Magic Market Index for Sep 14th, 2018
 
Magic Market Index for Sep 6th, 2018
 
Magic Market Index: Hit Over Miss
  • posted a message on [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica previews and spoilers: Modern edition
    Quote from Lectrys »
    I tested Experimental Frenzy in Affinity last night, and I must admit I have to eat my words regarding EF's power level. While EF was often flaky in Affinity, giving me only 2 cards in a turn surprisingly often, it was also plenty capable of pumping out 5(!!!) cards in a turn. Unsurprisingly, Affinity was also one of the best decks at making EF do something the turn it ETB (free stuff, mana rocks). As a late-game CA grinder and nigh-finisher, it's definitely up there with Karn, Scion of Urza. (I also must note that I blew up my own EF for the first time last night--it was to get a Galvanic Blast to close out the game.) The massive CA boost is definitely enough to compensate for Remand suddenly becoming a total haymaker against you. (It turns into Counterspell that cantrips.)


    I've been thinking about cantrips. Cards that dig to get you to EF as you don't want too many in the deck, but that are still good once it's on the field. Opt can dig but it's quite bad post EF. Serum Visions is good pre EF but actually gets better post EF as you can use it to clear a card you can't play, and then to stack your next two cards. Search for Azcanta is also quite good on both sides in both situations. Collective Brutality gets pretty great too. I think the card has a home in Jund, but I also think it could be very playable in a Grixis Midrange/Blue Jund style deck.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from Shmanka »
    I personally believe it's an economic mistake to not include Modern Legal sets in Arena. How do you not want the hottest constructed format on your newest platform?


    I think it's more of an issue in building out the cardbase. Modern has about 14,000 cards in it and Wizards doesn't really have a huge team to draw from. Adding that many cards simply takes time.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Jund
    Is anyone else interested in Experimental Frenzy? We used to play Chandra which was 4 mana for 1 card per turn, this is 4 mana for several cards per turn. And Jund has a lot of ways to manipulate the top deck to dig past a second land for some truly absurd card advantage, with Liliana the Last Hope, Grim Flayer, and Fetchlands.

    I think it's the sort of card that could make for a very powerful 1 or 2 of. For example, it runs away with the game in a board stall situation or against control.
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica previews and spoilers: Modern edition
    Quote from Lectrys »
    I don't think Experimental Frenzy is good. Preventing you from playing cards in hand blows big-time, and it's a bigger nonbo with Bob (I'm pointing this out because Aazadan mentioned that this could go into Jund). Midrange decks can't really chain that many spells every turn because they tend to have higher curves, and then half the Moon Prison decks hate this card because it nonbos with Ensnaring Bridge.


    Jund has shifted more towards Grim Flayer than Bob lately, and the deck has no problem chaining 3-4 cards together if it has enough in hand. The closest analogy I can make to it is Chandra, Pyromaster which the deck played solely for the 0 effect which was a tap out on turn 4 for +1 card per turn. This is more along the lines of a tap out on turn 4 for 3 or 4 cards per turn and you can string a lot of cards together between fetchlands, Liliana, and Grim Flayer to modify the top of your deck to ensure you're not bricked by a string of lands.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Experimental Frenzy - MTGGoldfish Twitter
    Quote from Stoogeslap »
    Wondering how this can really be utilized? What do you do w/ the cards in your hand? Maybe get them out via Madness or have discard outlets to hearken back to Hellbent? Might make an attempt at a Hellbent deck w/ a little madness in it w/ this interesting enchantment. The only snag I see is 2-lands in a row (or seeing the second land that turn). If that's case, will need a black self-mill option.

    thi
    Why do you have to do anything with the cards in your hand? Each turn, you'll probably end up drawing a land. Figure you play this on T4, you'll see 10 cards, 11 by the time you untap. This is one, 4 lands make four, probably 2 1 drops, and 2 drops (you want a very low curve to utilize this). That's 9 out of 11 cards. At the most, you're only going to have 2-3 cards in hand at this point ideally. Given the upside, that's a pretty low number of resources you're trying to maximize.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on Experimental Frenzy - MTGGoldfish Twitter
    Quote from schindar »
    It's going to sting when the top two cards are lands. Red doesn't play the Draw Go game very well.


    You have fetchlands for that. You also have the possibility of clearing it with a card like Grim Flayer in Modern Jund.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • posted a message on [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica previews and spoilers: Modern edition
    https://media-dominaria.cursecdn.com/avatars/271/84/636728797687838075.jpeg

    Experimental Frenzy

    Seems to me like it would be fantastic in Jund. On the one hand it's a 4 mana do nothing until you untap, but on the other hand so was Chandra, Pyromaster and Jund loved to play that. Jund typically has great top decks, which this plays well with. This can easily draw around 3 cards a turn on it's own, it's good with Liliana of the Veil and still retaining that card advantage, and it's good with Grim Flayer which has been seeing more play in place of Bobs.

    This is the sort of card that overwhelms the opponent the turn you untap with it. 4 mana and then win the game the turn after is pretty much what a midrange deck should be asking for from a card.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from ktkenshinx »

    Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.


    In the data I had from when it first got posted (I think you've updated it since then?) it was 45.2% against Tron and KCI was 43.3%. Other under 50% matchups in that data were Counters Company at 49.9%, Hollow One at 48.2%, Titanshift at 49.5%, and UWx Control at 48.8%
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from Mtgthewary »
    Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?


    KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from BlueTronFTW »
    A better comparison for now might be Vraska's contempt. At its peak it was over $20, but generally has been a low to mid teens price card. Trophy has more format applications, but be opened more than ixalan. $17-19 is where I'd buy a couple to hedge and if it drops further complete the set.


    I think Assassin's Trophy is overpriced. It's not a bad card by any means, but I also don't think anything other than Jund will be willing to play more than two copies.

    After supply initially catches up, I highly doubt it will be more than $10.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Sultai Midrange
    Quote from ktkenshinx »

    Thought Scour plus Angler/Tasigur is also an edge. Goyf + Stubs is strong too. I worry that Trophy doesn't fully make up for Sultai's underlying and historic weaknesses, but I do think that Snap/Trophy on its own is a potent one-for-one removal strategy.


    Trophy won't be a 4 of, but it's pretty good. It's going in my BUG list for sure, and my list can hold it's own well enough.
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Yeah, it would have been playable at that point. Oh well.

    Hold on the dream folks.

    U
    Instant
    Surviel 1, Draw 1

    Thats what I'm hoping for desperately now.


    I doubt that will happen but maybe, just maybe
    1U
    Instant
    Surveil 4, Draw 1
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on GP Detroit Discussion
    Quote from tronix »

    right...but that happens at regular events too. more people are going to play UW over UWR because its perceived to be stronger. what about team unified makes it more likely that these decks win more (ie favors)?


    Because it takes potential cards away from the other decks.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from tronix »

    doesnt seem that great against UW, so maybe now isnt the time either.


    It's not that bad. It's only slightly unfavorable based on what was reported.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    I took ktk's spreadsheet, and implemented my suggestion of multiplying by meta percent. I ended up normalizing the percent because the listed decks don't comprise the entire meta, only 69% of it. And got meta percents from mtgtop8.

    Based on that meta, here's what you could expect for win rates across the known field.
    Affinity 42.60
    Bogles 48.44
    Burn 49.92
    Counters Company 54.68
    Gx Tron 50.41
    Grixis DS 51.08
    Hollow One 48.51
    Humans 51.87
    Infect 48.16
    Jeskai Control 47.68
    Jund 44.62
    KCI 55.06
    Mardu Pyro 45.06
    Storm 49.37
    Titanshift 43.41
    UW Control 54.62

    Based on this, we can extrapolate a bit. Lets say that Affinity drops from 6% to 5%, Titanshift from 2% to 1.5%, and Jund from 3% to 2% and that UW Control goes from 11 to 12%, KCI from 4% to 6%, and Humans from 9% to 12% based on these results. That would then shift the predicted field to look like:
    Affinity 42.04
    Bogles 47.25
    Burn 49.34
    Counters Company 53.63
    Gx Tron 50.06
    Grixis DS 50.59
    Hollow One 48.38
    Humans 51.39
    Infect 47.91
    Jeskai Control 47.25
    Jund 43.86
    KCI 54.49
    Mardu Pyro 44.71
    Storm 49.30
    Titanshift 43.02
    UW Control 54.01

    Just as a hypothetical.
    Posted in: Modern
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