Well, the general attitude seems that, with Miracles gone, duals will be player in a higher % of the meta. I haven't seen a lot of Goyf resurgence just yet given the past couple days of MTGO 5-0s, but perhaps not the BEST indicator. However, it was a lot of Storm, Elves and Delver, so mayyybe 1-2 Maindeck Path to Exile is needed? Perhaps Sunlance is good again, considering it hits Leo?
It remains to be seen how good Elves will be, but I'd bank on its success, personally. At the same time, it's "what cards are good against Elves than can be maindecked?" Big Thalia comes to mind, perhaps Aven Mindcensor. I wouldn't try Containment Priest maindeck, BUT if Storm also becomes a Deck To Beat, then a single Ethersworn that can be tutored with Recruiter is pretty good. However, between THC/Mindcensor/Canonist, THC shuts off more of their deck through a different means of taxing, whereas Mindcensor only goes after Natty O and GSZenith, and Canonist only goes after Glimpse, or even just a straight dump of their hand to get ahead on board.
Black splash still looks good as a result. I've felt Pontiff is good enough to maindeck for almost a year, and have done it myself to the tune of a few SoCal Top 8s. It *still* may not be enough for Elves though....
I just find it odd that on the one hand, you present cogent arguments in favor of THC. On the other hand, much of the D&T playerbase has decided strongly against running THC. With respect to the arguments in favor of THC, I have to wonder if there are even better arguments against her inclusion. Or perhaps THC works much better only in certain builds such as your small black splash?
Sure, that's always possible. I run Orzhov Pontiff, therefore, I rely less on just Council's Judgment for TNN, and since I honestly still like him maindeck, that's where I therefore also choose SoLaS currently for my maindeck sword. Having only a Cj to fill in gaps, it also allows me to go my true preferred route to beat the mirror, the 2x Disenchant. Doesn't matter if your opponent gets equipment to the board first if you just destroy it when he goes to equip. The 1 less mana and instant speed are real. Disenchant is pretty much ol' reliable, still the original and probably the best in the absence of a Tutor board for Seal of Cleansing in a heavy OmniTell meta.
That said, I don't know if it necessarily applies to THC. I'd likely still play the card in a mono-white shell. In fact, such a build wouldn't have a Pontiff, so an extra spot makes it all the more likely THC would be included. Until something gets printed that's clearly better than THC AND Avenger, I choose THC for now. Call it wrong or call it just a different direction to the same end, I'm definitely satisfied with her performance, and end up with satisfactory tournament results as such with her, so I see no reason to change course just because it's not "stock" anymore.
Re. THC conversation.
While I think it is still a great effect, I don't know that what our deck really needed a stronger taxing plan. Going back pre-THC, OG Thalia, Wasteland and Port + various other tricks kind of had that covered.
This is kind of exactly it. We don't always "have it covered" because this deck has no topdeck filtering. You never know what you're going to get, and to that end where getting a TGT in play in less than half our games on curve, I like perhaps a bit of redundancy with the "Taxes" part.
I don't like pure beaters in this deck, never have. They are sometimes a necessity, but Recruiter sort of lowers the need for high numbers of them. Why are pure beaters "bad"? Well, you end up playing a card that is vanilla as all hell against most all combo matches, and combo is even a bit higher % of the meta share than it was some 6 months ago or so. I remember when it had gone under 20% total, but now with Sneak/Omni/Show and Reanimator both doing well, combo is at 28% in live tournaments as of this writing. If you count MTGO results, the last two weeks for all Legacy results put it at 26%. I tend to favor the live-only results, however, being that certain card prices on MTGO skew the natural % of meta each deck really is.
Point is, if it can be helped, I'd rather not run excess of cards that are laughable against at least a quarter of decks. THC is a beater, but she has decent game against most combo if you make it that far. Should you not even live to turn 3, all your extra Crusaders and Avengers are still worthless. At least with THC, you have a shot at doing something against almost all of the meta, not just fair decks where the correct removal resilience lines up (e.g., you draw Mirran against BUG and not Grixis Delver, or you land Avenger against a Punishing Fire deck as opposed to a Fatal Push deck or the like).
Interesting food for thought. A few notes/questions:
I thought Sneak Attack's answer to THC was to sneak the Emrakul in at D&T's end of turn, then untap and swing.
Yes this is true, I guess it's not a hard out. It does make them do that play, which is at least a plus. You have an extra turn every time, perhaps meaningful, perhaps not.
Your points on the value of THC are solid in a vacuum, but do you not miss Avenger's ability to fly over Goyfs, Zombie Fish, and Nemeses? You can try to force a race that you'll win instead of creating a stand-off. While THC is great against Elves, having an active Jitte against them is gold, and THC still gets stonewalled by bounce tricks (whereas Avenger doesn't).
If you're asking do I specifically miss those things out of Avenger, sure maybe once in a while. Not enough to lose games though. It's a different path to victory, but whereas Avenger is just a very good shot at 3 a turn with decent defense, you get a tax with Thalia and First Strike. But the other thing to point out here is that we're not just comparing THC to Avenger, as I am using her in the slots I would consider possible Mirran Crusaders as well. So yea, to the point that either of those beaters would connect with equipment easier with an opposing Wirewood Symbiote in play, sure. This is just a specific scenario, however, involving the presence of 3 specific cards to really get an advantage on THC, who provides a huge boost just by herself. Also to note, in either scenario with Wirewood in play, drawing a Mom also renders the point moot, for the flip side of the coin, because you can then just push through with pro-green. However, I don't go to that point first because it involves another card, same as when Mirran or Avenger might get a leg up for combat scenarios.
The larger point on if I was presenting her pros in a vacuum: that's kind of hard to define or quantify. The scenario you listed for Avenger being able to push through damage against that deck because of her flying ability is exactly an advantage she has in a vacuum, as it's one scenario. When you consider every one of the scenarios put together where it matters when an Elf or 90% of their lands come into play tapped or not, I think now we are indeed outside of that type of thinking. I hope this is how I was illustrating her pluses, but if it wasn't clear enough before, maybe this lends some clarity. I just consider the overall multitude of play scenarios, both involving synergy with your opponents and your own cards, and find I like the overall package of Thalis 2 better than Avenger. Both Crusader and Wisp can be gotten with Recruiter, so finding evasion is not a common problem.
In the overall, you have Recruiter to thank for points in THC's favor, since DnT's specifically needed niche cards can just be tutored, and again, like has been mentioned by many here as an annoyance against Avenger's favor, is the fact that you have to blind draw her, which means you either beef up on the card with 3 copies to make her a common enough occurrence, or just having the miser's copy like I see a few people doing these days is - really - just adding flavor to the deck, seasoning. You are not depending on Avenger in a non-Brainstorm deck until you run 3. Just at that, Avenger has to be considered less likely to even see play than any other creature in the deck, for all the combined scenarios when you land a Recruiter. There's always an instance where you will fetch even the not oft-fetched creatures, like a Mom, Revoker, or even a THC.
Similarly, if BUG is on the rise, would a non-decayable Crusader be a stronger option?
Crusader is absolutely a great card, and everyone should run at least one right now. I don't personally put so much stock in needing to naturally draw the guy. Recruiter pads Crusader to a virtual 3-of with almost no effort. Continuing to make sure we're not just discussing 'in a vacuum' too, there will be in-game situations where Karakas will actually provide protection against all removal, but again, I'm not counting on that, just acknowledging that it will come up and matter sometimes. Ditto any time where to even cast that Decay on anything of yours, your opponent needs one more color, and he is forced to play a nonbasic land into THC, and then can't even cast Decay for a turn or 2 anyway. Just a larger point about synergy that I've preferred cards other than Avenger for some time.
Only when the preferred position for Vial is @2, like with Wg Teeg/Pridemage Taxes, or Wb Dark (Confidant) n' Taxes, was I more pumped about Avenger in general. While we use CMC3 guys like Recruiter, Prelate, Crusader, and of course, Holy Wisp anyways, I most often defer to additional 3-drops over Avengers, the faux-2-drop. It's just cake that THC is also very easy to cast, like Recruiter. Easier to cast and equal or quicker to the board than Avenger in general.
THC has been nothing but great and I haven't dropped her from any build since she was released. I don't think there's really much merit to the "she is outclassed in post-whatever". Perhaps people are expecting too much of the card, or like above, expect to utilize it every match, or even every game. That is not what Thalia 2 is about.
I reason she is a 2-of card that stays a 2-of in normal "fair" matches when you are on the play (and the odd combo like Elves and Sneak/Show), and she is cut or reduced to 1 when on the draw - when not in a match where her ability extends its value well into the late game, such as against Eldrazi.
But say the "problem" with THC is her being late to the party at all. Thing about this argument is that nothing her ability does isn't somehow mimicked as a similar mechanic from other cards in the deck, which is to say, taxation. We can all agree a Port generally has more impact when the opponent has only two lands as opposed to six. Doesn't mean Port is a bad rip late in the game, as I'd similarly say of Thalia 2 as a 3/2 First-Striker. The whole reason stuff like Judge's Familiar gets weeded out over time is because when you're in the thick of it mid-to-late game, a vanilla 1/1 Flyer doesn't pack a lot of punch. THC's body I'd not say the same, and in fact she is one of the better aggressive choices we have in general.
Miracles - THC is probably the best beater in the deck ahead of her older sister simply because of Karakas-protection. Enables Vial @3 to be the optimal setting for this deck as well, whereas Vial @2 (awkward) can be the best setting if you want to ensure TGT is in play.
DnT - Like Thalia 1, I'd incline to siding THC mostly out as well just because of their high count of Karakas, but in a G1 scenario, she is certainly better than TGT.
BUG Cascade - A matchup without Daze represents an optimal time to slam the turn 3 THC. But even beyond that, this is a Tarmogoyf matchup, which means blocking. If you can pair her up with her sister, you can make a pretty kickass 5-power-First-Strike wall, which also carries over to being great against Eldrazi, BUG Delver, Jund, and Grixis Delver, to mention a few. However, this is also a matchup where you want to continually squeeze on mana, being that their spells are mostly pretty expensive, compared with say, Delver, where costing more than 2 mana for anything is an abomination. So, just by herself, I see THC pulling plenty of weight in this one, as it comes to lands, an especially things like the BUG player turning the tide because he cascades Strix off a Shardless Agent when just last turn you were going aggro. Well, perhaps that extra one turn of free attacks is just what you needed in the end to win, and this could be a turn 15+ scenario. Anyway, BUG Cascade generally likes to gum up the works, and THC curbs that no matter when she enters.
Grixis Delver - Triumphant here. All their stuff is nonbasic. 3/2 FS here lets you get pretty aggressive.
Sneak Show - A true maindeck out to Sneak Attack beyond Revoker. Also meaning Karakas-savable, and Re-Vial-able after an unpreventable Kozilek's Return, which your Revoker isn't getting out of. Getting beats going against combo is the name of the game as well, and 3 is quite respectable with a game-winning tax.
So those are prob the top 5 decks now, and THC is great or even one of the best cards IMO against 4 of them. This isn't to mention her skills against Elves, still the worst matchup. I'll shore up a "worst" matchup without changing any fundamental aspect of the deck framework any ol' day of the week. Again as well, in the overall and in practice, you just use her in game 1s, then when on the play. Sometimes you have maindeck material this is less relevant than THC anyway, so you side that out and she stays in even on the draw, or she stays in because she's good all the time, like against Eldrazi. It's different for every match, but the general rule I go by is use it like you would Daze or Stifle when on play/draw. That's generally how to get the best value out of her. Being a THC advocate, I'd perhaps write up a more detailed matchup siding guide later.
Haven't played DnT in a while since I'm testing a Landstill deck lately, but went to ol' reliable with a little bit of spice for a 52-man tourney today at the new Spellhold Games in Orange, CA. Made Top-8 split of $100 cash apiece, and I conceded to my Quarterfinals opponent since I had a longer drive back and wasn't playing for anything other than the final ranking, and he was sticking around anyway.
First thing is that increasingly, I'm feeling like SoFaI is only our maindeck sword to have an out past True-Name Nemesis. The top two removal, basically neck-and-neck right now, are Plowshares and Abrupt Decay. This is not to mention that the new Fatal Push is at least 10% of the meta, and probably slowly growing over time. So, going with Medea's idea of Sword of War and Peace - getting the pro-white maindeck - I went one further to add the pro-black route over the pro-red route, being Lightning Bolt is sort of underplayed right now. With SoLaS, you also make your regular Decay-wielding opponents go for the Sword itself instead of your creature, and if you equip to an x/2, SoLaS makes the creature effectively Bolt-proof anyway.
Now, I only felt bold enough to try this because I was already running and out to kill TNN maindeck, in that fetchable singleton Pontiff. Already having an out to TNN freed me from the perceived necessity of having pro-blue. The Lifegain and "return any creature from yard to hand" abilities on SoLaS were overall pretty decent on the day, but it's the pro-color-combo of BW that really makes it enticing.
R1, Shardless BUG - I win the roll and get a turn 3 THC on board, which hamstrings him all game. Go to G2, where he casts a turn 2 Hymn that nets my much-wanted Cavern of Souls. I am stuck on two mana and he starts encroaching, so I just concede for sake of time to go to G3. Here I get my Batteskull Maelstrom Pulsed, but topdeck a Rest in Peace at an opportune time and run over his paltry Goyfs and Squirerite Shamans. 2-1, 1-0.
R2 is UBg Reanimator. It's the guy's first Legacy tournament, so he made a few mistakes that possibly cost him the match, but I drew well enough anyway. Karakas on his G1 Griselbrand with a Mom-protected Wisp, then in G2, we stall out with another Mom-protected Wisp vs. Iona, Shield of Emeria, but after 5 or so turns of "Draw, Go", I find a Karakas, bounce his fatty, and commence beatdown. 2-0, 2-0.
R3, Aggro Loam. This guy plays Loam all the time and he's very good at it. G1 I wrap up quickly being that he is short on lands and I get Batterskull into play pretty much uncontested, then have a Vial>>Wisp for his Marit Lage token. G2 we stall out a bit, but he lands a big Knight of the Reliquary, then a Liliana. I don't have enough to catchup. G3 we go tit-for-tat for a bit, but I cant find a threat, and though I exiled his first Dark Confidant, he finds another, and before long he is discarding Lilianas to Lilianas, so I call it quits a turn or two before the inevitable to have time for a bite to eat. 1-2, 2-1.
R4 is Eldrazi. We slog out a super long game 1 which I won from ultimately baiting an Endbringer ping early before being able to Flicker a Recruiter to fetch up Revoker to shut down Endbringer for my next turn, then swung in on a SoLaS-equippd Wisp to swing the game safely in my favor. Game 2 he almost gets there, but I again muck up the board with Recruiter-chump blockers long enough to get Batterskull and flyers out. I win G2 on Turn 2 of untimed turns. 2-0, 3-1.
R5, Burn. I have a sick clutch play in game one where he Fireblasts my Batterskull-equipped Germ token when I am attacking, and I Vial in Pontiff to make it a 5/5. Second game, I am oddly enough able to do the same thing, though it was probably a done deal when I'd got a Mom-protected T3-Vialed Mystic>>Skull anyway. 2-0, 4-1.
R6 I am in 5th and ID with my opponent who is 6th. We have better breakers than everyone. I stick around until Top 8, and it seems the consensus is for everyone to split the cash prize, so I call it a day.
In the overall, I really dug SoLaS, unconventional choice as it is. As long as I'm still running Pontiff and Bolt is <20% of the metagame, it seems like a fine choice. I don't know if not having a TNN answer in your maindeck precludes SoLaS from being a good choice over SoFaI, but thankfully, it was something I didn't have to wrestle with, being such a Pontiff fan.
It's funny, way back when, Judge's Familiar was spoiled, and Finn and I were all about it on day 1. The deck was still bad against combo (this was a time before even Containment Priest), and anything to buy you that turn one so you could safely land Thalia or Canonist was going to be a boon. AND it evasively handles equipment!
Then it turned out we were largely playing Suntail Hawk, at least a noticeable majority of the time. Not good enough for Legacy. Most importantly though, it's one of those cards that depreciates in value quite fast. I don't remember how long we rooted for it, or who publicly shamed the bird first, but it is indeed a dream deferred.
I am not too pleased with the emergence of Leovold. I tested Reid's list at my local legacy event and it was silly.
I was traditionally running a creature heavy sideboard without council's judgement. It seems I have to adapt and not leave home without at least two in the side.
I really like the idea of splashing black for pontiff and perish. What are your thoughts on a singleton bitterblossom in the side for some help against miracles? I know gideon is better overall but an early bitterblossom could be easier to land if you have a Thalia out and are on the mana denial plan. I plan to try the build out this week.
When I ran black-splash about a year ago to the day, I had a Bitterblossom in the side to go with my already in place mini-Enlightened Tutor package. It won me a few games by itself, but mostly the decks I wanted it for - Miracles, BUG Cascade, Jund, StoneBlade, etc. - were already siding in artifact hate, being that I was DnT, obvious move - and putting my focus into resolving Bitterblossom started to be ineffectual. The card just gets caught in the cross-fire of Abrupt Decay, Wear//Tear, Council's Judgment, Krosan Grip, and Disenchant. At least equipment can be put into the field at instant-speed with Mystic, so you don't necessarily just lay the table for your opponent. So sometimes it works well, sometimes it gets zapped before it's any consequence, and other times it is drawn when you are too low on life, so it is a dead card.
Orzhov Pontiff, however, I will rave about all day, as it's the only synergistic sweeper effect for the deck, save of course for the newer Minister of Pain, which I feel is inferior for what DnT wants to be doing, but which might in fact be better for certain BUG Aluren builds. The fact that it doesn't hit Leovold wouldn't stop me from running it, but if black was a light addition before, it might now be worth the medium addition again if Leo gains a larger share of the meta. He was already in top 20 creatures last time I checked, and nearly all the accompanying non-True-Name, non-Gurmag creatures would be hit by Perish, so it's a legitimate consideration. However, Graveyard hate would still be needed in the overall, and the Pontiff -1/-1 effect or something similar enough would still need to be included to have all bases covered vs. all the new-age BUG. That's quite a wide net, and it makes those decks seem fairly good. I do get pumped over a possible scenario where my opponent has a Leovold and maybe even some other x/1 creature in play, and I just a Thalia and a Vial, and I swing with Thalia, he blocks with Leo, and I Vial in Pontiff for the super-slick total wipe. But that's Christmas, Perish seems like a good filler for the other 364 days.
Want to continue with Fatal Push. In real game situations, it will not always get those CMC3 and CMC4 creatures. That's just a simple matter of fact. The Revolt ability might as well be a much worse version of Landfall that only works with fetchlands, so to compensate it also works for trade/chump blocking on your opponent's turn. Also, when prepared for it, you can kill something quick and efficiently of your opponent's after they've killed something of yours. So, you might be able to wait it out to reach a situation where you can kill Leovold or Flickerwisp or Thought-Knot Seer with it, but other times, the optimal situation to cast it comes when you can only get the CMC2 or less half of the spell. With that in mind, yes, it at the least replaces Disfigure in situations where that is run, but it does also require that your deck has enough common ways to trigger Revolt.
Lightning Bolt though, is another thing entirely. Not only is the reach the best part of Lighting Bolt, but something like Fatal Push can't stack with other effects to get to creatures out of reach of both spells, like Gurmag Angler, Reality Smasher, Endbringer, Sire of Insanity, or Chancellor of Annex. The zombie fish and Eldrazi being the more likely of creatures to encounter in this manner, chump-block with Bolt, bonus points if achieved with Snapcaster Mage, will nab a few things Fatal Push cannot.
I expect the card to make it into the format, but it doesn't dramatically change things. Mostly, those decks using Bolt are aggro, and often close out games with burn to the dome, but it should also be noted Bolt has already taken a hit in popularity over the last year, probably up to -10% in the overall in reported finishes. More accurately to now, the past two months of placed finishes say Lightning Bolt is only 15.7% of the meta now, a distant third to Abrupt Decay for top removal spells. I recall it being first, or second only to Plowshares, for a while. This probably represents a general downturn for Delver in the overall. Less people are playing it from the heydays of RUG and the company spawned from that. Grixis is top dog now, and UR is close behind it. In the Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time days as well, it just made sense. I wouldn't expect Bolt to fall much further than it has already as such.
the problem with Revoker on Cavern Harpy is Arctic Merfolk (yes, actually becoming a thing), and the problem with Canonist is Bone Shredder/Rec Sage; Gryff just doesn't care about either of them.
I mean, you can't win em all. In the meantime, Mother of Runes + Ethersworn is a near GG by itself.
Pontiff finally coming around! Lemme tell ya, I've won matches I had no business winning because of that card.
I am also continuously puzzled THC isn't treated more like a staple. There are so few instances where I side out both copies these days. There have been enough games played now where I've noted dropping THC on Turn FOUR, then watching the results. A big part of the argument against her usage is that she needs to come down on turn 3, and still others argue she needs to come down even earlier than that to be valuable. What I found - anecdotally, but with enough instances to form an argument - is that, for the whole of the format as it exists now, THC on turn 4 is still pretty damn effective.
Perhaps it plays more into a strategy where you want to develop a board of 4 or so lands, then blow your saved Wasteland and start Porting for the rest of the game, if possible. Now, if the early Wasteland is the best play, then it is, but the mid-game one is sometimes the better play. You are effectively able to set your opponent back multiple turns in board development if timed right. Even Turn 4, dropping the THC, then Wastelanding, your opponent is now back down to 2 lands, then the next land they play comes in tapped - still at 2 effectively - then they pass. You attack, do whatever, then pass, Port 1, but possibly 2 lands on his upkeep. He has that one land that came into play tapped from Thalia now untapped, and either fetches a basic, or if it was a nonbasic that can tap for mana, can now use it. If he's able to even draw another land, he can drop it, and he's still at a max of 2 mana if you Ported 1 land, or he only has 1 mana if you Ported 2 lands. And we're at his turn 5 right now. He's made a drop every turn, and has 1 or 2 mana for sorcery-speed spells.
I sort of see THC as a free auto-port every turn, least until the real Port arrives. Port is generally only a repetitive strategy mid-to-late game. Sure, we all do the Turn 2 Port-your-opponent's land on upkeep, but when we untap, it's usually time to land a business spell or two, then get back to the vice grip afterwards. I don't know... I've taken to adopting a strategy where, when it comes to turn 3 or 4, and I have multiple creatures in hand I can play, I tend to favor THC if she's available, and am seldom let down.
If anything, you should keep you 2 Rest in Peace and just augment another 2-4 pieces of sideboard to your preferred Turn 0 Yard Hate, like this guy did, who Top 8'ed GP Chiba. I wouldn't toss Rest in Peace while Deathrite Shaman is legal, especially since it's still the most commonly played creature by far.
Drew 7 cards off of it over the weekend. In one game.
BAM. That's what I'm talking about. If a card costs 4 mana, it better well start stealing the game away, which is what Jailer has been doing for me. You do need to exercise a bit of caution with it, basically as much as possible ensuring you do not get dealt combat damage. Perhaps you even pick the "lesser" of two creatures to exile because of this, but the auto-card advantage is eventually too much to be overcome.
^Well, I'd say given the somewhat homogenous nature of the Chiba meta (read: all Miracles), 22 lands might actually have been the right call. That DnT player has the only Wastelands in Top 8. I didn't see every match to be sure, but I saw no Delver whatsoever, so it's at least not as common over there.
It remains to be seen how good Elves will be, but I'd bank on its success, personally. At the same time, it's "what cards are good against Elves than can be maindecked?" Big Thalia comes to mind, perhaps Aven Mindcensor. I wouldn't try Containment Priest maindeck, BUT if Storm also becomes a Deck To Beat, then a single Ethersworn that can be tutored with Recruiter is pretty good. However, between THC/Mindcensor/Canonist, THC shuts off more of their deck through a different means of taxing, whereas Mindcensor only goes after Natty O and GSZenith, and Canonist only goes after Glimpse, or even just a straight dump of their hand to get ahead on board.
Black splash still looks good as a result. I've felt Pontiff is good enough to maindeck for almost a year, and have done it myself to the tune of a few SoCal Top 8s. It *still* may not be enough for Elves though....
That said, I don't know if it necessarily applies to THC. I'd likely still play the card in a mono-white shell. In fact, such a build wouldn't have a Pontiff, so an extra spot makes it all the more likely THC would be included. Until something gets printed that's clearly better than THC AND Avenger, I choose THC for now. Call it wrong or call it just a different direction to the same end, I'm definitely satisfied with her performance, and end up with satisfactory tournament results as such with her, so I see no reason to change course just because it's not "stock" anymore.
I don't like pure beaters in this deck, never have. They are sometimes a necessity, but Recruiter sort of lowers the need for high numbers of them. Why are pure beaters "bad"? Well, you end up playing a card that is vanilla as all hell against most all combo matches, and combo is even a bit higher % of the meta share than it was some 6 months ago or so. I remember when it had gone under 20% total, but now with Sneak/Omni/Show and Reanimator both doing well, combo is at 28% in live tournaments as of this writing. If you count MTGO results, the last two weeks for all Legacy results put it at 26%. I tend to favor the live-only results, however, being that certain card prices on MTGO skew the natural % of meta each deck really is.
Point is, if it can be helped, I'd rather not run excess of cards that are laughable against at least a quarter of decks. THC is a beater, but she has decent game against most combo if you make it that far. Should you not even live to turn 3, all your extra Crusaders and Avengers are still worthless. At least with THC, you have a shot at doing something against almost all of the meta, not just fair decks where the correct removal resilience lines up (e.g., you draw Mirran against BUG and not Grixis Delver, or you land Avenger against a Punishing Fire deck as opposed to a Fatal Push deck or the like).
If you're asking do I specifically miss those things out of Avenger, sure maybe once in a while. Not enough to lose games though. It's a different path to victory, but whereas Avenger is just a very good shot at 3 a turn with decent defense, you get a tax with Thalia and First Strike. But the other thing to point out here is that we're not just comparing THC to Avenger, as I am using her in the slots I would consider possible Mirran Crusaders as well. So yea, to the point that either of those beaters would connect with equipment easier with an opposing Wirewood Symbiote in play, sure. This is just a specific scenario, however, involving the presence of 3 specific cards to really get an advantage on THC, who provides a huge boost just by herself. Also to note, in either scenario with Wirewood in play, drawing a Mom also renders the point moot, for the flip side of the coin, because you can then just push through with pro-green. However, I don't go to that point first because it involves another card, same as when Mirran or Avenger might get a leg up for combat scenarios.
The larger point on if I was presenting her pros in a vacuum: that's kind of hard to define or quantify. The scenario you listed for Avenger being able to push through damage against that deck because of her flying ability is exactly an advantage she has in a vacuum, as it's one scenario. When you consider every one of the scenarios put together where it matters when an Elf or 90% of their lands come into play tapped or not, I think now we are indeed outside of that type of thinking. I hope this is how I was illustrating her pluses, but if it wasn't clear enough before, maybe this lends some clarity. I just consider the overall multitude of play scenarios, both involving synergy with your opponents and your own cards, and find I like the overall package of Thalis 2 better than Avenger. Both Crusader and Wisp can be gotten with Recruiter, so finding evasion is not a common problem.
In the overall, you have Recruiter to thank for points in THC's favor, since DnT's specifically needed niche cards can just be tutored, and again, like has been mentioned by many here as an annoyance against Avenger's favor, is the fact that you have to blind draw her, which means you either beef up on the card with 3 copies to make her a common enough occurrence, or just having the miser's copy like I see a few people doing these days is - really - just adding flavor to the deck, seasoning. You are not depending on Avenger in a non-Brainstorm deck until you run 3. Just at that, Avenger has to be considered less likely to even see play than any other creature in the deck, for all the combined scenarios when you land a Recruiter. There's always an instance where you will fetch even the not oft-fetched creatures, like a Mom, Revoker, or even a THC.
Crusader is absolutely a great card, and everyone should run at least one right now. I don't personally put so much stock in needing to naturally draw the guy. Recruiter pads Crusader to a virtual 3-of with almost no effort. Continuing to make sure we're not just discussing 'in a vacuum' too, there will be in-game situations where Karakas will actually provide protection against all removal, but again, I'm not counting on that, just acknowledging that it will come up and matter sometimes. Ditto any time where to even cast that Decay on anything of yours, your opponent needs one more color, and he is forced to play a nonbasic land into THC, and then can't even cast Decay for a turn or 2 anyway. Just a larger point about synergy that I've preferred cards other than Avenger for some time.
Only when the preferred position for Vial is @2, like with Wg Teeg/Pridemage Taxes, or Wb Dark (Confidant) n' Taxes, was I more pumped about Avenger in general. While we use CMC3 guys like Recruiter, Prelate, Crusader, and of course, Holy Wisp anyways, I most often defer to additional 3-drops over Avengers, the faux-2-drop. It's just cake that THC is also very easy to cast, like Recruiter. Easier to cast and equal or quicker to the board than Avenger in general.
I reason she is a 2-of card that stays a 2-of in normal "fair" matches when you are on the play (and the odd combo like Elves and Sneak/Show), and she is cut or reduced to 1 when on the draw - when not in a match where her ability extends its value well into the late game, such as against Eldrazi.
But say the "problem" with THC is her being late to the party at all. Thing about this argument is that nothing her ability does isn't somehow mimicked as a similar mechanic from other cards in the deck, which is to say, taxation. We can all agree a Port generally has more impact when the opponent has only two lands as opposed to six. Doesn't mean Port is a bad rip late in the game, as I'd similarly say of Thalia 2 as a 3/2 First-Striker. The whole reason stuff like Judge's Familiar gets weeded out over time is because when you're in the thick of it mid-to-late game, a vanilla 1/1 Flyer doesn't pack a lot of punch. THC's body I'd not say the same, and in fact she is one of the better aggressive choices we have in general.
Miracles - THC is probably the best beater in the deck ahead of her older sister simply because of Karakas-protection. Enables Vial @3 to be the optimal setting for this deck as well, whereas Vial @2 (awkward) can be the best setting if you want to ensure TGT is in play.
DnT - Like Thalia 1, I'd incline to siding THC mostly out as well just because of their high count of Karakas, but in a G1 scenario, she is certainly better than TGT.
BUG Cascade - A matchup without Daze represents an optimal time to slam the turn 3 THC. But even beyond that, this is a Tarmogoyf matchup, which means blocking. If you can pair her up with her sister, you can make a pretty kickass 5-power-First-Strike wall, which also carries over to being great against Eldrazi, BUG Delver, Jund, and Grixis Delver, to mention a few. However, this is also a matchup where you want to continually squeeze on mana, being that their spells are mostly pretty expensive, compared with say, Delver, where costing more than 2 mana for anything is an abomination. So, just by herself, I see THC pulling plenty of weight in this one, as it comes to lands, an especially things like the BUG player turning the tide because he cascades Strix off a Shardless Agent when just last turn you were going aggro. Well, perhaps that extra one turn of free attacks is just what you needed in the end to win, and this could be a turn 15+ scenario. Anyway, BUG Cascade generally likes to gum up the works, and THC curbs that no matter when she enters.
Grixis Delver - Triumphant here. All their stuff is nonbasic. 3/2 FS here lets you get pretty aggressive.
Sneak Show - A true maindeck out to Sneak Attack beyond Revoker. Also meaning Karakas-savable, and Re-Vial-able after an unpreventable Kozilek's Return, which your Revoker isn't getting out of. Getting beats going against combo is the name of the game as well, and 3 is quite respectable with a game-winning tax.
So those are prob the top 5 decks now, and THC is great or even one of the best cards IMO against 4 of them. This isn't to mention her skills against Elves, still the worst matchup. I'll shore up a "worst" matchup without changing any fundamental aspect of the deck framework any ol' day of the week. Again as well, in the overall and in practice, you just use her in game 1s, then when on the play. Sometimes you have maindeck material this is less relevant than THC anyway, so you side that out and she stays in even on the draw, or she stays in because she's good all the time, like against Eldrazi. It's different for every match, but the general rule I go by is use it like you would Daze or Stifle when on play/draw. That's generally how to get the best value out of her. Being a THC advocate, I'd perhaps write up a more detailed matchup siding guide later.
Btw, one of my opponents firmly said he was going to call Mystic a "he" when I referred to her as "her" when we were on a stack-based recap. Bit odd.
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Mother of Runes
4 Flickerwisp
3 Phyrexian Revoker
2 Recruiter of the Guard
2 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
1 Mirran Crusader
1 Sanctum Prelate
1 Orzhov Pontiff
4 Aether Vial
4 Swords to Plowshares
1 Sword of Light and Shadow
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Batterskull
2 Flooded Strand
2 Scrubland
2 Cavern of Souls
3 Karakas
4 Rishadan Port
4 Wasteland
2 Ethersworn Canonist
2 Disenchant
2 Rest in Peace
2 Path to Exile
1 Council's Judgment
1 Faerie Macabre
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Pithing Needle
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Containment Priest
First thing is that increasingly, I'm feeling like SoFaI is only our maindeck sword to have an out past True-Name Nemesis. The top two removal, basically neck-and-neck right now, are Plowshares and Abrupt Decay. This is not to mention that the new Fatal Push is at least 10% of the meta, and probably slowly growing over time. So, going with Medea's idea of Sword of War and Peace - getting the pro-white maindeck - I went one further to add the pro-black route over the pro-red route, being Lightning Bolt is sort of underplayed right now. With SoLaS, you also make your regular Decay-wielding opponents go for the Sword itself instead of your creature, and if you equip to an x/2, SoLaS makes the creature effectively Bolt-proof anyway.
Now, I only felt bold enough to try this because I was already running and out to kill TNN maindeck, in that fetchable singleton Pontiff. Already having an out to TNN freed me from the perceived necessity of having pro-blue. The Lifegain and "return any creature from yard to hand" abilities on SoLaS were overall pretty decent on the day, but it's the pro-color-combo of BW that really makes it enticing.
R1, Shardless BUG - I win the roll and get a turn 3 THC on board, which hamstrings him all game. Go to G2, where he casts a turn 2 Hymn that nets my much-wanted Cavern of Souls. I am stuck on two mana and he starts encroaching, so I just concede for sake of time to go to G3. Here I get my Batteskull Maelstrom Pulsed, but topdeck a Rest in Peace at an opportune time and run over his paltry Goyfs and Squirerite Shamans. 2-1, 1-0.
R2 is UBg Reanimator. It's the guy's first Legacy tournament, so he made a few mistakes that possibly cost him the match, but I drew well enough anyway. Karakas on his G1 Griselbrand with a Mom-protected Wisp, then in G2, we stall out with another Mom-protected Wisp vs. Iona, Shield of Emeria, but after 5 or so turns of "Draw, Go", I find a Karakas, bounce his fatty, and commence beatdown. 2-0, 2-0.
R3, Aggro Loam. This guy plays Loam all the time and he's very good at it. G1 I wrap up quickly being that he is short on lands and I get Batterskull into play pretty much uncontested, then have a Vial>>Wisp for his Marit Lage token. G2 we stall out a bit, but he lands a big Knight of the Reliquary, then a Liliana. I don't have enough to catchup. G3 we go tit-for-tat for a bit, but I cant find a threat, and though I exiled his first Dark Confidant, he finds another, and before long he is discarding Lilianas to Lilianas, so I call it quits a turn or two before the inevitable to have time for a bite to eat. 1-2, 2-1.
R4 is Eldrazi. We slog out a super long game 1 which I won from ultimately baiting an Endbringer ping early before being able to Flicker a Recruiter to fetch up Revoker to shut down Endbringer for my next turn, then swung in on a SoLaS-equippd Wisp to swing the game safely in my favor. Game 2 he almost gets there, but I again muck up the board with Recruiter-chump blockers long enough to get Batterskull and flyers out. I win G2 on Turn 2 of untimed turns. 2-0, 3-1.
R5, Burn. I have a sick clutch play in game one where he Fireblasts my Batterskull-equipped Germ token when I am attacking, and I Vial in Pontiff to make it a 5/5. Second game, I am oddly enough able to do the same thing, though it was probably a done deal when I'd got a Mom-protected T3-Vialed Mystic>>Skull anyway. 2-0, 4-1.
R6 I am in 5th and ID with my opponent who is 6th. We have better breakers than everyone. I stick around until Top 8, and it seems the consensus is for everyone to split the cash prize, so I call it a day.
In the overall, I really dug SoLaS, unconventional choice as it is. As long as I'm still running Pontiff and Bolt is <20% of the metagame, it seems like a fine choice. I don't know if not having a TNN answer in your maindeck precludes SoLaS from being a good choice over SoFaI, but thankfully, it was something I didn't have to wrestle with, being such a Pontiff fan.
Then it turned out we were largely playing Suntail Hawk, at least a noticeable majority of the time. Not good enough for Legacy. Most importantly though, it's one of those cards that depreciates in value quite fast. I don't remember how long we rooted for it, or who publicly shamed the bird first, but it is indeed a dream deferred.
Orzhov Pontiff, however, I will rave about all day, as it's the only synergistic sweeper effect for the deck, save of course for the newer Minister of Pain, which I feel is inferior for what DnT wants to be doing, but which might in fact be better for certain BUG Aluren builds. The fact that it doesn't hit Leovold wouldn't stop me from running it, but if black was a light addition before, it might now be worth the medium addition again if Leo gains a larger share of the meta. He was already in top 20 creatures last time I checked, and nearly all the accompanying non-True-Name, non-Gurmag creatures would be hit by Perish, so it's a legitimate consideration. However, Graveyard hate would still be needed in the overall, and the Pontiff -1/-1 effect or something similar enough would still need to be included to have all bases covered vs. all the new-age BUG. That's quite a wide net, and it makes those decks seem fairly good. I do get pumped over a possible scenario where my opponent has a Leovold and maybe even some other x/1 creature in play, and I just a Thalia and a Vial, and I swing with Thalia, he blocks with Leo, and I Vial in Pontiff for the super-slick total wipe. But that's Christmas, Perish seems like a good filler for the other 364 days.
Want to continue with Fatal Push. In real game situations, it will not always get those CMC3 and CMC4 creatures. That's just a simple matter of fact. The Revolt ability might as well be a much worse version of Landfall that only works with fetchlands, so to compensate it also works for trade/chump blocking on your opponent's turn. Also, when prepared for it, you can kill something quick and efficiently of your opponent's after they've killed something of yours. So, you might be able to wait it out to reach a situation where you can kill Leovold or Flickerwisp or Thought-Knot Seer with it, but other times, the optimal situation to cast it comes when you can only get the CMC2 or less half of the spell. With that in mind, yes, it at the least replaces Disfigure in situations where that is run, but it does also require that your deck has enough common ways to trigger Revolt.
Lightning Bolt though, is another thing entirely. Not only is the reach the best part of Lighting Bolt, but something like Fatal Push can't stack with other effects to get to creatures out of reach of both spells, like Gurmag Angler, Reality Smasher, Endbringer, Sire of Insanity, or Chancellor of Annex. The zombie fish and Eldrazi being the more likely of creatures to encounter in this manner, chump-block with Bolt, bonus points if achieved with Snapcaster Mage, will nab a few things Fatal Push cannot.
I expect the card to make it into the format, but it doesn't dramatically change things. Mostly, those decks using Bolt are aggro, and often close out games with burn to the dome, but it should also be noted Bolt has already taken a hit in popularity over the last year, probably up to -10% in the overall in reported finishes. More accurately to now, the past two months of placed finishes say Lightning Bolt is only 15.7% of the meta now, a distant third to Abrupt Decay for top removal spells. I recall it being first, or second only to Plowshares, for a while. This probably represents a general downturn for Delver in the overall. Less people are playing it from the heydays of RUG and the company spawned from that. Grixis is top dog now, and UR is close behind it. In the Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time days as well, it just made sense. I wouldn't expect Bolt to fall much further than it has already as such.
Good luck to everyone left in GP Louisville.
I am also continuously puzzled THC isn't treated more like a staple. There are so few instances where I side out both copies these days. There have been enough games played now where I've noted dropping THC on Turn FOUR, then watching the results. A big part of the argument against her usage is that she needs to come down on turn 3, and still others argue she needs to come down even earlier than that to be valuable. What I found - anecdotally, but with enough instances to form an argument - is that, for the whole of the format as it exists now, THC on turn 4 is still pretty damn effective.
Perhaps it plays more into a strategy where you want to develop a board of 4 or so lands, then blow your saved Wasteland and start Porting for the rest of the game, if possible. Now, if the early Wasteland is the best play, then it is, but the mid-game one is sometimes the better play. You are effectively able to set your opponent back multiple turns in board development if timed right. Even Turn 4, dropping the THC, then Wastelanding, your opponent is now back down to 2 lands, then the next land they play comes in tapped - still at 2 effectively - then they pass. You attack, do whatever, then pass, Port 1, but possibly 2 lands on his upkeep. He has that one land that came into play tapped from Thalia now untapped, and either fetches a basic, or if it was a nonbasic that can tap for mana, can now use it. If he's able to even draw another land, he can drop it, and he's still at a max of 2 mana if you Ported 1 land, or he only has 1 mana if you Ported 2 lands. And we're at his turn 5 right now. He's made a drop every turn, and has 1 or 2 mana for sorcery-speed spells.
I sort of see THC as a free auto-port every turn, least until the real Port arrives. Port is generally only a repetitive strategy mid-to-late game. Sure, we all do the Turn 2 Port-your-opponent's land on upkeep, but when we untap, it's usually time to land a business spell or two, then get back to the vice grip afterwards. I don't know... I've taken to adopting a strategy where, when it comes to turn 3 or 4, and I have multiple creatures in hand I can play, I tend to favor THC if she's available, and am seldom let down.