If that argument was true we would never see anything but control decks in top 8s because "they can counter everything and protect their threats!". Control decks do not always have the counter contrary to what you seem to think.
You're also blatantly ignoring that OTHER decks play counters too. If in the mirror they Surgical Extraction your Skeleton (one of the few occasions I can see SE actually being a reasonable sideboard card against UB control....) and they have counter backup you're going to need multiple counters to do anything about it (and even that may not be enough if they have multiple counters and equal mana to you). Then you've lost a third of your win-cons leaving you only Snappy and Nexus vs their deck with 3-4 diverse win-cons that can't be so easily hated out.
If they play a turn 1 Nihil Spellbomb how do you counter that? You could play Mental Misstep but that's otherwise extremely narrow vs control. You can play around it to an extent by not playing out a ton of Skeletons or putting them in your grave, but then you give the opponent more time to assemble their own win-con while putting on little pressure of your own.
Saying they'll counter anything that stops their win-con is extremely naive as you're always assuming the best case scenario. I don't know about you but I do not build a deck based around the best case scenario coming true. Some decks have too great of a threat density for you to always have the counter.
The SCG buyers were openly groaning about the fact that they were buying Lily at $40 in Nashville. Every person in Nashville who wasn't planning to run Solar Flare in the next few weeks was unloading them. They obviously knew that buy price is above even what the retail will be in a month. They ran a good risk of taking a bath on all those Lily's unless they managed to sell off their whole stock this week to people building for States -- the storefront shows out of stock at $60, so if that represents their entire stock then maybe they dodged the bullet. But it was a gutsy move to buy at $40, so if it really paid off for them then that's smart business.
As for the "conspiracy theory", I think as others pointed out, Solar Flare is the type of deck that the high-profile SCG circuit grinders like to play, so it was naturally quite visible. Control players seem willing to shell out anything necessary to avoid playing anything else, so they latched on to the one control deck that placed.
I doubt that the premier control deck of the next few months is going to be some durdling cutesy reanimator deck that was only conceived and built because people remembered playing it years ago. Without the byes they had at SCG opens in the caw-blade era, they don't get to skip past the monored matches and enjoy hours of control mirrors anymore, so any control deck that ultimately prevails on that circuit will have a better aggro matchup. If that original Solar Flare hadn't existed, those folks would probably just be playing UB or UW control and have never thought to add Unburial Rites anyhow.
Just back from my States after getting 3rd.
Lost to a RUG list and mirror.
Venser, I have to say, won me a nice few games.
So underrated.
This deck is tier 1 in my mind, just has to be the right build.
Venser rules the mirror and against other grindy control decks.
Oh BTW another thing about Wolf Run.
You want to have 2 Phantasmal Images.
Early, you can copy their emmisary to stop pressure/stay up on mana with them. Later, you copy a prime time and fetch up your ghost quarters.
I've thought about spellskite but the problem is that it takes up the TR slot, and I don't think it's better than TR in the aggro MU's. And wolfrun typically has 4 Beast within 1-2 Slimes and 4 Green Sun's Zenith so Spellskite isn't going to be around when it matters if they know how to play the deck. I'm also not a huge fan of Ghost Quarter, but since I'm running Sun Titan I figured I could live with having it as my 27th land.
I play 3 TR Main and 1 in the board so my board has some space.
And yes they do have all of that stuff but you also have answers for those things as well and better ways to draw cards. I'm not saying the mu is in your favor but it is winnable. If you want to keep playing the deck in a world filled with wolfrun you're going to need some dedicated sideboard slots.
I think some of the things that need to be discussed are:
1. Lilianna: I think she is awesome, but she is terrible against aggro, mediocre against the mirror, and I'm not sure how she is against Wolf-Run ramp. I don't think right now is a good time for her. What are the other consensus's.
2. Wolf-Run ramp: This deck is pretty much the new valakut but might be worse because it is a mono green deck that gets to run forests (instead of mountains) so it is much more consistent. What do we need to beat this deck? Counters are a must, I'm thinking 8 total in the 75. For those of you that think you can beat this deck with tapout you are probably insane or haven't tested against it. New valakut can still kill as early as turn 6 and has the same inevitability as old valakut did.
3. Monored: Doesn't seem like a great MU. Koth is probably more of a beating than hero because of the ultimate. We can potentially have removal for the mountains though. Chandra's phoenix can be a pain if we can't exile it. Brimstone volley is nuts.
Conclusion/Ideas/Decklist
I think these are the top 3 decks right now (followed by Steel and Pod but I haven't tested those MU's enough to comment). Snapmage probably needs to become a 3 of to increase the versatility of our removal and counters against Wolfrun and mono red.
I'm going to be testing Curse of Death's Hold since it totally shuts down inkmoth, is helpful against aggro (to an extent), and turns dismember into removal against the mirror (and titans). So it's valid in the three main MU's as I see them.
I'll post my Current decklist and some thoughts on my sideboard. I don't care about critique (but if anyone wants to I'm always welcome to criticism) as I don't need anyone to validate my choices.
I have a 2/2 Dissipate/Flashfreeze split because I want 4 more counters against Wolfrun but I also want 2 more against the mirror. Although, I really wish we had spell pierce or something similar. Hopefully we get a good 1 mana counter in the next set.
The 2 Virulent Wound are for additional removal against Inkmoth and aggro decks. Originally I had dead weight but inkmoth is a pain. It can also kill Stormkirk noble on the draw.
2 Surgical Extraction for the mirror mostly. Potentially against monored also to get rid of phoenixs or brimstone. Purify the grave might be better because of the flashback, but snapcaster helps to even it up.
The Revoke Existence are for Steel and Pod. Divine offering might be better, but sometimes hitting just the tempered steel is enough to win the game.
Have you tried spellskite (in the board) as a way to stop the wolf run land? It's also good against mono red and good against random decks such as tezzeret.
It comes back from sun titan. Also an extra ghost quarter in the board.
So is it a consensus that SoM lands are bad? It seems that way.
BTW Last night in a mirror match I won with him at 112 and me at 16. Main Deck Jaces are nice. Also venser out of board is legit tech.
As far as surgical extraction versus spellbomb, they both have their ups and downs.
When you have Sun Titan + Image, spell bomb allows you to draw 2 cards every time you attack.
I don't think i'd run spellbomb if I wasn't running Jace though.
Also
Liliana
I'm down to 2, I'm thinking of cutting them both and maybe playing a grave titan and a main deck surgical extraction.
7 Drop
I ran 1 Elesh Norn last night MD, it was my first time playing a 7 drop in the main. I liked it but I think I want to play a different seven drop, I already have sweepers in the main and enough removal. I was thinking Sheoldred, or is Rune Scarred Demon actually nuts? He seems pretty awesome when he gets unburial rites'd multiple times.
Spellskite
I noticed some people hating on the guy. He's in my board because of Wolf Run (redirects lands, redirects beast within) and also Mono Red.
Every now and again when I test Solar Flare on Cockatrice, I'll get a really nuts hand against aggro, and go all the way. The other 95% of the time, I just sort of gently weep in the corner.
ehhhh, This deck does not have a hard time against aggro. The game 1 against mono red isn't optimal, but it is winnable.
Birds are really bad to topdeck late game so I don't want to run Lotus Cobra AND Birds of Paradise..I chose the one that gets really explosive.
Turn 3 Garruk
Turn 4 Sun Titan, recurring a fetch with a cobra out, playing sword.
Draw 6 off garruk ETC ETC
It gets crazy.
The most insane nut-draw you can get is
Turn 1 preordain
Turn 2 hawks, discarding a phantasmal image
Turn 3 Cobra, fetch, play sword
Turn 4 sun titan, get image copy titan, get fetch, equip sword to your turn 2 hawk, swing, untap play a garruk?
The normal plays still allow you to get a sword active really quick, or just always have counter mana up while applying pressure
Phantasmal Titan can out draw, and can use Hawks just as well as Caw. My list has a very good matchup against Caw. It just requires stalling them long enough to get online. Not very hard with 4 DoJ and 4 O-rings pre-board. Post board it's TR just the same as Caw.
Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of U/W aggro. I just think it's not viable for very long while the Meta adapts to it. It's still a relatively new deck, and a lot people haven't ran into it yet.
That deck seems like it has an awful rdw match up game 1.
Surgical Extraction your Skeleton
In response return it to battlefield?
....
How do you stop turn 1 spellbomb?
Tap my spellbomb exiling your GY
in response return skeletons to battlefield?
They got out quick pressure which is something that solar flare usually doesn't do.
He was running 0 Lilianas and basically replaced timely reinforcements with splicers.
I think I might play something like
3 Splicer
2 Snap Cast
1 Rune Scarred
1 Grave Titan
2 Phant Image
2 Sun Titan
Especially when you have multiple Sun Titans.
Swing with Titan Image Image
Trigger 1, Bomb Tap 1 Draw a Card, Recur Bomb
Trigger 2, Bomb Tap 1 Draw a Card, Recur Bomb
Trigger 3, Bomb Tap 1 Draw a Card, Recur Bomb
Seems good.
Have you even played the deck? It's Tier 1.
Though, Liliana might not belong in it.
Venser rules the mirror and against other grindy control decks.
Oh BTW another thing about Wolf Run.
You want to have 2 Phantasmal Images.
Early, you can copy their emmisary to stop pressure/stay up on mana with them. Later, you copy a prime time and fetch up your ghost quarters.
I play 3 TR Main and 1 in the board so my board has some space.
And yes they do have all of that stuff but you also have answers for those things as well and better ways to draw cards. I'm not saying the mu is in your favor but it is winnable. If you want to keep playing the deck in a world filled with wolfrun you're going to need some dedicated sideboard slots.
Have you tried spellskite (in the board) as a way to stop the wolf run land? It's also good against mono red and good against random decks such as tezzeret.
It comes back from sun titan. Also an extra ghost quarter in the board.
BTW Last night in a mirror match I won with him at 112 and me at 16. Main Deck Jaces are nice. Also venser out of board is legit tech.
As far as surgical extraction versus spellbomb, they both have their ups and downs.
When you have Sun Titan + Image, spell bomb allows you to draw 2 cards every time you attack.
I don't think i'd run spellbomb if I wasn't running Jace though.
Also
Liliana
I'm down to 2, I'm thinking of cutting them both and maybe playing a grave titan and a main deck surgical extraction.
7 Drop
I ran 1 Elesh Norn last night MD, it was my first time playing a 7 drop in the main. I liked it but I think I want to play a different seven drop, I already have sweepers in the main and enough removal. I was thinking Sheoldred, or is Rune Scarred Demon actually nuts? He seems pretty awesome when he gets unburial rites'd multiple times.
Spellskite
I noticed some people hating on the guy. He's in my board because of Wolf Run (redirects lands, redirects beast within) and also Mono Red.
ehhhh, This deck does not have a hard time against aggro. The game 1 against mono red isn't optimal, but it is winnable.
I'm running 2 DoJ, 3 Timely, 3 doomblade, 3 o-ring, MD.
Seems okay against aggro to me.
4 Lotus Cobra
4 Hawks
3 Sun Titan
2 Phantasmal Image
2 Dismember
1 Beast Within
3 Manaleak
2 Spell Pierce
1 Ponder
2 Day of Judgement
2 Sword of Feast of Famine
2 New Garruks
Birds are really bad to topdeck late game so I don't want to run Lotus Cobra AND Birds of Paradise..I chose the one that gets really explosive.
Turn 3 Garruk
Turn 4 Sun Titan, recurring a fetch with a cobra out, playing sword.
Draw 6 off garruk ETC ETC
It gets crazy.
The most insane nut-draw you can get is
Turn 1 preordain
Turn 2 hawks, discarding a phantasmal image
Turn 3 Cobra, fetch, play sword
Turn 4 sun titan, get image copy titan, get fetch, equip sword to your turn 2 hawk, swing, untap play a garruk?
The normal plays still allow you to get a sword active really quick, or just always have counter mana up while applying pressure
Please use deck tags.
except for when you're playing against caw blade
which is a lot if you intend on using the deck for anything above an FNM.
That deck seems like it has an awful rdw match up game 1.
4 Hawks
2 emeria
2 sphinx
or, what I run
4 hawk
2 emeria
1 sun titan
1 sphinx
Emeria might not put as much fast pressure as HoBH..but at least if she gets dismembered you still have a 1/1 left instead of nothing.
I'm currently at 1, I might cut him to run a Forsee or maybe just go up to 27 land.