If there are N targets, let M = the smallest power of 2 >= N. So for example if there are 6 targets, M would be 8.
Get opponent to agree that flipping a fair coin LogBase2(M) times can uniquely pick a target, or if it doesn't then results in a coin flip. Thus, LogBase2(8)=3, so HHH would be target 1, HHT=target 2, HTH = 3, HTT=4, THH=5, THT=6, TTH=Reflip, TTT=Reflip.
Your math is terrible. You made the incorrect assumption that you are looking at the odds of drawing 2+ baneslayers in the first N turns, which is not the situation at hand. The correct situation is: given that they have ALREADY drawn a baneslayer, what are the odds that one of the remaining N cards they have drawn is one of the remaining three baneslayers in the deck?
Please reread my post, I actually address three different cases: After Ousting/Terminating their only Baneslayer, what are the odds of them drawing 0, 1 or 2 Baneslayers over the next two turns.
I apologize if you were talking about some other case, but I picked that case from your own quote (emphasis mine):
Assuming that there are 3 other baneslayers in the deck, that Baneslayer is the highest quality / biggest threat card in the deck, and that they cast the first Baneslayer on turn 5.
I see now that you might have been talking about the possibility that they also have Baneslayers in their hand, but you still have yet to actually show the math for those numbers that you produced. In truth, I don't know why that would help... first of all if they have Baneslayers in their hand, then nobody cares what they draw, and Oust is equivalent to an Unsummon. They could even stop drawing. Regardless, if they have more in their hand then the number in their deck would be fewer than 3, so the odds of drawing more would go down drastically, meaning that Terminate continues to be even more different from Oust.
Lastly, there's no reason for your vitriolic attitude. Please keep things civil. Attacking me personally as you have done in your last two posts does nothing to change the content of my posts. If there is a mistake in my math, please share it.
As for Oust, I'm not that good at math so I will leave that to others, but by now I think almost anyone agrees that Oust is not hard-removal. That said I still believe it's a great card that can change the pace of the game quite a bit.
Yeah, that was the point. The original poster was saying that Oust was identical to any other removal spell. The rest of us were saying that's it's not a removal spell, and in fact is a tempo spell. Then the original poster tried to claim that the math agreed with him/her, so I corrected him/her.
Now that we have all the cards, we can start to see the trends and debate them. For example: Levelers. We knew it wouldn't be spread evenly among the colors, but how does it look?
White:
C 3
U 1
R 2
M 1
Total 7
Blue:
C 2
U 2
R 2
M 1
Total 7
Black:
C 2
U 1
R 1
M 0
Total 4
Red:
C 0
U 1
R 1
M 1
Total 3
Green:
C 0
U 2
R 1
M 0
Total 3
How about rebound?
White:
C 0
U 2
R 1
M 0
Total 3
Blue:
C 1
U 0
R 1
M *
Total 2+* (The enchantment that grants rebound)
My opinion of this set is that there are many great rare/mythic cards for black, white, green and red. Blue has extremely lousy rares and mythics. However, I can't deny that the creatures in blue this time round are quite strong. All in all a set designed more for limited play than constructed.
I agree and I'm really excited about it. I'm trying to replan my life right now to make sure I can make the pre-release because it looks like such an interesting limited environment.
Goblin Arsonist R
Creature - Goblin Shaman Common
When ~this~ is put into a graveyard from the battlefield, you may have it deal 1 damage to target creature or player
Hellion Eruption 5R
Sorcery Rare
As an additional cost to cast ~this~ sacrifice all permanents you control, then put that many 4/4 Hellion creature tokens onto the battlefield.
Bloodrite Invoker 2B
Creature - Vampire Shaman Common
8: Target player loses 3 life and you gain 3 life
3/1
Death Cultist B
Creature - Human Wizard Common
Sacrifice ~this~: Target player loses 1 life and you gain 1 life
Induce Despair 2B
Instant Common
As an additional cost to cast, reveal a creature cards from your hand
Target Creature gets -X/-X until eot where X is the CMC of the revealed card
Nirkana Cutthrough 2B
Creature - Vampire Warrior Uncommon
Level Up 2B 3/2
1-2 Deathtouch 4/3
3+ First Strike, Deathtouch 5/4
Null Champion 1B
Creature - Zombie Warrior Common
Level Up 3 1/1
1-3 4/2
4+ B: Regenerate ~this~ 7/3
Ikirial Outrider 1W
Creature - Human Soldier Common
Level Up 4 1/2
1-3 Vigilance 2/6
4+ Vigilance 3/10
Kabira Vindicator 3W
Creature - Human Knight Uncommon
Level up 2W 2/4
2-4 Other creatures you control get +1/+1 3/6
5+ Other creatures you contrl get +2/+2 4/8
Smite W
Instant - Common
Destroy target blocked Creature
do we have a confirmation on training grounds? it plus the eldrazi dude that makes tokens (spawnsire of ulamog?) is infinite creature sac (dragon apeasement, extractor demon, deathgreeter, soul warden) Just dont know if i believe it.
They're all in the FAQ. Go to the link from the original post.
Of course, in a limited game, which is where removal is MOST important, the numbers change drastically. They generally only have 1 of their biggest threat, not 4. In this case, putting it two from the top is just a tempo issue, removal is actually removing it.
Get opponent to agree that flipping a fair coin LogBase2(M) times can uniquely pick a target, or if it doesn't then results in a coin flip. Thus, LogBase2(8)=3, so HHH would be target 1, HHT=target 2, HTH = 3, HTT=4, THH=5, THT=6, TTH=Reflip, TTT=Reflip.
Then play Krark's Thumb
Please reread my post, I actually address three different cases: After Ousting/Terminating their only Baneslayer, what are the odds of them drawing 0, 1 or 2 Baneslayers over the next two turns.
I apologize if you were talking about some other case, but I picked that case from your own quote (emphasis mine):
I see now that you might have been talking about the possibility that they also have Baneslayers in their hand, but you still have yet to actually show the math for those numbers that you produced. In truth, I don't know why that would help... first of all if they have Baneslayers in their hand, then nobody cares what they draw, and Oust is equivalent to an Unsummon. They could even stop drawing. Regardless, if they have more in their hand then the number in their deck would be fewer than 3, so the odds of drawing more would go down drastically, meaning that Terminate continues to be even more different from Oust.
Lastly, there's no reason for your vitriolic attitude. Please keep things civil. Attacking me personally as you have done in your last two posts does nothing to change the content of my posts. If there is a mistake in my math, please share it.
Yeah, that was the point. The original poster was saying that Oust was identical to any other removal spell. The rest of us were saying that's it's not a removal spell, and in fact is a tempo spell. Then the original poster tried to claim that the math agreed with him/her, so I corrected him/her.
White:
C 3
U 1
R 2
M 1
Total 7
Blue:
C 2
U 2
R 2
M 1
Total 7
Black:
C 2
U 1
R 1
M 0
Total 4
Red:
C 0
U 1
R 1
M 1
Total 3
Green:
C 0
U 2
R 1
M 0
Total 3
How about rebound?
White:
C 0
U 2
R 1
M 0
Total 3
Blue:
C 1
U 0
R 1
M *
Total 2+* (The enchantment that grants rebound)
Black:
C 0
U 1
R 1
M 0
Total 2
Red:
C 1
U 1
R 1
M 0
Total 3
Green:
C 0
U 1
R 0
M 0
Total 1
I agree and I'm really excited about it. I'm trying to replan my life right now to make sure I can make the pre-release because it looks like such an interesting limited environment.
Well, there could be goodies in M11...
Ogre's Cleaver 2
Artifact - Equipment Uncommon
Equipped Creature gets +5/+0
Equip 5
Leaf Bombardment -> Leaf Arrow
Nema Siltlurker 4G
Creature - Lizard Common
3/5
Birthing the Brood -> Brood Birthing
Goblin Arsonist R
Creature - Goblin Shaman Common
When ~this~ is put into a graveyard from the battlefield, you may have it deal 1 damage to target creature or player
Hellion Eruption 5R
Sorcery Rare
As an additional cost to cast ~this~ sacrifice all permanents you control, then put that many 4/4 Hellion creature tokens onto the battlefield.
Bloodrite Invoker 2B
Creature - Vampire Shaman Common
8: Target player loses 3 life and you gain 3 life
3/1
Death Cultist B
Creature - Human Wizard Common
Sacrifice ~this~: Target player loses 1 life and you gain 1 life
Induce Despair 2B
Instant Common
As an additional cost to cast, reveal a creature cards from your hand
Target Creature gets -X/-X until eot where X is the CMC of the revealed card
Nirkana Cutthrough 2B
Creature - Vampire Warrior Uncommon
Level Up 2B 3/2
1-2 Deathtouch 4/3
3+ First Strike, Deathtouch 5/4
Null Champion 1B
Creature - Zombie Warrior Common
Level Up 3 1/1
1-3 4/2
4+ B: Regenerate ~this~ 7/3
Skeletal Wurm 7B
Creature - Skeleton Wurm Uncommon
B: Regenerate ~this~
7/6
Champion's Drake 1U
Creature - Drake Common
Flying
~this~ gets +3/+3 as long as you control a creature with three or more level counters on it
1/1
Eel Umbra 1U
Enchantment - Aura Common
Flash
Enchant Creature
Enchanted creature gets +1/+1
Totem Armor
Recurring Insight 4UU
Sorcery Rare
Draw cards equal to the number of cards in target opponent's hand
Rebound
Ikirial Outrider 1W
Creature - Human Soldier Common
Level Up 4 1/2
1-3 Vigilance 2/6
4+ Vigilance 3/10
Kabira Vindicator 3W
Creature - Human Knight Uncommon
Level up 2W 2/4
2-4 Other creatures you control get +1/+1 3/6
5+ Other creatures you contrl get +2/+2 4/8
Smite W
Instant - Common
Destroy target blocked Creature
Dawnglare Invoker 2W
Creature - Kor Wizard Common
Flying
8: Tap all creatures target player controls
2/1
Halimar Wavewatch 1U
Creature - Merfolk Wizard Common
level up 2 2/3
1-4 0/6
5+ Islandwalk 6/6
Jwari Scuttler 2U
Creature - Crab Common
2/3
Dread Drone 4B
Creature - Edlrazi Drone Common
When ~this~ etb, put 2 0/1 drones into play with "sac: add 1 to your mana pool"
4/1
Zof Shade 3B
Creature - Shade Common
2B: ~this~ gets +2/+2 until eot
2/2
Living Destiny 3G
Instant Common
As an additional cost to cast, reveal a creature card from your hand
You gain life equal to the CMC of the creature
Reinforced Bulwark 3
Creature - Wall Common
Defender
Tap: Prevent the next 1 damage that would be dealt to you this turn
0/4
They're all in the FAQ. Go to the link from the original post.