Dazbog's claim was not too bad because he had a major power role (cop), could count on protection as such, and could use it to prove he was townie, as no one counter-claimed.
Every situation is different, but it is generally not good to give away our role too much if not necessary.
But on the other hand, you could argue that Dazbog's claim was a huge mistake, because it locked down the doctor and left all our confirmed townies and analysts utterly exposed.
Second, there's the reason that I cited for not outright claiming in Battlestar: the more early ability claims we get, the higher the odds that the mafia can hit home on our power roles.
@Batelur: I understand you may not have wanted to lynch Axel outright, but the reasons you raised to suspect him wouldn't normally rate even a FOS. You were definitely over-analyzing that post, and jumping at shadows, there. Or, you may have been doing that on purpose. That remains to be seen.
As for "subliminal claims", my own information is already ready to be cited, if need be.
However, according to the statistics, we have so many Legends that for them to be backed into a corner will require us to narrow things down by a hell of a lot, and if it does get to that point, the Mafia would also have a pretty clear idea of who has what role.
The benefit is, it's easier for the town to present clues and information about their true capabilities and role info than it is for the mafia to invent it sucessfully. Though we won't want to give enough specific information that our roles are given away quite yet, we can pin them down a bit and give them less wiggle room, cut down on their choices of false claims.
As long as our power roles aren't revealed, we've got nothing to lose by putting early pressure on them and locking them in.
I'd discuss some of the other possible benefits out loud, but doing so would probably more or less nullify them, so, yeah.
This is not suspicious at all. I merely wanted to note that if Axelrod were a Kami then this would be an elegant ploy. The Kami can kill Blinking Spirit during the next night and when he turns out to be a non-Kami this appears to strengthen Axelrod's credibility.
I have said enough, except that for now, I shall:
Vote: Axelrod
I hope I have made it clear why.
If we apply that standard to every post, every assumption, every hypothesis put forth, then everyone in the game would eventually come under suspicion every time they come up with a point that eventually turns out to be correct.
Axelrod coming out to defend Blinking Spirit and point out that he's probably in fairly good shape, is just as likely to be a townie move as an intelligent mafia move, perhaps more so. Why should we possibly consider this as a suspicious move?? If Blinking Spirit HAD been killed, that comment would only be a minor point in his favor, if anything. There would be other factors that would be MUCH more relevant in our assessment of Axel's guilt than this comment.
If this was an attempted mafia gambit, it would be largely ineffective. If this was Axel as a townie stepping forward to make a worthwhile point about a member of the town, then he did us some good.
Quote from Puzzle »
Fair enough, Bateleur, but you are already dissecting other people's words. Yuo should be more careful, else you'll end up as popular as me... :biggrin3:
That said, I do agree on your analysis and find your points quite valid. It is far from enough to warrant a lynch, but it would feel sad for someone who begins not to be supported, so Vote Axelrod.
You see, Axelrod, here's some love at last ;).
However, at this point, I think we should still go on with the claim as a priority.
Batelur is still new and inexperienced, an unknown quantity that I'll be watching very closely. But you-you i'd expect to look a great deal harder at the evidence before jumping recklessly forward to create a 2nd vote on one of our top posters. The case against him was incredibly illogical, not even worthy of a FOS.
You unvoted after no one else hopped on, and Axel fired back in regards to another faulty segment of Batelur's posting, but I'm really surprised that you considered that a basis for a vote at all. Batelur has been overly aggressive, already trying to fabricate a case where he has no real evidence, and I'd have expected someone with your experience to see the holes in his reasoning.
Why didn't you? Why did you choose to back him up, instead?
Hmmm. It's a bit early to start claiming, but it's also true we'll be able to lock the mafia into claims nice and early, hopefully before they're ready.
My question is, how far are we going to take this? Are we going to stop at claiming color or casting cost, or continue on and lock them into name-claims, as well?
As for me, my casting cost is >=4, and I'm a non-spirit.
Without any "energy objects" nearby?? Can we get a clarification on that?
And what state is the corpse in? How does it appear ink-eyes was killed? Stabbed, exploded, slit throat, or what?
Quote from Blinking Spirit »
My fault for the holdup - sorry.
A kami with the ability to conceal its evidence, so as to throw suspicion on some other agent, is not out of the question, but I seriously doubt it - from what I've seen on other Mafia games, roles don't screw around with people's minds that thoroughly.
The vigilante would have to be pretty dumb to fire at random, but again, it's not out of the question.
My theory, though, is that this is an SK kill. Doctor protection thwarted the Mafia (my guess is Azrael as the target, just because he's the target of everything). Seems most likely by far, as it doesn't rely on a dumb vigilante or a really, really twisted mafia role.
I'm not as up on Kamigawa block or its story as I'd like - who'd make a good SK? Toshiro Umezawa? One of the ogres? As a matter of fact, wouldn't an ogre be a good fit for my first theory - a Mafia who leaves non-Mafia evidence? Probably a bit early to be thinking about that sort of thing just yet.
Do we know if Ink-Eyes had any other abilities, or was she just a mason?
An ogre would fit nicely as a SK (gutwrencher oni, for instance, eh LJustus?), but I'm not sure how many legendary ogres there are. There are a lot of other black legends out there that might fit the bill.
Ink-eyes was probably just a mason. Usually they don't gain any additional abilities.
You're probably right about one of the killing groups targeting me, too, since everybody usually does.
Hmmm. Alright. I'm going to play the odds and tell LJustus that he should find my current role name VERY familiar, from Mafia: the Gathering, except that my abilities (or lack thereof) differ greatly.
So, as far as I can tell, we're all playing legends here? Can anyone who's a non-legend step forward and volunteer this?
Also, if we have any BoKers, can we confirm that as well?
I'd like to narrow down the mafia's possible list of claims as soon as possible. If we're lucky, the limited selection should make it very, very easy to spot false claims. If we're even more lucky, we might even be able to get away with a full claim at some point, depending on the number of existing legends in CoK. That's something I'll have to look into, once we establish what we're dealing with.
Lastly, Prizm, can you give us an indicator what Ink-Eyes' alignment was, just in case Silicon was neutral or SK or something?
There seems to be a lot of people interested in mafia games. In fact more than the number of places we have for everyone in current games.
Couldn't we allow more games to be run simultaneously, particularly if there are <15 people setups, and limit everyone to maximum 2 games at once, modding included ?
Given the popularity of the threads, I agree. At least 3 games running concurrently are needed to meet the current demand for slots, possibly more.
I did that.
I had no idea you were the SK and I wanted to make Azrael look suspicious by making someone I thought was an innocent opponent of Azrael get killed for opposing him.
We had a good idea that Azrael would be protected night one and possibly night two so we chose other players for night kills. When he claimed to be immune to night kills we tries to direct suspicion on him.
Only problem with your strategy was that you really didn't have strong grounds to take me out, and your attack on me forced me to retaliate with greater force than you could bring to bear. If you could have lain low and let things develop naturally, I think you would have had a better chance. The mafia generally shouldn't try to go out of their way to lynch helpful analysts, it can backfire too easily.
But on the other hand, you could argue that Dazbog's claim was a huge mistake, because it locked down the doctor and left all our confirmed townies and analysts utterly exposed.
Second, there's the reason that I cited for not outright claiming in Battlestar: the more early ability claims we get, the higher the odds that the mafia can hit home on our power roles.
@Batelur: I understand you may not have wanted to lynch Axel outright, but the reasons you raised to suspect him wouldn't normally rate even a FOS. You were definitely over-analyzing that post, and jumping at shadows, there. Or, you may have been doing that on purpose. That remains to be seen.
As for "subliminal claims", my own information is already ready to be cited, if need be.
The benefit is, it's easier for the town to present clues and information about their true capabilities and role info than it is for the mafia to invent it sucessfully. Though we won't want to give enough specific information that our roles are given away quite yet, we can pin them down a bit and give them less wiggle room, cut down on their choices of false claims.
As long as our power roles aren't revealed, we've got nothing to lose by putting early pressure on them and locking them in.
I'd discuss some of the other possible benefits out loud, but doing so would probably more or less nullify them, so, yeah.
If we apply that standard to every post, every assumption, every hypothesis put forth, then everyone in the game would eventually come under suspicion every time they come up with a point that eventually turns out to be correct.
Axelrod coming out to defend Blinking Spirit and point out that he's probably in fairly good shape, is just as likely to be a townie move as an intelligent mafia move, perhaps more so. Why should we possibly consider this as a suspicious move?? If Blinking Spirit HAD been killed, that comment would only be a minor point in his favor, if anything. There would be other factors that would be MUCH more relevant in our assessment of Axel's guilt than this comment.
If this was an attempted mafia gambit, it would be largely ineffective. If this was Axel as a townie stepping forward to make a worthwhile point about a member of the town, then he did us some good.
Batelur is still new and inexperienced, an unknown quantity that I'll be watching very closely. But you-you i'd expect to look a great deal harder at the evidence before jumping recklessly forward to create a 2nd vote on one of our top posters. The case against him was incredibly illogical, not even worthy of a FOS.
You unvoted after no one else hopped on, and Axel fired back in regards to another faulty segment of Batelur's posting, but I'm really surprised that you considered that a basis for a vote at all. Batelur has been overly aggressive, already trying to fabricate a case where he has no real evidence, and I'd have expected someone with your experience to see the holes in his reasoning.
Why didn't you? Why did you choose to back him up, instead?
My question is, how far are we going to take this? Are we going to stop at claiming color or casting cost, or continue on and lock them into name-claims, as well?
As for me, my casting cost is >=4, and I'm a non-spirit.
And what state is the corpse in? How does it appear ink-eyes was killed? Stabbed, exploded, slit throat, or what?
An ogre would fit nicely as a SK (gutwrencher oni, for instance, eh LJustus?), but I'm not sure how many legendary ogres there are. There are a lot of other black legends out there that might fit the bill.
Ink-eyes was probably just a mason. Usually they don't gain any additional abilities.
You're probably right about one of the killing groups targeting me, too, since everybody usually does.
Derf. Derf. Anyways, yeah. Nvm. *goes back to "sleep"*
So, as far as I can tell, we're all playing legends here? Can anyone who's a non-legend step forward and volunteer this?
Also, if we have any BoKers, can we confirm that as well?
I'd like to narrow down the mafia's possible list of claims as soon as possible. If we're lucky, the limited selection should make it very, very easy to spot false claims. If we're even more lucky, we might even be able to get away with a full claim at some point, depending on the number of existing legends in CoK. That's something I'll have to look into, once we establish what we're dealing with.
Lastly, Prizm, can you give us an indicator what Ink-Eyes' alignment was, just in case Silicon was neutral or SK or something?
I appreciate the sentiment, but I think you're a little too late. :winky:
Given the popularity of the threads, I agree. At least 3 games running concurrently are needed to meet the current demand for slots, possibly more.
See you in the Kamigawa game.
Only problem with your strategy was that you really didn't have strong grounds to take me out, and your attack on me forced me to retaliate with greater force than you could bring to bear. If you could have lain low and let things develop naturally, I think you would have had a better chance. The mafia generally shouldn't try to go out of their way to lynch helpful analysts, it can backfire too easily.