- noshadowkick
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Member for 14 years, 1 month, and 8 days
Last active Sat, Nov, 7 2020 20:06:47
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NotScottMescudi posted a message on [CUBE][ELD] Fabled PassageI will always play any sort of 5c land without big downsides. People cutting evolving wilds for this are doing it wrong, just play all the variants they're some of the best lands in cube.Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion -
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Marl Karx posted a message on [ELD][CUBE] Wicked WolfPosted in: Cube Card and Archetype DiscussionQuote from BlackWaltz3 »While resilience to removal is always a consideration for me, I tend to evaluate cards assuming they won't be removed as I believe the likelihood of a threat sticking around at least for a turn or two is generally greater than that of it being removed--even in cube where removal is plentiful. This matches up pretty well with how I play too. I tend to play as though the opponent doesn't have the counter, removal, etc. because odds are they don't and if I'm going to lose, it is going to be because they beat the odds and not because I held back for fear of an answer they may not have. To be clear, it doesn't mean I'm going to lead with my primary threat when a player is holding up UU or overextend into a wrath.
In terms of Master of the Wild Hunt vs. Wicked Wolf that means I expect that more often than not I'm going to get at least 1 wolf from Master and if that holds true then Master has the capability to fight nearly as well as Wicked Wolf after just 1 turn and after two Master is MUCH better. This is just one axis though, creating more bodies has a lot of additional implications that push Master well beyond this card.
If you want to use your own made up custom system to evaluate cards why not just rule that real Food can be used for Wicked Wolf. Throw a Zinger in the trash to make him indestructible. Or make them flush it if you're pretty sure they'll fish it out of the waste basket later and eat it anyway. -
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LucidVision posted a message on [CUBE][ELD] Rankle, Master of PranksI also think braids is overrated on these forums, but it's still a good card.Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
My best theory as to why, is over-emphasis on her upside. It's easy to remember the games where you play her on the play with a permanent advantage and they fail to answer her.
However, there are a ton of decks that have a lot of permanents where the smokestack effect is slow/symmetrical. In aggressive matchups she's quite bad.
She's really only nuts against decks without many permanents, which in my cube, is a minority of decks. Regardless, it's rare she doesn't get at least a 2 for 1 against those decks and there isn't another 4 drop in black I'd want more in those matchups.
Like smokestack, she also used to be better in an era where cards rarely put more than one permanent on the battlefield. As creature resiliency rose, and power level increased, it's indisputable that she's gotten worse over time. -
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LucidVision posted a message on [CUBE][M20] Knight of the Ebon LegionAm messing around with standard vampires on arena and this guy has massively overpeformed.Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion
Different environments blah blah, but seeing why he's been so good has got me hyped.
In an agro deck, doing 4 damage by turn 3 is trivial and once the counters start to spiral, you don't even need the activated ability before he becomes much better than a generic 2/1.
Once you factor in the activated ability he becomes near unblockable and can occasionally do crazy amounts of damage by himself when you are hellbent and nothing better to do with your mana. Also awsome on defense in removal light situations.
Something particular in cube, but black has a lot of ways to do itself damage. A shock land + a vamp tutor, or a dismember and you trigger his ability to grow without doing 4 damage to them. In standard, I grow the knight by self activate adanto vanguard's indestructable a lot EOT to do extra damage or play around cry of the carnarium.
He's impressed me so much that I'm already 95% confident he's better than the worst black agro 1 drop everyone here is playing. Not going to be a cube all-star or anything, but the bar he's trying to climb is one set by vampire lacerator. Is he better? I'd wager quite a lot the answer is yes.
He also is reasonable in an agressive midrange deck, something that can't be said for many other black 1 drops. So even if he's 99% as good in agro, being playable in more archtypes would make me want to cube him. -
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THUNDERWANG posted a message on [MH1][CUBE] Yawgmoth, Thran PhysicianThis card has far exceeded my expectations. It's a mini Skullclamp and Serrated Arrows built on a stick. He's burn proof and the proliferate allows players to ultimate their walkers faster while simultaneously controlling the board. Drawing more creatures just means that he can continue to put more -1/-1 counters on the board, and if you draw a land, he can just proliferate. The random protection from humans clause isn't just flavor text either; it's occasionally relevant since humans is probably the most common creature type in many cubes. Praise Yawgmoth.Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion -
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Tiro of Meletis posted a message on infuriate and...... LEYLINE OF SANCTITY REPRINT!!!Noah Bradley art on the Leylines. omg, if he does Leyline of Anticipation's art too I am going to steamroll over everyone at the pre-release to get it like a mad hood woman who raised 3 boys gunning for a flat screen 42" on Black Friday at Walmart.Posted in: The Rumor Mill -
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BounceBurnBuff posted a message on Oathbreaker (60 card, Planeswalkers as Commanders)Since Genesis Wave is such a sweet card to pull off, but I wanted to be a little less obvious about it, here's an example of what I'm running. It won't stand up to the decks looking to break the format in half, but making your beefy rampers indestructible whilst drawing you cards feels like a dream.Posted in: Variant Commander
Jiang Hears the CallMagic OnlineOCTGN2ApprenticeBuy These Cards Oathbreaker (2)
1 Jiang Yanggu, Wildcrafter
1 Inspiring Call
Creature (25)
1x Arbor Elf
1x Armorcraft Judge
1x Avenger of Zendikar
1x Bane of Progress
1x Beast Whisperer
1x Boreal Druid
1x Champion of Lambholt
1x Craterhoof Behemoth
1x Elvish Mystic
1x Endless One
1x Eternal Witness
1x Fyndhorn Elves
1x Gyre Sage
1x Incubation Druid
1x Ivy Lane Denizen
1x Kalonian Hydra
1x Llanowar Elves
1x Marwyn, the Nurturer
1x Reclamation Sage
1x Rishkar, Peema Renegade
1x Sakura-Tribe Elder
1x Scrounging Bandar
1x Ugin's Conjurant
1x Verdurous Gearhulk
1x Walking BallistaInstant (4)
1x Beast Within
1x Benefactor's Draught
1x Nature's Claim
1x Solidarity of Heroes
Sorcery (2)
1x Genesis Wave
1x Shamanic Revelation
Artifact (1)
1x Paradox Engine
Enchantment (3)
1x Concordant Crossroads
1x Durable Handicraft
1x Song of the Dryads
Planeswalker (1)
1x Nissa, Voice of Zendikar
Land (22)
18x Forest
1x Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
1x Oran-Rief, the Vastwood
1x Scavenger Grounds
1x Strip Mine -
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TorontoJock posted a message on [CUBE][GRN] Doom WhispererJust being able to manipulate your library and graveyard to this extent is so powerful in Cube. Oh yeah, it's also a 6/6 flying trample win condition.Posted in: Cube Card and Archetype Discussion -
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steve_man posted a message on [CUBE] - Night IncarnatePosted in: Cube Card and Archetype DiscussionQuote from noshadowkick »Quote from Metamind »I think this card will be played a lot more often as a 4 mana wrath than a 5cc creature
Agree, and that's what I like most about this card. This guy is a wrath that can be tutored for and abused by the plethora of things that tutor for and abuse creatures.
FWIW, I love the art too.
The cards that Tutor for creatures are usually in creature heavy decks, where I really wouldn’t want to play this maindeck. -
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Salmo posted a message on [CUBE] CryptbreakerPosted in: Cube Card and Archetype DiscussionQuote from noshadowkick »Interesting reports. I'm going to give this guy a test run over Carrion Feeder.
FWIW I think they play well together since Feeder is a zombie and can eat the tokens. - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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I wish this guy had 4 toughness, but it's not a deal breaker. We run several X/1 aggro dudes at 2 mana.
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100% agree with this statement. This creature is pushed and strong, but it's not going to warp any environments.
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Below is an ugly copy/paste from an online hypergeometric calculator showing the chances of having an aggro 1 drop in your opening 7, assuming you have 8 in your deck. This has been an invaluable tool for me and I highly recommend using it to evaluate your own cubes.
(https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx)
Population size
40
Number of successes in population
8
Sample size
7
Number of successes in sample (x)
1
Hypergeometric Probability: P(X = 1)
0.38884934
Cumulative Probability: P(X < 1)
0.180537194
Cumulative Probability: P(X </= 1)
0.569386533
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 1)
0.430613467
Cumulative Probability: P(X >/= 1)
0.819462806
Basically what this tells me is that with 8 one drops in my deck, 4 out of 5 times (82%) I'll have one in my opening 7. Ideally, I'd like to have that number be higher, but you have to draw the line somewhere. 10 aggro one drops brings my chances up to 90%, but only having six aggro one drops drops my chances to 70%. As a rule of thumb, my target # of aggro one drops is 8, but if I can draft more, great.
How does this information affect my overall cube design? Lets look at more math:
Population size
540
Number of successes in population
16
Sample size
360
Number of successes in sample (x)
8
Hypergeometric Probability: P(X = 8)
0.075647491
Cumulative Probability: P(X < 8)
0.047400417
Cumulative Probability: P(X </= 8)
0.123047907
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 8)
0.876952093
Cumulative Probability: P(X >/= 8)
0.952599583
Assuming a normal 8 man pod with 3 packs of 15 (360 total cards seen), there is a 95% chance that at least 8 one drops of any given color will be included in the draft pool. This is pretty much where I want to be. In reality this overstates the chance that any single player will actually see all 8 in a draft because cards are drafted out of packs before you see them.
Why am I only focusing on one color? What about two color aggro decks? Lucidvision, you mentioned that splashing for a second color is an option in aggro, and you are totally right, but I think it's very important to support mono color aggro decks in order for the archetype to thrive. Being heavily in two colors in an aggro deck puts serious strain on the mana. The same hypergeometric calculation I used in above for one drops applies to lands. If I want an 80% chance of having an color source in my opening 7, I need 8 sources in my deck. If I want a 90% chance, I need 10 sources. Add in the fact that aggro decks tend to be light on lands and prioritize untapped mana sources (sorry manlands) and things get real tight, real fast. If I have an evenly split 2 color aggro deck with 4 red one drops and 4 white one drops, to have a high degree of certainty I'll be able to play aggressively on turn one I need 10 untapped sources of each color. If I want to go down to 14-15 lands, I'd need 5 untapped dual lands in that specific guild. That's a big ask. If I'm playing a 2 color aggro deck, I'd much rather splash up the curve at 2, 3, and even 4 mana and keep my one drops as close to mono colored as possible.
Another consideration is the my overall archetype balance. I only support three archetypes in my cube: Aggro, Midrange, and Control. No reanimator, no artifact stuff, no aristocrats, ect. My goal is that for an 8 man draft the cube supports 2-3 of each archetype so in any given pod there will be 3 aggro decks, 2 midrange decks, and 3 control decks, or some similar combination. The desire to support 3 mono-colored (or close to it) aggro decks in a single cube draft necessitates that black, white, and red all have enough aggro beaters to support a deck with at least 8 one drops with a high degree of certainty. Not every deck is going to come together every draft, obviously, and I love variety as much as the next guy, but it's important to me that drafters are able to execute assembling the decks I support more often than not.
This is all well and good, but I also do a lot of 1v1 drafting in my playgroup using the glimpse method (9 packs of 15, pick one burn 2). With 16 aggro one drops per color in my 540 doing a 2 man glimpse draft, the math looks like this:
Population size
540
Number of successes in population
16
Sample size
270
Number of successes in sample (x)
8
Hypergeometric Probability: P(X = 8)
0.19935343
Cumulative Probability: P(X < 8)
0.400323285
Cumulative Probability: P(X </= 8)
0.599676715
Cumulative Probability: P(X > 8)
0.400323285
Cumulative Probability: P(X >/= 8)
0.599676715
60% chance of being able to see 8 aggro one drops in a single color. Not great, but in a 2 man draft we kind of expect decks to be a little less consistent so it's not the end of the world. Still, my own analysis is telling me that I should be running MORE aggro duders, not less.
A couple other things:
I've talked about my overall cube environment elsewhere on MTGS so I'll be super brief here. I run significantly more removal (both sweepers and spot), countermagic, ramp elves, cantrips, and of course aggro beaters than most cubes here. My curve, on average, is a bit lower (nothing above 6 mana, period). Because I don't run synergy decks, it's way easier for me to have redundancy in what I consider key categories. Aggro beaters, midrange ramp, wraths for control, and cheap interaction all around. I also don't run a bunch of cards that I feel create lame, binary, gameplay like Winter Orb, Mind Twist, Armageddon, ect. My goal is to have a balanced environment where a drafter can sit down and have a roughly equal chance of winning a pod drafting any of the archetypes I support. In my environment, durdly decks don't really happen, if they do it's a mistake. Aggro decks tend to curve out at 3 mana, with maybe a 4 drop or two, and should NEVER be running anything 5 mana or above. Midrange is alive and well in my meta, so in order to compete, aggro decks need to be super consistent and able to come out of the gates swinging every game.
All this to say... I need lots of black one drops and thus have room to try Foulmire Knight.
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I think this is one of the best mechanics for cube we've seen in a LONG time. It's like a combo between split cards, fuse, and aftermath. Every single card with adventure gives you the option to "draw a card." I'm guessing we get several good Adventure cards for cube.
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Don't cut a 1 mana dork! Cut a 2 mana dork or, if you are still running them Kodama's Reach/Cultivate. Cheap ramp is amazing and green's single greatest strength
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