What you guys are also failing to mention in regards to SFM is its price was also inflated because of rise of the eldrazi being a stand alone draft set cutting off worldwake from draft and making the cards in that set not opened as much and worth more. Snapcaster Mage is in the first set which is heavily opened, draft format isn't weird as far as we know and Snapcaster Mage isn't a walker or a tutor. I can see him hangng around about $8-10 if his demand stays as high as his current popularity.
Your point for supply is huge, and with Innistrad being the first set and no indications that it won't be a traditional draft format, there should be a much better supply for Snapcaster. That said, I think a rare with potential in all constructed formats, Vintage to Block, can easily get to $15-20 if it exists in a metagame defining deck in either Legacy or Standard.
Stromkrik Noble will see play in RDW if in nothing else. Imagine this line of play. Turn one Noble. Ur opponent plays land and passes/doesn't play a creature. Turn two u attack making Noble a 2/2 and play another creature Stormblood or Wardriver. Ur opponent likely drops a creature or does nothing again. U swing in for 5 and get a 3/3. If your opponent dropped a creature u can burn it and if they just filtered draws or left up counter mana ur fine. The only good play would be creature removal in which case this is better than Goblin Guide since ur not giving them free land before it dies
Except in the first 3 turns you've done 3 less damage than GG and you're assuming your opponent is doing nothing.
You do realize those cards u listed are Legacy or Modern playables if you arguement against him is that he won't be used in a Legacy Zoo deck I don't no how to please u.
This card is great for a fast opening. No he isn't Goblin Guide but after one or two attacks he can really start to grow and be a serious problem for slower decks if they can't find removal or certain creature based decks if they let him get too big
3 of those cards were also in Standard in the last year, sure they're eternal format playable but that doesn't mean they haven't existed in smaller formats at some time. How is this guy better than a card that is already barely played, Furnace Scamp. If Scamp gets in once, it does 4 damage. This guy does 1, then 3 damage before finally netting 6 by turn 4. That is nowhere near fast enough over the first 3 turns especially. Sure it's good if you can keep it unchecked, but it is easily removed and again, very slow.
A Tempered Steel deck can block it, remove it, or simply ignore it and outrace you. Birthing Pod decks have plenty of defensive creatures and go way bigger. It's hard to know what control decks will look like, but there are plenty of efficient removal spells and sweepers to deal with him. I guess you can argue he's good against Puresteel decks...
As I added to my post later, we could get some other Vampires or Mono-Red cards that play very well with him and make him much better. But thinking of him solely with the cards we know will exist in Standard come October, this is hardly an impressive card.
Stormkirk is just....not special. If he had haste it'd be worth talking about, but I just don't see how he is going to be a force as a loving Mono-red player. It's not even close to comparable in power level to the likes of Goblin Guide, Steppe Lynx, Wild Nacatl or even Kird Ape. It's slow, not that powerful, not that evasive, nets no value if it dies upon playing it and is a terrible top deck. While it's hard to know what cards will be played with him in Standard, what decks can't deal with him?
Obviously there is no true way to evaluate him until the rest of Innistrad is released, and Wizards wouldn't seemingly give the Top Decks column a non-Constructed playable card. But just from first impressions, this card seems like it would need a major powering down of the format to be good in Mono-Red, a new type of Vampire deck to abuse him, or a huge presence of humans in creature decks.
The Jekyll card is much better than it seems when you stop and think about it. Merfolk Looter is an early pick card in most draft formats and this is a MUCH better version for one more mana. Prevents flood and lets you dig while giving you the option to get in for 5 if an opponent is tapped out. It also can play great defense if you need it to trade with one of their bigger guys at some point. If you guys really think he's bad by all means pass him to me all day....
Honestly, that depends what you want out of Magic. If you prefer official, 1v1 Magic, with sanctioned and competitive events (and not necessarily at the money-making level but even just at FNM or small events) than Modern is the clear pick. If you aren't the type that likes to play in constructed events, has a group of friends who plays and/or knows a LGS with a strong EDH/Commander playerbase, and you like multiplayer, than go for Commander.
Two things to consider as far as "investing" in either format goes. With Commander, the format is only as expensive or competitive as you want it to be. If you can't or don't want to drop hundreds into a deck, you don't have to. There are plenty of budget alternatives for more expensive cards in decks, and it is a singleton format where originality and good old fashioned fun are meant to shine; you should never feel obligated to get any one card to have fun or stand a chance to win games against friends.
As for Modern, right now there is a big debate and concern that prices are artificially high due to excitement for the new format and people not wanting to miss out on breakthrough cards or staple strategies. As a result, things like Shocklands and the better creatures in the format are all carrying very high price tags at the moment. I'm not saying all of these won't hold Dark Cnfidant in particular, but it is very possible that this is just a bubble and that after the Pro Tour once Modern is more played by the masses, prices will become more reasonable.
Obviously you test with proxies. However this change doesn't help anyone that does not have money to buy cards that is attending the pro tour.
If you're competitive enough to be qualifying for and playing in PT's, you should already have cards, be able to borrow them, or be committed to buy them. It's not FNM or some regional 5k, it's one of the big 4 events of the year and if you can't find a way to buy or borrow cards for one tournament, why are you playing tournament magic at the highest level anyway?
I gave a version very similar to yours in the OP's a try on MWS. Main changes were adding a land, cutting the Doom Blade and Unmake for some Kitchen Finks and switching the Elspeth's you ran. I really enjoyed playing the deck and it would be great in a format like Extended but I don't think it's competitively viable in Modern. It's just too fair to not be obscenely fast or disruptive. The combo decks just do too much. And against the very fast decks the manabase and Bitterblossom (Bob too if you try him) lose you a lot of life.
I wouldn't say completely give up on the deck, especially because it really is a lot of fun, but consistency and staying power don't mean much when combo decks eat you alive on turns 3-4 , when there are beatdown decks that are bigger and/or faster and when there are Fish decks that counter your important stuff and put you on a reasonable clock. As bad as it sounds, the best way I can think of to improve the deck would be to add a lot more disruption and a Mystic package.
As far as improvements to the deck as it exists now, I confess I only tried Elspeth 1.0 but I can't see how Tirel is better, sure 3 tokens is much nicer but 1 mana is absolutely huge, not to mention that Knight-Errant is much harder to kill and can force through the last bit of damage in some situations. I will give Tirel a try because I do believe it is a solid card with some potential somewhere, but Modern doesn't seem like that place. As for the Finks over the removal spells, Finks is a threat, gains you a good amount of life against aggro decks, can trade for their creatures, and is great with Ajani.
The only major card I thought of I haven't seen suggested is Timely Reinforcements in the SB. It seems strange to suggest out of a token deck but it seems very good against other creature decks. The manabase, bitterblossom and their attacks make the lifegain easy to get and the deck currently has only one 1-2 drop creature so it isn't hard to drop a Turn 3 Reinforcements for full value.
By far the most interesting tidbit that I saw from the announcement hasn't been touched on yet, that Rosewater led the design of this set after having led Innistrad. Not sure what to make of it and knowing Maro we'll prolly get teased with a part answer when Innistrad comes out and won't get a real answer till January :/
Yeah that's why I went for U/W, I think it's better than UB since Path is as good as any black removal and SFM is as good or better than Confidant. That and the Merfolk duals made it my splash of choice
I've been playing with this myself today, haven't gotten far enough along in testing to make too many assumptions but this is a rough 60 I'm trying right now, would like to generate some discussion on this because combining Stoneforge and Vial seems exceptionally powerful, not sure if more worthwhile than with a Faeries package but it's worth a try.
Unsure of a SB and much of the 60. The main things I'm wondering about are the 2nd Equipment after Batterskull, the counterspell suite, the land count and the SB. As far as the 2nd Equipment goes, it's mainly which Sword is best. I put in Fire and Ice for now because it is just great card advantage and could help against red decks or the mirror, but I would like to hear thoughts on which Sword seems best or if Batterskull is good enough on its own.
I feel like there isn't enough countermagic to really make the best use out of Aether Vial, Mystic and the Equipment package helps that but maybe some maindeck Mana Leak like the TS has.
The land count might be too greedy at 21 and a 22nd might be needed but I think it should be ok. SB cards would be some kind of artifact hate like Kataki, War's Wage, more counterspells like Negate, Mental Misstep or Mana Leak, graveyard hate like Relic of Progenitus, possibly some Meddling Mage for combo decks or similar.
Loosely defined, it's using your resources, cards and mana to your advantage to get the most value out of them and in some cases, set your opponent back on resources comparatively. The classic example is a card like Man O' War which gives you a reasonable body for 3 mana, while also making an opponent effectively waste a turn and several mana by bouncing his creature. It's much more than that and like I said, can effectively be any use of your resources which is more efficient than your opponent's. Here's an old article on it from the mothership
The three best cards for me are black, Child of Night, Sorin's Thirst and Consume Spirit. Stonehorn Dignitary is a possibility for a more controlling deck and is less color committing than 2 of the black cards, which you need to be mostly black to make the best use of. I can see a card of any color from the first pack going in the next two picks so that isn't much help. As for the blue cards, Ice Cage is fairly easy to deal with and I can't ever seeing myself picking it high, Visions of Beyond would really only work in a mill deck of sorts, had our first pick been the new Jace it would be an interesting thought. The only other option I think is Greatsword but it's really slow and clunky, Warlord's Axe rarely made the cut in my M11 decks and is comparable.
I would probably take the Dignitary since I don't want to commit heavy to black for 2 cards which are good but not great, and taking Child of Night leaves the other black cards as among the next 2 or 3 picks, leading to a bad pack 2 anyway. Child is also not as good in a slower deck. U/W is always a reasonable archetype so a horned turtle that buys you a turn seems reasonable for a more controlling deck that is possible due to Mind Control being our first pick.
I think that Standard is getting weaker. The best way to judge that is to look at the block decks from the last several formats. The Jund format of Shards seemed more powerful than the RUG/Eldrazi Zendikar format which seemed stronger than the WW, Big Red format.
Why wouldn't they? They'll get the people who absolutely NEED to have the new cards they want in their hands once the set releases to buy, as well as those that think they see the next big thing coming after Jace 2.0. But seeing as every other PW since has only dropped from its preorder price, they are keeping themselves safe by setting the price to get enough biters before dropping the price and selling to those with more sense. Don't blame businesses trying to make money, blame those willing to overpay to get cards in their hands earlier.
Your point for supply is huge, and with Innistrad being the first set and no indications that it won't be a traditional draft format, there should be a much better supply for Snapcaster. That said, I think a rare with potential in all constructed formats, Vintage to Block, can easily get to $15-20 if it exists in a metagame defining deck in either Legacy or Standard.
Except in the first 3 turns you've done 3 less damage than GG and you're assuming your opponent is doing nothing.
3 of those cards were also in Standard in the last year, sure they're eternal format playable but that doesn't mean they haven't existed in smaller formats at some time. How is this guy better than a card that is already barely played, Furnace Scamp. If Scamp gets in once, it does 4 damage. This guy does 1, then 3 damage before finally netting 6 by turn 4. That is nowhere near fast enough over the first 3 turns especially. Sure it's good if you can keep it unchecked, but it is easily removed and again, very slow.
A Tempered Steel deck can block it, remove it, or simply ignore it and outrace you. Birthing Pod decks have plenty of defensive creatures and go way bigger. It's hard to know what control decks will look like, but there are plenty of efficient removal spells and sweepers to deal with him. I guess you can argue he's good against Puresteel decks...
As I added to my post later, we could get some other Vampires or Mono-Red cards that play very well with him and make him much better. But thinking of him solely with the cards we know will exist in Standard come October, this is hardly an impressive card.
Obviously there is no true way to evaluate him until the rest of Innistrad is released, and Wizards wouldn't seemingly give the Top Decks column a non-Constructed playable card. But just from first impressions, this card seems like it would need a major powering down of the format to be good in Mono-Red, a new type of Vampire deck to abuse him, or a huge presence of humans in creature decks.
Two things to consider as far as "investing" in either format goes. With Commander, the format is only as expensive or competitive as you want it to be. If you can't or don't want to drop hundreds into a deck, you don't have to. There are plenty of budget alternatives for more expensive cards in decks, and it is a singleton format where originality and good old fashioned fun are meant to shine; you should never feel obligated to get any one card to have fun or stand a chance to win games against friends.
As for Modern, right now there is a big debate and concern that prices are artificially high due to excitement for the new format and people not wanting to miss out on breakthrough cards or staple strategies. As a result, things like Shocklands and the better creatures in the format are all carrying very high price tags at the moment. I'm not saying all of these won't hold Dark Cnfidant in particular, but it is very possible that this is just a bubble and that after the Pro Tour once Modern is more played by the masses, prices will become more reasonable.
If you're competitive enough to be qualifying for and playing in PT's, you should already have cards, be able to borrow them, or be committed to buy them. It's not FNM or some regional 5k, it's one of the big 4 events of the year and if you can't find a way to buy or borrow cards for one tournament, why are you playing tournament magic at the highest level anyway?
I wouldn't say completely give up on the deck, especially because it really is a lot of fun, but consistency and staying power don't mean much when combo decks eat you alive on turns 3-4 , when there are beatdown decks that are bigger and/or faster and when there are Fish decks that counter your important stuff and put you on a reasonable clock. As bad as it sounds, the best way I can think of to improve the deck would be to add a lot more disruption and a Mystic package.
As far as improvements to the deck as it exists now, I confess I only tried Elspeth 1.0 but I can't see how Tirel is better, sure 3 tokens is much nicer but 1 mana is absolutely huge, not to mention that Knight-Errant is much harder to kill and can force through the last bit of damage in some situations. I will give Tirel a try because I do believe it is a solid card with some potential somewhere, but Modern doesn't seem like that place. As for the Finks over the removal spells, Finks is a threat, gains you a good amount of life against aggro decks, can trade for their creatures, and is great with Ajani.
The only major card I thought of I haven't seen suggested is Timely Reinforcements in the SB. It seems strange to suggest out of a token deck but it seems very good against other creature decks. The manabase, bitterblossom and their attacks make the lifegain easy to get and the deck currently has only one 1-2 drop creature so it isn't hard to drop a Turn 3 Reinforcements for full value.
4x Stoneforge Mystic
4x Lord of Atlantis
3x Cursecatcher
4x Silvergill Adept
4x Coralhelm Commander
4x Merrow Reejerey
4x Cryptic Command
4x Aether Vial
4x Path to Exile
2x Spell Pierce
1x Sword of Fire and Ice
1x Batterskull
4x Mutavault
4x Hallowed Fountain
4x Wanderwine Hub
4x Island
3x Misty Rainforest
2x Scalding Tarn
Unsure of a SB and much of the 60. The main things I'm wondering about are the 2nd Equipment after Batterskull, the counterspell suite, the land count and the SB. As far as the 2nd Equipment goes, it's mainly which Sword is best. I put in Fire and Ice for now because it is just great card advantage and could help against red decks or the mirror, but I would like to hear thoughts on which Sword seems best or if Batterskull is good enough on its own.
Other cards I've considered are Kira, Great Glass Spinner, Sygg, River Guide and Sower of Temptation but I like the creature count where it is right now. They all are options for the SB.
I feel like there isn't enough countermagic to really make the best use out of Aether Vial, Mystic and the Equipment package helps that but maybe some maindeck Mana Leak like the TS has.
The land count might be too greedy at 21 and a 22nd might be needed but I think it should be ok. SB cards would be some kind of artifact hate like Kataki, War's Wage, more counterspells like Negate, Mental Misstep or Mana Leak, graveyard hate like Relic of Progenitus, possibly some Meddling Mage for combo decks or similar.
Thoughts?
http://www.wizards.com/magic/magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtgcom/academy/12
I would probably take the Dignitary since I don't want to commit heavy to black for 2 cards which are good but not great, and taking Child of Night leaves the other black cards as among the next 2 or 3 picks, leading to a bad pack 2 anyway. Child is also not as good in a slower deck. U/W is always a reasonable archetype so a horned turtle that buys you a turn seems reasonable for a more controlling deck that is possible due to Mind Control being our first pick.