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  • 1

    posted a message on [M20] Core Set Magic 2020 Previews: Modern Discussion
    Loaming Shaman has seen limited play as a Chord bullet against graveyards. That role has been taken over by Remorseful Cleric.

    If you're green and combo, you want Veil of Summer. It's basically the green Silence. Trades with a counterspell (even Dovin's Veto) or discard spell and draws you a card for your trouble.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 2

    posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion Thread
    Quote from Lectrys »

    There are some controversial cards and/or some cards I think have promise in at least one deck that you didn't cover above; what do you think about them?

    Alright, since you asked nicely:
    - Hexdrinker: this sort of mana sink card never does well. Figure of Destiny, Student of Warfare, Warden of the First Tree, Kessig Prowler...the irony is that it gains protection from instants, but its ability must be activated at sorcery speed.
    - Splicer's Skill: hardcasting it is nothing special. Splicing it is quite expensive. Even if your deck is nothing but 1-mana instants or sorceries, you can't splice this until turn 5.
    - Winds of Abandon: about as good as Declaration in Stone. 2 mana, sorcery, with drawback.
    - Wing Shards: good players play spells during their second main phase (corollary: good players don't play prowess decks trollface ) so you can expect to kill one attacker with this.
    - Mirrodin Besieged: harder-to-kill alternative to Sai (Saheeli is primarily used in Phoenix so she doesn't count). Playable for this reason, but not spectacular - Sai is a SB card.
    - Winter's Rest: Narcolepsy.
    - Crypt Rats: what are you hoping to accomplish with this card? If you want to Wrath, play wraths.
    - Dead of Winter: unlike On Thin Ice it needs more than one snow land to be good. I think the possibility of maybe having it be a Damnation/Languish for one mana cheaper isn't worth the deckbuilding constraint.
    - First-Sphere Gargantua: this is a payoff for looting that doesn't require you to jump through hoops like reanimating another creature or playing two creatures in one turn - you just pay mana for it (gasp!) instead. Unfortunately I think that makes it a bit too fair.
    - Nether Spirit: not worth the deckbuilding constraint. You almost certainly have other creatures in your deck, yes, even the fair decks (Snapcaster Mage).
    - Ransack the Lab: too expensive at 2 mana.
    - Sling-Gang Lieutenant: seems pretty expensive, and we don't have Goblin Lackey to make that a non-issue. The good Goblin deck in Modern has a curve that stops at 2.
    - Shatter Assumptions: doesn't seem great against Tron. It's not cheap enough to rip out their land search cards, so they will have Tron, and once they do they are but a topdeck away from getting back into the game after you shatter their assumptions.
    - Yawgmoth, Thran Physician: Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet seems better at 4. Helps you when you're behind, etc.
    - Aria of Flame: Guttersnipe.
    - Geomancer's Gambit: this is like Field of Ruin in spell form, except it is not an instant. Pass.
    - Goblin Engineer: PV had a rather amusing Modern Horizons review article which could just have been titled "First Impressions of Goblin Engineer". He does make very convincing arguments for the card. It's a tough call, but I think it's more trouble than it's worth. For the sake of a balanced view I'll list out what I don't like about Engineer:
    1) The reanimation ability requires sacrificing an artifact, marring the Stoneforge Mystic comparison. Sometimes the artifact you sacrifice is going to be the weak link that lets your opponent dismantle your lock.
    2) It introduces vulnerability to the deck. Yes, you can get back your Bridge through other ways if they kill your Engineer, but that takes time and your opponent can mount an attack while you're defenseless.
    3) Abrade answers Engineer if you draw it and your other lock pieces if you don't.
    - Igneous Elemental: this is not playable even if it always cost 2RR and didn't have the land check.
    - Magmatic Sinkhole: Harvest Pyre, but better. It kills both Crackling Drake and Gurmag Angler while Flame Slash or Roast would miss one of the two, and PWs are no longer safe if they go for the + (well, other than every Karn). Playable in fair UR decks as complementary removal to Bolt.
    - Ore-Scale Guardian: Q: How much does this need to be reduced by for it to be a good deal? A: Maybe four. Q: Can you get that many lands into your graveyard quick enough? A: Probably not. Even if you crack fetches from turn 1-3 you still need one more land through some other means.
    - Tectonic Reformation: Doesn't seem much better than Molten Vortex, which makes lands in your hand have R: Shock instead of R: draw 1.
    - Throes of Chaos: 4 mana for a random spell that costs less than 4 mana sounds like a bad deal.
    - Ayula's Influence: hampered by its mana cost. In Life from the Loam decks you want red on turn 1 for Looting to dump lands and Loam in your graveyard. R on turn 1 into RG on turn 2 (for Wrenn/Loam) into RRR on turn 3 for Seismic Assault is easily achievable. If turn 3 is Ayula's Influence, it's technically still doable, but your mana base will be heavier on basic Forests so you might miss those T1 Lootings more often.
    - Genesis: too expensive.
    - Llanowar Tribe: trite, but dies to Bolt. If you are playing some kind of devotion deck with Leyline of Vitality then it just flips the bird to Bolt, but that seems a little inconsistent, even with the London mulligan.
    - Regrowth: probably not good enough. The cards that dump themselves in the graveyard after use are instants and sorceries, and we have Snapcaster Mage to get those back.
    - Wall of Blossoms: the OG Wall of Omens, and about as good in the current meta (which is to say, not very). There are decks that want it - Astral Drift is one of them - but I'm not a believer in those decks.
    - Weather the Storm: this is not a counter to Storm, they will have enough resources to Grapeshot a second and then third time on the same turn. It is a counter to Burn about as much as Nourish is, i.e. if you're willing to play a card that only counters Burn and is dead in all other matchups, it's there.
    - Winding Way: not good, I posted about this already.
    - Collected Conjuring: sorcery only kills it. The fun things like Bolts and rituals are instants.
    - Ruination Rioter: Like Ore-Scale Guardian, I ask "how much damage does this need to do?" My answer is probably 3; Viashino Pyromancer is unplayable at 2 and player/PW only. That's one less than Guardian, but still a lot of fetches that need to be cracked. Don't play this in a Loam deck of any kind; the whole point of Loam is to get lands out of your graveyard.
    - Altar of Dementia: As a Johnny I really like this card since it not only sacs for free but also kills them directly, unlike Viscera Seer/Carrion Feeder/Greater Gargadon. Before this, there was Blasting Station, which was 1 mana too expensive. The Spike in me says that they're never going to print a creature that can be sacced infinitely by itself, so your combo is going to involve at least three pieces (Altar, recurring dude, enabler for recurring dude), one of which can't be grabbed with Collected Company.
    - Fountain of Ichor: just play a manland instead.
    - Cave of Temptation: see Fountain of Ichor.
    - Frostwalk Bastion: oh hey, a manland. Unfortunately, it doesn't tap for colored mana, and Field of Ruin isn't worth cutting for it.
    - Prismatic Vista: not playable. In mono-color you shouldn't be playing fetches. In 2-color, use the on-color fetches. If you need more, the question is whether you would rather be able to fetch main color basic + shockland (with an off-color fetch) or main color basic + secondary color basic (with Vista), and I think you'll find the answer to be the former. In 3-color, use fetches in every combination of your colors instead.
    - Cloudshredder Sliver: pseudo Heritage Druid + Nettle Sentinel combo when paired with Gemhide Sliver or Manaweft Sliver. The main difference is that each piece is more expensive than the Elves, and multiple Cloudshredders don't stack like multiple Sentinels.
    - Dregscape Sliver: feels too defensive. You either have to wait for your Slivers to die, or go through the trouble of discarding them yourself. If you're playing the 16 rainbow land mana base, you can't play Looting, and Ancient Ziggurat won't pay for unearth.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 1

    posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion Thread
    I only do these for Standard sets. It's only been one month after War of the Spark and while some winners and losers are emerging (Blast Zone, Karn, blue PWs good, Neoform not good) let's not get too hasty on those, shall we?

    On Horizons itself, it's a nostalgia set so a lot of cards are going to be subject to rose tinted glasses. Cards that were once good in Standard, Extended, or the early days of Legacy might not cut it in current Modern.
    - Giver of Runes
    - On Thin Ice. Path is still the boss, but this is an acceptable 5th removal spell in UW.
    - Serra the Benevolent
    - Force of Negation
    - Carrion Feeder
    - Mind Rake. Making yourself discard turns on Ensnaring Bridge faster.
    - Plague Engineer
    - Unearth
    - Firebolt. Its usefulness is tempered somewhat by the fact that Snapcaster Mage exists.
    - Lava Dart, but only for prowess decks.
    - Pillage. This card can be hard to cast in Ponza as it plays upwards of six basic Forests, so it's not the automatic upgrade that everyone seems to think it is (Q: why is Ponza playing Stone Rain when Molten Rain exists?) It is, however, a good SB card that hits two types of decks, in the same vein as Abrade or Damping Sphere.
    - Shenanigans, aka "can't Cage this" and "how does it feel to draw 2 mana Vindicates for the rest of the game"
    - Collector Ouphe
    - Crashing Footfalls. I'm probably too hopeful on this one.
    - Force of Vigor
    - Scale Up
    - Eladamri's Call
    - Kaya's Guile. Shame about the color combination though.
    - Wrenn and Six. Loam has some problems (bad vs combo and persistent grave hate) but I believe they are solvable. I don't think this card is great in non-Loam midrange decks though.
    - Scrapyard Recombiner
    - Cycling lands
    - Horizon Canopy-type lands
    - Hall of Heliod's Generosity
    - Astral Drift. If you're looking to abuse ETBs, Restoration Angel takes up fewer deck slots (you don't need to play cyclers with it) and provides immediate board presence. Snapcaster Mage + Restoration Angel was once a legitimate strategy in 2012 Modern, and even that seems better than Eternal Witness + Astral Drift + a bunch of other cyclers. Also relevant: damage on the stack doesn't exist any more.
    - Ranger-Captain of Eos. Controversial opinion! Yes, Ranger of Eos was a playable card. What kind of stuff has Ranger traditionally been used to get?
    Death's Shadows
    Serra Ascendant + Martyr of Sands
    Heritage Druid + Nettle Sentinel
    Champion of the Parish + Norin the Wary (I know, I play weird decks)
    Two things stand out here:
    1) Most 1-drops suck on turn 5 (4 with acceleration) so Ranger usually ends up getting a 2-card combo. Ranger-Captain only gets one guy at a time.
    2) Ranger is easily splashable with only one white in its cost. Ranger-Captain has two white. I don't want to try fitting this into a DS deck.
    - Vesperlark
    - Archmage's Charm. What makes Cryptic Command so good is that it covers all your bases. If your opponent is going to attack, you tap his creatures before combat and draw a card. If your opponent casts a spell, you counter it and draw a card. Rarely will your opponent not do either of the above unless the game is already out of his reach, but you're OK with that anyway; your deck is set up to win a long game, so both players draw-going benefits you. Archmage's Charm doesn't cover you when your opponent attacks.
    - Echo of Eons
    - Fact or Fiction
    - Marit Lage's Slumber
    - Prohibit. This card never trades up on mana, and is quite bad on the draw when they start casting 3s and you're on 2 lands (Spell Snare is good because it lets you fight back from behind). It's a bit like Spellstutter Sprite in that sense, but Spellstutter has Bitterblossom (and isn't great even with it). Prohibit has...Baral? Anyway, it's probably not a good idea to go deep on counterspells when one of the tier 1 decks plays Cavern of Souls.
    - Tribute Mage
    - Urza, Lord High Artificer. He's not good when you're behind, and the Unexpected Results ability is at odds with your deck probably consisting of a lot of 0-mana artifacts.
    - Cabal Therapist
    - Force of Despair. There's multiple ways to look at this card; if you see it as a Wrath, you need to draw it before they start dumping their hand. If you see it as Cradle to Grave, whatever you're killing had better be worth 2-for-1ing yourself. It's quite a headache for Storm since it answers both Baral, Chief of Compliance and Empty the Warrens.
    - Goblin Matron. No Goblin Ringleader Frown
    - Seasoned Pyromancer. As a discard outlet it's nothing spectacular, you could have discarded one or two turns ago with Looting/Reunion. In theory fair black decks that play discard should want it, since discard gets worse as the game drags on so you'll have useless spells to pitch, and if you trade your discard spells for cards in the opponent's hand and end up hellbent then there's no drawback. The problematic scenario is when you're holding removal in your hand and want to advance your board with Pyromancer - if you cast it and discard your removal, you could be left without an answer in the two draws it grants you.
    - Nimble Mongoose. The LD tools that Legacy has (Wasteland, Stifle) aren't in Modern, and without them it's hard to make Mongoose a 3/3 and keep your opponent from doing stuff at the same time.
    - Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis. This is another one of those cards that does nothing when you're behind, "behind" being defined as "not having at least two creatures on the field".
    - Ice-Fang Coatl
    - Kess, Dissident Mage. This was the card that demonstrated the problem with foil-only printings in paper before Nexus of Fate. Once upon a time it was played in Legacy, then Deathrite Shaman got banned and that was the end of it.
    - Unsettled Mariner. Humans and Spirits already have plenty of ways to protect their creatures, a lot of which are on the "hard" side (Kitesail Freebooter, Meddling Mage, Drogskol Captain, Kira, Great Glass-Spinner, Spell Queller) than the "soft" side (Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Mausoleum Wanderer). Kira is better than Kopala, Warden of Waves in Merfolk, and Monastery Siege is unplayable if these are any indication. More importantly, the soft counters stop combo decks from going off and not just their wincons - if you don't stop them from going off, they're just going to draw their Echoing Truth, bounce your hatebear, then kill you.
    - Flusterstorm. This is only great in counter wars or against Storm. Dispel is a harder counter and Spell Pierce hits more things.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 1

    posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion Thread
    Yawgmoth is not a good card for Aristocrats. It's OK to have expensive reset spells (Return to the Ranks, Rally the Ancestors) and cheap sac outlets (Viscera Seer, Cartel Aristocrat) - your plan is to chump block/sac early, then play your reset spell and drain them out later. It's not OK to have expensive sac outlets like Yawgmoth - then your plan becomes...play a bunch of dudes early, then play Yawgmoth, sac your board, and die to attacks because you have no blockers and Yawgmoth's ability ate all your life.

    Yawgmoth is tech against Humans in the same way that Chameleon Colossus is tech against Death's Shadow. Well, until you get killed by a flying Mantis Rider or have Yawgmoth exiled to Deputy of Detention, that is. (I knew there was an upside to Deputy not being a human lol)

    Talismans are not too exciting. If you're playing some sort of artifact reanimator deck, the RW talisman/signet will either 1) give you an artifact to sac to Trash for Treasure, or 2) ramp you into Refurbish if you hit an untapped land drop next turn. The problem is there aren't any game-winning artifacts to reanimate.

    Eladamri's Call is pretty good. You pay an extra 2 mana to get your creature, just like Finale of Devastation, but Call is an instant, you don't have to pay for the creature + tutor tax all at once, and it goes to your hand so you can use it to grab our dear boi Allosaurus Rider and cast him for his alternate cost for example.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 3

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/05/2019)
    Ugin's Conjurant + Celestial Kirin was a "concern", it seems. Uh...I mean, I was aware of the combo, but it seems like a waste of word count to mention it in the same sentence as Neoform or Karn.

    P.S.
    1) a round of applause for Gitaxian Probe, which managed to get banned in Modern, Legacy, Pauper, and the next closest thing to banned in Vintage
    2) I couldn't read "Augur of Bolas was still on the table for discussion" with a straight face. Full disclosure, I don't play Pauper, so the things that make Augur ban-worthy elude me. Then again, Bloodbraid Elf was once banned, so congratulations on not making the same mistake twice, I guess?
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on [MH1] Modern Horizons Discussion Thread
    The rate on Lava Dart is actually pretty bad: 1 mana and sac a land to do a total of 2 damage. Forked Bolt does this without the land sac at sorcery speed. It does get better with prowess guys since they care about spells being cast, and works very well with The Flame of Keld since you can flash it back if it's discarded, and you get to double Bolt them if you draw it before the third lore counter.

    Sample Dart Prowess list:
    Mishra's Bauble is pretty good at hiding cards from Flame's ETB and triggering prowess/Archer. (Thermo-Alchemist, Electrostatic Field and Young Pyromancer don't trigger on Bauble, Seal, or Flame). This deck has a combo-like finish once you get the third counter on Flame, whereupon all your 1-damage burn spells and Archer suddenly become Bolts.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Let's have a look at LSV's playthrough of Neoform combo:
    R1 vs Sultai
    G1 keeps a mull to 6 with turn 2 kill. Gets IoKed T1 and dies.
    G2 keeps a mull to 6 with no lands and a Leyline of Sanctity. Stalls until turn 7, gets Griselbrand out, loses it to Assassin's Trophy but draws 14 cards. Plays Rider, loses it to Trophy again, GG.

    R2 vs Burn
    G1 mulls to 5 with all pieces for the combo except 2 lands, desperation Shoals his Rider away, dies anyway.
    G2 mulls to 5 with 2 lands and Evolution. Down to 10 life and forced to combo out on turn 4 (opp had Eidolon in play). Pact to get Rider and shuffle away a revealed Leyline (8), didn't hit the land that he needed, died. It's unlikely he would have won even if he had hit a land, given he would be down to 6 after casting Evolution, and would have died to 2 burn spells or a Path.

    R3 vs Elves
    G1 mulls to 6 with all pieces except a land. Draws the land and T2 kills.
    G2 mulls to 6 with Pact and Neoform but no lands. Never draws a land, dies.
    G3 keeps a 7 with turn 2 kill. Gets the kill.

    R4 vs 8 Rack
    G1 mulls to 6 with all pieces except a second green card to pitch to Rider. Gets hit by a bunch of discard but pieces together the win on turn 10. His opponent made a mistake by taking Noxious Revival instead of Wild Cantor with discard; NR is deader since it screw you out of new draws.
    G2 mulls to 4 with Leyline, Pact and no lands. Liliana comes down and locks the game away.
    G3 mulls to 6, missing Rider/Pact. Topdecks Rider (clutch moment #1), spends Manamorphose to filter SSG into green and draws a green card without which he doesn't have enough to pitch to Rider (clutch moment #2). Gets the kill.

    R5 vs U Tron
    G1 keeps a 7 missing Neoform/Evolution. Fails to draw it and tries Rider beatdown. Eventually draws Neoform, goes for it, gets stopped by a counterspell and dies to Karn + Lattice lock.
    G2 keeps a mull to 5 missing land and Rider/Pact. Dies uneventfully.
    Note that the games were played under old mulligan rules. The new mulligan rules will help it a little, since you get to choose your best 5/6 out of 7. If you mull to 5 or 6 and Chancellor is the 7th card down, you get to use it anyway.

    Mulliganing with the deck is very easy though: figure out how many cards you are from comboing off (you need Rider/Pact, Neoform/Evolution, and mana to cast it), and if the number is 2 or more, mull. If you're missing 2 lands then maybe you keep anyway, although this is usually followed with you questioning your life choices when you fail to draw even a second land. If you're down to 5 then just keep whatever you're dealt; yes, you might need to hit perfect draws to win, but going down to 4 hurts all the more because Rider costs two cards in hand.

    Overall his record is what I expect of the deck: despite the turn 2 kills, it's very weak to disruption and loses to itself sometimes, like mulliganing to death or not drawing Shoal (which didn't happen in his games but has in mine).

    I guess the big question now is, if the deck is an inconsistent pile but has random turn 1/2 kills, is it going to get banned? We've had decks that match this description (Cheeri0s, Blistercoil Weird) and they haven't been banned. Infect has turn 2 kills and is actually playable, but hasn't gotten anything banned other than Blazing Shoal (which happened like 100 years ago) and Probe (which fell on DS Zoo and UR Kiln Fiend too).
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    It's funny how the biggest question in fair UR decks is "what combo should I stuff in it now?" Ever since our boi Twin got banned, we've seen:
    What's going to show up next? Ral, Storm Conduit + Twincast?
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 1

    posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    I'm still convinced that the Neoform deck is too inconsistent even with the new mulligan rule. It's a deck that needs 4 cards to combo off (aka good luck against discard), can't beat a counterspell G1 except with speed or preboarding, has 3 dead draws (2 Griselbrand and the wincon), and has the possibility of fizzling by not drawing Shoal.

    People are reporting T1, T2 kills on MTGO. Here's the thing: hearing lots of reports of T1 kills just means people are playing lots of games with Neoform. Which is to be expected, since it's a shiny new card. It doesn't tell you anything about how consistently those kills happen.

    That said, while I don't think the deck is broken, it fits a criterion for, shall we say, objectionable. Namely, the "turn one: make a huge play. If you can beat it, you win; if not, I win" gameplay that has been stated as not something the designers want to encourage in Modern.

    If you literally won as soon as you casted Neoform or Evolution on Rider then the deck would be too broken, but as it stands now, you still have to play the purely luck-based subgame of "will I draw my Shoals". That's both a good and bad thing: good because the subgame has the effect of tanking the deck's win rate compared to a hypothetical world where resolving Neoform/Evo is an immediate win, bad because that drop in win rate is in the hands of luck, not skill.
    Posted in: Modern Archives
  • 5

    posted a message on [WAR] War of the Spark Previews: Modern Discussion
    A bit late for my usual reviews, but this was pretty interesting to write up.
    5
    Blast Zone

    4
    Finale of Promise
    Finale of Devastation

    3
    Narset, Parter of Veils
    Liliana's Triumph
    Dovin's Veto
    Teferi, Time Raveler
    Ashiok, Dream Render
    Karn, the Great Creator

    2
    Contentious Plan
    Finale of Revelation
    Bolas's Citadel
    Dreadhorde Arcanist
    Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin
    Angrath's Rampage
    Domri, Anarch of Bolas
    Neoform
    Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
    Emergence Zone

    1
    The rest

    Opinions on specific cards:

    Most of the PWs are basically enchantments that can be attacked (aren't they all?). Those that have an ability that cantrips (i.e. the blue ones) are better.
    Card: # of decks on mtgtop8
    As always, data includes MTGO 5-0s which are not chosen at random, so take the numbers with a pinch of salt.

    Tithe Taker: 4
    Benthic Biomancer: 17
    Pteramander: 39
    Sphinx of Foresight: 0
    Cry of the Carnarium: 3
    Drill Bit: 0
    Pestilent Spirit: 0
    Spawn of Mayhem: 4
    Electrodominance: 19
    Immolation Shaman: 0
    Light up the Stage: 69
    Rix Maadi Reveler: 1
    Skewer the Critics: 108
    Growth-Chamber Guardian: 0
    Incubation Druid: 0
    Rampage of the Clans: 2
    Wilderness Reclamation: 6
    Absorb: 37
    Bedevil: 2
    Biomancer's Familiar: 0
    Deputy of Detention: 126
    Dovin, Grand Arbiter: 0
    Emergency Powers: 0
    Growth Spiral: 9
    Gruul Spellbreaker: 4
    Judith, the Scourge Diva: 3
    Kaya, Orzhov Usurper: 33
    Lavinia, Azorius Renegade: 4
    Prime Speaker Vannifar: 8
    Rhythm of the Wild: 7
    Incubation//Incongruity: 1

    It's time again for the quarterly "hits and misses from the previous set", brought to you by yours truly.

    The big winners were Skewer the Critics, Deputy of Detention, and Light Up the Stage. Deputy has seen play in the two premier Aether Vial decks (Humans and Spirits), while the red spells have been a godsend for Burn and mono-red Phoenix. While Light up the Stage has seen plenty of play, at GPs the Light decks have been outclassed by their counterparts - Light Burn by traditional Boros and mono-red Phoenix by Izzet Phoenix. Eidolon of the Great Revel punishes opponents for cantripping to find their action; playing Light up the Stage in the same deck is hanging yourself with your own rope. Mono-red Phoenix is less consistent than Izzet Phoenix due to the lack of Serum Visions.

    Moving down the list, we have Pteramander and two surprises. Pteramander goes into Izzet Phoenix, combining desirable attributes from Monastery Swiftspear (can be played on turn 1) and Bedlam Reveler (2 mana total for a big beater). Lately, Phoenix has been moving back to Snapcaster Mage and Pyromancer Ascension in the flex slots though.

    The two surprises are...Absorb and Kaya, Orzhov Usurper! Despite both cards being released to lukewarm if not negative reception, Absorb has managed to find a way into some UW Control decks as a 1-of, and Kaya has been mainboarded in Esper and Lantern Control. I'm honestly quite surprised at Kaya; Faerie Macabre is not normally a playable card and neither is Isolate, but put them together on a 3-mana card that lets you use both effects more than once and...they are? Anyway, Ashiok from War of the Spark follows the same template (2 repeatable hate effects on a 3 mana walker), so if you want to look like a genius and/or speculate on cards, there's your pick.

    Digging a bit deeper, we've got some good news and bad news. The good news is that Ravnica Allegiance spawned multiple new deck archetypes. Well done! The bad news is they could charitably be called tier 3. Nevertheless, it's instructive to look at these decks and find out why they're stuck in that rut.

    Electrodominance: the shell for this deck is Electrodominance/As Foretold + Living End/Ancestral Vision. Casting Living End or Ancestral Vision gives you a huge amount of resources and, in Living End's case, can be enough to win the game shortly.
    Where did it go wrong? The devil is in the details. You need to play cyclers to revive with Living End, and as a result you can't play actual cantrips with card selection, like Serum Visions. Secondly, Faithless Looting decks are pretty popular, and Living End is two-sided. They can play one creature to pressure you while discarding a few more to Looting so that they've still got a board if Living End hits.

    Prime Speaker Vannifar: this Pod variant brought a lot of attention to itself (they always do - remember Evolutionary Leap and Eldritch Evolution?), along with a spike in Scryb Ranger's price. It had the same Bolt-proofness as Sai, Master Thopterist, but for a 4-drop meant for Modern play, it damn well have.
    Where did it go wrong? Vannifar decks are a lot like Bubble Hulk decks:
    1) you need to memorize a long sequence of tutor targets to search up
    2) those targets are kind of bad, and you wouldn't play them in your deck if not for the fact that you need them for the kill
    3) if any of those tutor targets is anywhere but in your library, tough titty. Sometimes if you draw one of the pieces you can hardcast it and combo off anyway. Other times that piece costs 5 or 6 mana.
    And that 4 toughness? With the continued dominance of Phoenix, decks (including Phoenix itself) have been turning to Flame Slash to get rid of Thing in the Ice and Crackling Drake. Suddenly that 4 toughness doesn't seem so invincible.

    The key lesson from Electrodominance and Vannifar is that the refrain "you win as soon as you resolve X/untap with X" is often not true on closer inspection. There's usually some kind of additional setup needed, like having certain cards in the graveyard or library, and that costs you percentage points.

    Growth Spiral, Wilderness Reclamation: the terrors of BO1 Standard made it to Modern, where they continue to... make matches go to time trollface . The deck plays out quite similarly to blue Scapeshift: you play a bunch of ramp so you can Cryptic Command on turn 3 and feed your eventual wincon, or Remand to stall them without going down on cards. It even has a tutor (Mystical Teachings) to match Bring to Light.
    Wilderness Reclamation in Modern has the leg up against other midrange/control decks; the high density of 4-CMC cards (and Mystical Teachings' flashback) means you'll out-topdeck them every time, and all that ramp allows you to out-mana them every time.
    Where did it go wrong? Well, aggro decks. Especially that pesky Burn which got another Bolt to add to its arsenal. The comparison to blue Scapeshift is apt as it traditionally has not been a good choice in an aggro-heavy meta.

    As for flops, Humans is still sticking to Gaddock Teeg over Lavinia, Azorius Renegade in their SBs. Being a Human isn't all that matters (just ask Deputy of Detention). And there can be no bigger flop than Sphinx of Foresight, a card which posed us the question, "Would you play Mystic Speculation if it cost 0 mana?" And the answer was no, because scrying 3 doesn't make up for the fact that you're effectively 1 card down.
    Posted in: Modern
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