Trolling Warning -Cythare
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- Mr.C
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Member for 18 years, 11 months, and 13 days
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Dec 8, 20147
rancored_elf posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Huge GainersJust wait until they print power, with Wastelands and FoW as uncommon, Lightning Bolts Rancors and Sinkholes for commons, and charge $100 per pack..... it will sell out too! And 90% of the comments will be "I'm glad, it's making Magic cheaper for the players, they're just trying to help us"Posted in: Market Street Café Archive
Trolling Warning -Cythare -
Jan 24, 20141
Lorelorn posted a message on Rank the Cycle: Onslaught Pit FightersFunny, I had to double check the date of this post to make sure it wasn't from a decade agoPosted in: Opinions & Polls
At the time, Visara was my favourite. These days Silvos, Rogue Elemental is the one I would most like to see reprinted, with the same art in the new card frame. -
Jan 17, 2014
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Default User posted a message on Examination of speculation motivesWhile the OP's post was a bit scattered, there's some real issues that can be talked here and might help some members who feel bewildered or even cheated out of cheaper cards. Sorry for the wall of text, but some of the examples are pretty entertaining.Posted in: Market Street Café
MtG community has become more aware of the value of the cards since I started playing in -95 and doubly so in the last few years. Also major market places have moved to internet, letting people pull accurate price data and listed inventories easily.
This has given certain active portion of players a chance to follow card prices and hit stores who are not as vigilant and in the process make some money, which usually is funneled into making new purchases and leftovers into their collections. It's actually pretty easy and if you start with even 1k$ capital and choose your battles, even a single person can shake the market on niche cards, like commander foils.
I use some old examples how a single person can move the market. Some are even relevant.
Lot of people collect a certain alpha rares, making the price go way up. The oldest I know was alpha Pirate Ship, in 1996 this card was more expensive than most alpha Moxen. When the guy stopped buying every copy from eBay and UseNet, the price slowly dropped.
Magic Rarities group had a 5% race with alpha uncommons, aiming to get 5% of the total alpha print run of freely chosen alpha uncommon. The threads are still availlable on Librarities archive and are fun read. Alpha cards like Goblin Balloon Brigade and Dragon Whelp tripled in price, when the race heated up. To this day the Whelp is bit higher than it should be, while Brigade has dropped back down.
SCG bought from eBay a collectors set of 11% of all alpha Island Sanctuarys. During that time Sanctuary was 120$, while random alpha rares were still 15$ each. There was a guy aiming to get 5% of all the alpha Underground Seas also... That's just 55 alpha Seas.
When alpha and beta duals jumped few weeks after revised had already moved, I went out and bought SCG and several other vendors out, aiming to get a full set of 40 alpha/beta duals while I still could. During that time, I paid 5.4k€ for the full set of 40 a/b duals. I did even end with some extras. But had I had more capital... Just remembering all those beta Volcanic Islands availlable at below 300$.
Last year there was an European buy-out of GURU-lands. The price has been steadily stayed around 300€ per set, before a certain german buyer bought 17+ of each. Everything except Mountains. Mountains stayed at 50 € each, while Plains moved to 110 €. Then somebody made a move on Mountains. Now full set sells for 490-550 € depending on condition, but very slowly. I doubt that the buyer has made any money, but at least he has cool lands for his decks.
One messed up buy-out was Cloudstone Curio just before PT Hollywood (the one with elves-decks everywhere). A group of people, who, most likely, had been playtesting Elves with Curio decided to buy the card out. During that time it was possible to put the cards on shopping cart for 24 hours without actually buying them on MCM, so they made a few fake accounts (this is hearsay by the way, so please fix my mistakes, if you know better) and hid all the cheaper copies and put new ones on sale for 10 € each. The high price lasted for two days, before all the reserved copies returned and all below 3 € were bought out.
I had my playset I was selling reserved at 5 € each and was really happy to get such a price... and not too happy when the reservation just disappeared 24 hours later. I don't know if the group actually made some money out of the deal, but the way MCM works sure got changed. Now you would need 20+ fake accounts before getting this done.
These are real ways for single persons or small groups to move the market. Often there's a real incentive for the price to move and if there isn't, a crash follows the jump. There are plenty of examples of this also. Aluren might be the newest one, but Wasteland has seen similar jump/crash, I think twice now.
I like to play this game and I like having access to all the cards. This makes speculation a handy way to get cards I want bit cheaper and sometimes paying for my purchases. While I was student, I paid the bills by buyiong collections and selling cards. So while I don't like the buy-outs, I like to understand how they work and will sell my extra copies into the hype, and sometimes buy a playset, if I catch the wave early enough.
Almost two years back I got tired of not understanding how the buy-out brigade could profit, so I modelled a worldwide buy-out on Judge foil Sword of Fire and Ice (which was bottomed out just then). I searched the net for reasonable amount of stores and made a price estimate including postage and a plan on accuiring the cards. First buying about 40 copies slowly from different sources before making the first buy-out, when I had my initial supply in hand. After this buy-out I would list my copies at 50$ and wait until other sellers would start putting their backroom stock on sale at around 40$ before buying them all out again. At this point the 50$ copies should start selling and the first batch of bought copies start arriving.
I still have the excel-sheet somewhere, but in the end I ended using about 8.5k$ and would need to sell 73% of the copies befor getting even if through eBay or bit more if to store buylists. In the end unless I could keep the price at 50$, there was no way to turn quick profit on the Swords. Naturally Sword being spoiled being in MMa would have made a huge loss, unless the imaginary seller could have moved over 300 copies of the Sword in less than a year. If the price would have moved to 60$ the profit margins were bit better, but still it's not instant profit.
Last year I also did some quick calculations on a legends card and found it a it better target, with just 4k$ needed and could even use the availlability of italian copies here in Europe to a good effect, but ultimately I will make much more money from doing my regular work.
I'm a collector, so I can understand very well the guys wanting to own 2% of some print run, even when it will make other people trying to get a full set of something much harder. These collectors have similar effects than the guys wanting to buy-out some card and make mad profits. I'm all for somehow making magic cards harder to buy out, but most of the ways to do this will just make selling and buying harder and making players less exited about the collectibility aspect of the game. That I don't want.
So in brief, I like that players have access to most of the cards, but I also like how a hobby I started almost 20 years back can give me some of the money I invested back. There should also be some cards that are hard to get. Maybe it's a playset of dual lands, or for some people the BGS 10 Alpha Lotus or a playset of Wyvern backed Fallen Empires or the summer Lightning Bolt (for me), but every collector should have something to reach for.
But getting there should also be possible. This is something that new players should also feel, otherwise they will get burned out and just quit. If lot of cards suddenly become nearly impossible for new players to get, or they buy at the peaked price time and again, they will feel cheated. Or they sell cards and next week they notice the price being double what they got. That's not healthy for the game.
As for the bubble, I feel there are small bubbles on Modern cards and almost every presale price is built on a small bubble, but those are normal. But if the speculation accelerates and real buy-outs become more common, there will be trouble. The last weeks Cabal Therapy jump should hold a lesson for most of us.
There was a glitch on TCG-player, which somehow made the price show only Therapy foils, which moved the price to 20$. This resulted in a wave of buyers to eBay and as the card is a Torment uncommon, the supply couldn't keep up and prices soared. Stores pulled their stock and upped the price and more and more new buyers jumped into the fray making Therapy now a 16$ card. One with two foil reprints. The card was most likely underpriced, but this shows how accustomed players are to these jumps. Most don't even ask why the card moved, it's just "I want, I want, I want..."
This post is already long enough, I could keep it going, but at some point there will be a limit on card liquidity if the prices keep moving at this pace. -
Dec 25, 20131
FlossedBeaver posted a message on [[M14]] Kalonian HydraPosted in: The Rumor MillQuote from DTG99BNG is set to release soon, closing the window the Hydra had to make a legitimate impact on the meta IMO (it's the type of card that likes smaller card pools). All those BSA, Thundermaw, "this card is going to dominate the meta" comments are looking sillier and sillier by the month.
How much mana did you have to pump into Immortal Servitude to resurrect this thread? -
Sep 24, 20132
Igzex posted a message on New Abyss ArtworkI love how the guy being sucked into the abyss looks so nonchalant about it.Posted in: The Rumor Mill
"Oh boy. The enemy is playing stax again. It's always us soldier tokens first." -
Jul 31, 201326
Serafiend posted a message on Modern Masters 2 - Electric Boogaloojust remember wotc, be sure to keep that print run in check. we don't wanna upset players of mtg: the stock market, after all.Posted in: Speculation -
Jul 27, 2013
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Encendi posted a message on Large collection InquiryI'd really suggest breaking it up. The hour you spend listing the stuff would probably earn you an extra 1-2 grand.Posted in: Market Street Café
Do you regularly earn 1-2k an hour at your job? -
Jun 24, 2013
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jeffbcrandall posted a message on Sealed Modern MastersAs many people here know, I've been selling on ebay for over 10 years now, and am currently a top-rated powerseller there. I also owned/ran the magic singles collection for a local shop for 6 years. I have always sold at the low end of ebay prices. And continue to do so to this day. Last year alone I did $150,000 in sales at the shop, and another $100,000 in sales on ebay. Just to give some background of my experience on this.Posted in: Market Street Café
Now then, that said, here is, similar to the running tally threads for the standard-legal sets, a listing of the values for the mythics and rares for modern masters: These prices always have an emphasis on ebay (price excluding a reasonable cost for shipping), because ebay is where the average random individual is going to have the greatest likelihood to be able to offload the contents of their modern masters boxes. When we discuss values around here, ebay or tcgplayer are often the references being used. For some able to get more locally or who own a store or who are wanting to base values on SCG, that's not going to match up obviously:
Mythics:
Tarmogoyf: $120
Dark Confidant: $60
Vendilion Clique: $37
Sword of Fire and Ice: $25
Sword of Light and Shadow: $20
Elspeth Knight Errant: $20
Kiki-Jiki Mirror Breaker: $16
Vedalken Shackles: $10
Progenitus: $10
Sarkhan Vol: $10
Kokusho the Evening Star: $9
Yosei the Morning Star: $6
Keiga the Tide Star: $4
Jugan the Rising Star: $2
Ryusei the Falling Star: $1
Total value of mythics: $350
(If I can go buy them right now on ebay at these prices, and in multiples, then yes, that is what the cards are actually worth.)
Rares:
Cryptic Command: $18
Doubling Season: $14
Arcbound Ravager: $14
Aether Vial: $9
Pact of Negation: $9
Maelstrom Pulse: $8
Glimmervoid: $8
Blinkmoth Nexus: $8
Engineered Explosives: $7
Academy Ruins: $6
Glen Elendra Archmage: $6
Blood Moon: $6
Tooth and Nail: $6
Chalice of the Void: $6
Summoner's Pact: $5
Kira Great Glass Spinner: $5
Knight of the Reliquary: $5
Gifts Ungiven: $5
Lotus Bloom: $5
Bridge from Below: $5
Woodfall Primus: $4.50
Grand Arbiter Augustine: $4
Ethersworn Canonist: $4
City of Brass: $4
Divinity of Pride: $3
Kataki War's Wage: $3
Life from the Loam: $3
Adarkar Valkyrie: $3
Figure of Destiny: $3
Demigod of Revenge: $3
Extirpate: $3
Tombstalker: $2.50
Reveillark: $2
Stonehewer Giant: $2
Jhoira of the Ghitu: $2
Scion of Oona: $2
Squee Goblin Nabob: $2
Oona Queen of the Fae: $2
Everything else is $1 or less (but still calculated into the total)
Total value of rares: $213
(Once again, if I can go online right now and buy them in multiples at this price, then that's what they are worth.)
Uncommons:
Kitchen Finks: $4.50
Path to Exile: $4
Spell Snare: $3
Lightning Helix: $3
Eternal Witness: $2
Mind Funeral: $1.50
Manamorphose: $1.50
Paradise Mantle: $1.50
Electrolyze: $1
Trygon Predator: $1
Relic of Progenitus: $1
Krosan Grip: .75
Narcomoeba: .75
Tidehollow Sculler: .50
Desperate Ritual: .50
Flickerwisp: .50
Murderous Redcap: .50
Myr Retreiver: .50
Shrapnel Blast: .25
Mad Auntie: .25
Vivid Creek: .25
Vivid Meadow: .25
Vivid Marsh: .25
Vivid Crag: .25
Vivid Grove: .25
Riftsweeper: .25
Mulldrifter: .25
Thirst for Knowledge: .25
Epochrasite: .25
Masked Admirers: .25
Tribal Flames: .20
Worm Harvest: .20
Take Possession: .20
Reach of Branches: .20
Plumeveil: .20
Dakmor Salvage: .20
(Everything else is .15 or less and would be near impossible to sell online)
Total value of Uncommons: $32
(Once again, if I can go online right now and buy them in multiples at this price, then that's what they are worth.)
Commons:
Lava Spike: .75
Street Wraith: .50
Rift Bolt: .50
Kodama's Reach: .40
Etherium Sculptor: .40
Empty the Warrens: .35
Grapeshot: .25
Spellstutter Sprite: .25
Echoing Truth: .25
Myr Enforcer: .20
Faerie Macabre: .20
Mogg War Marshal: .20
Search for Tomorrows: .15
Frogmite: .15
(Everything else is .10 or less, and would be near impossible to sell online)
Total value of commons: $4.50
Now then. Lets run the numbers.
Mythics: $350/15 = $23/mythic
Rares: $213/53 = $4/rare
Uncommons: $32/set of easily sellable uncommons
Commons: $4.50/set of easily sellable commons
Now for box breakdowns:
Mythics: $23/mythic x 3 mythics/box = $69/box
Rares: $4/rare x 21 rares/box = $84/box
Uncommons: $32/set x 1.2 sets/box = $38/box
Commons: $4.50/set x 2.4 sets/box = $11/box
Foils: Ill concede a value of: $45/box
Total overall average box value: $247 (so we'll call it $250)
These numbers are what the average person could be expected to turn around their boxed singles for within a relatively short period of time. If you are looking at taking 1-2 months or more to sell off the singles, and using local resources (especially places used to SCG or similar prices), then you can certainly get more.
I'm looking at what these cards are readily available for at this very moment, being able to be bought in multiples at. I could go online right now and find each and every one of these cards in multiples from a single seller or individuals from multiple sellers at the prices I have shown.
If someone can get more for these cards themselves, then more power to you, but these prices are what people could reasonably expect to get if selling on ebay, or even selling using the new tcgplayer features for regular individuals if they want people to pay attention to their prices, for example.
I hope my expanded data helps anyone understand better where I am coming from, and hopefully someone will find the price list for Modern Masters useful at the same time :). -
May 29, 20135
St@rWizard posted a message on Candy coated MM'sI don't even know who you are, so I couldn't care less about you being bitter about people not believing in you, butPosted in: Rumor Mill Archive
1. We know all the Mythics
2. We know almost all the Rares
3. We basically know everything except confirmation on Thoughtseize, Noble Hierarch and Mutavault really being left out
4. The full spoiler is in what, 4 days?
This really is not the correct product/timing to use as a way to tease us/ask for forgiveness/demand attention.
Okay, darling? - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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You sure that's the detective's name?
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The entire growth and price explosion of Legacy revolved around the exposure in the SCG Open Series. Prices will flatline for a while, but the writing is on the proverbial wall.
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So why did the list go through a bunch of iterations? Makes no sense.
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