I agree with the assessment that aggro decks have fewer but higher-impact decisions, while control decks have many more lower-impact ones over the course of the game.
And that's precisely why I believe playing aggro takes less skill.
Let's have a little thought experiment here. Say we have some average player (we'll call him A) that will make the correct decision half of the time, for whatever reason. Say that we also have an experienced player B who makes the correct decision 75-80% of the time.
If they are both playing a control deck, generally, B will be able to consistently make the correct decisions and gain the upper hand. In order for B to lose, A must make the correct decision many times over while B simultaneously choosing to misplay (as he has a 25% chance to do). Furthermore, as the game goes on and player B gains a substantial lead, A needs a much higher run of good decision making to turn it around. Past a certain point it will be flat out impossible for A to catch up no matter what he does. So player A must make a huge run of good decisions early on to acquire an unreachable lead over player B, something that is incredibly unlikely given that each decision is a coinflip. Even if we only require say, 8 correct decisions by player A, his chances of pulling that off are (.5)^8 = .39% Compare this with Player B's .75 ^ 8 = 10% chance - its over 20 times higher. If you allow them to each have 1 random bad decision thrown in there, I'm willing to guess that player B is still ahead by a landslide. But, as you all know, there are often many, many more then 8 decisions in any given control match. Also, if you upgrade player B to a season pro who plays correctly 95% of the time, the difference becomes even more insane - .95 ^ 8 = 66%, or in other words, 150+ times more likely to lock the game away in a hurry.
Now let's take aggro. Rolling with the assumption you stated, that aggro has fewer, higher impact decisions, let's say you can lock the game with only 4 decisions. Sooo...
Player A - .5 ^ 4 = 6.25%
Player B - .75 ^ 4 = 32%
Joe Pro - .95 ^ 4 = 81%
Now yes, Joe Pro will still probably beat Player B, who will still probably beat Player A. But the difference between them is much different. Instead of Player B being 20 times more likely to play perfectly, he's now only 5 times more likely.
Ok, so there are OBVIOUSLY flaws to this analysis. I only examined the likelihood that they would both play perfectly, odds of one person making more correct plays would be better, but that would almost certainly take a binomial distribution(or something like it) and I don't feel like rummaging for my advanced calc/going through that much effort. But the point still stands, when playing a control deck, the many decisions allows your skill to "pile up" over your opponent's, whereas in an aggro deck, you can just flip a coin on your decision making and get lucky a few times.
No with aggro, the main skill comes with the deckbuilding. I know early in the format, before I clued into how fast it was, and how to draft/build an aggressive deck, I lost all the time to players/decks that were theoretically "worse" - lower rating, had previously lost to me repeatedly, etc. They just happen to have drafted decks that were marginally aggressive and ran with it. Now that I know to actually pay attention to my curve, I've been doing WAY better, in fact I just won my first 8-4 today (I don't play MTGO often). I don't think my in game decision making has gotten harder. I don't think my technical play has improved significantly. What has changed is that now I actually make sure to have plays T1 and T2, and don't turn up my nose at Goblin Piker and Goblin Tunneler.
EDIT: As a sidenote, the best I've done in an IRL drafts as of late are when I paid close attention to my aggro-loving friend's advice on drafting to curve, or in one case, letting my friend give me tips while I'm building my deck. Coincidence? I think not...
Yes i think this is pretty much the point i was trying to make, great post!
Hmmm tough picks. In my local FNM scene, I would take the jade mage since green is VERY underdrafted but at an unknown place, I would probably take the serra angel. Its definitely a tough pick....
Its under drafted because its the weakest color. Serra Angel is in there with the top 3 uncommons, mind control and fireball.
Or luring your opponent into attacking with too much so you can blow hin out with a threaten effect after he allready stabilized?
If you compare the avrg. number of important decisions per turn, aggro is more skill intensive than control. Just the total number of important decisions in a control match is higher because of the longer game.
As others have said im looking forward to flashback. Alot of my losses in m12 are just drawing into land with nothing to do, and since m12 is an aggro format, a missed land or drawing too much can end the game quick.
At least with flashback if you get mana flooded you still have stuff to play and the games not over.
Why do you think that aggro doesn't need skill? Staying back and holding a mana leak is more skill-instensive than playing a dude?
Aggro is definitely a little bit more powerful in m12 compared to other strategies/archetypes. Turn 2 stormblood berserker and turn 4 vampire outcasts or gorehorn minotaurs is surely a beating! But it requires skill to identify the good synergies, play them correctly etc.
Because most the time its just play creatures and swing while using all your removal to zerg them down.
If you are playing control you have to make harder decisions, do you doomblade the 3/3 cant be blocked by two creatures or do you guess that he has something bigger and hold it.
Yup, and then he goes on MTGO and bombs out in rd1 from time to time. Same with David Ochoa, who had a string of first rd losses lately. I may be over-emphasizing just how much luck with the cards and draws have an impact on the outcomes in games, but some of you are over-emphasizing skill.
Yes i actually watch both those guys, Ochoa seems to get alot of flack but hes one of the best limited players. It just shows that luck is always a factor.
Also i noticed that Ochoa is really wary to get into green which i agree with.
So you're running 3 of an aggro 1 drop...in a deck that wants to ramp to Acidic Slime and Primeval Titan? They're each good cards on their own, but together they're just a giant lump of anti synergy. I'd work on your attitude as well.
See you didnt actually read what i said. 3 of a good one drop in any deck, even BETTER when im running overrun and 2 of the bloodthirst lifelink vampire.
From what Ive seen so far i would say yes. Got third place last draft(the guy i lost to won), losing to a red/blue aggro deck with zero bombs.
I was running green/black, my 4th week running green since i always get pushed into it. My deck was solid though, 2 doomblades, 2 wring flesh, 2 acidic slimes, primieval titan, gravedigger, 3 of the 1/1 unblockable which enabled my 2/2 lifelink bloodthirst 2 vampire. Also had the spider that kills flyers, i felt i definitely should have won.
I'm sorry bro, I don't need you to tell me this late into the format how good or not good a card is. I know what decks it goes or does not go into, how to build around it, and have played with and against it often enough to have my own assessment. The fact that most of what you said also applies to warstorm surge, which also easily sits in your hand or does nothing after you play it a good amount of the time - in the very same "fast format", means most yours points are void anyways.
edit: I'm not disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing, I am disagreeing to tell you that you are wrong.
You are wrong and better players than you that i know would agree with me.
Mind unbound is not a bomb and never will be close to a "bomb". Honestly don't understand the people in this site at all. Sometimes you make good points, other times one person says something and you all agree with him without thinking for yourselves.
let me explain why mind unbound isn't good for those that aren't getting it.
#1. It costs 6 mana and double blue for a card that does not affect the board at all when it first comes into play. In a close match this could be one of the worst cards in your hand.
#2. This formats fast. 6 mana might not seem like alot but it is, especially when you are playing 6 for something that has zero effect until the next turn.
#3. Early game it sits in your hand doing nothing, late game there's a good chance it will mill you if the boards stalled and your opponent can wait it out.
It seems people on this site like to disagree for the sake of disagreeing, its a mediocre card at best.
As far as the mill, id still be apprehensive to mill myself too much, especially if the opponent is playing blue.
I like all the remove creature in graveyard guys, but you can't play too many of them.
6/9 trampler looks really fun to play especially considering its blue.
To be fair i almost think they shoulda made a 7/10 green guy lol
Yes i think this is pretty much the point i was trying to make, great post!
Its under drafted because its the weakest color. Serra Angel is in there with the top 3 uncommons, mind control and fireball.
I dont think its a tough pick at all.
Skill makes you not get mana flooded?
I completely disagree.
At least with flashback if you get mana flooded you still have stuff to play and the games not over.
Because most the time its just play creatures and swing while using all your removal to zerg them down.
If you are playing control you have to make harder decisions, do you doomblade the 3/3 cant be blocked by two creatures or do you guess that he has something bigger and hold it.
Yes i actually watch both those guys, Ochoa seems to get alot of flack but hes one of the best limited players. It just shows that luck is always a factor.
Also i noticed that Ochoa is really wary to get into green which i agree with.
See you didnt actually read what i said. 3 of a good one drop in any deck, even BETTER when im running overrun and 2 of the bloodthirst lifelink vampire.
I was running green/black, my 4th week running green since i always get pushed into it. My deck was solid though, 2 doomblades, 2 wring flesh, 2 acidic slimes, primieval titan, gravedigger, 3 of the 1/1 unblockable which enabled my 2/2 lifelink bloodthirst 2 vampire. Also had the spider that kills flyers, i felt i definitely should have won.
I had 17 land and a rampant growth as well.
You are wrong and better players than you that i know would agree with me.
Mind unbound is not a bomb and never will be close to a "bomb". Honestly don't understand the people in this site at all. Sometimes you make good points, other times one person says something and you all agree with him without thinking for yourselves.
#1. It costs 6 mana and double blue for a card that does not affect the board at all when it first comes into play. In a close match this could be one of the worst cards in your hand.
#2. This formats fast. 6 mana might not seem like alot but it is, especially when you are playing 6 for something that has zero effect until the next turn.
#3. Early game it sits in your hand doing nothing, late game there's a good chance it will mill you if the boards stalled and your opponent can wait it out.
It seems people on this site like to disagree for the sake of disagreeing, its a mediocre card at best.