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  • posted a message on Do you enjoy modern right now?
    Agreed, if happenings outside playing the game affecting attendance is your fundamental point, then yes, there are a lot of factors that are frankly impossible to account for.

    But using the GGT banning to 'reinforce' your fundamental point is disingenuous at best.

    Adding to that, I think 2017/2018 with Modern Masters 3 and fetchland reprints has made Modern far more accessible, which is a great thing, and a huge factor in bringing players in to the format.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Do you enjoy modern right now?
    Quote from xBattleSpawnx »
    Quote from Depian »
    Quote from Ym1r »
    If people bring in arguments of how there are many players who have "completely been driven out of the format", then these people might as well come with some data to back this up, because just claiming it is not enough.


    Again, for the people in THIS forum, the result is rather clear. Attendance in events has not dropped as well, so I am not sure where this narrative is coming from, but I guess personal experience is a strong feeling.
    This is a metric we can objectively measure and is well documented. I just took the numbers from season 2014-2015 onwards, excluded team events and the results seem to indicate that the average attendance for Modern GPs is going down in the last seasons.

    If we are going to use this data as an indicative of how much people enjoy the format, attendance numbers would reinforce the idea that people are being driven out of the format.


    Doesn't this have a bit of a correlation doesn't equal causation problem? Changes in incentives, prize payouts, number of modern GPs, CFB getting a monopoly on event hosting, etc could all attribute to a decline in attendance.

    To kind of reinforce my point, Golgari Grave Troll was banned January 9th 2017 and the "result" was an 18% drop in GP attendance from the previous year Wink


    If you're assuming that GGT was banned at the start of 2017, therefore resulting in attendance drop of 18% for the year Jan 2017 - Jan 2018, then you would be wrong.

    Depian mentioned that he counted by seasons and not the actual year. Seasons don't start in Jan and end in Dec. 2016-2017 season started on 13th August 2016 and ended on 30th July 2017. The banning happened right smack in the middle of that particular season. The attendance drop in the next season (2017-2018)can't be attributed to the banning.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    I'm quite surprised UR Phoenix actually hit 55% win rate vs the rest of the field. I thought it might have been less considering the law of large numbers.

    Update to 1 of my previous posts (to account for places 16-32 @ Bilbao):

    Tampa: 19.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so 31.25% of top 32 (4 in top 8) - Top 32 at 33 points. 33 points players continue until 49th place.
    Bilbao: 22.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so also 31.25% of top 32 (2 in top 8) - Top 32 is a very clean cut off at 36 points for this event.

    So based on these 2, I'd say UR Phoenix over-performed in conversion to top places relative to share of day 2.

    Counted from: https://www.channelfireball.com/the-9th-16th-place-decklists-of-grand-prix-bilbao/
    and https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRNjbzrDeyG6-NV3rvYNuyhQTCF1y9h52ufa-n9gZWP-COji9A_d0C_VMvv8WwDOLILuG79ZcV1adan/pubhtml?gid=1324917569&single=true
    and https://www.channelfireball.com/grand-prix-tampa-9-32-decklists/


    While UR Phoenix had very strong Day 2 to Top 32 conversion, it does make sense that it was a few places away from being the best performing deck vs the field considering the law of large numbers and how it had something like triple the play rate of the next most popular deck.

    If we were to refer to Karsten's article for matches played for UR Phoenix and the 4 decks that had better win-rate in non-mirrors:

    UR Phoenix 274 - 55.5%
    Whir prison 66 - 66.7%
    Dredge 85 - 60%
    UW Control 61 - 59%
    Affinity 72 - 55.6%

    UR Phoenix played a total of 274 matches while the deck with best win-rate, whir prison only played 66.
    UR Phoenix played over 4x the amount of matches than Whir prison.
    The 4 decks that had a better win-rate than UR Phoenix combine for a total of 284 matches played.

    Because of this huge disparity in numbers, I'm not sure if it's fair to say UR Phoenix is 5th best deck because of its overall non-mirror win-rate. After all, it did over-perform in Day 2 to top 32 conversions

    Do any of you think Whir prison could sustain a win rate anywhere near 66% or even 60% if it was played 4 times as much? I highly doubt it.

    Edit:
    Tobi Henke puts it into words better than me so I'll just quote him
    But when evaluating these numbers, we also have to take into account that a larger population gravitates to more average performances almost by default. The main stream usually finds itself somewhere in the middle.


    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Do you enjoy modern right now?
    @gkourou Serious question. What is the logic behind why you think Phoenix is overrated?

    If it's just being carried by a wave of popularity, logically, there would be higher representation but lower conversion, but this is not the case.

    Tampa: 19.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so 31.25% of top 32 (4 in top 8)
    Bilbao: 22.5% Day 2 share, 5 UR Phoenix in top 16 so also 31.25% of top 16 (2 in top 8)

    Based on these 2, UR Phoenix over-performed in conversion to top places relative to share of day 2.

    What is the reasoning behind claiming that a deck which over-performed, is actually overrated?
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Phoenix being more accessible sounds like bad news for anyone who doesn't yet own surgicals.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from Stille_Nacht »
    Has Gokurou ever asserted that modern is the best it's ever been in relation to the current phoenix meta? I keep seeing Renegade Rallier mention it over and over in response to posts that don't contain the statement.


    Quote from gkourou »
    I genuinely think Modern is the best it has ever been.

    Reason? One can really take a Tier 1 standard deck (UR Drakes), tweak it, and have a Tier 1 Modern deck!


    Quote from gkourou »

    They didn't say that UWx are second and third as of now. They spoke of a specific timeframe and they were right in that one.
    Also, yes, I believe Modern is one of the best Modern formats we have ever seen at the moment, so yeah, I am happy with that statement of theirs(that everything is fine for now, no changes are needed and that Modern will hopefully self regulate itself), because I 100% agree.



    Edit:
    Gonna call BS on this

    Quote from gkourou »
    My opinion is still that it's hugely over represented as a deck, and even if it's too consistent, it's not that good, so I guess I am in line with all of those people.


    Tampa: 19.5% Day 2 share, 10 UR Phoenix in top 32 so 31.25% of top 32 (4 in top 8)
    Bilbao: 22.5% Day 2 share, 5 UR Phoenix in top 16 so also 31.25% of top 16 (2 in top 8)

    So based on these 2, I'd say UR Phoenix over-performed in conversion to top places relative to share of day 2.

    Counted from: https://www.channelfireball.com/the-9th-16th-place-decklists-of-grand-prix-bilbao/
    and https://www.channelfireball.com/grand-prix-tampa-9-32-decklists/

    A deck that's highly popular but "not that good" as you claim won't convert like this into top 32/16.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)


    Quote from gkourou »
    TLDR2: I won't be hyperbolic saying this is Eldrazi winter, because people that are saying that probably want Twin back, so their agenda is to sell the format as horribly bad and scream for a Twin unban. They don't even believe this theirselves.



    I'll flip that statement right back at you. Phoenix in less than half a year has put up better results and higher play-rate than Twin in the entire of 2015. You call it an agenda but they're justified to want twin back in the face of the weekend's results.

    You say they have an agenda, but what about yourself.

    Over 20% play rate over 2 GPs. 6 out of 16 top 8 spots in 2 GPs.

    Twin's stats are rookie numbers compared to this and yet here you are defending it and deriding twin players.

    Yeah they might be selling the format horribly, but that's no different from you sticking your fingers in your ears and yelling that this is the best Modern has ever been.

    If you honestly believe this is the best Modern has ever been, than you're either deluded or a hypocrite.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Being better than eldrazi winter is a low bar.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Legend has it that gkourou will still tell you modern is the best it’s ever been.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    From twitter:

    #MTGBilbao Semifinal results:

    2010 World Champion Guillaume Matignon defeats Thomas Rasmussen in an Izzet Phoenix mirror

    Now six-time GP Top 8 competitor Louis-Samuel Deltour (Whir Prison) triumphs over Joseba Garcia (Dredge).

    EDIT: Matignon on UR Phoenix takes down Bilbao
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Adding on to the GP breakdowns.

    Day 2 Meta for SCG as follows:

    Izzet Phoenix – 19
    Dredge – 9
    Humans – 8
    Mono-Green Tron – 6
    Azorius Control – 4
    Grixis Death’s Shadow – 4
    Burn – 4
    Amulet Titan – 3
    Affinity – 3
    Golgari Midrange – 3
    Whir Prison – 2
    Jund Death’s Shadow – 2
    Hollow+One – 2
    Colorless Eldrazi – 2
    Titan Shift – 2
    Infect – 1
    Storm – 1
    Bant Spirits – 1
    Mono-Red Phoenix – 1
    Counters Company – 1
    Ad+Nauseam – 1
    Faeries – 1
    Blue Moon – 1
    Four-Color Death’s Shadow – 1
    Four-Color Vannifar – 1
    Sultai Reclamation – 1
    Selesnya Taxes – 1
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Phoenix is putting up competitive numbers Twin could only dream of.


    Toxic twin players derailing the thread with their agenda.

    Modern is the best it's ever been.

    edit: /s if that wasn't obvious.

    I was referring to something exremely specific. In addition to the ridiculous Day 2 numbers that Twin never saw, the "competitive diversity" claim is pretty strong. If Twin is the bar, Phoenix is breaking it. If Phoenix isn't breaking it, then Twin needs to come back. Plain and simple.

    Since Printing Phoenix on 10/5/18
    Total GPs: 6
    Total copies of Phoenix in T8: 9
    Avg copies per GP: 1.5 (2, 2*, 2, 1*, 2, 0) *Win
    Winners: 2* (Don't know Bilbao results yet)

    Twin in all of 2015
    Total GPs: 8
    Total copies of Twin in T8: 10
    Avg copies per GP: 1.25 (3*, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1*, 0) *Win
    Winners: 2 (vastly different builds, nearly a year apart)


    Yup, agreed completely. Yet there are people telling the twin guys they're obsessed and have an agenda. Every reason cited for a twin ban can be applied wholesale for UR phoenix.

    Does UR Phoenix put up the numbers? Resounding yes for both top 8 performance and play rate.
    Diversity among blue decks? Well GDS, UW, U-moon and UWR combined took 10% less than UR Phoenix this time round.

    UR Phoenix being allowed to continue to exist in its current form when twin remains banned is an joke.

    1 more GP like this and faithless looting 100% needs to go.

    EDIT: FROM CFB, DAY 2 Meta at GP Tampa

    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Quote from cfusionpm »
    Phoenix is putting up competitive numbers Twin could only dream of.


    Toxic twin players derailing the thread with their agenda.

    Modern is the best it's ever been.

    edit: /s if that wasn't obvious.
    Infraction issued for flaming. --CavalryWolfPack
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Good news for Phoenix players. Only 2 in the top 8 and overshadowed by Dredge. These decks are obviously totally fine and not a problem.

    Seriously. Excuses about players not adapting to the format simply cannot be made anymore. Graveyard decks have been dominating for a good few months now. Nobody is skimping on GY hate anymore, so much so that Surgical Extraction is ridiculously expensive.

    Don't wanna hear anymore crap about players not being willing to adapt. At this point its clearly a power-level problem.

    Edit: Here are the top 8 from the prev GP for comparison

    Titanshift
    Dredge x2
    Izzet Phoenix x2
    Harden Scales x2
    Grixis Shadow
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)
    Lol, more than the next 3 combined.

    But we'll still have to see how it converts into top 32 before making any conclusions.
    Posted in: Modern
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