I'm leaning much more strongly towards you and KCW atm, since there is additional evidence against you in addition to your each not being cleared.
To clarify: your scummy voting patterns, and behavior like calling for a mass roleclaim before we had titus around to verify them for us, survivor style voting, and defending chrome moxen (in the case of KCW).
This is pure nonsense. We always need conclusive leads on who the mafia is. Suspicion rising...
Hardly. Through process of elimination, there are only around 3 or 4 remaining possibilities of people that could be mafia. Everyone else has been positively cleared as innocent by various methods. If you'd like to dispute them, feel free.
Those who have not been proven innocent are: Yourself, KCW, and possibly 20bux or safetydance. I'm leaning much more strongly towards you and KCW atm, since there is additional evidence against you in addition to your each not being cleared.
But now, practically everyone's profile is out in the open, they know that hvir has the cop ability, and that I'm the doc, I wouldn't be surprised if they killed me tonight. This helps the mafia does it not?
Overall, it's an incredibly bad trade for them. So no, not really. If they weren't revealed themselves, it would help them, but unless we screw up in a major way we aren't going to lose now.
Quote from lt ripper »
Fine, if you are so sure of yourself, vote for titus then. We're not trying to make any records here.
I'd prefer to be proved right by hunting down scum, not by killing innocents.
Quote from kingcobweb »
This is what makes me most suspicious of Titus: why would there be 2 cop roles in the game, 1 of them almost strictly inferior to the other? Let's analyze this, shall we: Titus can find out the role names. Hvir can find out role names, AND affiliation. Soooo, what I'm saying is that it would make sense for the Mafia to get a sort of mini-cop of their own, as obviously, they don't need to know people's affiliation.
Titus isn't a cop, or a cop variant. He just has a list of knowledge in his role PM, if i'm not mistaken.
If you're looking at why would there be two people with seemingly contradictory abilities, it would be titus and billking. Titus has the entire list, while billking's ability sounds as if it's exactly the sort of thing the mafia could use to establish priority targets: it allows him to find the role-name of a single person, correct? This is exactly the type of thing 20bux was mentioning that it would be useful for the mafia to have: a method of identifiying a person's role so that they could figure out who to hit, and who not to hit.
That would make him obsolete compared to titus, if he was on the same side.
Vote billking. The evidence now points more strongly against him than KCW.
Quote from kingcobweb »
Also, I've been thinking. How do we know for sure Azrael is a townie? The only information we have is that he put himself in the "confirmed townies" list.
RTT:
Quote from 20bux »
Also, is it possible that Azrael is Mafia and picked one Mafioso and one Townie to off, thus killing a Townie and solidifying the Town's trust in him? I definately wouldn't put it past him, but in a game this small, doing it this early would be a major hit to the Mafia, because the chance that an SK or lynch will get blindly lucky is too great. But maybe he just wants us to think it would be suicidal. Hmmm...
Quote from axelrod »
I considered this also, but I keep coming back to the fact that to give two instant daykills to the Traitor Mafia, on top of the nightly kill, would be absolutely broken. I can't believe that reed (or Sparrow) would do something like that. Assuming there are three Traitors, they start off only needing to kill/lynch 6 of us to win the game. Two daykills brings it down to four. One bad town lynch, one night, and suddenly we have just about lost.
Even if Sparrow did go insane and give them this ability, by killing even one Traitor (if only to divert suspicion) now the remaining two traitors need to kill/lynch eight of us to win. That's not what I call good strategy. Especially when it looked like musashi was getting lynched anyway, and when he came up innocent, Titus would be the next easy target. No, Azrael would never have done what he did if he were a Traitor, it just makes no sense.
By the same token, Titus wouldn't have been calling for musashi's lynch first if he were a Traitor, it's bad strategy.
Actually, it is a very good Mafia role. It allows them to prioritize their kills. For example, they investigate someone who turns out to be a vanilla townie and realize he isn't worth killing so soon. Or they investigate the doc and immediately kill him.
Investigation is a very potent Mafia ability, if not a common one.
Azrael, I am becoming more suspicious of you with every post. That doesn't mean very much, though, as I am infamous for making bad calls, especially regarding you.
It only would allow them to prioritize their kills if they have a mafia investigator, a cop of their own. According to the list of claimants, unless that happens to be your ability, there is little or no possibility that they have such an asset. And I think it's pretty safe to say that that is NOT your ability, correct?
Quote from kcw »
But do we have any conclusive leads on who the Mafia is? Right now, it seems that fingers are pointing at me and titus, and like I said, I welcome an investigation.
So here's the story. Either a) we kill titus and we've killed a mafia/win the game, b) you kill me without even investigating me, and do the Mafia's job for them, c) we kill titus and 2 of the "confirmed townies" aren't.
We no longer need conclusive leads of who the mafia IS, because we now know who they AREN'T. Through process of elimination, we know have an excellent idea of who the remaining possibilities are for lynching.
Quote from Lt. Ripper »
Exactly, but if they know who the doc/cop is, who are the most important to the townies, it would be logical to kill them first, as they are the MOST THREATENING ROLE.
Yes, it's true that they would gain the knowledge of who the most important townie roles are. But if they end up all being slaughtered in the process, that doesn't sound like a very good trade, does it?
Quote from Lt. Ripper »
Oh, and Az, I thought you were suppose to be good in these games considering that this is definitely not your first. You're becoming a little scummy on my radar here in not seeing the importance of lynching titus.
*shakes head* You're not looking at the facts objectively. If Titus had any other role, i might be inclined to give some more credence to your point. But he singlehandedly sparked the wave of mass role-claiming which has made it almost impossible for the mafia to succeed, and his ability doesn't fit the profile of a mafia agent's. It fits the profile of a townie perfectly.
Your inexperience is clouding your judgment. You're jumping at shadows, allowing your own vague fears to govern your actions. Don't rely on your emotions and suspicions to outweigh the cold, hard facts. You can lynch titus and learn this lesson the hard way, or you can play it smart and help us end this game quickly and decisively in the town's favor.
The evidence confirms me as innocent, and it does the same for Titus. Think it through, review the situation impartially. If you kill him, you'll be making an embarrassingly stupid mistake: killing the man who facilitated our being able to completely rout the mafia and make their defeat inevitable before even the first night had passed, and whose ability clearly marked him as a townie, simply on the false assumption that one bad play, one false assumption=scum.
So you can either kill him and prove me right, and then we can move on with the business of hunting down the survivors, or you could avoid the embarassment of making a very obvious mistake and we can end this game in record time.
You don't think that this can help the Mafia? Don't you realize that now, not only do they know who the cop is, they know who the doctor is, too. Doesn't that seem in the slightest bit advantageous...ious...ily... whatever to the mafia? You really think they're going to wait even 1 night before Lt. Ripper dies?
I don't think it matters much if the cop and/or doctor dies, if the mafia are all dead by the time they accomplish it.
Oh, one more thing: how many mafia are in this game? According to Mafiascum.net, it's standard for either 1 or 2 mafia in a 12-person game. And, seeing as 1 is already dead, do we only have 1 more to kill?
No. 25%, or 3 people, would be the standard number. There should only be 2 left, 3 at most. I think 2 mafia, plus one neutral and several alternate win conditions would be quite balanced.
Alright, if he made an educated guess, he wouldn't have so heavily implied that he knew who the scum were, he "confirmed" musashi to be scum.
If you DO consider his ability, if you're saying he has one, then sure it might not be a mafia role, but then why would he lie?
My vote still stands.
He was working off the faulty premise that all members of the don's family were probably scum.
It was a mistake, but not a damning one. He told us what he believed to be the truth.
Quote from billking »
Azrael, you're not convincing me. Frankly, nothing's going to convince me. I know you're golden by killing a scum. Thanks a bunch for that. But defening titus here is wrongheaded. He lied, and we need to lynch all liars.
Everyone is wrong once in a while. He took a gamble that he knew the truth of things, and he turned out to be wrong. I don't believe that he intentionally misled us.
It doesn't make sense that he's lying about his ability, or that he's a traitor. It has been confirmed by the way he told both me and axelrod what our abilities are. Logically, it is NOT a traitor ability: they would have little or no use for that role information. Clearly its designed in order to give the town additional information to better coordinate their lynches.
And I also agree that it's unlikely that he would have come forward so early, and attracted so much attention, if he were mafia. Also, if he was mafia, then he would have fewer or no restrictions about the information he was able to reveal, and he would have had to have been faking that. All that is hard for me to believe, it's too unlikely a scenario.
Quote from billking »
Hold the freaking phone.
You admit you're not a loyalist? Awesome. One less scum to find.
You're not a traitor? Guess what... we don't care. You're either with us or against us, and you're coming out and saying you're not with us.
Guys, I know we have a bandwagon on titus right now, but this is just rediculous. safetydance must die.
That's ludicrous. We have much higher priorities right now then taking out a neutral character. Your logic is flawed. Every non-mafia person we have in the town right now is another barrier to the mafia winning. He clearly has more interest in siding with the town right now than the mafia, who will very shortly become extinct.
By definition, if he is neutral, he is not "against us". We have a chance to slaughter the rest of the mafia in short order here, there should be no need to go after safetydance yet. And if it's only ploy to buy some time, so be it. The mafia shouldn't have much time left, the mass role-claim facilitated by titus has flushed them into the open.
Again, I'd ask you, would titus have wanted to reveal that list, and started us along the route to mass role-claiming, if he was mafia? No. That would be the
last thing he would want to happen. As soon as that information went public, the mafia was doomed. We were able to confirm far too many townies for them to have a chance of survival. If titus was a mafia, revealing the names of everyone in the game would have dealt a deathblow to them, resulting in his two companions being quickly tracked down and slaughtered, and his own eventual demise. Titus CANNOT be mafia, and he did NOT try to lie to us.
Also, you don't see KCW as a threat, given his voting pattern and role? You wouldn't even call for his investigation? Wow. That's a little scary.
Lt. Ripper, I'd ask that you protect Hvir tonight, and Hvir, can you investigate Billking? I'm not sure how much I'm trusting him at the moment. He's been making too many bad moves, using too much false logic, from the very beginning.
My apologies for the triple post, but after farther thought, I'm convinced that Dementia Blader is actually another one of our confirmed townies.
I don't believe my role PM would have been worded the way it was if Dementia Blader was mafia. It said that we two had to make it to the final four in order to sucessfully trigger our second win condition, but that wouldn't make much sense if he was mafia. Also the PM said that both of us wanted out of the mafia if we could find a way, and so I believe that also clears him.
Ok. Let's see what we can determine with the information at hand.
Updated Role Name List:
Dementia Blader- The Butler
Axelrod- The Chef
Billking- The Lawyer
Azrael- The Entertainer
20bux- The Don's Son
Lt. Ripper- The Doctor
KCW- The Hitman
Hvir- The Cop/Right Hand Man
Ok. Now that we have their names, and some of the voting records of those who went after chrome moxen, and musashi, we can begin to make some good educated guesses about who is and isn't above board.
This would be my list of confirmed townies:
Lt. Ripper-He's the doc.
Azrael- I killed a scum.
Axelrod-seems to have a pro-town ability
Billking-attacked chrome moxen early on, was the first to vote against him
20bux-was verified by Hvir to be a townie, and was the second to vote for chrome moxen
Hvir-he's the cop
Unknown:
Dementia Blader- The Butler
KCW- The Hitman
Safetydance-Unknown
We have only three unknowns left, only three people who have yet to prove their innocence. There is a simple solution to this problem. The entire town gathers together to lynch them all in turn. Assuming we are facing a three person mafia, there will only be one townie out of that group, probably either safetydance or dementia blader.
So from what i've seen in the thread so far, the evidence points most strongly against KCW. He's the mafia hitman, he was defending chrome moxen, he tried to justify the attempt to lurker vote musashi, and he just now initiated the idiotic wagon to kill titus, more or less a proven townie.
Vote KCW. If we pull together as a town, and unite our votes and pick the remaining unknowns off one by one, we should have this game over in a matter of 2 or 3 days, perhaps 4 if 20bux is a mafia "don" and pinged false on hvir's investigation. His vote for titus wasn't very reassuring to me, but KCW seems to be the most pressing target, and for now I'm inclined to hope that hvir's investigation was true.
I agree with Axelrod that Titus doesn't appear too scummy to me, and I'd also agree that Axelrod doesn't seem very scummy himself, as yet.
Titus' ability is not a mafia type of ability, at all. It's an information role, that gives the town the ability to figure out what they're up against. The mafia would have no use for such an ability (they just shoot everyone who isn't them), and much to fear from it.
Axelrod's chef ability seems to clear him pretty well, unless we find Billking dead from poison in a few more days.
I would caution everyone here in the strongest of terms against voting against either of these two yet. The evidence that we've accumulated so far does NOT implicate them. I'm much more interesting in completing the claim list as much as we can today, and going over everyone's activity once again and comparing it to their voting history and their role name.
And one more time for emphasis: If we lynch titus or axelrod at this point, we are making a serious mistake. I'd request that some of you unvote them immediately, we can't afford to lose titus before he can help us verify everyone, and so far the evidence points strongly towards his being a townie.
The attempt to lynch him and axelrod is seriously misguided.
Dementia Blader- The Butler
Axelrod- The Chef
Billking- The Lawyer
Azrael- The Entertainer
20bux- The Don's Son
Lt. Ripper- The Doctor
KCW- The Hitman
Hvir- The Cop/Right Hand Man
Yet to claim:
Musashi
Chrome Moxen
Titus
Safetydance
Azrael, I'm confused as why you used your ability so early, you could have waited atleast until we lynched Musashi (if we did) and then we would have been able to know if titus was scum or not, right now, we are setting up a lot of trust on him, and so early too.
Essentially I just "lynched" musashi for us, saving us a day, so that if titus turned out to be making a false cop claim, we could remove him immediately without missing a lynch, or if he was telling the truth, that we could act appropriately on that knowledge while he was still around..
Unfortunately, Titus wasn't actually making a cop claim after all, so the hit on musashi is more or less a shot in the dark, and the chrome mox hit probably isn't much better.
yes! mass roleclaim - confirm/deny - lynch all liars.
Now that we have titus here to confirm/deny, a mass roleclaim of the title of each of our characters should definitely help the town out. We'll want to keep each person's abilities under cover, but identifying the hitman/son/daughter-in-law, and wife might be a good idea.
Here's what we have so far, I believe:
Dementia Blader- The Butler
Axelrod- The Chef
Billking- The Lawyer
Azrael- The Entertainer
To clarify: your scummy voting patterns, and behavior like calling for a mass roleclaim before we had titus around to verify them for us, survivor style voting, and defending chrome moxen (in the case of KCW).
Hardly. Through process of elimination, there are only around 3 or 4 remaining possibilities of people that could be mafia. Everyone else has been positively cleared as innocent by various methods. If you'd like to dispute them, feel free.
Those who have not been proven innocent are: Yourself, KCW, and possibly 20bux or safetydance. I'm leaning much more strongly towards you and KCW atm, since there is additional evidence against you in addition to your each not being cleared.
Overall, it's an incredibly bad trade for them. So no, not really. If they weren't revealed themselves, it would help them, but unless we screw up in a major way we aren't going to lose now.
I'd prefer to be proved right by hunting down scum, not by killing innocents.
Titus isn't a cop, or a cop variant. He just has a list of knowledge in his role PM, if i'm not mistaken.
If you're looking at why would there be two people with seemingly contradictory abilities, it would be titus and billking. Titus has the entire list, while billking's ability sounds as if it's exactly the sort of thing the mafia could use to establish priority targets: it allows him to find the role-name of a single person, correct? This is exactly the type of thing 20bux was mentioning that it would be useful for the mafia to have: a method of identifiying a person's role so that they could figure out who to hit, and who not to hit.
That would make him obsolete compared to titus, if he was on the same side.
Vote billking. The evidence now points more strongly against him than KCW.
RTT:
It only would allow them to prioritize their kills if they have a mafia investigator, a cop of their own. According to the list of claimants, unless that happens to be your ability, there is little or no possibility that they have such an asset. And I think it's pretty safe to say that that is NOT your ability, correct?
We no longer need conclusive leads of who the mafia IS, because we now know who they AREN'T. Through process of elimination, we know have an excellent idea of who the remaining possibilities are for lynching.
Yes, it's true that they would gain the knowledge of who the most important townie roles are. But if they end up all being slaughtered in the process, that doesn't sound like a very good trade, does it?
*shakes head* You're not looking at the facts objectively. If Titus had any other role, i might be inclined to give some more credence to your point. But he singlehandedly sparked the wave of mass role-claiming which has made it almost impossible for the mafia to succeed, and his ability doesn't fit the profile of a mafia agent's. It fits the profile of a townie perfectly.
Your inexperience is clouding your judgment. You're jumping at shadows, allowing your own vague fears to govern your actions. Don't rely on your emotions and suspicions to outweigh the cold, hard facts. You can lynch titus and learn this lesson the hard way, or you can play it smart and help us end this game quickly and decisively in the town's favor.
The evidence confirms me as innocent, and it does the same for Titus. Think it through, review the situation impartially. If you kill him, you'll be making an embarrassingly stupid mistake: killing the man who facilitated our being able to completely rout the mafia and make their defeat inevitable before even the first night had passed, and whose ability clearly marked him as a townie, simply on the false assumption that one bad play, one false assumption=scum.
So you can either kill him and prove me right, and then we can move on with the business of hunting down the survivors, or you could avoid the embarassment of making a very obvious mistake and we can end this game in record time.
I don't think it matters much if the cop and/or doctor dies, if the mafia are all dead by the time they accomplish it.
No. 25%, or 3 people, would be the standard number. There should only be 2 left, 3 at most. I think 2 mafia, plus one neutral and several alternate win conditions would be quite balanced.
He was working off the faulty premise that all members of the don's family were probably scum.
It was a mistake, but not a damning one. He told us what he believed to be the truth.
Everyone is wrong once in a while. He took a gamble that he knew the truth of things, and he turned out to be wrong. I don't believe that he intentionally misled us.
It doesn't make sense that he's lying about his ability, or that he's a traitor. It has been confirmed by the way he told both me and axelrod what our abilities are. Logically, it is NOT a traitor ability: they would have little or no use for that role information. Clearly its designed in order to give the town additional information to better coordinate their lynches.
And I also agree that it's unlikely that he would have come forward so early, and attracted so much attention, if he were mafia. Also, if he was mafia, then he would have fewer or no restrictions about the information he was able to reveal, and he would have had to have been faking that. All that is hard for me to believe, it's too unlikely a scenario.
That's ludicrous. We have much higher priorities right now then taking out a neutral character. Your logic is flawed. Every non-mafia person we have in the town right now is another barrier to the mafia winning. He clearly has more interest in siding with the town right now than the mafia, who will very shortly become extinct.
By definition, if he is neutral, he is not "against us". We have a chance to slaughter the rest of the mafia in short order here, there should be no need to go after safetydance yet. And if it's only ploy to buy some time, so be it. The mafia shouldn't have much time left, the mass role-claim facilitated by titus has flushed them into the open.
Again, I'd ask you, would titus have wanted to reveal that list, and started us along the route to mass role-claiming, if he was mafia? No. That would be the
last thing he would want to happen. As soon as that information went public, the mafia was doomed. We were able to confirm far too many townies for them to have a chance of survival. If titus was a mafia, revealing the names of everyone in the game would have dealt a deathblow to them, resulting in his two companions being quickly tracked down and slaughtered, and his own eventual demise. Titus CANNOT be mafia, and he did NOT try to lie to us.
Also, you don't see KCW as a threat, given his voting pattern and role? You wouldn't even call for his investigation? Wow. That's a little scary.
Lt. Ripper, I'd ask that you protect Hvir tonight, and Hvir, can you investigate Billking? I'm not sure how much I'm trusting him at the moment. He's been making too many bad moves, using too much false logic, from the very beginning.
I don't believe my role PM would have been worded the way it was if Dementia Blader was mafia. It said that we two had to make it to the final four in order to sucessfully trigger our second win condition, but that wouldn't make much sense if he was mafia. Also the PM said that both of us wanted out of the mafia if we could find a way, and so I believe that also clears him.
He made an educated guess, based on his knowledge. But consider his ability: it is NOT a mafia role.
He's been falsely bandwagoned to the verge of death. We NEED you to unvote him. I'm more or less a proven townie, you can trust my judgment on this.
Updated Role Name List:
Dementia Blader- The Butler
Axelrod- The Chef
Billking- The Lawyer
Azrael- The Entertainer
20bux- The Don's Son
Lt. Ripper- The Doctor
KCW- The Hitman
Hvir- The Cop/Right Hand Man
Safetydance-Unknown
Musashi-Dead, Dead, Mafia Loyalist
Chrome Moxen-Dead, Mafia Traitor
Titus- Can't Claim
Ok. Now that we have their names, and some of the voting records of those who went after chrome moxen, and musashi, we can begin to make some good educated guesses about who is and isn't above board.
This would be my list of confirmed townies:
Lt. Ripper-He's the doc.
Azrael- I killed a scum.
Axelrod-seems to have a pro-town ability
Billking-attacked chrome moxen early on, was the first to vote against him
20bux-was verified by Hvir to be a townie, and was the second to vote for chrome moxen
Hvir-he's the cop
Unknown:
Dementia Blader- The Butler
KCW- The Hitman
Safetydance-Unknown
We have only three unknowns left, only three people who have yet to prove their innocence. There is a simple solution to this problem. The entire town gathers together to lynch them all in turn. Assuming we are facing a three person mafia, there will only be one townie out of that group, probably either safetydance or dementia blader.
So from what i've seen in the thread so far, the evidence points most strongly against KCW. He's the mafia hitman, he was defending chrome moxen, he tried to justify the attempt to lurker vote musashi, and he just now initiated the idiotic wagon to kill titus, more or less a proven townie.
Vote KCW. If we pull together as a town, and unite our votes and pick the remaining unknowns off one by one, we should have this game over in a matter of 2 or 3 days, perhaps 4 if 20bux is a mafia "don" and pinged false on hvir's investigation. His vote for titus wasn't very reassuring to me, but KCW seems to be the most pressing target, and for now I'm inclined to hope that hvir's investigation was true.
Titus' ability is not a mafia type of ability, at all. It's an information role, that gives the town the ability to figure out what they're up against. The mafia would have no use for such an ability (they just shoot everyone who isn't them), and much to fear from it.
Axelrod's chef ability seems to clear him pretty well, unless we find Billking dead from poison in a few more days.
I would caution everyone here in the strongest of terms against voting against either of these two yet. The evidence that we've accumulated so far does NOT implicate them. I'm much more interesting in completing the claim list as much as we can today, and going over everyone's activity once again and comparing it to their voting history and their role name.
And one more time for emphasis: If we lynch titus or axelrod at this point, we are making a serious mistake. I'd request that some of you unvote them immediately, we can't afford to lose titus before he can help us verify everyone, and so far the evidence points strongly towards his being a townie.
The attempt to lynch him and axelrod is seriously misguided.
Dementia Blader- The Butler
Axelrod- The Chef
Billking- The Lawyer
Azrael- The Entertainer
20bux- The Don's Son
Lt. Ripper- The Doctor
KCW- The Hitman
Hvir- The Cop/Right Hand Man
Yet to claim:
Musashi
Chrome Moxen
Titus
Safetydance
Essentially I just "lynched" musashi for us, saving us a day, so that if titus turned out to be making a false cop claim, we could remove him immediately without missing a lynch, or if he was telling the truth, that we could act appropriately on that knowledge while he was still around..
Unfortunately, Titus wasn't actually making a cop claim after all, so the hit on musashi is more or less a shot in the dark, and the chrome mox hit probably isn't much better.
Now that we have titus here to confirm/deny, a mass roleclaim of the title of each of our characters should definitely help the town out. We'll want to keep each person's abilities under cover, but identifying the hitman/son/daughter-in-law, and wife might be a good idea.
Here's what we have so far, I believe:
Dementia Blader- The Butler
Axelrod- The Chef
Billking- The Lawyer
Azrael- The Entertainer
For all I know, the butler did it. : /
I hope not, but I suppose it's possible.