Now, we are talking about 5 boxes, which is 120 packs. It has nothing to do with rares on a sheet. so out of those 120 packs, there will be 15 mythics and 105 rares based on the assumption of 1 mythic in every 8th rare slot. Again, nothing to do with how many rares are on a sheet as you're not buying sheets, you're buying packs where every 8th pack has 1 mythic instead of a rare.
We suggested 119/120 because of the 120 packs, only one of them will have a specific mythic so you have 119 packs that do not contain that mythic.
I got 18.1955%. Agreed though that it should be 1-(119/120)^24.
EDIT: accounting for foils in a similar fashion... 1-(228/229)^24 = 9.97% chance of pulling any given foil mythic in a box... That is assuming the likely of each foil in a pack is the same for all rarities... not sure if that is the case or not
I would imagine foils will be the same distribution as non-foils meaning for every 10 common foils there will be 3 uncommon, 7/8 rare and 1/8 mythic. So that's ~112 packs for 1 foil mythic I believe. So 1 of each mythic would mean 1680 packs.
Again, I'm not a math nerd, just using common sense.
Does your calculation contemplate that every booster pack will have a foil instead of basic land?
No. We're strictly talking non-foil cards. For a mythic rare I doubt it would make the percentage that much higher. If someone knew the actual distribution for foils it could be added in though.
The odds of getting at least one of a given mythic in a box are 18.06% (assuming completely random pack distribution).
For those interested, the formula: 1-(120/121)^24
I'm no math nerd but I do know how to use a calculator. Your formula actually comes out to 19.8347% But really should it not be 1-(119/120)*24, which gives us exactly 20%.
I know it's exciting to open packs, but at these prices you're much better off just buying the singles you want rather than opening packs. 2 boxes of MM ($4-600), or 4 goyfs and some other stuff. Hmm...
If Vial drops it will be because it is only used in one reasonably known deck in the entire format so any increase in supply will hit it harder than other money uncommons.
Vial is a key card in both merfolk and goblins in legacy. Both of those decks are very competitive "budget" decks so that is what drives its price.
So I keep seeing top 8 lists with rakdos cackler and I don't understand how it is better than vexing devil. I know the whole "it's bad to give your opponent a choice" thing but how often does cackler really hit for more than 4?
the "options"
1. They take 4.
2. If they choose to leave the devil on the field it's because they have removal or some other way to deal with it. So what. You may force them to use a removal spell on the devil that if it were a cackler they would have held for a more formidable threat. If they have a blocker, well a cackler would have done no good either.
The only situation I can see the cackler being better is if you need to top deck a blocker or you're going to die, and they can just take the 4 damage and then kill you. If that's the case you were probably dead anyways.
The devil can level up experiment to a 3rd +1/+1 counter which I think is an added bonus.
Anyways, just curious if it was thought of and if so why it was shot down.
Sure if your not buying boxes at 60% of Retail like a store your profit margin is low. However where are you going to find a job that lets you work twenty* hours once every three months in order to get the money to buy a box?
I can make ebay listings during my lunch hour and then spent an evening wrapping up cards rather than playing a FNM. If I buy a generic box for $150** and sell 90% of those cards for $150 my profit is that 10% of cards I got for free.
*Minimum wage and box price vary by country so your personal calculation may differ.
** the aprox Local price
If there is anything I've learned of most magic players, the only thing they value less than money is their time.
Except if you don't want to crack packs, you can turn around right now and sell that $140 box for $220 on eBay. Well, last week you could. This week you can maybe get $195 as people are underselling the competition. Subtract 15% for fees.
On the other hand, once people find out what's in the set, boxes may go for $400. That's what Worldwake is going for now. So leaving aside Jace and Goyf, do you think the remaining cards in Modern Masters are going to be worth more or less than the remaining cards in Worldwake? Now imagine what a box of Modern Masters will be worth.
Do the math.
You are being way, way too optimistic. Making it "draftable" is WotCs way of warning people that there will be a bunch of junk in it too.
I have no idea how you get 18.06%
Your formula: 1-(120/121)*24
=1-0.9917355371900 * 24
=0.00826446280991 * 24
=0.19834710
=19.834710%
Now, we are talking about 5 boxes, which is 120 packs. It has nothing to do with rares on a sheet. so out of those 120 packs, there will be 15 mythics and 105 rares based on the assumption of 1 mythic in every 8th rare slot. Again, nothing to do with how many rares are on a sheet as you're not buying sheets, you're buying packs where every 8th pack has 1 mythic instead of a rare.
We suggested 119/120 because of the 120 packs, only one of them will have a specific mythic so you have 119 packs that do not contain that mythic.
Do you understand where we are going now?
I would imagine foils will be the same distribution as non-foils meaning for every 10 common foils there will be 3 uncommon, 7/8 rare and 1/8 mythic. So that's ~112 packs for 1 foil mythic I believe. So 1 of each mythic would mean 1680 packs.
Again, I'm not a math nerd, just using common sense.
No. We're strictly talking non-foil cards. For a mythic rare I doubt it would make the percentage that much higher. If someone knew the actual distribution for foils it could be added in though.
I'm no math nerd but I do know how to use a calculator. Your formula actually comes out to 19.8347% But really should it not be 1-(119/120)*24, which gives us exactly 20%.
He means 1 in 5 boxes not packs...1 goyf in every 120 packs, or 5 boxes.
I read May 27 somewhere.
Vial is a key card in both merfolk and goblins in legacy. Both of those decks are very competitive "budget" decks so that is what drives its price.
4 Falkenrath Aristocrat
4 Flinthoof Boar
4 Ghor-Clan Rampager
4 Gyre Sage
4 Thundermaw Hellkite
3 Varolz, the Scar-Striped
4 Vexing Devil
2 Clan defiance
2 mizzium mortars
2 Dreadbore
2 Dragonskull Summit
3 Forest
1 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Mountain
4 Overgrown Tomb
2 Rootbound Crag
4 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
2 dreadbore
1 clan defiance
4 creamte
4 fog
1 putrefy
1 gaze of granite
1 ?
Scavenging a vexing devil onto just about anything is pretty satisfying, esp gyre sage. BTE and the boar also good scavenge targets.
Through your opponents show and tell.
the "options"
1. They take 4.
2. If they choose to leave the devil on the field it's because they have removal or some other way to deal with it. So what. You may force them to use a removal spell on the devil that if it were a cackler they would have held for a more formidable threat. If they have a blocker, well a cackler would have done no good either.
The only situation I can see the cackler being better is if you need to top deck a blocker or you're going to die, and they can just take the 4 damage and then kill you. If that's the case you were probably dead anyways.
The devil can level up experiment to a 3rd +1/+1 counter which I think is an added bonus.
Anyways, just curious if it was thought of and if so why it was shot down.
If there is anything I've learned of most magic players, the only thing they value less than money is their time.
You are being way, way too optimistic. Making it "draftable" is WotCs way of warning people that there will be a bunch of junk in it too.
Technically they're not allowed to (WotC rule) so I doubt it.
If by quash you mean show the true meaning of price gouging they definitely would.