Lesson learned, people.
Don't forget your triggers!
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- alpinefroggy
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Mar 1, 20151
Lil_Bolas posted a message on SCG Open Baltimore 2/29-3/1This SCG meta looks pretty healthy.Posted in: Modern -
Feb 23, 20152
TheNoob posted a message on Current Modern Banlist Discussion (1/19/2015 - 7/13/2015)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from Pistallion »Quote from bocephus »Quote from Pistallion »Every combo deck is like that. Doesnt mean it should be banned
...and every other combo deck has been pulled back into the acceptable guidelines of the format. I have said multiple times it will come down to the consistency of Amulet going off prior to turn 4. I have also said scooping should not be considered going off early. I dont think it will get hit unless it can go off prior to turn 4 much more regularly then we have seen on camera.
Well then Splinter Twin is the opressive deck if we want to go stricktly by the turn 4 rule. Like I asked before, why even play these other combo decks if they cant threaten win pre turn 3 win when we can just go safe and play Splinter Twin?
Lets Ban Splinter Twin and lets ban summer Bloom! Lets just keep banning decks till we have a Standard-esque metagame
THIS ^
If we use Twin as a guide of Risk vs Reward for Combo decks, than I feel like Amulet Bloom is in line with that.
It is more explosive than Twin but much less consistent than Twin. It can transform into a different type of deck through sideboarding (the current Thrag, Sigarda, Hornet Queen sideboard is an attempt to morph into a rampy/midrange deck vs Twin more control-ish style sideboard). It has the potential to win out of nowhere but can also grind out a game.
Banning Amulet Bloom just reinforces a really poor trend in Modern; if anything finally gets some footing to compete against the top tier, it gets banned into non-existance. Why invest in the format if everytime you learn a deck (that isnt GBx) well enough to start doing well with it, its gone.
It's really sad, I have been a huge defender of Modern since Jund w DRS was crushing the format. But even I am losing my will to defend it and am just about ready to cash out. I know no one cares, but its a sad day when die-hard Modern players are getting fed up with the format and WotC's inability to figure out/adapt to what the playerbase is doing. -
Feb 23, 2015
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sss123 posted a message on Current Modern Banlist Discussion (1/19/2015 - 7/13/2015)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from AvalonAurora »My new ban predictions:
Possibly Banned: Splinter Twin (or Deceiver Exarch and Village Bell-Ringer to make more vulnerable to Volcanic Fallout), Ravnica Karoo lands (Golgari Rot Farm+company), Simian Spirit Guide, Hive Mind, something from BGx (probably Abrupt Decay and Inquisition of Kozilek, since that would probably open up the meta the most for other kinds of decks to appear), Tarmogoyf (not a likely one, but given the amount of decks he gets splashed in, I wouldn't discount him as a possible ban target)
Possibly Unbanned: Ancestral Vision
Simian Spirit Guide, while inconsistent, does nothing but enable degenerate early plays that help break the turn 4 rule more consistently in decks that can.
Twin looks like it's getting results sufficient to make WotC strongly consider a ban to hit the deck, I feel like either Twin itself will slow things down (replaced by Kiki), or they'll make it less consistent and more vulnerable to disruption/hate by banning exarch and bell-ringer, the primary low cmc high toughness twin target choices. Obviously in the case of exarch/bell-ringer ban, they can be replaced by Midnight Guard and Breaching Hippocamp to fill out other options for the combo that are less useful for other things in the deck.
Amulet Bloom looks like it breaks the turn 4 rule consistently enough to get hit with bans, the most likely ones I see are the spirit guide mentioned above, the Ravnica Karoo lands, which don't see much play in other decks but would hit this one relatively hard, and Hive Mind, one of the deck's faster and more powerful win-cons. I feel like trying to aim for Summer Bloom or the Amulet of Vigor itself hits too much future options for other deck designs, and hitting Primeval Titan would both not be effective enough and hit too many other potential deck designs of the future.
I feel like BGx is dominating the midrange game too much, and hating out too many other decks. I think some of the most effective possible hits are Abrupt Decay and Inquisition of Kozilek, which would allow things like lower cmc artifacts and enchantments to become playable in the meta again, opening up other deck possibilities. Abrupt Decay in particular makes it so that BGx dominates the removal game to a near ridiculous degree, and it isn't like they won't still have Maelstrom Pulse as an option, but one that isn't so powerful it hates out tons of other decks. WUx Control would oddly be helped quite a bit by an Abrupt Decay ban, since it would enable Detention Sphere to be slightly more playable. These bans wouldn't help combo too much I think, since Duress would still be around, and there are sideboard instant speed low cmc options for artifact and enchantment removal, especially in green. Hopefully no longer having the clearly best removal suite in the format would mean other midrange decks could compete for meta share there.
Tarmogoyf is problematic enough in BGx, but is being splashed in all sorts of other decks these days. It's just too good too easily at all stages of the game for a 2 drop that isn't as vulnerable to hate as it looks like at first glance due to the *+1 toughness rather than something like */* power and toughness. Additionally, I feel like the hate in the meta against Tarmogoyf is hitting levels of graveyard hate that might actually be indirectly hating graveyard decks out of higher slots in the meta than they currently possess. Being as cheap (mana investment wise, not actual $)) and ridiculously powerful and splashable as it is, Goyf presents a troublesome meta presence that cuts down on deck diversity. The main issue is that he's likely to cause a far larger player rebellion than other potential bans due to his high price (and thus player investments) and his printing in the first Modern Masters giving people the impression that WotC thinks he is safe from bans.
Ancestral is one of their best options to help the struggling control, at least in terms of banned list related stuff, has relatively low odds of helping combo so much it is a problem, and the lack of strong cascade options in the format that fit well with it probably mean it can't be cheated through as effectively.
I feel like Sword of the Meek and Bloodbraid Elf are rather low-odds targets for WotC to choose for unbans, although far from impossible, I don't think they are likely enough to include in my main predictions.
Your ban prediction is horrible. Why we need to have a ban list being longer and longer?
This is not health at all to maintain the META using the ban hammer, because there is always a tier-1 deck existing.
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Because then literally anything that becomes strong is on the chopping block. Which means affinity is probably justified if twin is as well.
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Bans I said nothing but I could see summer bloom go and maybe esnaring bridge. Twin, as much as I love it could also be on the block. The problem is that I dont see bans as doing anything productive whatsoever. Nothing is a problem. Things are annoying but they arent huge problems.
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Keranos is the nuts without junk running around. Against a clear board, slamming it when you can is often just game over. I have noticed this against jund, grixis delver and twin, and almost any fair grindy deck. Your counterspells become cards to keep you alive and your gameplan goes full control. Whether I'd play 2? No not quute. Grixis control has tools like an angler or cryptic to fight it ok but you really need to have thrun to fight that matchup at all really.
Thagtusk is just value. Its appeal is catching you up and still going over the top. Boucning it with cryptic is fun and its the kind of card that batterskull used to be. This makes it better than keranos a lot of the time because it can take a while for the god to pull its wheight.
wurmcoil being six is rough although going up to that does win games against nonwhite decks. surrak is not that great because hes just a big dude after he comes down.
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oh stop whining
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Well I am a twin player so admitantly biased but wizards just has this ongoing problem of banning and banning and not making the problem any better. They ban pod so the next two best decks pre khans in twin and bg came back and are the best. Now they both are ready for a ban as the format has gotten back to 20% one urx colored deck and 20% another bgx colored deck just like cruise delver and pod were this winter. What have they solved by not unbanning/printing more cards to try and balance the format? Not much can be done at this point to not have the cycle continue. Thats why I can concludely say that if they ban twin at this next announcement they will have alienated me from the format and I will leave modern for legacy where my deck has some semblance of actual constancy
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Exactly, I love my twin deck and even though I could more than easily just choose a new deck with all my urx staples the fact wizards just keeps banning things when the problem probably isn't cards in the format it's cards that aren't in the format. I want to continue to enjoy my favorite deck and not have to be worried it will get the ban hammer the instant it does well just like all the decks previously that got the ax
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on the topic of the gp rather than ban discussion the junk vs twin game 1 was so close and junk was on a mull to 5, just shows how lopsided that matchup can be sometimes
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