Magic Market Index for Sep 14th, 2018
 
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Magic Market Index: Hit Over Miss
  • posted a message on Jund
    Quote from yriel »
    Guys, i have my huge modern tournament sunday (huge price pool :D) and i am pretty sure about my list up to now except on point :
    leyline of the void or a mix between spellbomb/cage ?
    I don't ask you what you play but what's your argument to choose leyline or not ?
    The most obvious is the bridgevine deck, i think there will is just a few and more hollow one.
    I don't play on MTGO but i see a lot of Jund lists run the 4 leyline of the void.

    Thanks for you help

    Per MTG Goldfish, only about 42% of Jund decks run 3 online, so it's by no means required or even common. I also don't even think it's optimal. The highest-finishing Jund list at GP Stockholm, Bergerot's who missed on breakers alone, ran zero Leylines: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1331227#online. Naonari Hoshide got 6th at GP HK and had zero Leylines too: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1331263#online. The 8-1 T8 MTGO PTQ list by O_danielakos also ran zero Leyline: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/1306402#online. I'd lean towards the Extraction/Spellbomb package over Leyline in most lists. It's just more versatile for the different GY decks you are likely to encounter in Modern.
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on [GRN] Guilds of Ravnica previews and spoilers: Modern edition
    Quote from idSurge »
    I'm pretty sure all I cared about were these 2.

    Selective Snare
    Dazzling Lights

    Nothing else jumped out at me.

    If Lights said "up to one target creature," I would have considered it. With it being a dead draw at too many stages of the game against stuff like Tron, KCI, and UWx Control, I'm just not interested.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from BlueTronFTW »
    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    So, let's talk about this:
    https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/magic-digital/mtg-arena-open-all-starting-september-27-2018-09-19
    Note that with the addition of Guilds of Ravnica, we're aligning the pool of available cards on MTG Arena with Standard. When Open Beta starts, you'll be able to get the following sets: Ixalan, Rivals of Ixalan, Dominaria, Core Set 2019, and, of course, Guilds of Ravnica. We are committed to ultimately providing a format for MTG Arena post-rotations, so once we have settled on how set rotation works, next year we will likely return previous sets to the system, including Kaladesh, Aether Revolt, Amonkhet, and Hour of Devastation.

    This is the first time I've seen Wizards actually go on record for a non-rotating Arena format: note that they say "post-rotations" plural, not just post-rotation singular. I think there was a vague reference earlier to the so-called rotation problem, but this kind of more explicit acknowledgement deserves discussion. I'm particularly nervous about how this would affect MTGO collections, in addition to its impact on Modern.


    Arena is adding a pauper-style format that exists within the standard-legal sets but will allow only commons. Hence referencing multiple rotations.

    Is there a source for this? That doesn't seem to resolve the so-called rotation problem at all, as only your commons would retain post-rotation value. This format almost certainly refers to a new post-Arena Modernesque format
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    So, let's talk about this:
    https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/magic-digital/mtg-arena-open-all-starting-september-27-2018-09-19
    Note that with the addition of Guilds of Ravnica, we're aligning the pool of available cards on MTG Arena with Standard. When Open Beta starts, you'll be able to get the following sets: Ixalan, Rivals of Ixalan, Dominaria, Core Set 2019, and, of course, Guilds of Ravnica. We are committed to ultimately providing a format for MTG Arena post-rotations, so once we have settled on how set rotation works, next year we will likely return previous sets to the system, including Kaladesh, Aether Revolt, Amonkhet, and Hour of Devastation.

    This is the first time I've seen Wizards actually go on record for a non-rotating Arena format: note that they say "post-rotations" plural, not just post-rotation singular. I think there was a vague reference earlier to the so-called rotation problem, but this kind of more explicit acknowledgement deserves discussion. I'm particularly nervous about how this would affect MTGO collections, in addition to its impact on Modern.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Abzan / The Rock
    How do we feel about 4 Field vs. 3 Field in traditional BG Rock? On the one hand, I love 4 Field as it allows us to play the Rock's gtibdiest game of Magic and solidifies a number of key matchups if the game goes long. It also really turns on mana denial as a viable strategy against most 3+ colored decks. On the other hand, between Quagmire, Village, and Field, the 4th Field is a slight ding on our ability to consistently hit T2 Trophy. Is that worth it? What will all of you lean towards?
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    From what I've seen, there are numerous illegitimate complaints about KCI (illegitimate insofar as they don't lead to bans) and one possible justification for worry. Illegitimate complaints include T4 rule violations (the deck appears to win on T3 even less than Infect or Storm, both of which are also top-tier), play experience being bad (subjective and this never mattered for top-tier Lantern), KCI being "too strong" (not played out in numbers as KCI has fallen off hard since earlier this year), the deck being non-intuitive (subjective, plus Modern is the format for weird decks to succeed and be viable), and others. Most of these failed critiques have a few commonalities: they are subjective, they don't have a banning precedent, and/or they aren't supported by GP/large event MTGO #s.

    KCI's biggest concern is logistical. As the theory goes, a single KCI turn might take too long to play out. If a round has already gone to turns, this means a KCI pilot could get an untimed 15 minute turn that pushes the entire tournament behind. This would be even worse for an inexperienced KCI pilot who is fumbling through a winning turn. Tat said, this theory has yet to be proven, but it is at least a) provable through tournament and testing data, b) verifiable through on-the-ground tournament experience, and c) in line with the Sunrise precedent. I'd be interested in hearing objective and transparent analyses of this issue. Most other KCI complaints, however, are just typical Modern noise about certain players disliking certain decks.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Abzan / The Rock
    Quote from DELTA622 »
    Any users wanna share their traverse lists? I like the idea, im just more used to traditional BGx

    I'm just going to defer to Fallleaf on MTGO, who has consistent PTQ/Challenge/League placements with all flavors of Abzan for months throughout 2018. He recently T16d the MTGO PTQ last weekend:
    https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/modern-ptq-2018-09-17



    In general, these lists have lower land counts, 4 Bauble, 4 Flayer/4 Goyf, and 3 Traverse with the usual BGx complement around it.

    Post-Trophy, I'd go -1 Decay, -1 Path, -1 something and +3 Trophy in the MD. -1 LotV/land/Brutality for that 3rd Trophy, and maybe 1-2 more flex slots. Trophy also lets you trim -1 Mage from the SB.
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from tronix »
    that is probably true for most matchup evaluations one way or another. mostly because people are notoriously bad (myself included) at evaluating their own skill level and the skill level of their opponents.

    That's mostly true, especially with skill evaluations. Notably, people report, probably honestly, 70%+ MWP on MTGO with their pet decks. I absolutely buy that for most content creators. But the best pros in the world hover in the low-to-mid 60% MWP. Some have format MWP in the high 50s and there's no single deck in either the large N 2015 or 2018 datasets that has 60%+ MWP. That said, there ARE matchups that are 30-70, such as Twin Affinity and Ad Naus Infect. So if someone is estimating their deck MWP or player MWP outside of that 40-60 band, call me skeptical. And if they are pegging a matchup outside that range, it better be really exceptional.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from idSurge »
    Yeah, its as ktk say's, if you think you have a good match up, subtract 5% from it, and check again. 1 for 1 removal is not sufficient, especially if Freebooter and Meddling Mage come into play.

    Yep, this this this. Hopefully everyone in the thread internalizes this, and I wish I could post it to every thread in the forum and discussion on Reddit. Humans is 52% MWP overall and tends to perform about 5% better in every matchup. If one thinks they have a positive Humans matchup, it's probably even. If one thinks they have a very favorable Humans matchup, it's probably no better than 45-55. If one thinks they have a bad Humans matchup, it's probably even worse than they think at 40-60. That said, both KCI and Tron do have good Humans matchups.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from Aazadan »
    Quote from Mtgthewary »
    Yeah, but even then you need worse match ups...at the moment cannot See this worse match ups for human. Even against mardu it seems favored if we look data and people still think its mardu. UW? Still humans...where are Bad match ups?


    KCI and Tron are both unfavorable matchups for humans.

    Don't remember the KCI matchup, but can confirm in the large MWP dataset, Humans is very unfavored against Tron. It's at least 45-55 and probably 40-60.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    SCG Open results are up too:
    http://www.starcitygames.com/events/150918_syracuse.html
    http://www.starcitygames.com/events/coverage/4438_top_16_modern_open_decklists.html

    2 Humans
    2 Burn
    1 Living End
    1 Hardened Scales
    1 UW Control
    1 Storm

    Burn and Grishoalbrand missed on breakers. From a format perspective, I'm comfortable affirming that the format is in a really great spot with viable decks across all archetypes and colors. I'm really excited for Guilds to offer some excellent Modern tech to boost up even more decks. From a B&R perspective, Stirrings decks have really fallen off since earlier this year, and that ban talk makes decreasing sense from a numbers perspective. The only unban that looks to be completely off the table is Preordain, given the success of various blue decks that will adopt Preordain to varying extents and with varying impact. 2018's overall results continue to suggest that GSZ could still be in the conversation, but I see both the risks and benefits of the card. SFM is less risky and would still probably be fine, but I can see likely scenarios where Wizards doesn't want more white cards at top tables to blunt aggressive strategies.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from Wraithpk »
    Mardu was good in the Humans-shaped meta, but control has shifted the meta to a spot where Mardu is less good, even though it's not bad against control itself. It'll be interesting to see how the meta shifts when Guilds comes out. If BGx rises back to prominence, Mardu could find itself well positioned again.

    Mardu is 43.9% against Humans in the GP/SCG Open sample with 66 matches total. This is surprising to me and could represent some variance, but I also stand by a statement I made in another thread: Humans is a lot better than people think. I'm of the mindset that whatever you think your Humans matchup is, it's probably >5% worse than that if we really had a large sample. I expect the true Mard vs. Humans MWP is probably much closer to 50-50 than the Mardu pilots admit. As another example, Humans vs. UW Control is about 51% in Humans' favor with N=70 and that's supposed to be a good matchup. The only truly unfavorable matchup I've seen Humans hit is Jeskai vs. Humans, which is about 55% in Jeskai's favor (N=86). But that's still "only" a 45-55 slightly unfavored matchup when I expect many Jeskai pilots probably sell it as a 60-40 matchup. I think this all just speaks to the power of Humans and how people are less favored against Humans than they might believe.
    Posted in: Modern
  • posted a message on Bubble Hulk
    Quote from Crazybop09 »
    Any1 still playing this? having some consistent success with the Grixis version

    I stepped away because of the extensive GY hate in the format targeting H1, Bridgevine, and KCI. Lots of Extraction too to disrupt decks like Gx Tron and Valakut on top of those. UW Control also sucks with its maindeck Paths, Terminus sets, and countermagic. All of these have really pushed Bubble Hulk into a weak position in my experience.
    Posted in: Combo
  • posted a message on Jund
    And another! Nicolas Bergerot misses T8 of Stockholm solely on breakers and he only had one Bye.



    This is a much more traditional list and represents the highest-finish, most current Jund list going into Guilds. The 3/2 Lily split is interesting, especially in a tournament and field that is defined more by UW Control than Humans. I think I'd cut 1 Lily, 1 Decay, and 1 Dreadbore for the 3 Trophies after Guilds hits, but I'm not thrilled about just running 3 Bolts. Even if UW Control is a defining deck, Bolt is still decent there and it's just so critical against all the other aggressive decks.
    Posted in: Midrange
  • posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 20/08/2018)
    Quote from gkourou »
    @ktk, twin is red, lol. /sarcasm
    Fully agreed. 7 out of 8 decks are blue. Blue is literally the best colour atm.
    Also, white in too many decks. Not sure about sfm.
    Green and toolbox decks are literally dying for more than a year and GSZ at this point seems logical, but new creatures are going to be printed for sure.
    Quote from idSurge »
    And we know SCG will have a UWx deck or 2 in the top. Preordain and sadly SFM are likely nonstarters.

    Yeah, I think all those cards are nonstarters for various reasons, ranging from perceived to actual issues. Blue and white-based decks just seem to be doing so well. But I do think that GSZ is an increasingly interesting and viable unban topic. Again, I'm not convinced it's a net benefit to the format. I'm a little worried about Elves, and don't think Titanshift and/or Amulet necessarily need to explore that possible upgrade. BG Rock with GSZ also feels strong. But it might give all those decks enough of a boost to make them more competitive than they are now. I don't know; I'm curious about arguments on both sides.

    I think we're at a confident "No changes" for the upcoming B&R and have a visibly diverse metagame with tons of viable options. We'll see how the Modern-focused cards in Guilds changes the scene and check back in for B&R changes in early 2019.
    Posted in: Modern
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