I would like to take a moment to thank the moderators for the measured response that was just taken. I posted a deck list i was considering yesterday and I probably should not have done that. Anyway my point is....
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR NOT BANNING DISCUSSION OR LOCKING THE THREAD RIGHT BEFORE THE BIG JAN ANNOUNCEMENT.
On a different note: is there a new ban/unban poll for this announcement? And what shell is the first you would try SFM in? I'm working on a BW shell with bitterblossom and squadron hawks.
I think these last few posts have been calm an reasonable, even with different opinions. This is great.
I do run 4 kiki-jiki in the build I have now. In my experiance the creature removal has not been the problem, it's the 5 cmc that makes him so much worse. I don't play this deck much anymore because it will finish an FNM with a 2-4 record. With twin being cheaper I was pulling 4-2 records.
I also think GSZ is an acceptable unban. It will be really good in green creature combo decks and allow for more early mana ramp by getting dryad arbor, but that encourages more interaction or you'll be run over by those new decks. I think most likely 1) SFM, 2) Twin, 3) GSZ as far as likelthood for this announcement. Looking past those 3 I think the likelihood is getting pretty slim for ever being unbanned, even though I personally believe a few more would be at the acceptable power level too. With any luck maybe we'll get two unbans again this year.
Ya I won't post any more deck lists. I hope I didn't actually bother anybody to much with that. I just wanted to show not everybody is trying to be ultra competitive and use twin like a crutch. I had a lot of fun with a build close to that before and I would so enjoy playing it again. With it being an all in combo deck it won't win as much as the tempo builds, but it was so fun.
I like his mix of main deck spells, but I don't really like the main deck Spellskites. It's not good against enough of the top decks to warrant the main deck spots. I don't really love the Forked Bolt either
I like this build well enough. I would make changes in my first build because I want an all in combo version.
I LOVE THE 2 MAIN DECK SPELLSKITES!
I was saved by my spellskites many times before the ban. Resolving two removal spells in a turn is way harder for your opponent than one.
This is not as good I'm sure, but this is what I would be trying out. This is an all in combo version. Side board needs anger of the gods and all kinds of things since my version is less flexible.
Like what? This was discussed previously several times and the general consensus is any upgrade was either fairly minimal, or a sidestep rather than a strict upgrade. Also, those proposing "but those upgrades!" haven't produced any hypothetical lists, showing what they would cut/change in order to make room for those "upgrades."
I don't want to argue with you and I agree twin should be unbanned. I think we should acknowledge the other sides concerns and admit that JTMS, AV and opt are POSSIBLE upgrades for the deck and have at least slightly increased the amount of risk in a twin unban.
And without going into the rabbit hole to far, those are just the obvious blue cards. If you went grixis k-command would be an upgrade and so on.
I agree twin should be unbanned but I don't think it is fair to say that there is zero risk or there have been no possible upgrades printed/unbanned.
Also I don't think it is fair to say all twin players had poor skills and used the deck like a crutch. Let's be fair to both sides.
My friends, the data doesnt lie. Twin was 55/45 vs Jund in the MTGO Data Set. Granted, I'm just a bad player that needs my Twin crutch, but them's the facts.
this is clearly a jab at my post, and im not sure why. i explicitly excluded you and cfp from the criticism. you and cfp stuck around, tried to make different things work, particularly in blue. if all you cared about was winning, or at least if you cared about winning much more than you do, then you would have either sought it out immediately or left the format.
i actually believe that twin was banned precisely because it had TOO MUCH play to it while also having the aspect of nutting all over your opponent even if they were trying to interact with you. the combo was as simple as it can get (play A+B), half of it was instant speed, and you won on the spot. those qualities, coupled with its power level, are going to win games or matches for a player that they had no right winning. so if you of cfp think that is insulting then im sorry, but for all those positive things twin had going on or was doing it still had that low effort 'free wins' aspect. if you cant see that then your perspective is skewed.
I also see it close to that, except for the free wins out of nowhere being undeserved. You could say that about storm, copy cat, aetherworks marvel legacy reanimator or any number of combo deck that effectivly wins on the spot, even weaker ones like seismic swan combo, jeskai ascendancy or cheerios. This just how combo decks function and that kind of win is deserved if it survives to sculpt whatever hand/graveyard/board state it needed to go off. I don't feel my view is skewed to badly for thinking that.
Twin was very powerful, had alot of high level wins and has recieved powerful new cards. I concede all those points. For the record I was a twin player because it was powerful and I love combo decks. Combo is part of the game and that includes simple powerful game winning combos. I play other combo decks now and I am really looking forward to the new birthing pod creature. But I really believe twin was, and would be again, on par for the appropriate power level for a teir 1 deck in modern. We didn't call it splinter twin winter.
I strongly think twin should be unbanned and so should SFM. I openly admit twin was real good, it was about 50-50 with jund, and it has received possible upgrades. I would certainly run opt over the sleight of hands I was using and I will find a place for 2 JTMS. AV I am less certain about. Their are probably other upgrades too. There is risk in unbanning twin and I don't think that can be ignored, but I think it's worth it. Most of the unbans carried risk at the time and have been proven fine after deck tuning adjustments.
We have another prominent UR deck right now because of archlight phoenix, so that may take some of twin's market share just because those decks are already built, its also very good and in the same colors.
I like your combo. I have played a few versions of the seismic swan combo deck from its time in standard up til now and I have tried putting boros reckoner in it with anger of the gods and bloodmoon. I am going to focus on the boros reckoner for a while because the swan has a few other topics, what is new here is the synergy with the revkoner. It just never done as much as I wanted it to. Reckoner didn't win the game, it didn't stabilize my board and it would not turn the tide in my favor if i was behind. I pulled the reckoner out and still play the deck some times. I do feel that synergy but I couldn't make it work as well as I wanted. I am not sure reckoner even has a place in modern really. I hope someone can make it work.
I would like to draw people's attention to the ban-unban poll for a min. Of coarse SFM is winning by a mile, but after that Preordain and splinter twin are tied at 68 votes each right now. I think that is worthy of note.
He is saying that if you ban something out of humans, or a similar style deck, there will be a replacement and the power level may not be greatly affected. Another example of this is jund with BBE and DRS. It took two bans to bring it in line and in reality what made jund acceptable power level was the rise of the power level of other decks and not just the result of the bannings.
There are strong cards to ban that could get hit like meddling mage aether vial or cavern of souls, but the deck will still function.
Humans is good, but its hard to say its 'too good' at this point. Its simply the best at what it does.
That's been used here plenty of times in the past to justify a ban. It shouldn't have been a good enough reason then, and it's still not a good reason now.
That's what I'm saying too. I do not support a humans ban, but I believe that, just like many modern best decks before it, it is likely being eyed as a ban target. It was the most played modern deck at the PT because it's considered the best by the pros. I think it is within reason that WOTC consider it for a ban. I DID NOT SAY BAN ANYTHING, just responsibly look at and thoughtfully consider like a good policy maker should. I believe they eyed GDS when it was the best and decided not to ban, we could be in that situation or the birthing pod/twin situation. We are all guessing which of those situations we are in and supporting our side with data points favorable to one side or the other, but I think we can agree that humans is being watched closely.
You guys know I am usually very strongly against bans but I still believe humans is a big target for a ban based primarily on meta share. I'm not saying I want it banned, just that I think it is being looked at as a target by WOTC. I am still withholding any serious judgement on KCI or the new dredgevine deck as I haven't played much with them. Generally I don't care much about ancient stirrings since the only deck I ever used it in is bloom titan, but I will lose my mind if they take my faithless lootings since I use it in 5 modern decks (both teir decks and homebrews).
I think new flavor of the week decks, like dredgevine, generally need a little more time to establish if it is a mainstay or a flash in the pan before any serious ban discussion can take place.
So...next topic? Control is fine, Modern is no less skill testing, and byes are a huge advantage regardless of format, while we know Wizards feels Modern is healthy.
Other than my eternal quest to find a true replacement of Twin, I'm not sure what else I can even gripe about, besides Tron/Stirrings...
Ya I mostly agree. I've tried blue moon, adnauseum, cheerios and other combo decks but I haven't found a deck I liked as much as twin. I've told myself for a long time now that I would be happy enough with the ban list if BBE and twin could just get unbanned. We are half way there!
It would be cool to have stuff like SFM, gsz or others unbanned but I'm not as motivated by any others. Sittings and tron are annoying but I'm not ready to take action against them yet.
If I'm understanding how you're calculating those numbers, there's a counterpoint that's been tangentially mentioned above. UW Control decks aren't even playing Serum Visions at the moment, not because it's not powerful, but because Opt works better for the miracled Terminus that's en vogue. Opt became Modern legal in early 2018, meaning your YoY numbers are skewed by the introduction of and cannibalization from a "weaker" cantrip that's better because of synergy. Preordain doesn't necessarily even slot into those decks if unbanned.
I'm looking only at decks that are running SV currently or could replace Opt with an unbanned Preordain. So this is the broadest possible definition of Preordain-compatible decks based on current deck constructions. This does not include decks that could change their current structure to run to Preordain (e.g. KCI ditching Stirrings and green to run Preordain). It just includes decks that are running Opt/SV right now. So like you said, it's actually a larger number than the number of decks that are truly running legitimate SV copies currently. That number is under 15%. This may "skew" the numbers, but if it does, it probably inflates the number of decks that would run Preordain. And that inflated number is still almost half of those running Stirrings.
As for Twin, I 100% support people arguing the Twin ban in terms of its actual language. This is how cards are unbanned; Wizards looks at an old ban, sees if that ban accomplished its goals, and sees how the unban would affect the current Modern. See explanations for unbanning Nacatl, BB, AV, BBE, JTMS, etc. The Twin unban camp consistently fails to address one of these arguments: why would Wizards would unban Twin when the share of non-Twin blue decks is SIGNIFICANTLY higher than it was when Twin was legal? Total blue share has dropped, we know. But total share of decks not playing Twin, however, is more than double what it was at the GP/PT level. I am not saying this increase was CAUSED by the Twin ban. I have never said this. I am simply stating that this diversity is the current state of Modern.
Why would Wizards jeopardize that with a card that is likely going to benefit from most of the new technology printed/unbanned for other blue decks? Why is the super conservative Wizards going to risk their diverse format with a card that, when last legal, saw non-Twin blue shares under 10% of the format and that they cited as a diversity violator? There is a small, vocal, persistent group of users who want this card unbanned and I am not trying to convince them. I don't think that group will be convinced by any argument I can make and maybe anyone can make. I am simply pointing out to anyone else who is evaluating the Twin unban debate that the unban Twin argument, as it is currently argued, has no traction given the current format and Wizards' current management style.
EDIT: If you just look strictly at decks running SV, it's 12.5% for 2018. If you include the decks not running SV that "could" run Preordain (i.e. blue-based combo and reactive decks), it's 17%. No matter how you cut it, Stirrings is 33%. That's a huge gap. One of those cards needs to be reevaluated and Wizards can figure out which one they want to focus on.
I would like to be very clear that this is a great arguement against twin. I can see this point and I don't have a problem admitting this point. Twin is a risky unban and in some ways the longer it goes the riskier or gets. The unbanning of AV Hurt the odds of a twin unban eventually, and the JTMS unban hurt it more. Search for azcanta doesn't help the chances for an unban and I realize this. If we got Preordain back I would just give up and accept twin will never be unbanned.
It would be a good deck to say the least and it carries risk.
But I believe it was fun to play, it was not unbeatable, it didn't break the turn four rule, they have printed more hate since it was banned that could help fight against it (authority of the counsels and fatal push among others), their are teir decks now that didn't exist before that would have decent favorability to win against twin (eldrazi tron, GDS, humans and hollow one might be pretty good too with the right draws). I just think it is on par for the format and would be one good deck among other good decks, but it is risky and I understand others having a different opinion than I do.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR NOT BANNING DISCUSSION OR LOCKING THE THREAD RIGHT BEFORE THE BIG JAN ANNOUNCEMENT.
On a different note: is there a new ban/unban poll for this announcement? And what shell is the first you would try SFM in? I'm working on a BW shell with bitterblossom and squadron hawks.
I do run 4 kiki-jiki in the build I have now. In my experiance the creature removal has not been the problem, it's the 5 cmc that makes him so much worse. I don't play this deck much anymore because it will finish an FNM with a 2-4 record. With twin being cheaper I was pulling 4-2 records.
I also think GSZ is an acceptable unban. It will be really good in green creature combo decks and allow for more early mana ramp by getting dryad arbor, but that encourages more interaction or you'll be run over by those new decks. I think most likely 1) SFM, 2) Twin, 3) GSZ as far as likelthood for this announcement. Looking past those 3 I think the likelihood is getting pretty slim for ever being unbanned, even though I personally believe a few more would be at the acceptable power level too. With any luck maybe we'll get two unbans again this year.
I like this build well enough. I would make changes in my first build because I want an all in combo version.
I LOVE THE 2 MAIN DECK SPELLSKITES!
I was saved by my spellskites many times before the ban. Resolving two removal spells in a turn is way harder for your opponent than one.
This is not as good I'm sure, but this is what I would be trying out. This is an all in combo version. Side board needs anger of the gods and all kinds of things since my version is less flexible.
2 Spellskite
4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Pestermite
2 kiki-jiki mirror breaker
4 Island
1 Mountain
1 Cascade Bluffs
1 Desolate Lighthouse
4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Spirebluff Canal
3 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls
3 blood moon
2 JTMS
2 Dispel
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Opt
4 Remand
4 Serum Visions
I don't want to argue with you and I agree twin should be unbanned. I think we should acknowledge the other sides concerns and admit that JTMS, AV and opt are POSSIBLE upgrades for the deck and have at least slightly increased the amount of risk in a twin unban.
And without going into the rabbit hole to far, those are just the obvious blue cards. If you went grixis k-command would be an upgrade and so on.
I agree twin should be unbanned but I don't think it is fair to say that there is zero risk or there have been no possible upgrades printed/unbanned.
Also I don't think it is fair to say all twin players had poor skills and used the deck like a crutch. Let's be fair to both sides.
I also see it close to that, except for the free wins out of nowhere being undeserved. You could say that about storm, copy cat, aetherworks marvel legacy reanimator or any number of combo deck that effectivly wins on the spot, even weaker ones like seismic swan combo, jeskai ascendancy or cheerios. This just how combo decks function and that kind of win is deserved if it survives to sculpt whatever hand/graveyard/board state it needed to go off. I don't feel my view is skewed to badly for thinking that.
Twin was very powerful, had alot of high level wins and has recieved powerful new cards. I concede all those points. For the record I was a twin player because it was powerful and I love combo decks. Combo is part of the game and that includes simple powerful game winning combos. I play other combo decks now and I am really looking forward to the new birthing pod creature. But I really believe twin was, and would be again, on par for the appropriate power level for a teir 1 deck in modern. We didn't call it splinter twin winter.
We have another prominent UR deck right now because of archlight phoenix, so that may take some of twin's market share just because those decks are already built, its also very good and in the same colors.
What I want:
ban: nothing.
unban: #1) TWIN #2) SFM #3) GSZ
There are strong cards to ban that could get hit like meddling mage aether vial or cavern of souls, but the deck will still function.
That's what I'm saying too. I do not support a humans ban, but I believe that, just like many modern best decks before it, it is likely being eyed as a ban target. It was the most played modern deck at the PT because it's considered the best by the pros. I think it is within reason that WOTC consider it for a ban. I DID NOT SAY BAN ANYTHING, just responsibly look at and thoughtfully consider like a good policy maker should. I believe they eyed GDS when it was the best and decided not to ban, we could be in that situation or the birthing pod/twin situation. We are all guessing which of those situations we are in and supporting our side with data points favorable to one side or the other, but I think we can agree that humans is being watched closely.
I think new flavor of the week decks, like dredgevine, generally need a little more time to establish if it is a mainstay or a flash in the pan before any serious ban discussion can take place.
Ya I mostly agree. I've tried blue moon, adnauseum, cheerios and other combo decks but I haven't found a deck I liked as much as twin. I've told myself for a long time now that I would be happy enough with the ban list if BBE and twin could just get unbanned. We are half way there!
It would be cool to have stuff like SFM, gsz or others unbanned but I'm not as motivated by any others. Sittings and tron are annoying but I'm not ready to take action against them yet.
I would like to be very clear that this is a great arguement against twin. I can see this point and I don't have a problem admitting this point. Twin is a risky unban and in some ways the longer it goes the riskier or gets. The unbanning of AV Hurt the odds of a twin unban eventually, and the JTMS unban hurt it more. Search for azcanta doesn't help the chances for an unban and I realize this. If we got Preordain back I would just give up and accept twin will never be unbanned.
It would be a good deck to say the least and it carries risk.
But I believe it was fun to play, it was not unbeatable, it didn't break the turn four rule, they have printed more hate since it was banned that could help fight against it (authority of the counsels and fatal push among others), their are teir decks now that didn't exist before that would have decent favorability to win against twin (eldrazi tron, GDS, humans and hollow one might be pretty good too with the right draws). I just think it is on par for the format and would be one good deck among other good decks, but it is risky and I understand others having a different opinion than I do.