight. Iirc, the feeling I often get from scum!KJ is sort of a meandering lost. He can't have sharp insights because he feels there's nothing to solve. He's honing in on something that he doesn't understand and applying focused scrutiny. I think that comes from town!KJ."
    @Cantrip: What games have I been scum against you? I can't remember.
    It's entirely possible this read is actually fake in order to placate Proph here. This kinda makes me think that Proph and Cantrip are unaligned, because Cantrip probably doesn't make a potentially demonstrably false statement like this to placate his buddy during theatre.

    Note: he (possibly jokingly) claims that DV might be town for, I assume, a natural sounding post 178.

    In 265: "That is...a weird way to conclude your statement. Your suspicion of Cross is apparent, so I get that you think they're either W/W or T/W, but why say it this way instead of just pondering whether Axel is a buddy or not? That doesn't seem to jive with your "are they trying to figure each other out" possibility, either, as that would only happen with T/T." This feels nitpicky, His point wrt DotA is that is doesn't mesh with DotA's assertion that Axel and Crossbell potentially weren't actually trying to figure each other out (which implies that they are buddies performing theatre) but Cantrip has issues with the way DotA worded his argument, acting as if DotA contradicted himself when he really didn't. I'm not sure there's a remarkable difference between asking if Axel and Cross were buddies and saying DotA didn't think it's T/T, or even a difference between asking if it's T/W or W/W.

    In conclusion: I'm actually thinking he might be a wolf here, because I'm not seeing the extensive probing I'm used to, and specfically I'm not seeing thoughtful Cantrip I'm used to seeing. I don't think this is time constraints, I think it's just Cantrip acting abnormal.

    Coloring added to seperate quotes from my thoughts.


    3. Talk to me about your progression in 523/524. You went "Crossbell might be scum" and then ISOed them and came out with a scumread, which is kind of a bizarre thought process. Normally you would do it in the reverse order, right? So yeah, please talk to me about that.

    Quote from Killjoy »
    Also Cross might be scum btw.

    Quote from Killjoy »
    So, Crossbell.

    A lot of his posts, when read individually didn't do much for me. Tone was fine, I guess. For the most part.

    There were a few things that were off though when I ISO'd him just now.

    Firstly, in 98, he had a lot of words for why DV was scum, but still had Axel as biggest scum for some reason.
    I also don't think he and Wisp are scum together for the back and forth between them following this being very awkward.

    But the biggest problem for me ends up being his progression onto his scumreads. As of 197, he was scumreading DV and Axel still as far as I could tell, but he offers to vote DotA with DV (who I don't think he'd said anyone about at that point) which... really makes no sense to me.

    By 256 his reads don't seem to really have any substance, he's on Axel and DotA now, and he still really hasn't said too much about DotA yet.

    By 360 he's flipped on me out of nowhere, now I'm suddenly a possibility and he's seriously entertaining me being scum despite continuously saying he thought I was town for various reasons.

    All in all he feels like he's just kinda trying to yeet someone that he doesn't actually naturally scumread.

    So that's what I got from his ISO. TBH I didn't really try really hard to read him before because I'm always so bad at it, and was gonna put it off till over Night/Tomorrow just because I didn't want to deal with it. So, er, sorry about that?


    See y'all in 12 hours or so. I'll be miffed if I see this post again as the latest post 12 hours later.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    will be looking forward to both

    am unexpectedly busy this week, so i'll try to consider all viewpoints, but i may extend things to be a little longer than usual to account for this
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    dead townie's reads are useless to look at because at the time of their death, they had access to less information than i have now

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    just waiting on kj/grape to do things

    I re-looked at Cantrip/Eco interactions, will post once both of them have town/scumcased each other
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Mafia: Dominaria Style - The Power Nine (GAME OVER - THE TOWN WIN!)
    Quote from Killjoy »
    ...I was expecting Proph to be dead right now. WTF.
    I look forward to hearing why you went this way.]I plan to do that, but IDK if 24 hours is enough time? I'll do something tomorrow morning for sure but IDK if I'll have time to do both of these.


    I was also expecting to be dead, but I suppose either you or Grape want to play the wine game.

    Jokes on them, I will be putting in massive amounts of effort as I have all game into solving this, and I think my analysis skills are good enough to lead me to the correct conclusion. We'll see though, don't want to brag too much.

    Take your time. I certainly plan on taking mine. Sorry spec chat.
    Posted in: Mafia
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