1) The best Blood Moon deck is dead. Get those Celestial Purges out of the SB.
2) We're going to see a lot more aggro and Tron, and a lot less midrange now that one of the natural prey for those decks is gone. Interestingly, I think our response to both these developments is similar - just play lower to the ground. Oblivion Sower was needed to go over the midrange decks, but it's not great versus aggro. Similarly, we can't go over Tron, so Sower isn't really the ideal card - Smasher would actually be better here since we need to race, straight up. For similar reasons, I think we just suck it up and play 4 Stranglers. That's really a key card versus aggro and is another random thing to pressure Tron's life total.
That's zero Maps and 26 lands - I added back the third Eye since we don't have the Maps in this build. Might be wrong, but we're not so reliant on the early Eye with zero 6-drops, so I figured this version of the deck just curves out naturally more often. I think there are still situations where you want access to Ulamog, so I left that in there to tutor for with Eye in games that just naturally go long. We should be able to cast it more reliably with 26 lands anyway. It's possible that should be a Map or a Smasher, though.
Br gets better with twin ban, crumble to dust for tron (and the mirror), and red sweepers for aggressive decks and artifact hate
IMO, what BR really needs to do to be good versus Tron is to have Lightning Bolt and Reality Smashers to race because BR is so horrible versus a resolved Wurmcoil Engine. Also, I'm not sure if you can cast Anger of the Gods in this deck on time because 1RR is really hard.
The ban is what it is. Tron isn't a horrible match up, a challenge sure but not horrible, just means possibly upping GQ to 4 MD to combat that puts you over 50% by turn 3. Wurmcoil is answered cleanly in this build with Path. Its Karn that is the issue, and even a resolved Karn isn't instascoop. With this announcement though Warping Wail might loses a little bit of its luster since Snap, Deceiver Exarch and Skite made up 3 of the top 10 most played creatures in the format. Affinty, Burn, Infect and Boggles will likely steadily rise to combat tron so I still think MD spellskite will go a long way. The fear against twin was them having both blood moon and the combo but with the combo gone while still having Maps, it might be correct to now run a full playset of Caves and move beyond fetches.
At least in my experience, 4 GQ is still not really enough - having Surgical Extraction or something like that is what really makes the matchup feel reasonable. It's a shame that those cards are so horrible versus linear aggro.
You want more consistency? Change the Reality Smashers and Matter Reshapers into Sowers & Stranglers.
But I found Strangler's blanked a lot, or didn't have enough processing to be relevant when I wanted them.
And Sower was often just dead in my hand if I had a clunky draw. It's also pretty underwhelming if you're losing.
First, a nitpick: you have 24 lands. You forgot to list your Bog.
I agree that multiple Sowers can be clunky and mediocre on defense, especially when your opponent is going wide, but I don't see how Reality Smasher helps there. As a defensive card, it's just worse since it has 3 less toughness.
A thing about the offensive capability of Reality Smasher, by the way, is that 5/5 is actually not as huge as you might think, especially past turn 4 or so. Like sometimes you have Smasher and your opponent has like Kird Ape and Nacatl, and you actually just can't attack because a double-block leads to an awful trade. I think the card is pretty win more.
This archetype has kind of been aching for a good 3cmc sweeper, and sadly, I don't think we have one. If only Flaying Tendrils gave -3/-3, then we would be in business.
Not sure why people are playing Expedition Map, I don't think it's necessary unless you're going much heavier drop route.
Because the mana is shaky and sometimes you need some fixing. Also, grabbing the utility lands is a common play.
I'd have to review your list. Mine does not play sower. I never have actually activated Eye yet. Most of my spells costs 3 or less. Cairns only misses on 9 other lands. Chances are it shouldn't miss. I will have to do more testing but it may be correct to adjust the mana base. I think 4 swamp is enough right?
Also blood moon is rough. You can still play Herder to process and create colorless mana. Not really sure what to do about this one. We don't play fetches so it's awkward. I do not want to play map because Jund doesn't play map.
I've been kicking this around with quite a lot of success. I've found that Warping Wail just screws up the mana unnecessarily in this shell just because Path to Exile does the first mode better.
Reality Smasher might have a place - as is, this deck is basically just doing what the mono-black Eldrazi Processors thread is trying to do with OGW, except we're just running Souls instead of Smasher, which I think is right. But it's possible we should run both.
Thanks for making the mono black thread! I stopped following the insanity of the other one about a week ago - too much.
I am pretty excited to play some post-OGW eldrazi, and I wanted to bring up a few discussion points I posted originally in the other thread, which were promptly buried.
I feel like it might be a good idea to discuss the following for builds that can incorporate two titans (mostly players going for BC):
Regardless of all the whacky cards out - I feel this is a decision everyone playing colorless eldrazi is going to have to think about... Personally I like the 1/1 titan split.
I think Kozilek is good for the card advantage all by itself. The counterspell potential is situationally relevant, but will probably be good in most cases - especially with the addition of the new <> spells to smooth out the curve. Either way you reduce the risk of drawing two of the same titan, have access to some diversity, and its easier for kozilek to get damage in with that menace (lol - menace). Each titan is better in different matchups
I feel like drawing multiple exile eggs is fine, they cycle at worst... At best they allow you to curve out your processors, and still cycle!
Perhaps someone knows the proper enablers to processors ratio. My quess would be at least 1:1, preferably 1:1.5 to be consistent (including non-egg cards like bojuka bog). So if you had a full set of Wasteland Strangler and Blight Herder you would want 12 exile enablers minimum for that to be consistent.
Thoughts?
Also - where Are we at on Wasteland Strangler? The rumblings of people cutting him are around, but I think this is a mistake. I think that this is question needs to be answered along with the one directely above about the exile ratio...
About Kozilek: I like old Kozilek more than new Kozilek just because the mana costs in our deck are biased heavily towards expensive spells, and so we don't actually have many cards that counter relevant removal from the opponent. Also Annihilator 4 is probably better than Menace because nothing is trading with this thing in combat unless your opponent has some way to get deathtouch.
About GY eggs: It is awkward to overload on eggs because even if they cycle, they cost mana to cycle, and that's bad specifically in the early game because midrange decks like this lose most often just from getting tempoed out. In case you haven't done the math, a 1:1 or 1:1.5 ratio means you want to play somewhere between 8-12 eggs, which is really excessive because at that point, your eggs have a decent shot of drawing you into another egg instead of gas. Finally, the rate on the processors' bodies are actually fine on their own when you have Temple or Eye out, so it's not a disaster if you don't have the egg. By the way, shadowgripper, if you're reading this, I made a comment contradicting you about this in the other <>B thread, but testing has proven me wrong.
About Wasteland Strangler: This build has no Lingering Souls, and we need an early play, even if it's just a vanilla 3/2, so I agree that is a mistake to cut it. This is especially crucial in post-board games when GQ and Crumble to Dust and other such effects are likely to hinder us from getting to 4 or 5 mana in a timely fashion.
I liked ur BW mana base there, but i would like to be able to run 4 Ghost Quarter, cuz thats what win the Tron MU, what would be the best solution, in your opinion.
You probably cut the Vault for the 3rd one, and then there are no easy cuts. Probably the next one to go is the second Plains, but that makes your mana situation sketchier against Blood Moon. Or you could go with Shambling Vent, but that cuts your B down to 13. Finally, you could cut a non-land for a 26th land, which isn't unreasonable, but might be bad overall. Pick your poison.
In Magic, we don't play random individual games, we play matches. For simplicity, suppose you play a match that goes to game 3. Your probability of not being screwed at least once by your mana base with regards to casting a Thoughtseize is the cube of these numbers. So instance, a 95% success rate translates to an 85% chance of success in a 3-game match, a 90% success rate in one game translates to a 73% chance of success in a 3-game match, and an 80% success rate in a game means roughly only a 51% success rate a 3-game match.
So small percentages compound severely over the course of a match. Do not underestimate these little percentages!
Just in case anyone cares for more specific numbers, I ran Karsten's simulation code for 10000 iterations and got some experimental numbers. Just to review, the mulligan rules of the simulation are: "We mulligan any 7-card hand with 0, 1, 6, or 7 lands, any 6-card hand with 0,1, 5, or 6 lands, any 5-card hand with 0 or 5 lands, and we keep all other hands."
Note that the code does not tell you how often you have to mulligan, so before anyone misunderstands, you have to pick the right number of total lands first or else the program will give you misleading results. For instance, the program will paradoxically tell you that your mana gets more solid if you decrease the number of total lands because the program will keep mulliganing until you get a hand with lands in it, and if you have fewer total lands, your on-color sources are a larger fraction of those sources, so the probability will go up.
Probability of being able to cast turn 1 Thoughtseize in a deck with 25 lands:
With 6 black sources: Prob=0.5789736921076323
With 7 black sources: Prob=0.6416283256651331
With 8 black sources: Prob=0.6954695469546954
With 9 black sources: Prob=0.7344672336168084
With 10 black sources: Prob=0.7824782478247825
With 11 black sources: Prob=0.8163081540770385
With 12 black sources: Prob=0.8574857485748575
With 13 black sources: Prob=0.8891667500250076
With 14 black sources: Prob=0.9045
With 15 black sources: Prob=0.9281856371274255
With 16 black sources: Prob=0.9458837651295389
With 17 black sources: Prob=0.9556911382276455
With 18 black sources: Prob=0.9692969296929693
With 19 black sources: Prob=0.9768884442221111
With 20 black sources: Prob=0.9866960088026407
With 21 black sources: Prob=0.9912982596519304
With 22 black sources: Prob=0.9952990598119624
With 23 black sources: Prob=0.9986998699869987
With 24 black sources: Prob=0.9994997498749375
Probability of being able to cast a turn 3 Thought-Knot Seer in a deck with 25 lands:
With 6 colorless sources: Prob=0.6624662466246625
With 7 colorless sources: Prob=0.7281728172817282
With 8 colorless sources: Prob=0.7775
With 9 colorless sources: Prob=0.816
With 10 colorless sources: Prob=0.8594
With 11 colorless sources: Prob=0.8925
With 12 colorless sources: Prob=0.9111911191119112
With 13 colorless sources: Prob=0.9322932293229323
With 14 colorless sources: Prob=0.9487948794879488
With 15 colorless sources: Prob=0.9625962596259626
With 16 colorless sources: Prob=0.9724
With 17 colorless sources: Prob=0.9795979597959796
With 18 colorless sources: Prob=0.989
With 19 colorless sources: Prob=0.9906990699069907
With 20 colorless sources: Prob=0.9948994899489949
With 21 colorless sources: Prob=0.9968
With 22 colorless sources: Prob=0.9986
With 23 colorless sources: Prob=0.9996
With 24 colorless sources: Prob=0.9998999899989999
This deck looks like it plays a lot like Jund. Does it? I'm after a deck that plays like Jund, but isn't Jund (long story short, Jund isn't how it use to be when I started Modern). I'm looking to get into the deck, and a midrange strategy like Jund would be great.
It's just like Jund except with better top end. You see the decklists - discard, removal, and undercosted threats, just like it used to be.
Also happy to see a mono-black eldrazi thread at this point as well. It's likely the most consistent of the entire lot since we only are dealing with two "colors". If only they had a fetch land for wastes, we'd be set for life. Anyone else think we should probably have one or two basic wastes in the deck just in case of bloodmoon, or do you think it's not worth it?
With TKS entering the deck as a 4 of and possibly [[Warping Wail]] as a possible 2 of, this requires us to have B on turn 1 for discard and both <> and B on turn 2 in order to possibly play TKS, Wail or Strangler. Admittedly I havent done enough testing with the new additions to say whether or not the current Mana base is sufficient for these purposes, but I have noticed the BW build running [[Caves of Kolios]] as a tri "colored" source to help fix.
I was wondering what everyone thought of running some amount of [[Tendo Ice Bridge]] as a psuedo dual land to help fix our Mana in the early turns that comes in untapped and without life loss! The obvious downside of it only producing B one time is mitigated by having 4x Urborgs. Again, I dont know if they are necessary but in my experience Tendo Ice Bridge really helps smooth things out.
Edit: thanks for making the <>B thread Grimpow
I'd like to say a few words about mana bases, since I see people suggesting things that range between slightly-too-greedy and completely unreasonable.
Every version of the Eldrazi deck that I have ever seen plays some combination of Inquisition of Kozilek and/or Thoughtseize. These cards require access to B on turn 1 ideally. People have also at various points suggested running BB cards like Flaying Tendrils, Damnation, Liliana, etc. Karsten's article tells us what this requires:
... to consistently cast Thoughtseize on turn one, you need 14 black sources in your deck, and to consistently cast Supreme Verdict on turn four, you need 18 white sources in your deck.
To be completely clear, consistent means "more than 90% of the time".
So let's discuss what this means in the context of Eldrazi. First, you can't count Expedition Map as a B source when talking about turn 1 discard. Not to pick on LordGrimpow, but just for an example, the decklist in the OP has 11 black sources, one of which is Bojuka Bog, but let's pretend that it counts. That's not a priori unacceptable, but it does mean that that you're not going to be able to cast a T1 IoK/Thoughtseize in your hand pretty frequently - more than 20% of the time if I did Karsten's complicated math right (I am a physicist IRL). Now, you could ask (a) is it important to be able to cast a T1 Thoughtseize more than 90% of the time in this deck, or (b) will fixing this screw up the deck somehow? I don't know the answers to this definitively, but it's worth thinking about. My feeling is that we should try to make the minimums because T1 discard can be an utterly backbreaking play.
Now, let's talk about <>. This is pretty much the same deal, except what we really care about is enabling Thought-Knot Seer. Warping Wail might be in or out, I don't know, but a naive application of Karsten's article tells us we should have 11 mana sources. I think this is wrong. We want to cast TKS on turn 2 or 3, not turn 4. So really it should be more like 12 or 13. LordGrimpow's list has 9. On the other hand, Expedition Map does help a little bit here because we can play and crack it before we cast TKS a lot of the time. Also, Relic of Progenitus draws a card, which effectively reduces our deck size by a little, but this effect is small. So I could go either way on this one.
What I am trying to say, in short, is that we don't just magically have better mana because we don't have a splash color. We have to think about what we're doing. Playing all these colorless lands, especially Eye of Ugin (which does not pay for Thought-Knot Seer's <> requirement, by the way) makes it very hard to even support a single color. Playing 6-7 basic Swamps and 4 Urborg itself is probably not enough, and it makes our <> mana situation worse. Playing only 23 lands makes it that much harder to actually have the correct number of sources.
Consider the mana base I just proposed in the <>BW thread. It has 14/13/11 sources of B/W/C, so it's beating this deck in every way when it comes to having access to its "colors" on time.
So it's obviously possible for this deck, we just have to try harder. I think flat-out, we need to play more than 23 lands, not just for having enough sources of each color, but just for having enough sources period. We're trying to cast 6-drops reliably, for heaven's sake! Karsten also wrote an article about this, but I won't get into that right now. You can decide what to cut, but personally, for a decklist very close to what LordGrimpow posted, we can definitely have completely, uncontroversially perfect mana with 25 land:
This is 14 B/13 C, untapped, turn 1. Three comments:
1) The deck only runs 8-12 cards that have B in them, so I think the painlands don't hurt you much and they make it so that if you get many early B cards just by variance, you're not screwed. If you want to protect your life total more aggressively, you can run more Tendo and less Underground River. If you are very afraid of being mana screwed, you can run Sulfurous Springs or whatever instead of Tendo. Underground River is the best painland because we run Spellskite, by the way.
2) About basic Wastes: This is not needed IMO if our only <> card is Thought-Knot Seer. If we get Blood Mooned, I think it's ok to have one card disabled. If you want to run a Wastes you can't responsibly cut a black source for it. It means cutting a Ghost Quarter probably (I don't think you can cut a Temple or Eye without screwing everything up).
3) You can run a Bojuka Bog instead of a Swamp, but like all taplands, they screw up your turn 1 plays. If it's worth it, though, just do it. Raging Ravine in Jund is a great example of where it's just worth it, and you don't have the T1 Lightning Bolt consistently because of it, but Ravine is just too strong not to play. With Bojuka Bog, I don't know if it's worth it - it's up to you.
Sorry if this is all too tl;dr but I really believe people are generally way, way too greedy when it comes to lands and it irks me. This is doubly true when it comes to a "monoblack deck" like this, which people read and think "the mana must always work out because how can you go wrong with the mana base for a monoblack deck!"
I don't like the idea of cutting Marsh Flats entirely, but I could appreciate reducing the numbers to 2-3 to accommodate a 1-off Wastes.
I agree, plus bring able to have a godless shrine Turns 1-3 is awesome for a deck like this.
I took out a Bojuka Bog and a Cavern of Souls to accommodate 2 Caves of Koilos. I also ditched a Ruin Processor for a Spellskite, I'll see how it tests out.
I don't see the point. Your goal is to consistently get your B/W source on Turn 1-3 online. If you replace all 4 fetches with Cave of Kolios you (and I was running 2 Isolated Chapels that are going to be replaced with Godless Shrines) you still have that same chance. If you'd have a fetch in hand, you instead have a Cave which gives you all 3 "colors" you need. If you draw a natural godless shrine you have that as well. I don't think we need Fetches in this deck.
I like fetches for a two main reasons. First, they allow you to greatly improve the chance that you have accces to an early basic land when trying to play around Blood Moon. This is huge and enough of a reason by itself. Second, they enable you to play fewer copies of Godless Shrine, which is good because past the first one, each Godless Shrine afterwards is an awful topdeck. You don't want to shock yourself if you can help it. So if you topdeck Marsh Flats instead, you can save yourself a damage and just get a basic. Or if you have Urborg in play and don't care about the white mana, you can just play it and never crack it, and not have to pay 2 life just to have it come into play untapped. The mana base I posted a few posts ago has only one Godless Shrine, and that is awesome.
Thank you for doing this! Have you done any testing with Reality Smasher or Eldrazi Mimic? I am pretty on the fence with them, specifically Smasher; in the games where you want him he is an all star but doesn't help much with our Ulamog/Kozilek game plan. Mimic is another one that can be very good or suboptimal depending on the game.
Also how do you feel about Sea Gate Wreckage? It has not proven remotely useful in my testing aside from an alternate colorless source. I still think it is a great card but we simply rarely empty our hands and if we do the game should be pretty much over.
I've tested just Reality Smasher, and it's fine but not incredible. The triggered ability is actually not as impactful as you might think since most decks have so much garbage against us anyway (Lightning Bolt? Spell Snare?). The biggest problem is that when you're behind, he does nothing to help, whereas Blight Herder is great. He kinda feels like an Eldrazi Lava Axe, and I'm not sure if there's a place for that in this deck.
I honestly don't care much about the triggered ability, but a 5/5 hasty trampler for 3 that can come down on turn 2 seems like he needs to be tested. He may not be great for Mono B but he is a good beater and can put opponents on a clock early. I've been going back and forth between including him and not including him in testing and the results have been inconclusive.
Like I said, I've tried him and he's fine but not incredible. But let me say one thing more: all our other cards close out the game quickly, this is not unique to Reality Smasher. Reality Smasher has a place if we feel that the threat density of the deck is too low. With Thought-Knot Seer, my intuition is that this is unlikely.
1) The best Blood Moon deck is dead. Get those Celestial Purges out of the SB.
2) We're going to see a lot more aggro and Tron, and a lot less midrange now that one of the natural prey for those decks is gone. Interestingly, I think our response to both these developments is similar - just play lower to the ground. Oblivion Sower was needed to go over the midrange decks, but it's not great versus aggro. Similarly, we can't go over Tron, so Sower isn't really the ideal card - Smasher would actually be better here since we need to race, straight up. For similar reasons, I think we just suck it up and play 4 Stranglers. That's really a key card versus aggro and is another random thing to pressure Tron's life total.
Theorycraft decklist:
3 Eye of Ugin
2 Urborg, Tomb to Yawgmoth
4 Caves of Koilos
4 Marsh Flats
2 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Godless Shrine
2 Shambling Vent
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Vault of the Archangel
4 Lingering Souls
4 Wasteland Strangler
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Blight Herder
2 Reality Smasher
1 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
4 Path to Exile
2 Disfigure
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
3 Stony Silence
2 Spellskite
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Disenchant
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Damnation
1 Kataki, War's Wage
That's zero Maps and 26 lands - I added back the third Eye since we don't have the Maps in this build. Might be wrong, but we're not so reliant on the early Eye with zero 6-drops, so I figured this version of the deck just curves out naturally more often. I think there are still situations where you want access to Ulamog, so I left that in there to tutor for with Eye in games that just naturally go long. We should be able to cast it more reliably with 26 lands anyway. It's possible that should be a Map or a Smasher, though.
First, a nitpick: you have 24 lands. You forgot to list your Bog.
I agree that multiple Sowers can be clunky and mediocre on defense, especially when your opponent is going wide, but I don't see how Reality Smasher helps there. As a defensive card, it's just worse since it has 3 less toughness.
A thing about the offensive capability of Reality Smasher, by the way, is that 5/5 is actually not as huge as you might think, especially past turn 4 or so. Like sometimes you have Smasher and your opponent has like Kird Ape and Nacatl, and you actually just can't attack because a double-block leads to an awful trade. I think the card is pretty win more.
This archetype has kind of been aching for a good 3cmc sweeper, and sadly, I don't think we have one. If only Flaying Tendrils gave -3/-3, then we would be in business.
Because the mana is shaky and sometimes you need some fixing. Also, grabbing the utility lands is a common play.
I've been kicking this around with quite a lot of success. I've found that Warping Wail just screws up the mana unnecessarily in this shell just because Path to Exile does the first mode better.
4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Eye of Ugin
2 Ghost Quarter
1 Godless Shrine
4 Marsh Flats
2 Plains
2 Shambling Vent
1 Swamp
2 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Vault of the Archangel
4 Blight Herder
3 Oblivion Sower
4 Thought-Knot Seer
1 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
2 Wasteland Strangler
4 Lingering Souls
4 Path to Exile
1 Slaughter Pact
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
2 Expedition Map
4 Relic of Progenitus
2 Spellskite
2 Stony Silence
2 Celestial Purge
1 Disenchant
3 Rest for the Weary
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Damnation
Reality Smasher might have a place - as is, this deck is basically just doing what the mono-black Eldrazi Processors thread is trying to do with OGW, except we're just running Souls instead of Smasher, which I think is right. But it's possible we should run both.
About GY eggs: It is awkward to overload on eggs because even if they cycle, they cost mana to cycle, and that's bad specifically in the early game because midrange decks like this lose most often just from getting tempoed out. In case you haven't done the math, a 1:1 or 1:1.5 ratio means you want to play somewhere between 8-12 eggs, which is really excessive because at that point, your eggs have a decent shot of drawing you into another egg instead of gas. Finally, the rate on the processors' bodies are actually fine on their own when you have Temple or Eye out, so it's not a disaster if you don't have the egg. By the way, shadowgripper, if you're reading this, I made a comment contradicting you about this in the other <>B thread, but testing has proven me wrong.
About Wasteland Strangler: This build has no Lingering Souls, and we need an early play, even if it's just a vanilla 3/2, so I agree that is a mistake to cut it. This is especially crucial in post-board games when GQ and Crumble to Dust and other such effects are likely to hinder us from getting to 4 or 5 mana in a timely fashion.
In Magic, we don't play random individual games, we play matches. For simplicity, suppose you play a match that goes to game 3. Your probability of not being screwed at least once by your mana base with regards to casting a Thoughtseize is the cube of these numbers. So instance, a 95% success rate translates to an 85% chance of success in a 3-game match, a 90% success rate in one game translates to a 73% chance of success in a 3-game match, and an 80% success rate in a game means roughly only a 51% success rate a 3-game match.
So small percentages compound severely over the course of a match. Do not underestimate these little percentages!
Note that the code does not tell you how often you have to mulligan, so before anyone misunderstands, you have to pick the right number of total lands first or else the program will give you misleading results. For instance, the program will paradoxically tell you that your mana gets more solid if you decrease the number of total lands because the program will keep mulliganing until you get a hand with lands in it, and if you have fewer total lands, your on-color sources are a larger fraction of those sources, so the probability will go up.
Probability of being able to cast turn 1 Thoughtseize in a deck with 25 lands:
With 6 black sources: Prob=0.5789736921076323
With 7 black sources: Prob=0.6416283256651331
With 8 black sources: Prob=0.6954695469546954
With 9 black sources: Prob=0.7344672336168084
With 10 black sources: Prob=0.7824782478247825
With 11 black sources: Prob=0.8163081540770385
With 12 black sources: Prob=0.8574857485748575
With 13 black sources: Prob=0.8891667500250076
With 14 black sources: Prob=0.9045
With 15 black sources: Prob=0.9281856371274255
With 16 black sources: Prob=0.9458837651295389
With 17 black sources: Prob=0.9556911382276455
With 18 black sources: Prob=0.9692969296929693
With 19 black sources: Prob=0.9768884442221111
With 20 black sources: Prob=0.9866960088026407
With 21 black sources: Prob=0.9912982596519304
With 22 black sources: Prob=0.9952990598119624
With 23 black sources: Prob=0.9986998699869987
With 24 black sources: Prob=0.9994997498749375
Probability of being able to cast a turn 3 Thought-Knot Seer in a deck with 25 lands:
With 6 colorless sources: Prob=0.6624662466246625
With 7 colorless sources: Prob=0.7281728172817282
With 8 colorless sources: Prob=0.7775
With 9 colorless sources: Prob=0.816
With 10 colorless sources: Prob=0.8594
With 11 colorless sources: Prob=0.8925
With 12 colorless sources: Prob=0.9111911191119112
With 13 colorless sources: Prob=0.9322932293229323
With 14 colorless sources: Prob=0.9487948794879488
With 15 colorless sources: Prob=0.9625962596259626
With 16 colorless sources: Prob=0.9724
With 17 colorless sources: Prob=0.9795979597959796
With 18 colorless sources: Prob=0.989
With 19 colorless sources: Prob=0.9906990699069907
With 20 colorless sources: Prob=0.9948994899489949
With 21 colorless sources: Prob=0.9968
With 22 colorless sources: Prob=0.9986
With 23 colorless sources: Prob=0.9996
With 24 colorless sources: Prob=0.9998999899989999
I'd like to say a few words about mana bases, since I see people suggesting things that range between slightly-too-greedy and completely unreasonable.
Every version of the Eldrazi deck that I have ever seen plays some combination of Inquisition of Kozilek and/or Thoughtseize. These cards require access to B on turn 1 ideally. People have also at various points suggested running BB cards like Flaying Tendrils, Damnation, Liliana, etc. Karsten's article tells us what this requires:
To be completely clear, consistent means "more than 90% of the time".
So let's discuss what this means in the context of Eldrazi. First, you can't count Expedition Map as a B source when talking about turn 1 discard. Not to pick on LordGrimpow, but just for an example, the decklist in the OP has 11 black sources, one of which is Bojuka Bog, but let's pretend that it counts. That's not a priori unacceptable, but it does mean that that you're not going to be able to cast a T1 IoK/Thoughtseize in your hand pretty frequently - more than 20% of the time if I did Karsten's complicated math right (I am a physicist IRL). Now, you could ask (a) is it important to be able to cast a T1 Thoughtseize more than 90% of the time in this deck, or (b) will fixing this screw up the deck somehow? I don't know the answers to this definitively, but it's worth thinking about. My feeling is that we should try to make the minimums because T1 discard can be an utterly backbreaking play.
Now, let's talk about <>. This is pretty much the same deal, except what we really care about is enabling Thought-Knot Seer. Warping Wail might be in or out, I don't know, but a naive application of Karsten's article tells us we should have 11 mana sources. I think this is wrong. We want to cast TKS on turn 2 or 3, not turn 4. So really it should be more like 12 or 13. LordGrimpow's list has 9. On the other hand, Expedition Map does help a little bit here because we can play and crack it before we cast TKS a lot of the time. Also, Relic of Progenitus draws a card, which effectively reduces our deck size by a little, but this effect is small. So I could go either way on this one.
What I am trying to say, in short, is that we don't just magically have better mana because we don't have a splash color. We have to think about what we're doing. Playing all these colorless lands, especially Eye of Ugin (which does not pay for Thought-Knot Seer's <> requirement, by the way) makes it very hard to even support a single color. Playing 6-7 basic Swamps and 4 Urborg itself is probably not enough, and it makes our <> mana situation worse. Playing only 23 lands makes it that much harder to actually have the correct number of sources.
Consider the mana base I just proposed in the <>BW thread. It has 14/13/11 sources of B/W/C, so it's beating this deck in every way when it comes to having access to its "colors" on time.
2 Eye of Ugin
2 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Vault of the Archangel
4 Caves of Koilos
4 Marsh Flats
2 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Godless Shrine
So it's obviously possible for this deck, we just have to try harder. I think flat-out, we need to play more than 23 lands, not just for having enough sources of each color, but just for having enough sources period. We're trying to cast 6-drops reliably, for heaven's sake! Karsten also wrote an article about this, but I won't get into that right now. You can decide what to cut, but personally, for a decklist very close to what LordGrimpow posted, we can definitely have completely, uncontroversially perfect mana with 25 land:
3 Eye of Ugin
3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Ghost Quarter
6 Swamp
4 Underground River
1 Tendo Ice Bridge
This is 14 B/13 C, untapped, turn 1. Three comments:
1) The deck only runs 8-12 cards that have B in them, so I think the painlands don't hurt you much and they make it so that if you get many early B cards just by variance, you're not screwed. If you want to protect your life total more aggressively, you can run more Tendo and less Underground River. If you are very afraid of being mana screwed, you can run Sulfurous Springs or whatever instead of Tendo. Underground River is the best painland because we run Spellskite, by the way.
2) About basic Wastes: This is not needed IMO if our only <> card is Thought-Knot Seer. If we get Blood Mooned, I think it's ok to have one card disabled. If you want to run a Wastes you can't responsibly cut a black source for it. It means cutting a Ghost Quarter probably (I don't think you can cut a Temple or Eye without screwing everything up).
3) You can run a Bojuka Bog instead of a Swamp, but like all taplands, they screw up your turn 1 plays. If it's worth it, though, just do it. Raging Ravine in Jund is a great example of where it's just worth it, and you don't have the T1 Lightning Bolt consistently because of it, but Ravine is just too strong not to play. With Bojuka Bog, I don't know if it's worth it - it's up to you.
Sorry if this is all too tl;dr but I really believe people are generally way, way too greedy when it comes to lands and it irks me. This is doubly true when it comes to a "monoblack deck" like this, which people read and think "the mana must always work out because how can you go wrong with the mana base for a monoblack deck!"