But, as I missed but Axel so astutely pointed out, you really didn't.
Any one of you could (or can) look up that game. The information was available for anyone who cared to look.
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
Why only then? Show me that you can construct a calm and rational response here, and I'll reply in kind. How does that sound?
Apparently, rationality is in the eye of the beholder.
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
If my apology at the beginning doesn't clear me in the town's eyes (and to think, I was only being polite...), then I can claim. Can't speak for Axel on this, of course, but he seems to be gambling his life for yours anyway, and overall has been much more helpful to the town than you.
I think it would be very rash to speak on Axel's behalf like that. You're at least as great a candidate as him.
Quote from Blinking spirit »
And again you try to deflect the attention onto me, who's been on the "looking cleared" list since the beginning. Something to hide?
Pffft. I'm heading straight for the gallows, i've got nothing to lose or gain, unless I'm townie.
I already debunked the reasoning that would "clear" you for being a townie. You're no more cleared than the rest of us, the only thing we know is that you have a night role of some kind.
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
If you're townie, the vig burns one of us tonight. If I'm the one who survives, and the town wishes it, I will claim wholly.
Good.
Quote from Blinking spirit »
You're the one who was attacking, or at least lashing out against, Axel in your last post. Hence my discussion of his situation. The vig is, of course, free to kill whomever he wills.
However, I didn't limit my attack to him. Since you're the one pushing for this so violently, naturally my suspicions are moving towards you more strongly.
And I have to wonder, why the reluctance to take that risk yourself? Why not pose it as a "if I'm wrong, the vig kills me", instead of a "if I'm wrong, the vig kills axelrod"? If you're 100% confident in your analysis, why not take the bet?
Just tossing out ideas here; I really think you're mafia proper.
Mafia proper who claimed Uyo the Silent Prophey on day one? Right.
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
I've seen you defend yourself in other games; usually you're much more aggressive with the quotes and the logic, not merely dismissive. There is something very wrong with your behavior, and the simplest, cleanest explanation is that you're scum.
My response depends on the quality of the argument I'm facing, and the persons making it. When dealing with analysts, I tend to go for calm and rational responses.
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
This hasn't really deterred you before. Why'd you decide to change your strategy for this game, when your old strategy served you so well in others? Here's my theory: stung by the suspicions (quite mild, really) brought against you yesterday, you decided you needed to reassert your normal, analytical, talkative self, and you did slip up. Badly. You have and continue to ignore evidence that bateleur cleared Puzzle, you attack Axelrod with very little evidence (when you defended him from bateleur on the first day for exactly the same reason), and now your self-defense is... half-hearted, perhaps?
Ugh. This is quite the dilemma. Should the vigilante kill Axel, or should he kill you, upon my death? Perhaps both, in sequence? Odds are, one of you is scum.
Course, the real mafia might be playing it smart and letting the town commit suicide, too.
Quote from blinking spirit »
Since when is "something not quite right is going on here" an analysis? And are you really suggesting that everyone who suspects you is mafia in conspiracy against you?
Hardly. But odds are, at least one of them is pushing this along.
Is it you?
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
Yes, yes you did. You have a lot of influence due to your reputation, but not enough to try to get us to lynch two active and relatively unsuspicious townies (there's Axel's mafia mixup, but...)
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
If the town wants me to make a full roleclaim, I will cheerfully do so. I have a subliminal claim ready for revelation, and it is anything but ambiguous. But I believe the thumbscrews are on you at the moment.
Why don't both you and Axel claim either tonight, before I might be hitting the gallows, to give the vig more information to make a decision, OR, at the beginning of tomorrow's day, after it's been conclusively revealed I was innocent?
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
In the unlikely event that you're not scum, the vigilante fries Axel tonight, and we bag a scum anyway. He doesn't need to reveal his evidence to make his claim of having such evidence decisive; if he's scum, he's damning himself by even insinuating this.
Why would Axel be scum, rather than one of the other supporters? Are you trying to two-for-one two of our strongest analysts?
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
Yeah right. You don't have a leg to stand on, so you resort to bluffs and gambits. Azrael-kami, you're hooked.
It must be very tough for Azrael to play mafia (I don't think we've actually seen it yet, in World Domination he was technically "neutral" and not part of the mafia) He has to go completely contrary to his own, normally sound instincts. And when someone proposes something which makes complete sense, he has to try and discredit it. Technically he doesn't have to discredit it, depending on how serious of a threat it is to the mafia, but in this case, where, if we are correct, the mafia is toast, he has no choice but to fight it.
The fact that he apparantly can't see that what we are doing is working wonderfully well, when he is very intelligent and should know better, is the single most telling point against him. That and his flagrant attack on me and Puzzle with absolutely no basis.
Sorry Az. Better luck next time.
What we WERE doing WAS working wonderfully well! That's why I wanted to continue it to it's logical end. For some reason, you do not.
I would highly endorse the vig-kill plan versus Axelrod, upon my death and revelation as a townie. Ready to gamble, Axel? A one for one trade is fine with me, how about you?
And where's that claim of yours, and your explanation? Why are you so reluctant to come forward and reveal? You seemed to suggest it would have some bearing on the current situation, so why not come out and clear things up for everyone, so they know they're doing the right thing? Unless, of course, they aren't...
Anyways, if you're townie, yes, it's not in your best interests to reveal what you're talking about if it will endanger the town. But you CAN step forward and at least clarify that remark, you're being far too vague. If you're townie, you also have an interest in shedding as much information on the situation as possible, to prevent a mis-lynch.
Hmm. It would be a little odd for the mafia NOT to decide to kill Blinking Spirit, once they found out he has a night role. That means he has some kind of power role. And if I were the mafia, I'd seriously have considered offing him by now. Course, they may have investigated Bateleur first, then decided to wait on Blinking Spirit till later, so that could be why. *shrugs*
Hmmm... this does speak in your favor, but your behavior emphatically does not. SK?
Uyo as the SK? *shrugs* If you say so. I can think of MUCH more flavorful choices.
I'm an experienced enough player to know NOT to stick my neck out and aggressively attack townies as scummy: generally all that does is create enemies, create attention, and risks backlash.
At the moment, the case against me is based on assumptions about my behavior: that my analysis is somehow "off", that I'm being "too aggressive", that I'm over compensating for yesterday's relative lack of analysis.
Unfortunately, behavioral evidence is the hardest to read, and the easiest to be misled by. That is precisely what we are experiencing at the moment.
Analytical, talkative posters tend to slip up as time goes on, if they are mafia. Analytical, talkative posters who are townies tend to be targets for the mafia, just I have been every single game so far. And sometimes, people are frightened enough of the possibility of a smart poster being mafia that they will lynch them out of paranoia.
I stand by my analysis that something not quite right is going on here, especially after the unified, full-scale backlash I'm struggling against now. I'm going to see what I can do to fight back and prevent the town from mis-lynching, but I'm afraid one voice only carries so much weight.
I may have made a mistake by engaging everyone at once, biting off more than I can chew, but we'll see.
But, in the spirit of openness and making as many enemies as I can in case I'm on the way out, I'd like to remind the town that Blinking Spirit isn't necessarily cleared by his night action not having an apparent effect. He could easily be a non-vanilla member of the mafia, a protective role, a role-blocker, or an investigator. *shrugs* Just something to keep in the back of your minds.
Quote from Axelrod »
I am just itching to role-claim. It would be soooo easy to shoot him down. But, it can wait.
Are you suggesting that if you claimed, my own role-claim would somehow be discredited? If that's your intention, kindly make it clear. If not, then why did you say that?
*sighs* I wish I hadn't decided not to make the "I'll bet you my entire card collection I'm not scum" play, anymore, for virtue of its unfairness to the mafia.
Of course, if you guys are of a mind to think that's fair and permissible, I could try running that gambit one more time, IF the mod is willing to allow it.
I had meant "I never said this was game related flavour".
Right now, I'm extremely suspicious of Azrael. He's trying to push us into a situation that could easily backfire on us, giving the Mafia the opportunity to not only find the important roles, but also to false-claim without any fear.
Any time we finger a mafia member, and put pressure on them, they have the opportunity to false claim. What makes this situation any different? What is the inherent advantage that they would get in this situation, over another?
There isn't one. They DO NOT have the opportunity to false claim "without fear", they have an excellent chance of being nailed by this.
As for my own claim and innocence, I was the first person to establish a name claim within the thread, before if I could possibly know whether or not there was a townie named Uyo, if I was mafia. Perhaps I'm being overly aggressive now that we might have something, perhaps not. But if I was mafia, I would have been running an awful risk of being first-day lynched by volunteering my name of my own accord.
Uyo is a legend that is prominent, flavorful, and easily COULD translate into an ability. If I was mafia, I'd have been making the same kind of mistake as Armlx did, only worse: mine came even before name claims were being forced, and I would have had every reason in the world to keep it under cover and not subject myself to the risk of being nailed.
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
What is this? Only living townies win, Azrael. I'm for playing it cautiously, no matter how seemingly we have the mafia in a rout.
Only living townies win? Depends on the mod's specific rules, I suppose, that changes from game to game. That's certainly not my own mindset: if the town wins, the town wins. Period. But if the town wants to win with as few townies dead as possible, we'll want to win as quickly as possible.
What are you saying here? Are you agreeing or disagreeing with others' assessments of his likely investigation target?
You (and Axelrod) claimed he indicated that he trusted Puzzle in his initial post, making Puzzle his likely investigation target. This is not true: simply examine his post.
Quote from blinking Spirit »
Definitely include LJustus, if you must, but I must still caution against this, because it might be difficult to make name claims without ability claims for some. I have a few ideas about what your ability might be already.
We can risk taking some collateral damage, now that our cop is already dead, and the rest of our roles are relatively expendable.
Quote from blinking spirit »
Wait, why shouldn't vigs be firing normally? Then what use are they beyond normal townies? And didn't you read my caution against complacency? This paragraph seems designed to inspire complacency in the town.
Vigs should almost never fire unless they have EXTREMELY reliable judgment, or the town has requested vig fire on an especially suspicious poster. Otherwise, the town ends up taking collateral damage and losing innocents, statistically.
Firstly: I am a non-spirit legendary creature with converted mana cost three or less.
Secondly: Please be aware that this is my first Mafia game (and, indeed, my first post). I say this not because I plan to be incompetent, but because my strategy will doubtless seem a little odd to some of you. In particular, master players (and there are more than a couple here - I have followed your other games) may be tempted to jump to swift conclusions. Consider yourself warned - I make errors as all players do, but I never speak foolish words.
First let me make clear that I am open minded at this point as we must all be at this early stage. Truly, I am ready to condemn nobody and it is only Puzzle I trust. His plan seems very likely to bring at least a small advantage.
But let me set aside our ongoing plan for the moment, to quote the words of another amongst us, the renowned Axelrod.
Ah, now that's an interesting thing to say. It interests me because as matters were described to me there could be no doubt whatsoever that the spirits were our enemy. How, then, could such confusion arise ? Simple: the Kami would have seen a different form of briefing, is it not so ?
That, too, is interesting. Blinking Spirit conjectured that Azrael was targetted by the Kami and by the Doctor. Possible. Yet Axelrod's mock offense takes no account of the possibility that Azrael is a Kami and Axelrod himself was saved by the Doctor. Very probably an innocent omission, but on the other hand if he were a Kami then he would know he was not himself targetted.
This is not suspicious at all. I merely wanted to note that if Axelrod were a Kami then this would be an elegant ploy. The Kami can kill Blinking Spirit during the next night and when he turns out to be a non-Kami this appears to strengthen Axelrod's credibility.
I have said enough, except that for now, I shall:
Vote: Axelrod
I hope I have made it clear why.
Where does it say that Bateleur trusted Puzzle, in his first post? Ah hah. I see.
Second, name-claims ARE in our favor, provided the most scummy of us claim first, which puts the scum at risk for false claims. I can amend my request to include Ljustus, if you wish, I don't think we'll see any harm done by that.
We don't need to worry about losing Vigs (they shouldn't be firing at anyone normally anyways), or even the doctor, not with 2 scum down by day 2 and the rest neatly trapped into false claims which might flush them out into the open. As long as we keep trading one for one or even two for one, like last night, we'll ride this game to victory one way or another.
Even more unfortunately, Bateleur appears to have been a Cop. My guess, Puzzle was the one bateleur investigated night one, based on the way he was saying he trusted Puzzle and no one else in his first post.
If this is correct, however, it means the mafia missed another kill. Hee Hee.
It also means three more people off my list:
Azrael
Hawkeye7
Dusk
Swinkee
LJustus
Jon (note to Puzzle: Jon's still on my list, even though he appears to not be Kami, because, with that claim, he could easily be the SK)
Yeah, if my grand conspiracy theory is correct, this would also seem to support it. If Puzzle and Axel are scum working together, it'd make wonderful sense to suggest that Puzzle might have been investigated by Bat, and give him a potential out. These two seem to be doing a nice job of working in tandem.
Also note: neither Puzzle or Evil are on his "list" of suspcious persons.
Lastly, reasoning such as "Pibbly is looking pretty straight to me too." does not constitute a valid process of elimination. To sucessfully use that method, you need solid, factual evidence, not general impressions which are incredibly unreliable, and easy for mafia to fabricate.
The list is invalid, and there are too many warning signs popping up about these posters in my mind, specifically Axel and Puzzle.
I definitely would like some full name claims out of those two, plus Evil on the side.
My post about your potential scummyness is perfectly justitified. note that i'm not saying that you are scum mearly that your posting behavious has been uncharacteristic of you. And now that we have applied pressure to you begin analyzing and posting like you normally do. This may be due to new found information or perhaps due to the pressure being applied. regardless... if you are a townie we need you to be active and apply your analytical skills, which it appears you are now doing...
And the pressure on LJustus makes sense as well. axelrod(whose analytical abilities we respect) posted a list of potentially scummy people. We logically have narrowed the list done to pople we can pressure with the lowest chance of reveal vital info. That is not to say that it is an infallable plan or that axel isn't scummy, it is, however the most formulated and best thought out plan we have at the moment.I was applying pressure to them to add weight to the plan, for if any plan goes unsupported it fails
As for his trust of axel and I, I have no idea where that came from.
Talk about a comedy of errors. That includes myself, btw.
*returns to being dead*
Any one of you could (or can) look up that game. The information was available for anyone who cared to look.
Apparently, rationality is in the eye of the beholder.
I think it would be very rash to speak on Axel's behalf like that. You're at least as great a candidate as him.
Pffft. I'm heading straight for the gallows, i've got nothing to lose or gain, unless I'm townie.
I already debunked the reasoning that would "clear" you for being a townie. You're no more cleared than the rest of us, the only thing we know is that you have a night role of some kind.
Good.
However, I didn't limit my attack to him. Since you're the one pushing for this so violently, naturally my suspicions are moving towards you more strongly.
And I have to wonder, why the reluctance to take that risk yourself? Why not pose it as a "if I'm wrong, the vig kills me", instead of a "if I'm wrong, the vig kills axelrod"? If you're 100% confident in your analysis, why not take the bet?
Indeed it does.
Enjoy fighting for your life, pal.
Still the town should hash out exactly what course of action is going to be taken upon my death, if I'm about to die.
Axel, I still want clarification.
Blinking Spirit and Axel, I still would a commitment to claim at the LATEST by tomorrow morning, upon my revelation as innocent.
Mafia proper who claimed Uyo the Silent Prophey on day one? Right.
My response depends on the quality of the argument I'm facing, and the persons making it. When dealing with analysts, I tend to go for calm and rational responses.
Ugh. This is quite the dilemma. Should the vigilante kill Axel, or should he kill you, upon my death? Perhaps both, in sequence? Odds are, one of you is scum.
Course, the real mafia might be playing it smart and letting the town commit suicide, too.
Hardly. But odds are, at least one of them is pushing this along.
Is it you?
Why don't both you and Axel claim either tonight, before I might be hitting the gallows, to give the vig more information to make a decision, OR, at the beginning of tomorrow's day, after it's been conclusively revealed I was innocent?
Why would Axel be scum, rather than one of the other supporters? Are you trying to two-for-one two of our strongest analysts?
Ah, the sweet, sweet, irony.
What we WERE doing WAS working wonderfully well! That's why I wanted to continue it to it's logical end. For some reason, you do not.
I would highly endorse the vig-kill plan versus Axelrod, upon my death and revelation as a townie. Ready to gamble, Axel? A one for one trade is fine with me, how about you?
And where's that claim of yours, and your explanation? Why are you so reluctant to come forward and reveal? You seemed to suggest it would have some bearing on the current situation, so why not come out and clear things up for everyone, so they know they're doing the right thing? Unless, of course, they aren't...
Anyways, if you're townie, yes, it's not in your best interests to reveal what you're talking about if it will endanger the town. But you CAN step forward and at least clarify that remark, you're being far too vague. If you're townie, you also have an interest in shedding as much information on the situation as possible, to prevent a mis-lynch.
Uyo as the SK? *shrugs* If you say so. I can think of MUCH more flavorful choices.
I'm an experienced enough player to know NOT to stick my neck out and aggressively attack townies as scummy: generally all that does is create enemies, create attention, and risks backlash.
At the moment, the case against me is based on assumptions about my behavior: that my analysis is somehow "off", that I'm being "too aggressive", that I'm over compensating for yesterday's relative lack of analysis.
Unfortunately, behavioral evidence is the hardest to read, and the easiest to be misled by. That is precisely what we are experiencing at the moment.
Analytical, talkative posters tend to slip up as time goes on, if they are mafia. Analytical, talkative posters who are townies tend to be targets for the mafia, just I have been every single game so far. And sometimes, people are frightened enough of the possibility of a smart poster being mafia that they will lynch them out of paranoia.
I stand by my analysis that something not quite right is going on here, especially after the unified, full-scale backlash I'm struggling against now. I'm going to see what I can do to fight back and prevent the town from mis-lynching, but I'm afraid one voice only carries so much weight.
I may have made a mistake by engaging everyone at once, biting off more than I can chew, but we'll see.
But, in the spirit of openness and making as many enemies as I can in case I'm on the way out, I'd like to remind the town that Blinking Spirit isn't necessarily cleared by his night action not having an apparent effect. He could easily be a non-vanilla member of the mafia, a protective role, a role-blocker, or an investigator. *shrugs* Just something to keep in the back of your minds.
Are you suggesting that if you claimed, my own role-claim would somehow be discredited? If that's your intention, kindly make it clear. If not, then why did you say that?
*sighs* I wish I hadn't decided not to make the "I'll bet you my entire card collection I'm not scum" play, anymore, for virtue of its unfairness to the mafia.
Of course, if you guys are of a mind to think that's fair and permissible, I could try running that gambit one more time, IF the mod is willing to allow it.
Any time we finger a mafia member, and put pressure on them, they have the opportunity to false claim. What makes this situation any different? What is the inherent advantage that they would get in this situation, over another?
There isn't one. They DO NOT have the opportunity to false claim "without fear", they have an excellent chance of being nailed by this.
As for my own claim and innocence, I was the first person to establish a name claim within the thread, before if I could possibly know whether or not there was a townie named Uyo, if I was mafia. Perhaps I'm being overly aggressive now that we might have something, perhaps not. But if I was mafia, I would have been running an awful risk of being first-day lynched by volunteering my name of my own accord.
Uyo is a legend that is prominent, flavorful, and easily COULD translate into an ability. If I was mafia, I'd have been making the same kind of mistake as Armlx did, only worse: mine came even before name claims were being forced, and I would have had every reason in the world to keep it under cover and not subject myself to the risk of being nailed.
Only living townies win? Depends on the mod's specific rules, I suppose, that changes from game to game. That's certainly not my own mindset: if the town wins, the town wins. Period. But if the town wants to win with as few townies dead as possible, we'll want to win as quickly as possible.
You (and Axelrod) claimed he indicated that he trusted Puzzle in his initial post, making Puzzle his likely investigation target. This is not true: simply examine his post.
We can risk taking some collateral damage, now that our cop is already dead, and the rest of our roles are relatively expendable.
Vigs should almost never fire unless they have EXTREMELY reliable judgment, or the town has requested vig fire on an especially suspicious poster. Otherwise, the town ends up taking collateral damage and losing innocents, statistically.
EDIT: And to clarify: I think this will be the fastest, most effective way.
Where does it say that Bateleur trusted Puzzle, in his first post? Ah hah. I see.
Second, name-claims ARE in our favor, provided the most scummy of us claim first, which puts the scum at risk for false claims. I can amend my request to include Ljustus, if you wish, I don't think we'll see any harm done by that.
We don't need to worry about losing Vigs (they shouldn't be firing at anyone normally anyways), or even the doctor, not with 2 scum down by day 2 and the rest neatly trapped into false claims which might flush them out into the open. As long as we keep trading one for one or even two for one, like last night, we'll ride this game to victory one way or another.
Yeah, if my grand conspiracy theory is correct, this would also seem to support it. If Puzzle and Axel are scum working together, it'd make wonderful sense to suggest that Puzzle might have been investigated by Bat, and give him a potential out. These two seem to be doing a nice job of working in tandem.
Also note: neither Puzzle or Evil are on his "list" of suspcious persons.
Lastly, reasoning such as "Pibbly is looking pretty straight to me too." does not constitute a valid process of elimination. To sucessfully use that method, you need solid, factual evidence, not general impressions which are incredibly unreliable, and easy for mafia to fabricate.
The list is invalid, and there are too many warning signs popping up about these posters in my mind, specifically Axel and Puzzle.
I definitely would like some full name claims out of those two, plus Evil on the side.
Fair enough. Mind name claiming?