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Magic Market Index for April 19, 2019
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    @Rhand: there are lots of posts that could be nods at things, ie lng’s post telling people to go ahead and decline it, now we have 7 no’s and no real data for 5.1 whatsoever.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    @Rhand: Gotcha. Do you see no ways that there could be secret communicating happening?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from Rumanshi »
    @shadow: If you look at rhands early game, he tentatively clears lngrr for seeping of some kind. Not sure if it's relevant
    I mean, if they’re buddies, it’s a decent way to forge a town read. Do you think it means anything?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from Rhand »
    @Shadow: I explained that in the post where I analysed the missions.
    You rules him out for 3.1 (the proposal you made) which was almost guaranteed not to go through cause of the guilty last claimed on you. So the yes vote there seems to me to be complete wine, do you disagree?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    Votecount 2.2
    I don’t want to be a queen, I want to be the queen.
    -Margaery Tyrell

    Sir Chris (3): Vaimes, LnGrrrR, XequalsY
    KamikazeArchon (2): Thousand_Winds, Vaimes*
    Killjoy (1): tomsloger
    Vaimes (1): Sir Chris

    Not Voting (10): Hunger, 1053nm, Cantripmancer, Shinichi, Gentleman Johnny, Rhand, KamikazeArchon, RE1031, Killjoy, Tubba Fett

    I will be assessing prods this afternoon (~5 hours from now).

    With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline is May 30 at 1700 MST.

    A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from LnGrrrR »
    You know, I thought about it last night, and I am fine with you guys cancelling this mission, if only because it gives us more time to work this out. Thoughts?
    Just...ugh. If you’re town, why say this out loud?
    If it had been me, I’d have quietly voted no and seen where the votes fell; analyzing votes here will be more difficult. Which, addnittedly, could be the goal.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    In a bitterly ironic twist of fate, the person least likely to be scum is Ruma...and he won’t get to propose another mission.

    Like I said before, I don’t think it’s wise of us to say in absolute terms whether we will yay or nay a mission ahead of time.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    @Rhand: Talk to me about last Cantrip Ruma and what makes it more likely than last Cantrip KJ

    I’m happy about the team composition, but I think Lng is still the most likely partner to a Cantrip/Rhand duo, which makes this not so great. Got some house work to do today but I should have some time to iso Lng this evening regardless.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    Effective immediately, xequalsy replaces Rodemy. Do not discuss replacements.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Mechanics stuff:
    Cantrip
    LnG
    Wisp
    Rhand
    KJ
    Shadow
    Ruma

    Mission proposals:

    1.1 (Cantrip)
    Proposed: Cantrip, Lng, Last
    Yes (3): Cantrip, LnG, Rhand
    No (3): KJ, Wisp, Shadow
    Not Voting (1): Riku

    1.2 (Lng)
    Proposed: KJ, LnG, Rhand
    Yes (6): Rhand, KJ, Wisp, Shadow, Riku, Cantrip
    Not voting (1): LnGrrrR
    Results: pass pass
    Dummy: KJ (pass)

    2.1 (Last)
    Proposed: KJ, Lng, Rhand, Last
    Yes (6): Cantrip, KJ, LnGrrrR, LW, Riku, Shadow
    No (1): Rhand
    Results: Pass Pass Pass
    Dummy: Rhand (fail)

    3.1 (Rhand)
    Proposed: Rhand, LnGrrrR, KJ, Cantrip
    Yes (2): LnGrrrR, Rhand
    No (5): Cantrip, KJ, LW, Riku, Shadow

    3.2 (KJ)
    Proposed: KJ, LnGrrrR, Wisp, Riku
    Yes (2): Cantrip, LnG
    No (5): KJ, Rhand, Riku, Shadow, Wisp

    3.3 (Shadow)
    Proposed: KJ, Last, LnG, Rhand
    Yes (5): KJ, LW, Rhand, Riku, Shadow
    No (1): Cantrip
    Not voting (1): LnG
    Results: Pass Pass Fail
    Dummy: Rhand (Pass)

    4.1 (Ruma)
    Proposed: Riku, Killjoy, Lngrrr, Cantrip and Wisp
    Yes (0):
    No(5): KJ, Last, LnGrrrR Rhand, Shadow
    Not Voting (2): Cantrip, Riku

    4.2 (Cantrip)
    Proposed: Cantrip, Wisp, LnG, Killjoy, Shadow
    Yes (6): Cantrip, LnGrrrR, Rhand, Riku, Shadow, Wisp
    No (0):
    Not Voting (1): KJ
    Results: Pass Pass Fail Fail
    Dummy: Shadow (Pass)
    Possible teams

    (Last/Rhand always contains >0 scum due to mission 2, all teams will include one of them)
    (Rhand/Ruma contains <2 scum due to mission 4, so no teams will include both)

    Rhand, Cantrip, KJ
    2.1 would require winking and nodding, 3.1 is a bit cheeky, 3.2 could check out if Rhand was no voting on principle and KJ got gunshy about his proposal.

    Rhand, Cantrip, Lng
    Same as above, 3.2 voting is more believable from Lng instead of KJ

    Rhand, Cantrip, Last
    Rhand, Last, KJ
    Rhand, Last, Lng
    Too many reasons why Rhand/Last don’t make sense as partners from even a mechanical standpoint. I think if they did something that...outlandish...then they got it past me.

    Rhand, Lng, KJ
    This would have required a significant amount of winking and nodding to even be plausible.

    Last, Cantrip, Ruma
    1.2 would be all town, 3.2 being risky would explain why all the no votes (granted, Cantrip yes voted. Could be a bluff)

    Last, Cantrip, KJ
    Checks out with everything except 3.3, which would have required some communicating.

    Last, Cantrip, Lng
    1.1 is funny, otherwise same as above

    Last, Lng, Ruma
    3.3 would need communication, and 4.2 would have been pretty risky.

    Last, Lng, KJ
    Too much communication needed in basically every quest, not a thing.

    Last, KJ, Ruma
    2.1 and 3.3 would need communication, 3.2 would have had all 3 scum. Nope.
    World likelihood

    Most likely:
    Rhand Cantrip Lng
    Last Cantrip KJ

    Possible:
    Rhand Cantrip KJ
    Last Cantrip Lng

    Unlikely but needs to be considered:
    Last Cantrip Ruma
    Last Lng Ruma
    This is all just mechanics at this point. I was gonna do this and then run them through behavioral analysis but this day was stupid busy. So I’m posting this and I’ll do more with it later.

    Quick takeaway, I don’t see any feasible world where Cantrip is not scum except mayyyybe last Lng Ruma, but I’m wrapping this up kinda quickly so it’s possible I missed something (don’t think so though). But as it stands, I want him as on of the two not on the mission. I think this game comes down to rhand vs last. I’m very curious to see how people vote, and I sort of think we shouldn’t announce vote intention ahead of time? Gonna let that thought stew for a bit. Got to go.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Regardless of your alignment, you’re literally playing a game about lying, stop acting offended when someone wants to do their due diligence. Like, if you’re scum, it’s such a low route of attack anyway.

    I’m going to look at everything, stop telling me I’m bad for doing so.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    Votecount 2.1
    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken
    -Martell Words

    Sir Chris (3): Vaimes, LnGrrrR, Rodemy
    KamikazeArchon (2): Thousand_Winds, Vaimes*
    Killjoy (1): tomsloger
    Vaimes (1): Sir Chris

    Not Voting (10): Hunger, 1053nm, Cantripmancer, Shinichi, Gentleman Johnny, Rhand, KamikazeArchon, RE1031, Killjoy, Tubba Fett

    With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline is May 30 at 1700 MST.

    A reminder about Iron Throne support: All support must be done via PM (either MTGS or discord), and can be changed as many times as you wish up until twilight is announced.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    If last actually passed mission 2 to get a free pass to the next missions then freaking bravo. Rhand never giving up certainly lends some credence to that theory, but he’d have to do that anyway. But he did pass mission 3, so that’s not nothing.

    I’m not sure what to make of Cantrip dummying me, cause like...in most worlds I think he’s still scum? Unless KJ and lng are together and had the best communication ever, them being both scum makes no sense.

    I will hammer out some scenarios later when I am less busy.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    No One Died! And so did Renly

    “Why the oldest son, and not the best-fitted? The crown will suit me, as it never suited Robert and would not suit Stannis.” – Renly Baratheon
    ”Anyone can be killed.” - Arya Stark

    Ah a good night sleep does you well, you were able to get a bit of privacy in your room, a gentle evening breeze flowing through the window.

    But time marches on, and even those who sleep soundly in their beds do not always make it to morning.

    A body is found washed up on shore of the Trident, foul play clear, as you see bloody gashes carved deep into the corpse.

    And yet another is found hanging from a Heart Tree in the north, hands and feet bound, this was no suicide.

    Some of you are deeply impacted by this, others only see the dead as two less obstacles to find the throne.

    Highroller is dead, he was:
    Player: Highroller
    Character: Renly Baratheon
    Faction: Baratheon
    Alignment: Town
    Abilities: Prayer and Devotion (Active) - While you control the Iron Throne, you learn and have this ability.
    Passive: You may support your own claim to the throne.
    [Unlocked Prayer and Devotion: You may protect two target players each night you control the throne.]
    Factional Win Conditions:
    Brother's United - [Redacted until end game]
    -or-
    Ours is the Fury - [redacted until end game]

    You knew things would not go well without interference, and it turned out that you were right. Ned Stark should have forged an alliance with you, but it was too late. You moved your army south, and have now amassed the support of the southern lords and houses. And you have forged a marriage with the young lady Tyrell. Things were good for you. Not even your older brother would be able to stand in your way, and who would follow him? He had as much personality as an empty bookshelf. You are loved, and respected, and capable of doing what needed done.

    With the blessings of the church of the seven, you stand poised to make your claim.
    Lastwhisper is dead! He was:
    Player: Lastwhisper
    Character: Arya Stark
    Faction: Stark
    Alignment: Town
    Abilities: No One (passive) - You cannot be targeted by non-killing abilities.
    Factional Win Conditions:
    Winter is Coming - [redacted until end game]
    -or-
    The North Remebers - [redacted until end game]

    You never liked the typical "girl" things that you were supposed to like. Your needlework was atrocious, you hated dresses, and you were disinterested in giggling at boys. You wanted to learn to fight, you liked to go on adventures, and you despised being called a "lady". When your father died, you got your wish, though not how you would have liked; you fled the city disguised as a boy, and passed under the "protection" of one person to the next, until you broke free and made your way to Bravos. It is there that you became who you are now.

    You trained as a skilled warrior, deft thief, and silent spy. You spent time serving the Many Faced god, learning how to be "No One" so that you could kill anyone without emotion, without regard, only because it was your duty. And yet, even that you failed at, not because you didn't have the skill, but because you could not truly give up yourself. You are Arya Stark of Winterfell.

    It is now Day 2. You may no longer post in any factional chats you are privy to. Day will end 1700 MST, May 30th.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - No One Died! And so did Renly
    Effective immediately, Thousand_Winds replaces D_V. Do not discuss replacements.

    Day start will be within the next hour or so.
    Posted in: Mafia
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