3. Numegil. I know that there probably are only two mafia left, and if i had to choose two, Numegil whould be the one i would leave of my list. But i do have a small shadow of suspicion on him. It's basically how he hamerred on bought days, even though he said on day one he was no convinced Toastboy was mafia. It could be just coincidence, but, like i said, a small doubt remains, for me.
I don't see how the fact that I hammered on both days is a scum tell. I've already explained why I hammered on Toastboy two or three times so I don't want to repeat myself any longer. And then the fact that I hammered Zin on day 2 is indeed a coincidence. I posted that I would vote for him shortly (when he was L-2) when I first saw the thread for day 2. By the time I finished some real life stuff and got around to actually voting, he was already L-1.
I've never had a problem with bigfireball.com other than them being sold out of stuff. Granted, I live close to their headquarters so I'm there three times a week anyway and don't have to pay for shipping.
To those who are wondering why I lynched Toast when I was only 50% convinced: It's unlikely for any scum to make any huge mistakes on day one. As such, everyone has a base value of 3/11 chance of being scum. 50% is a notable increase above this value, and I don't think we would have gotten any higher unless the discussion lasted for several more months. And anyway, I dislike the lack of information on day one, and would have liked to move on.
The case for zindabad:
When asked why he was so concerned that Toast was town, Zindabad replied:
I don't "know" Toastboy is town. There are only a few ways to know that - have a mod flip him after death, investigate him, or be scum. The first two haven't happened, and we'll have to assume I am not scum for the sake of this discussion.
This seems like a really weak argument, since he basically just sidestepped the possibility of him being scum. Yet, he did seem rather convinced that Toast was innocent, which he himself proved was impossible unless he was scum.
And now on day 2, I really don't believe that Zindabad is truthful about being cop. It was really his only play left. And I still don't quite buy his argument that he chose to investigate a lurker over some of the more questionable people.
If Milldawg were scum, why on earth would he claim cop this early on day 2? Zindabad was suspicious enough as it was, and and he if turned out to be innocent, that would be certain suicide for Milldawg.
So, as much as I hate to hammer it on both days so far, vote: zindabad. At least this time, I'm a lot more convinced. If we're right, we lose a scum, and doc saves Milldawg during the night. If we're wrong, doc saves someone random during the night, and we lynch Milldawg tomorrow. Case closed.
@ Zindabad: if you are cop (which I doubt), why would you investigate uncreation, as opposed to some of those who were more suspicious on day one, such as myself, AE, mishramtg or WW to name a few?
It's at L-2 right now, I'll post my more detailed analysis of why I think Z is scum and cast my vote sometime in the next hour or so.
Is there any online coverage of GP:LA? I can't seem to find it for the life of me. I know several people who are playing today, and would like to check on how they are doing. If not today, is there at least going to be coverage for day two tomorrow?
This came up today at my FNM draft (when our local judge was away at GP LA...):
I control a Sharding Sphinx. My opponent plays Sarkhan Vol, and steals my Sphinx for the turn. He then wants to play Bone Splinters sacrificing the Sphinx and targeting itself (it was the only creature I had in play). Is this allowed? Supposedly, "additional costs" are payed after targets are declared, so it works. Is this correct?
Ok, well I'm not quite as convinced as some people seem to be, but I've looked over some of Toast's posts, and I am split roughly 50/50 as to whether or not he is mafia. 50% is better than anyone else at the moment however and I think is about as good as we're going to get on day one. And if he does turn out to be town, at least we only lose a vanilla townie.
Sorry for your early death in your first game, but vote:Toastboy
I'm also leaning toward him being scum right now (at least more than anyone else) for all of the reasons listed above, so I honestly wouldn't mind seeing him lynched. And as Milldawg pointed out, if we're wrong we would go after Zindabad next. However, I would like to see some final defense (role claim?) before I cast my vote. I think that should go for anyone else considering finishing him off too.
I don't see why some people think of me and second or third option as to most likely to be scum. Yes, I did make a bad suggestion early on, but I realized my faulty logic and admitted my mistake. If I was scum and realized the mistake at the time, do you really think I would have expected other people to follow along with it?
Calling for a claim on D1 is terrible play that only benefits scum, since a claim of vanilla town is meaningless and a claim of power means the scum have an easy target.
Isn't calling for a claim better than lynching them outright? And anyway, if there's a doc or similar role, doesn't it also give them an easy "target"?
I don't see how the fact that I hammered on both days is a scum tell. I've already explained why I hammered on Toastboy two or three times so I don't want to repeat myself any longer. And then the fact that I hammered Zin on day 2 is indeed a coincidence. I posted that I would vote for him shortly (when he was L-2) when I first saw the thread for day 2. By the time I finished some real life stuff and got around to actually voting, he was already L-1.
The case for zindabad:
When asked why he was so concerned that Toast was town, Zindabad replied:
This seems like a really weak argument, since he basically just sidestepped the possibility of him being scum. Yet, he did seem rather convinced that Toast was innocent, which he himself proved was impossible unless he was scum.
And now on day 2, I really don't believe that Zindabad is truthful about being cop. It was really his only play left. And I still don't quite buy his argument that he chose to investigate a lurker over some of the more questionable people.
If Milldawg were scum, why on earth would he claim cop this early on day 2? Zindabad was suspicious enough as it was, and and he if turned out to be innocent, that would be certain suicide for Milldawg.
So, as much as I hate to hammer it on both days so far, vote: zindabad. At least this time, I'm a lot more convinced. If we're right, we lose a scum, and doc saves Milldawg during the night. If we're wrong, doc saves someone random during the night, and we lynch Milldawg tomorrow. Case closed.
It's at L-2 right now, I'll post my more detailed analysis of why I think Z is scum and cast my vote sometime in the next hour or so.
Edit: correction, it's L-1
Thanks!
-numegil
I control a Sharding Sphinx. My opponent plays Sarkhan Vol, and steals my Sphinx for the turn. He then wants to play Bone Splinters sacrificing the Sphinx and targeting itself (it was the only creature I had in play). Is this allowed? Supposedly, "additional costs" are payed after targets are declared, so it works. Is this correct?
-Numegil
Sorry for your early death in your first game, but vote:Toastboy
(w00t, my least favorite day is over)
I'm also leaning toward him being scum right now (at least more than anyone else) for all of the reasons listed above, so I honestly wouldn't mind seeing him lynched. And as Milldawg pointed out, if we're wrong we would go after Zindabad next. However, I would like to see some final defense (role claim?) before I cast my vote. I think that should go for anyone else considering finishing him off too.
Isn't calling for a claim better than lynching them outright? And anyway, if there's a doc or similar role, doesn't it also give them an easy "target"?
What makes Toastboy different from the other two?
Um yeah... please elaborate?