As detailed earlier, thought I might have detected a bit of that in her complaining about the Tammy read.
Hmm.
HR, Cuth, Boom, Bessie.
HR Cuth Bessie Vaimes.
HR Cuth Vaimes Boom.
HR Cuth Sloth Vaimes
A few other possibilities if I'm wrong about Bur, Bessie, or some other slot and getting suckered.
Please note, I think the HR and Cuth slots are pretty much locks in any scenario, and I would love to take out at least one of those with today's shot.
HR - appreciate the time you took to insert an "if they have a vit-based kill" following your "never going to happen". Appreciate your well-informed perspective on the mafia's capabilities, as always.
I don't suppose you'd mind sharing just how much for the mafia kill takes, so we can determine just how tough it is for you to take out LW, which makes it ever so much more important that we townies do it for you?
Does no one else find it suspicious both Bur and HR want the town to expend one of our last few lynches before lylo on a neutral? And that HR doesn't want us to even try to double lynch and to lock in the mislynch an entire day early?
The best way to deal with LW is not be so close to lylo at all, by actually hitting scum. I'd rather he win, than them.
That only proves your ability, it doesn’t really move the needle on your alignment. You keep saying things that seem reasonable but when I think about them I can’t help but notice the other less charitable interpretations.
unvote Az
I need to think about this
That's correct. I wasn't trying to imply that it was a terribly useful data point, and as I said in my full claim, it's only half-true that it's even confirmable. But I make no assumptions about people trying to use doubt that I have the ability I claim as a point for a lynch, worse arguments (such as that the town should just give up on a 2nd lynch) are being made as we speak.
I did answer that already. Spent a few paragraphs on that answer.
If I sound like a motivational speaker on repeat, it's because it isn't having any effect. I've done my game solve, and if I have more time I can go into further detail/revise, but I can't summon up four or five votes on the correct targets by myself. This is a team game. And I'm trying to help my team not be quite so resigned to inertia itself to mislynch and death.
I think the only way anyone is going to get more clarity, either on me or any of the other slots, is doing some hard analysis work.
There's some value in just talking out loud and processing where we're at, but if confusion is the order of the day, going over your question mark slots would be my advice.
Sometimes going after lurkers is a death trap for the town - but sometimes that's just where the scum are. But the nice thing about those lurker slots, if you do have questions about them, they don't take as much time to read up on.
We each have some thoughts and theories and fears in common surrounding what the scum's strategy is re: my lynch, although neither of you are completely clear on what you're looking at. But what is absolutely clear regardless of where you land on my alignment is that the scum very much want players who are trying to figure things out dead, based on that kill pattern. They don't want analysis taking place. They don't want to be figured out.
We shouldn't be so hard up for analysis that losing one more slot completely details us. Not unless everyone just gives up and phones it in. But the more that analysts gets targeted, the more everybody else has to step up and fill the gap.
They're banking on that not happening right now. Don't let them win that way.
I'm not saying throw out doing any roleclaim analysis. But if the argument is "this role can't exist, there's too many!" you can shoot enough holes in that to start grating cheese.
This town is in a tailspin, and the only way out is through research and analysis. The whole town needs to pull together and commit, or it's over. You have the evidence you need, it just has to be gathered and harnessed. Things look pretty grim, but it's not over yet.
In addition, none of the roles we've had claimed are all that powerful, they're all partial utility. There was someone who doesn't power up until they have more vit that protects just a single slot, a bulletproof, and what was realistically 1-2 shot jailer in Kennit. What else? If anything, this implies a design philosophy of diffused protective power rather than the swinginess of a traditional doctor. But again, why are we trying to modgame Grape's design philosophy instead of actually playing? You can speculate endlessly, and ultimately you're not going to know what his design philosophy was.
Vaimes, I think you asked for my notes on Sloth. I don't particularly have notes beyond what I've already posted, but I'd did analyze him in my read through a multiple times. Did you catch those?
Heard someone mention HR's protective role also - what was it?
Don't think this is a terribly great line of thinking though. Mod could well have decided that the scum plus third parties represented enough killing power that the town needed more protection than usual. We've got the vit thief, LW, and the mafia kill on top of that, and protection roles are very inconsistent on whether they hit. None of them have worked so far - hardly feel like we're overpowered on that front.
Also, in before another classic role analysis mislynch. How is it that towns never learn to avoid the same tragic pitfalls that they've been falling into for fifteen years? Yes, behavioral analysis takes more homework, but it's so much more accurate.
If you really doubt the provable claim, send LW or some other unclaimed town vig after me.
Ellipses was w/r/t Vaimes' votes at end of previous page.
So, some actual movement and life, that's encouraging. Was worried this was going to continue to be tumbleweed.
Vaimes, I completely agree with your gamestate read as far as my wagon, but I feel like there's this underlying gut sense that the town has this very wrong/is on the ropes that is leading you (and others) to think this game is harder than just lynching lurkers.
Looking at these guys' posting history, I really don't think it is. As you said, that was a negative space read for you. Looking at what they actually have posted and done when they are here, I absolutely hate it. The only reason they've survives to this point is the town is squirreling this game up and getting distracted by shiny objects.
Happy to indulge and talk over Sloth/Anak with you if that's helpful, but I think your instincts that this is a paranoid cliff jump out of you is 100 percent on target.
I mean, maybe not Sloth. Just because I saw differences between his two games doesn't mean they're AI differences, I suppose. It's certainly not unheard of for me get all happy and game-solve-y after pinpointing 2-4 scum and still miss one in my process. But, again, having looked at his actual posts and compared them to the axis of evil, I'm just not seeing that as the percentage play for today.
Bur not only has no will to play, he's not reading people when he's here.
HR has mentioned reads, but the vast, vast majority of his time is just spent arguing with people about useless crap to look busier than he would otherwise be. That's his gimmick, his crutch.
Cuth, seems like you saw a bit of it there, but if you need more, I can look for more. But what townie literally says I have strong feelings about these slots, and then doesn't explain that at all, and runs away from the thread? And then comes back and spends all his time talking on safe ground, the neutral claim? Take that in conjunction with the rat of his history, and it's NOT good.
Insufficient radar pinging due to excessive lurking.
As detailed earlier, thought I might have detected a bit of that in her complaining about the Tammy read.
Hmm.
HR, Cuth, Boom, Bessie.
HR Cuth Bessie Vaimes.
HR Cuth Vaimes Boom.
HR Cuth Sloth Vaimes
A few other possibilities if I'm wrong about Bur, Bessie, or some other slot and getting suckered.
Please note, I think the HR and Cuth slots are pretty much locks in any scenario, and I would love to take out at least one of those with today's shot.
I don't suppose you'd mind sharing just how much for the mafia kill takes, so we can determine just how tough it is for you to take out LW, which makes it ever so much more important that we townies do it for you?
The best way to deal with LW is not be so close to lylo at all, by actually hitting scum. I'd rather he win, than them.
I don't think we're as low on options as some fear, but we can't sleep on that data with less than 24 hrs left.
That's correct. I wasn't trying to imply that it was a terribly useful data point, and as I said in my full claim, it's only half-true that it's even confirmable. But I make no assumptions about people trying to use doubt that I have the ability I claim as a point for a lynch, worse arguments (such as that the town should just give up on a 2nd lynch) are being made as we speak.
If I sound like a motivational speaker on repeat, it's because it isn't having any effect. I've done my game solve, and if I have more time I can go into further detail/revise, but I can't summon up four or five votes on the correct targets by myself. This is a team game. And I'm trying to help my team not be quite so resigned to inertia itself to mislynch and death.
There's some value in just talking out loud and processing where we're at, but if confusion is the order of the day, going over your question mark slots would be my advice.
Sometimes going after lurkers is a death trap for the town - but sometimes that's just where the scum are. But the nice thing about those lurker slots, if you do have questions about them, they don't take as much time to read up on.
We each have some thoughts and theories and fears in common surrounding what the scum's strategy is re: my lynch, although neither of you are completely clear on what you're looking at. But what is absolutely clear regardless of where you land on my alignment is that the scum very much want players who are trying to figure things out dead, based on that kill pattern. They don't want analysis taking place. They don't want to be figured out.
We shouldn't be so hard up for analysis that losing one more slot completely details us. Not unless everyone just gives up and phones it in. But the more that analysts gets targeted, the more everybody else has to step up and fill the gap.
They're banking on that not happening right now. Don't let them win that way.
This town is in a tailspin, and the only way out is through research and analysis. The whole town needs to pull together and commit, or it's over. You have the evidence you need, it just has to be gathered and harnessed. Things look pretty grim, but it's not over yet.
Vaimes, I think you asked for my notes on Sloth. I don't particularly have notes beyond what I've already posted, but I'd did analyze him in my read through a multiple times. Did you catch those?
Don't think this is a terribly great line of thinking though. Mod could well have decided that the scum plus third parties represented enough killing power that the town needed more protection than usual. We've got the vit thief, LW, and the mafia kill on top of that, and protection roles are very inconsistent on whether they hit. None of them have worked so far - hardly feel like we're overpowered on that front.
If you really doubt the provable claim, send LW or some other unclaimed town vig after me.
So, some actual movement and life, that's encouraging. Was worried this was going to continue to be tumbleweed.
Vaimes, I completely agree with your gamestate read as far as my wagon, but I feel like there's this underlying gut sense that the town has this very wrong/is on the ropes that is leading you (and others) to think this game is harder than just lynching lurkers.
Looking at these guys' posting history, I really don't think it is. As you said, that was a negative space read for you. Looking at what they actually have posted and done when they are here, I absolutely hate it. The only reason they've survives to this point is the town is squirreling this game up and getting distracted by shiny objects.
Happy to indulge and talk over Sloth/Anak with you if that's helpful, but I think your instincts that this is a paranoid cliff jump out of you is 100 percent on target.
I mean, maybe not Sloth. Just because I saw differences between his two games doesn't mean they're AI differences, I suppose. It's certainly not unheard of for me get all happy and game-solve-y after pinpointing 2-4 scum and still miss one in my process. But, again, having looked at his actual posts and compared them to the axis of evil, I'm just not seeing that as the percentage play for today.
Bur not only has no will to play, he's not reading people when he's here.
HR has mentioned reads, but the vast, vast majority of his time is just spent arguing with people about useless crap to look busier than he would otherwise be. That's his gimmick, his crutch.
Cuth, seems like you saw a bit of it there, but if you need more, I can look for more. But what townie literally says I have strong feelings about these slots, and then doesn't explain that at all, and runs away from the thread? And then comes back and spends all his time talking on safe ground, the neutral claim? Take that in conjunction with the rat of his history, and it's NOT good.