I'll be the first to say cut portent for brainstorm or even ponder. Your creature suite needs some work to, it looks like you have multiple creatures that will just clog up your hand instead of being in play. Is there a reason for no stoneforge?
But you get to cast Portent through Spirit!
Stoneforge seemed win-more. This is a prison deck. You have the traditional Legacy lock of countertop, along with the ability to lock them out of their draw step by Cliquing them with Spirit in play. Karakas allows you to rebuy the Clique trigger, and Teferi absolutely closes the door if they have to play at sorcery speed and we're bottoming their draw every turn. I'm well-aware that Teferi seems VERY ambitious, but it seems worth trying out.
Second, the deck doesn't lose to Abrupt Decay deck, at least not because of Abrupt Decay.
Third, there're different builds, Entreat build and Rip-Helm build are very different, which one did you pick up.
Fourth, the deck has no shot against 12 Posts.
Last but not the least, the learning curve of this deck is Steep. Allow me to stress this by repeating, it takes Time to learn all the intricate decision-makings and you might still end up with lots of draws. You cannot let the frustrations getting to you.
I wouldn't call the 12 Post matchup unwinnable. I've played against it twice in major events, once in a win-and-in at an Open and once in the 4-1 or 5-1 bracket at Legacy Champs last fall. In the win-and-in, I punted away the on-board kill (on camera, no less) that would have put me into the top 8. In Philly, game three went long enough that when they cast Emrakul, I responded by putting eight angels into play, leaving me with enough to feed annihilator and kill on the swing back. The easiest way to win, outside of the variance of one player flooding out/getting land-screwed, is Blood Moon. I didn't have access to it in either of my matches. Without Moon, it really comes down to whether we can establish CounterTop in the first three turns AND have Clique to start getting the beats in before their inevitability takes over. You're right, it's damn hard, but I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
Is it worth going to black over Vindicate when we have Unexpectedly Absent, though? Yeah, double white is annoying, but it's certainly easier than committing to a different color. Instant speed is also nice.
In other news, I've started working on my own primer for this deck. This is part one of two, because I want this to be a pretty in depth guide, and 6k words is my breaking point for one week . Any feedback is appreciated, particularly with regards to whether I glossed over some detail that I mistook for common knowledge.. I've spent so many hours playing this archetype, that I may have forgotten about things that might not be immediately obvious to someone trying to learn it, and neglected to fully explain something.
Annoying to read when people believe that before Ari Lax, Death and taxes, was just annoying and never winning...
Finn built the deck, Thomas Enevoldsen took it to the top with a few tweaks (Yes: FEW, the core from Finn is still there) and ari lax profited.
Overall nice read.
Hey, I replied on the actual post as well, but I did not mean to give off the impression that Ari "made the deck good." We'll aware that it took down the euro GP this year, before Ari's win. I just wanted to reference the result of a recent high profile event that is still fresh in everyone's mind.
Going to DC? Not 100% sure how all the other popular decks in the metagame play out? This one's for you! I pretty much go through some of the more popular archetypes and explain how to identify them as early as turn one (knowing what you're up against is a HUGE part of the battle), how they plan to kill you, and what you need to play around/be mindful of.
I ended up placing 14th at the Legacy Championships with something similar to the Joe Lossett version (I play 1-2 different cards, one of which replaces a land, because I prefer to play 22; sb deviates a bit more from his). So annoying that one of my two losses on the day was to Elves, a deck that I never lose to. The amount of play that Venser gives you is incredible. He's quickly become one of my favorite cards.
No thank you.
Does anyone know why Cavern of Souls isn't legacy playable in tribal decks such as elves, goblins, slivers?
Goblins usually plays it, especially if they're running Thalia. It's too important that they resolve some of their cards are too important to resolve, like Matron and Ringleader. Elves typically doesn't play it for the following reasons:
-They don't need to resolve specific creatures as badly as Goblins because Glimpse triggers on casting, and most of the cards are cheap, interchangeable parts.
-Their arguably most important creature (symbiote) is not an elf.
-It makes it difficult for them to cast Abrupt Decay and post-board discard spells
-To a lesser extent, forests matter for Quirion Ranger tricks
Can the data you have provide insight to how often I'll see certain decks beyond the best ones?
For example, are you able to create a model that can show me weather to bring all, some, or none of the dredge hate?
It's very hard to draw meaningful conclusions on what you're likely to see in the first rounds or what you're likely to see in the x-3 bracket, as the only readily available data we have are top 16s. Because of the diversity of the format, you're very much at the mercy of pairings variance until you're a few rounds in (with a good record). The best advice I can give you for reducing pairings variance is this: you have three weeks until DC, so go win a GPT. Two byes will go a long way towards bringing your expected third round field closer to these results.
Just out of curiousity, would people be interested in seeing an analysis like this done on the national level (perhaps also using a weighted method where weight is assigned by distance from DC)? Maybe a comparison of national data vs regional data? Or do you think the marginal value gained from a national analysis over the initial regional analysis wouldn't be worthwhile? If people are interested, I can look into it for next week. For those looking for more hard-hitting statistical analysis, sorrrry.. I've just chosen to write somewhat of a fluff piece on the Legacy implications of the new batch of Commander cards for this week.
fixed it for you
But you get to cast Portent through Spirit!
Stoneforge seemed win-more. This is a prison deck. You have the traditional Legacy lock of countertop, along with the ability to lock them out of their draw step by Cliquing them with Spirit in play. Karakas allows you to rebuy the Clique trigger, and Teferi absolutely closes the door if they have to play at sorcery speed and we're bottoming their draw every turn. I'm well-aware that Teferi seems VERY ambitious, but it seems worth trying out.
http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2014/01/hope-eternal-something-old-something-new-something-borrowed-something-blue/
1 Mangara of Corondor
4 Spirit of the Labyrinth
1 Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir
1 Thassa, God of the Sea
3 Vendilion Clique
2 Venser, Shaper Savant
Spells (25)
4 Aether Vial
4 Sensei’s Divining Top
3 Counterbalance
1 Flusterstorm
3 Force of Will
1 Misdirection
2 Spell Pierce
3 Swords to Plowshares
4 Portent
4 Flooded Strand
4 Island
3 Karakas
2 Plains
2 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
3 Tundra
3 Wasteland
I wouldn't call the 12 Post matchup unwinnable. I've played against it twice in major events, once in a win-and-in at an Open and once in the 4-1 or 5-1 bracket at Legacy Champs last fall. In the win-and-in, I punted away the on-board kill (on camera, no less) that would have put me into the top 8. In Philly, game three went long enough that when they cast Emrakul, I responded by putting eight angels into play, leaving me with enough to feed annihilator and kill on the swing back. The easiest way to win, outside of the variance of one player flooding out/getting land-screwed, is Blood Moon. I didn't have access to it in either of my matches. Without Moon, it really comes down to whether we can establish CounterTop in the first three turns AND have Clique to start getting the beats in before their inevitability takes over. You're right, it's damn hard, but I don't believe in the no-win scenario.
In other news, I've started working on my own primer for this deck. This is part one of two, because I want this to be a pretty in depth guide, and 6k words is my breaking point for one week . Any feedback is appreciated, particularly with regards to whether I glossed over some detail that I mistook for common knowledge.. I've spent so many hours playing this archetype, that I may have forgotten about things that might not be immediately obvious to someone trying to learn it, and neglected to fully explain something.
http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2013/12/hope-eternal-last-article-will-ever-write-miracles/
Also, panavision, do I know you? You don't play at 20 sided by any chance, do you?
Hey, I replied on the actual post as well, but I did not mean to give off the impression that Ari "made the deck good." We'll aware that it took down the euro GP this year, before Ari's win. I just wanted to reference the result of a recent high profile event that is still fresh in everyone's mind.
Going to DC? Not 100% sure how all the other popular decks in the metagame play out? This one's for you! I pretty much go through some of the more popular archetypes and explain how to identify them as early as turn one (knowing what you're up against is a HUGE part of the battle), how they plan to kill you, and what you need to play around/be mindful of.
Here's the full report:
http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2013/11/hope-eternal-legacy-championships-14th/
And here's the list:
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Creatures
3 Vendilion Clique
1 Venser, Shaper Savant
Spells
4 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Counterbalance
1 Rest in Peace
4 Brainstorm
1 Counterspell
1 Flusterstorm
3 Force of Will
1 Misdirection
2 Spell Pierce
3 Swords to Plowshares
1 Unexpectedly Absent
2 Entreat the Angels
1 Supreme Verdict
3 Terminus
2 Arid Mesa
4 Flooded Strand
4 Island
2 Karakas
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Mystic Gate
1 Polluted Delta
2 Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
2 Tundra
2 Volcanic Island
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Entreat the Angels
1 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Will
1 Humility
1 Misdirection
1 Pithing Needle
2 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
1 Rest in Peace
1 Terminus
1 Unexpectedly Absent
1 Venser, Shaper Savant
1 Wear
I think if I want to continue playing Unexpectedly Absent, I need to play another Gate.
http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2013/11/hope-eternal-legacy-championships-14th/
Goblins usually plays it, especially if they're running Thalia. It's too important that they resolve some of their cards are too important to resolve, like Matron and Ringleader. Elves typically doesn't play it for the following reasons:
-They don't need to resolve specific creatures as badly as Goblins because Glimpse triggers on casting, and most of the cards are cheap, interchangeable parts.
-Their arguably most important creature (symbiote) is not an elf.
-It makes it difficult for them to cast Abrupt Decay and post-board discard spells
-To a lesser extent, forests matter for Quirion Ranger tricks
http://www.hipstersofthecoast.com/2013/10/hope-eternal-road-dc-part-ii-national-metagame-analysis/
It's very hard to draw meaningful conclusions on what you're likely to see in the first rounds or what you're likely to see in the x-3 bracket, as the only readily available data we have are top 16s. Because of the diversity of the format, you're very much at the mercy of pairings variance until you're a few rounds in (with a good record). The best advice I can give you for reducing pairings variance is this: you have three weeks until DC, so go win a GPT. Two byes will go a long way towards bringing your expected third round field closer to these results.