MTG Salvation

Quote from Life1ess »

Am I alone in my concern that the 2016 commander decks are going to be a raging dumpster fire? The last few sets of decks have been easily playable and even somewhat competitive right out of the box. I can't imagine a budget 4 color manabase that isn't slow as dirt and inconsistent.

I'm sure there will be some exciting new cards but I'm not convinced the decks will work.

I'm sure they will be playable agains each other. They are going to have plenty of CITP lands, which will make for games with more turns, but they will also have plenty of mana rocks that tap for colored mana, even if they might have only a few uses.

Quote from ISBPathfinder »

I appologize if this is just kind of a pointless brag post (this is offtopic). For anyone who plays d&d 5th edition I found a really cool build I was playing last night. The party was lvl 13 and would lvl sometime last night. I ended up rolling a new character as I had been a bard / pally / cleric before and I was fairly good at healing with that build but it did nothing else. Instead last night I rolled up a Druid 12 (shapeshifter) Cleric 1 (life) last night and had some fun.

In the current campaign we are in we are generally fighting several rather difficult fights usually something like 3 hard fights + one encounter based event per day and we lvl at the end of it. We are progressing through the 9 layers of hell on a mission and each layer must be done in one day and we lvl at the end. We ended up getting to the end of the layer we had been in as we were close to the end of it when we picked up for the night. I then converted all of my spell slots into goodberries and ended up with something like 140 goodberries ranging from 4-10 health recovering each because of my life domain pickup.

In the next layer I use shapeshifting to tank and spank the first two fights more or less. I then fly around (am an avian race) for the third fight firing call lightning repeatedly on multi stacked units. I end up giving almost full rest recovers to a party of 7 3 times in a case where we had people close to or actually dropping in each fight.

TLDR: I had some fun min maxing a few things in D&D. Druids are kind of gross.

My last character was a dwarven monk named Tupalo Black who was loosely min maxed for mobility and agility, with wisdom secondary. With no armor his AC was pretty great, but that hardly ever mattered because he almost never ended his turn anywhere near the baddies, even if they weren't stunned or prone. I started as with an elemental build, but since it our first real game in 5th we allowed each other to alter our characters as much as we wanted after the first session or two, and the more traditional monk was just so much better. We started at lvl 9 (Rise of Tiamat) and we were allowed to pick a magic item so I devised these magic ribbons that were worn like a fighter's hand wraps and allowed me to do additional cold damage dice (so they doubled on crit) like 3 times per long rest. My turn was often something like- move into melee, hit one enemy twice, move to another hit them twice or once stunning them, then moving well out of melee if I couldn't take advantage of their condition on my next turn. None of the attacks were devastating, but since I was rolling 2-4 times more hit rolls than the other players per turn I had way more chances for crits. I got him to lvl 11 before I took over GM duties, and by then he had a slow fall ability and could run up walls. Even AOE dragon breath wasn't too bad because the Monk automatically takes half from that and can save for half again. Many times our mage was planning a fireball and at first he was worried about catching me in the blast, but the damage was almost never all that scary so I just told him to cast to his heart's content. He took heavy damage a couple of times, but had the mobility to get out of the way right after.

I love 5th. I am never a min maxer but sort of did with Tupalo. It was really fun. My step-brother (who I have been playing D&D with for more than 30 years) moved to Boston a few months ago and the group has sort of fallen apart since then.

Quote from Dio »

Try Facebook selling groups, but make sure you that you're selling below TCG Low and eBay BIN.

Thanks. I went TCG and sold 1 Engineered Explosives, 4 Verdant Catacombs and a LotV pretty quickly even though I had no sales yet. They went for a couple dollars below TCG market price. The fees are steeper than I'd like, but I am still getting over TCG low in cash in the end.

It was easier than I thought. Just got another sale for Arid Mesa.

Quote from weezie13 »

Any thoughts of if any vehicles or Kaladesh cards will make a splash in modern? Any of the Gearhulks or something like Smuggler's Copter? They're already spiked but wondering if they have staying power.... any opinions are appreciated!

I think you are going to find that it is going to be much easier to get a good price on new Rare cards that find a place in modern. The wholesale box price has a lot of power over the resale market of a set while it is in print, which means that the resale value of the cards in that set, added together, will never be a lot more than that price (not sure what the margin of error is). Thus when there are cards that are quite expensive and harder to get the lower rarity cards have to go down. Mythics and increased print runs have a done a lot to drive down rare prices for this reason and the neo-expiditions will have an additional impact.

I bring that up in response to your question because I think that if you are buying to play and don't have a time pressure on when you need cards then it is almost always going to be wait and know what will be played in Modern than to try and predict playable rares in the long run. You can save some money that way, but for my money it is not worth the added cost of the duds you will get when you and the community are wrong.

Obviously everything I am saying about Rares is true for lower rarites as well.

I need to get a hold of some cash so I am ready to do what I have told others not to do- sell some high value Modern staples. I just don't play much right now and have not played anything other than casually in several months. I am wondering about the best way to do this as a person who has little to no history as a seller on both Ebay and TCG. I want to get much better than buy list, so that means I need to sell them directly. I have an ebay account, though it has been several years since I sold anything and don't have that many sales to begin with. Frankly I have been a little leery of using them due to fear of a charge back. I have never used TCG to sell cards, so there is no history to give potential buyers confidence that I am trustworthy and selling genuine product. To make things more complicated mine are authentic (I pulled all of them from sealed product), but these are all cards that I have seen in counterfeit lots (LotV, Verdant Catacombs, and Arid Mesa). I will probably end up getting well below TCG market price for them due to my lack of history, but as long as I get well above buy list I am fine with it.

So, anyone got some words of guidance?

EDIT: I gotta add EE to my sell pile now.

Quote from Equinox2793 »

I'm buying into Naya Nahiri Breach as we speak. Just bought a playset of promo for around 30.

I've said it before, but that has got to be one of the only foil promo cards I prefer to the original. It just looks so solid, and the foiling makes it pop. I was surprised they were so cheap when u got mine.

Quote from ed06288 »

I think you guys are overestimating counterfeits in general

I actually think you are correct right now. I have yet to touch a counterfeit that I couldn't pick out with 100% accuracy, and I have seen a couple waves of them. The thing is they are popping up a bit more frequently, and that moves a certain kind of player to start blaming WotC for that happening.

Quote from Lakanna »

And when prices come back down to a certain level, counterfeiting becomes less profitable, even unprofitable, and it stops. until the pressure builds up again.

Sorry, I hadn't finished my point. Got tired of typing on my phone and moved to laptop.

Reprints are a relief valve, but they still have to make sure demand exceeds supply, so that valve has to have conservative limits. I think people fail to see how much that their desire and aspiration for that next thing that is out of their reach makes them more interested in that thing- even if they feel frustrated and resentful that they are doing it. WotC can't just open the hose and expect long term viability of the system, it depends on a certain amount of pressure for that to happen. Reprints to the extent that it would make counterfeiting unprofitable would ultimately damage the game in the long run. You and I both feel that a relief valve put in place by WotC is a good way to combat this, where we disagree is how much flow it should allow. You say you want a relief valve put in place by WotC as a good way to combat this, and I don't disagree, but what you seem to be proposing is substantially increasing the size of the outflow pipe, which can't be undone and (IMO) will harm the game in the long run.

Counterfeiters, on the other hand, just want to punch as big and as low of a hole as they can to get what they want, long term viability be damned.

Meeting demand is a terrible way to manage a wildly successful game that has, to one extent or another, succeeded based on it's collectibility. You always want demand to exceed availability because humans are driven by aspiration whether we know it or not. It is a pressurized water tank, in a way. The supply is the pressure in the tank that allows for the water to reach the demand for that water down the pipeline.

Now, things can be taken too far for sure, and I think that some of you folks feel that the pressure has gotten to dangerous levels such that the game is at risk for a catastrophic failure. Or perhaps pressure has gotten so great that the flow of water where you are is so great that you can't dip your cup in to get a drink I can't say you're wrong because every consumer decides that for themselves. Those of you, however, who see counterfeiting as an inevitable relief valve that keeps the pressure within acceptable limits you are wrong. Counterfeiting is a leak, not a relief valve, and a leak leads to catastrophic failure just as much as over pressure does.

A relief valve regulates pressure and will stop when pressure comes back down to acceptable levels, because if that pressure gets too low then the water won't make down the line. That is what WotC tries to do with things like Masters sets (whether you think they do it well is another thing)- those are relief valves. Counterfeiters, on the other hand, are a leak because they don't give a flying **** how low the pressure gets or how much damage is done to the tank- there are always more tanks (or other products) to punch holes in when one fails.

Those that buy counterfeits are folks who get their water from the leak and are thus tacitly allowing the inevitable damage that the leak will cause to the whole system, because you just want to get yours. Those that stand by with their arms crossed watching the leak, and the people getting water from it, and not caring if it gets exploited, are blaming WotC for letting pressure get to high in the first place. Both those groups might justify it by calling the leak a relief valve because once the water line gets lower than the leak as effectively a relief valve because the leak will stop and the water level gets to what those people see as an acceptable level. What they are both ignoring is that it was not a leak that happened due to over pressure and failure of the tank, the counterfeiters just punched a hole in the tank at a point when the pressure was already high. That made it easier to do and allowed for more flow through the leak, but it was still outside damage that caused it, not internal failure. What they are also missing is that as the counterfeits get better and better that leak is getting bigger and lower in the tank until it is so close to the bottom that the tank just can't maintain any flow and so big that it is impractical to repair.

I could take the metaphor further, but I think I have tortured it enough.

Quote from Kedvesem »

But it is a moral question. Is counterfeiting morally wrong?

Yes.

Anything else is beside the point.

Thank you. I just couldn't be bothered arguing the same point over and over. I really need to unsubscribe to this nonsense.

Though I did compose a very nice response in my head yesterday that involved liberal use of the word "falderal", but then decided to tickle my son instead of typing it.

Quote from Lakanna »

Edited in: I notice that you don't actually try to refute that it's true...

Why would I refute the fact that WotC have created a collectible card game? Of course prices for cards would go down if they were printed them eternally. That does not mean that WotC caused counterfeiting, greed by people who don't give a ***** about the creative works of othe people did.

The U.S. treasury prints money and we agree on it's value, but they (or we) have done nothing wrong that justifies counterfeiting that currency. Yes, if the dollar had less value it would not be counterfeited as much, but printing more is not the right answer, nor is it right for the consumer to tacitly engage in counterfeiting by way apathy.

There are only two parties that are the problem here, the counterfeiters and the people that knowingly buy and distribute counterfeit cards. Everything else- all this finger pointing at WotC and how they manage the game is just a smokescreen to hide the fact that such acts are wrong.

But, whatever. Thieves are always going to try and justify why they do it and make themselves to be some kind of anti-hero. It's bull*****, but I guess they have to do something to allow themselves to loom in the mirror, right.

Quote from Lakanna »

The counterfeiting issue is a direct result of WotC trying to limit supply, either with no reprints, or reprints insufficient to meet demand.

Oh, this old chestnut. Yea, just like it is my my fault for having nice things if someone breaks in and steals them. 🙄

Quote from JTMTG »

I post this in Modern prices becasue my collection is 95% Modern based.

So I got my first real job recently Ive finished up Uni and Ive found I really don't have time or the interest to play MTGO anymore.
I have something like 1.3k USD worth of cards and im debating on cashing out or just leaving it all there for when I may want to play again.
I know I will play MTG again but these days its more likely to be IRL commander with friends for the social aspect.

I doubt I will play much this year or the next and about the only thing I can see that might bring me back in is MM2017 if it exists.

I don't "need" the money now but money is money I guess the question is are my MTGO cards going to appreciate more then whatever I use the money to buy. If I where to play sooner then I expected I should be in a position to just drop 1k on the game. So it might be demoralizing to learn that snapcaster and co have doubled but it wont be the end of the world.

Thoughts?

I sold my MTGO collection that I'd had since Champions of Kamigawa in April of last year. I'd had plenty of periods where in I just stopped playing online for whatever reason, once for a couple of years, but after Modern started I gave it more attention. I was looking for deals on cards that would allow me to play archetypes that I could not yet play in meatspace, and even though I was not super aggressive with buying/selling/trading I'd amassed a decent collection, though I had no idea what the price a dealer might give me for the cards. The thing that really made me leave is that I didn't have the time to devote to playing competitive Modern (leagues had not come back yet), and even when I did it was never much of a draw for me. I play tested decks I had in meatspace a fair bit, but even then it felt like something I felt I should do rather than something I wanted to do. I didn't mind the interface as much as other folks, though my laptop is pretty old and the memory leaks were crippling at times. It was more the realization that without the social aspect the game was not as much of a draw. It felt like homework that I was doing so that I could go out to the shop, have fun playing Modern, and not get crushed entirely.

Though, if I'm honest, the thing that really really got me to sell it was the quote I got. I had been thinking about it so I got a quote from MTGO Traders just to see what it would be, and I was stunned. I thought it would be like maybe $600, and I wasn't sure if that was enough for me to not just come back to it like I had so many times, but (and I can't believe I forgot how much the quote was for) it was something like $3200. I read that email like 10 times thinking I'd read it wrong, and even printed it out because I knew my wife would never believe me. That was enough for me to sell out of an online game, that I played only sparingly, in a hot minute. I took something like $500 in trade credit from their brick and mortar paper card affiliate, but the rest was cash money that I was thrilled to put into family savings (I gave myself a few hundred $ to play with).

Here is what I'd say to you: I don't think that your collection, on the whole, is going to get devalued if you leave it. If you really don't need the money and you think you might spend it anyway if you sold your collection, then there is really no good reason to liquidate it. That is if you are confidant that you won't want to play much MTGO some time in the future. You can wait to decide that, too. If you have things like Fetches, Shocks, Snapcaster, Hierarch, and Confidant - cards that will be mainstays of the format and are not likely to get significantly cheaper, then your overall $ value is not going to be going down. If you think you might want to play again next summer then I would just mothball it and decide later.

Quote from prismatic elf »

Mishra's Bauble spike is more likely based from recent results than buy out.

Agreed.

One of the things about Bauble is that this is the second time it has spiked, and that means it is easier to spike higher and the price won't go back down as quickly. The reason for this is the first time it spikes all the players that pay attention see the price and go into their collection, dig out the copies they forgot about, and sell them. When the second spike comes around there are now a lot fewer copies in collections, because individuals sold them to dealers last spike, and it is these individual sales that keep spikes from being long lasting. Every spike after that means fewer and fewer copies not in the hands of dealers (or folks like me who maintain a collection), which means less competition, which means higher prices over all.

Quote from Equinox2793 »

There is no universe in which Tamiyo stays at $30 dollars. No planeswalker (besides jace and Nahiri) is above $20 dollars. She is a 3 color planeswalker that needs to be in decks with lots of creatures. She will be $15ish or lower imho.

When I posted that the price I was seeing was about $21 where I was looking. I don't see her being more than $9 on either side of that price so if I am only buying 2 right now that is an acceptable risk. If she goes way down I will have lost a bit, but I also won't want more than two for brewing and EDH. If she hangs out at 30+ for some reason then she will probably hit my hard limit of what I will spend on a card, so I won't buy them anyway.