Yeah. Though in fairness, if I had figured out what I figured out on the last Day (that the two-named people that claimed were auto-town), that would have saved us a lot of trouble.
Sorry but that's a bad premisse. We know this to be true a posteriori, but Arim had posted somewhere why this reasoning has a hole. Scum could have noticed only town had two-names and mimicked one or two to muddy the waters.
Yep. Although I had the ulterior motive of wanting to prevent players I knew to be town from getting cleared, my argument was sound. Had my particular combination of names not been irreconcilable (short of some explanation involving plastic surgery), I could have claimed both my names just as safely as the second and third townies did.
Funny story - that was the original plan we made with ChickenFish. He would claim the one-shot investigation and leave the doctor claim for Eron. Then pinkfloyd replaced in and decided to counterclaim Eron after all. I was initially super pissed at him for disrupting the plan we'd agreed upon, but I cooled off a bit once it became apparent that he had made his own position unassailable and ensured that DRey would follow Eron to the gallows.
Honestly, the only play I made that I feel exceptionally proud of was correctly deducing ced's role and offing him before he could do anything with it. My play during the day was too passive, especially on day 2. I failed to create a viable alternative to the Eron wagon, so him getting forced to claim was only a matter of time. I also took much too long to stake out a clear position with regards to Eron, which I eventually got correctly called on.
If there hadn't been so many townies face planting and letting the scum score mislynches with completely legitimate cases, I might have ended up in a lot more trouble. As it was, the only angle I had to push that was totally at odds with what I would argue as town was pushing for DRey to be lynched without getting an extra day to prove his claim. As town, I would absolutely have argued for a No Lynch there, even though I still would have thought DRey was scum based on his defense of Eron and subsequent backpedaling on the previous day.
It seemed like the reaction to my claim from the spectator forum was WTF are you doing you silly person, so I did actually want to touch on that briefly. Going into day 4, I expected to have to fight for my life immediately based on DRey's condemnation of me. In that situation, rather than make a safe play that wouldn't gain me anything, I decided to go for a hail Mary that could easily blow up in my face but which would give me a chance of diverting attention for long enough to get someone else lynched. I went for that mechanic because it would let me introduce additional uncertainty into in the town, since Void's role (and Iso's, as it turned out) looked plausibly neutral. A red herring, as Iso put it. I probably strayed a little too far onto the complex side, but I had long planned to go for math nerd angle as my false claim flavor and I couldn't think of anything better that wouldn't require me to commit to an ability or information that people could potentially disprove.
Imagine my surprise when the reaction to my claim was "Yeah, mkay, sounds good. Let's lynch Guardman or something." But hey, I wasn't gonna complain.
Edit: Also, it was only after the Guardman lynch went through that I realized I could have speedlynched Tezz at any point in the previous 24 hours. I saw Guardman's and Void's votes on him, but I forgot that he had voted himself at the start of the day so I thought he was at L-2. Since PF and I had no way to communicate in real time, I deemed it too risky to try to set up a two-man speedlynch with him.
Oh man, I forgot we had a spectator forum. There's a treasure trove of analysis and commentary I'd like to respond to, but I think it will have to wait until tomorrow. BBL.
I strongly suspect that ced is a miller cop. "In any case, I doubt my miller-ness will matter much this game" could very well hint that he thinks, based on his role, that there is no other full cop in the game to investigate him. So I was thinking, what's the point of making him a miller then? It would only have any game impact if there were someone out there with a one-shot investigation or something, OH WAIT
I plan to let the issue drop for today in the hopes that we can ice ced tonight.
Also, I'm saddened to see that you replaced "power levels in mafia" with "follow your dreams Guardman" in your sig. Ah well, I had my fifteen minutes of fame.
I think it's quite plausible. We have a group of a players with a distinguishing quality to their roles, so there's an obvious thematic group to base a bounty hunter-type role around.
I do see a few holes in the theory, though. First, if Arnnaria knew he had exactly one additional kill that could be used to help him achieve this win condition, why would he have fired it blindly at Pinky on day 1? Wouldn't the obvious move be to sit on the kill until some name claims go out and you can take a guaranteed shot?
And second, if Arnnaria/Void were neutral with a win condition to eliminate a specified group of people, it seems unlikely that there would have been so much confusion over whether the subset of players that their kill worked on was the scum or an arbitrary set of players. If it were the scum, Arn's/Void's win condition would effectively be "eliminate the scum," so there wouldn't be any reason for the role to be neutral rather than town. So it seems unlikely that the role could have been written in a way that left room for doubt, if it were a neutral bounty hunter sort of role.
I was about to say "How do you know we even had a cop," but then I remembered oh right, ced's miller claim, herp derp.
I'm skeptical about Bolly being the cop, because his role would be pretty ridiculously loaded if he had his lynch ability and investigations on top of that. And I do believe that he had the lynch ability he claimed, because it's an easily testable ability and he was chomping at the bit to use it. Also, Bolly strikes me as a very honest player, at least as town. When I grilled him over why he was so anxious to use his ability, he told me flat out that he had claimed the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about his role. I find it hard to believe he would have held back there, especially since it would significantly damage the credibility of a cop claim coming from him later.
I agree with your conclusion, though, if not the entirety of your reasoning. Guardman as scum is equally likely whether Pinky or Bolly was the cop. In particular, the night 2 kill on Pinky made a huge difference in alleviating the pressure on him.
Cyan and I don't mix well, I fear, but he's about the last player who would ever leap to my mind if the subject were "players who are insufficiently serious about trying to win the game."
Although I should add that Tezz's reaction is making me think twice about dismissing the two mafia + one neutral setup. I still haven't come up with a plausible role the neutral could have in that situation that makes the game balanced, though. The mafia would have to have super powerful roles to give them any chance of winning, and we haven't seen extra kills or anything that would seem to support that theory.
Come to think of it, has anyone even been roleblocked or anything? I don't recall anyone claiming such.
When my teammates caused me to lose the game, I had to loose my fury upon them.
Yep. Although I had the ulterior motive of wanting to prevent players I knew to be town from getting cleared, my argument was sound. Had my particular combination of names not been irreconcilable (short of some explanation involving plastic surgery), I could have claimed both my names just as safely as the second and third townies did.
If there hadn't been so many townies face planting and letting the scum score mislynches with completely legitimate cases, I might have ended up in a lot more trouble. As it was, the only angle I had to push that was totally at odds with what I would argue as town was pushing for DRey to be lynched without getting an extra day to prove his claim. As town, I would absolutely have argued for a No Lynch there, even though I still would have thought DRey was scum based on his defense of Eron and subsequent backpedaling on the previous day.
It seemed like the reaction to my claim from the spectator forum was WTF are you doing you silly person, so I did actually want to touch on that briefly. Going into day 4, I expected to have to fight for my life immediately based on DRey's condemnation of me. In that situation, rather than make a safe play that wouldn't gain me anything, I decided to go for a hail Mary that could easily blow up in my face but which would give me a chance of diverting attention for long enough to get someone else lynched. I went for that mechanic because it would let me introduce additional uncertainty into in the town, since Void's role (and Iso's, as it turned out) looked plausibly neutral. A red herring, as Iso put it. I probably strayed a little too far onto the complex side, but I had long planned to go for math nerd angle as my false claim flavor and I couldn't think of anything better that wouldn't require me to commit to an ability or information that people could potentially disprove.
Imagine my surprise when the reaction to my claim was "Yeah, mkay, sounds good. Let's lynch Guardman or something." But hey, I wasn't gonna complain.
Edit: Also, it was only after the Guardman lynch went through that I realized I could have speedlynched Tezz at any point in the previous 24 hours. I saw Guardman's and Void's votes on him, but I forgot that he had voted himself at the start of the day so I thought he was at L-2. Since PF and I had no way to communicate in real time, I deemed it too risky to try to set up a two-man speedlynch with him.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I AM SO DAMN SMUG RIGHT NOW
Good game, well played.
Also, I'm saddened to see that you replaced "power levels in mafia" with "follow your dreams Guardman" in your sig. Ah well, I had my fifteen minutes of fame.
I do see a few holes in the theory, though. First, if Arnnaria knew he had exactly one additional kill that could be used to help him achieve this win condition, why would he have fired it blindly at Pinky on day 1? Wouldn't the obvious move be to sit on the kill until some name claims go out and you can take a guaranteed shot?
And second, if Arnnaria/Void were neutral with a win condition to eliminate a specified group of people, it seems unlikely that there would have been so much confusion over whether the subset of players that their kill worked on was the scum or an arbitrary set of players. If it were the scum, Arn's/Void's win condition would effectively be "eliminate the scum," so there wouldn't be any reason for the role to be neutral rather than town. So it seems unlikely that the role could have been written in a way that left room for doubt, if it were a neutral bounty hunter sort of role.
I'm skeptical about Bolly being the cop, because his role would be pretty ridiculously loaded if he had his lynch ability and investigations on top of that. And I do believe that he had the lynch ability he claimed, because it's an easily testable ability and he was chomping at the bit to use it. Also, Bolly strikes me as a very honest player, at least as town. When I grilled him over why he was so anxious to use his ability, he told me flat out that he had claimed the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth about his role. I find it hard to believe he would have held back there, especially since it would significantly damage the credibility of a cop claim coming from him later.
I agree with your conclusion, though, if not the entirety of your reasoning. Guardman as scum is equally likely whether Pinky or Bolly was the cop. In particular, the night 2 kill on Pinky made a huge difference in alleviating the pressure on him.
I'd say this clinches it. Vote: Guardman.
Come to think of it, has anyone even been roleblocked or anything? I don't recall anyone claiming such.