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    posted a message on [Primer] UR and RUG Twin (8/2012 - 2/2015)
    Quote from alpinefroggy »
    so much better or so much worse? I love keranos, its more incremental advantage and is downright unkillable


    I don't want to gain incremental advantage, I want to win!

    Keranos doesn't do a thing about a Siege Rhino or Tarmogoyf on the board. He can't play through an Abrupt Decay from an opponent. He won't beat a Delver player holding Combust. He can't even bolt an opponent who has a Spellskite on the board. Twin doesn't have three Cryptic Commands any more - it can't play that incremental game where you can sit back and counter everything. I liked Batterskull but people are wise to that now and just Smash to Smithereens your card.

    Anyway, I'm not here to win converts. I cut Keranos a long time ago and never regretted it. Teferi was a whole lot better at five mana, for that matter.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
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    posted a message on [Primer] UR and RUG Twin (8/2012 - 2/2015)
    I came up with Titan a few pages back and I've been really pleased with it. By the time you've attacked the next turn, you've dealt 12 damage + anything you can firebreathe for, so it usually ends the game in a single attack. It gets past Etched Champion, laughs at Dismember, gets value from Vapor Snag, etc. I do find that you need to have one or two more lands in the deck to really feel comfortable with it. So much better than junk like Keranos, though.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
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    posted a message on [Primer] UR and RUG Twin (8/2012 - 2/2015)
    Delver is a pretty easy match but it has a big learning curve. Mulligans are really important, threat assessment, etc. The fact that their deck is full of air really helps. You're not really trying to combo that deck but just run them out of cards and have a couple points of life left over. I'm always paranoid about UWR Control but again, you gotta remember that Twin is a huge threat against them. You've got a Sphere of Resistance on them since they have to keep a Path up all the time. They have no combo kill. They have to respect your combo kill even if you board it out and you've got junk like Blood Moon that really mess 'em up, too.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
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    posted a message on
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    posted a message on I think someone is stealing our mail, and the post office is of no help
    I'm baffled about why a security camera would help. Do you think it'll make the cops start caring? It sounds like they already have a case of "not our problem." Its only possible use would be to serve as evidence in a court case, if it was useful there. A security camera will do nothing to deter thievery. It'll just give you a weak sense of safety - the end result being "when I get my mail stolen again, at least I'll see a grainy frame of someone who took it."

    Your options are limited beyond getting your mail delivered elsewhere.

    If you have not already, add yourself to the "no credit card offers" list.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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    posted a message on [Primer] Melira Pod / Angel Pod / Junk Pod / Abzan Pod (8/2011 - 1/2015)
    You scry until you hit Birthing Pod most of the time. That way, if they hit your Melira while you are at [arbitrary number] life total, you can Pod back into the combo. You can also Pod Finks out for Redcap for the same amount of mana as just casting Redcap. If your opponent still won't concede or has outs to Redcaps? Umm, Gavony Township beats? Their attack step means nothing to you.

    Edit: On the Scavenging Ooze front, I've been running Nekrataal and loving it, but nobody else seems to have room for it. You can actually beat a Deathrite Shaman on the board if you have two Kitchen Finks. Just sacrifice one, let them attempt to remove it, and then start comboing off with the other one. Play to your outs.
    Posted in: Modern Archives - Proven
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    posted a message on Cornering the market (List of cornered markets in the OP, updated constantly!)
    The only actual cornered markets I know of are Alpha Animate Wall and Alpha Purelace and friends. There are about 1,100 copies of each card and one or more people own large amounts of each of those cards' print run. The rest of the stuff in this thread is just price running, not cornered markets. Having 20% of the Alpha Animate Walls and buying as many as you see come on the market means that the card's price is way inflated versus its actual value.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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    posted a message on Redeeming just became a lot less profitable
    Carta Mundi does the printing of Magic cards. And check it out, I actually investigated their presses so I have real numbers to tell you. They use the KBA Rapida 106 Perfector Press, which has a speed of 16,500 sheets per hour.

    Since they redeem about 200,000 sets per expansion, we can work from there.

    A Magic sheet has 121 cards on it (11x11). Gatecrash had 249 cards in it, so a little more than two sheets' worth. For the purposes of this, though, I'm going to assume that CM can help me fudge numbers and print an extra 7 cards on one sheet to make up for the difference.

    That means that CM's presses can run off 8,250 full sets in an hour. They can meet my full order of 200,000 sets in 23.5 hours, or three work shifts. A sheet of Magic cards is very inexpensive and we are dealing with economies of scale here. Since the cost of assembling the packs is the more labor-intensive part, I'll assume away the cardboard costs per set (and we can total them up later).

    For each set, you are taking a collection of pre-cut cards, putting them in order, shrinkwrapping them and then storing and shipping them. CM can already do this, since they "randomly" collate and assemble Magic packs already! It's no stretch for them to cut the cards and then have them put into a pack in order, since they do this anyway for things like Duel Decks. But if we're not considering that they do that and I have to take unsorted cards and sort them myself, that's still doable. All it takes is a team of about five people, I'd wager - you have someone sort by color, then then next two people sort the color cards into individual cards, then have the next two people assemble complete sets from those cards. Let's say it takes a full month to do this, which would be twenty man-weeks. If I pay my workers a very generous $13 an hour to do this, it still only costs $10,400! Oh, you say, health care costs are rising and it takes more time to sort cards? Quadruple it. I'm still going to make obscene profits at a cost of $41,600 to sort all of these in a fantasy-land where CM doesn't do the sorting for me. That cost of labor, at $13 an hour for 80 man-weeks? That accounts for 4% of the $5 I'm making from you. It costs me twenty cents in labor to make your set.

    To lose money, CM has to charge me $4.81 to print and cut one set (without sorting). And that does not happen.

    And here's why I'll still make obscene profits. At $5 processing and 200,000 sets, I'm making $1,000,000 and I don't have to pay to ship them - you, my customers, do. When you order, my employee will take the preprinted label, put it on the preboxed set and mail it. That takes all of four minutes or so. That employee is part-time, no benefits, because I only fulfill orders on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

    If WOTC actually turned the "problem" of fulfillment into an opportunity and outsourced it, I would love to bid on it on behalf of my company. I would get rich in short order. I won't, though, because they don't actually have a problem. They don't have any fulfillment issues that aren't caused by being a big and inefficient business. They want to turn that $1mil they make per set on redemptions into $5mil. Like Tom Sawyer, they could have gotten an outside company to pay them to paint their fence. As it stands, there's no justifiable business sense for quintupling the price because there's no actual problem of labor here. So unless someone can show where my math is blatantly wrong, can we move past this hoary chestnut of "rising labor costs?" It's shamefully false.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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    posted a message on Redeeming just became a lot less profitable
    The ACA penalty for 2014 is $95, $325 in 2015 and $695 in 2016 (or alternately 1/2/2.5% taxable income). Not $2,300. What an absurd idea to toss out guessed numbers when we have Google : \

    Raising a price from $5 to $25 is not adjusting to a new cost of goods shipped. It's brigandry. It absolutely does not cost $25 to collate and ship these sets. This is a policy move from WOTC, likely intended to stop redemptions for reasons other than "these cost too much to fulfill." The shameful thing is that they prefer to mislead their customers rather than explain a policy change.

    This is also a highly appropriate time to remind people that M:TG is a luxury product, it makes buckets of money for Hasbro and it was largely unaffected by the global recession. If you want to know even more about just how much M:TG makes, Hasbro announces their 2012 Q4 earnings tomorrow at 4:30 or so, after markets close. Close readers should be able to get a handle on how many hundreds of millions the company makes from our little card game.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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    posted a message on A printable Gatecrash prices cheat-sheet for the Prerelease
    I think it's so important that everyone has a good idea of what prices are at prereleases. I hear people brag that "I got this guy to trade me his Snapcaster Mage and I gave him a Rakdos! How great is that!" and it makes my skin crawl - that's not ethical in the least and it's not necessary, either!

    Anyway, off my soapbox Grin Here's a printable list of all the Gatecrash cards that currently sell for more than $1.

    Link

    I predict that prices will mostly drop about 25% in the next few weeks, but this is the first reference. I think it's really interesting that even things like the shocklands are only $13 or so - not much over the $10 that the other ones sell for and much lower than the $15+ we saw the first time around. It's pretty cool to see the market work on those.
    Posted in: Market Street Café
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