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  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    If I am scum what the hell do I gain by lying about having an IC shot. Unless I can kill 3 players tonight AND one of Cyth/Axel shoots outside of those three I'd be screwed when tomorrow starts.
    There are any number of things that COULD happen to explain why you wouldn't be mod-confirmed the next Day, thus introducing reasonable doubt, which could result in us not lynching you for not flipping mod-confirmed Town after supposedly using your IC.

    HENCE why Az warned us NOT to rely on roles and mechanics but a player's play.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    skum lie about a lot of scums

    did you ever actually case Manders? or answer the other question(s) I asked you?
    No, he didn't, which is why he ignored you asking if he has.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Obviously that should say "I don't care if Cyan and Tom both thought you were Town..."
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I am not on board with a plan that involves killing Cythare, which will possibly make him lose, in favor of DoTA using his IC because (a) I'm not sure I believe he has this and (b) if you guys were going to require him use it, he should have done it last Night. It's a bit better since it doesn't give Scum extra kills, just extra empowerment, but still. It's a dick move to make Cythare sac himself just because this guy didn't want to use his ability last Night.

    In fact, since the last Scum is one of DoTA and Tammy as far as I'm concerned, and I 100% do NOT believe it is Tammy, I'm content to

    Vote: DoTArchon

    Quote from DoTArchon »
    Jam

    My concern with Manders is how hard she's trying to get me lynched, based on a case made on posts TIM made which I can't answer for. I did say in our initial confrontation that I'm not a very strong player, Cyan and Tom both posted that they believed I was town AND I have repeatedly pointed out that I can have the mod confirm my alignment. Despite all of this she still makes this post:

    Quote from Manders »

    I'm content with lynching him, but should we discuss empowerment/plans in the off chance he IS Town?

    A few things:
    1) Just because you can't answer for the posts doesn't make them irrelevant.
    2) I don't care if Cyan and Town both thought you were Town because GUESS WHAT?! They both thought I was Scum. In fact, Cyan went back and forth on that all game. They could be wrong.
    3) If you really can be mod confirmed, you should have taken the empowerment from Cyan and done it. There is NO EXCUSE for turning it down and not using your ability until now EXCEPT to give yourself one more day to kill at Night.

    So, yeah, nothing you've said has dissuaded me.

    Quote from Tammy »
    That is an issue.

    My problem there is how she went after bur day one with that hammer and then got after her about voting for herself but then has done it two separate times since.
    1) Bur voting for himself had nothing to do with why I voted for him.
    2) "And then got after her about voting for herself" I do not understand what you are saying here. Can you elaborate?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Tammy »
    What is the likelihood that two people have the same drawback to using their empowerment?
    Not very likely. Az's more elegant than that.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Manders »
    Quote from Megiddo »
    [quote]@dota: why would you bother leaving me alive only to savagely ignore me?
    What? How did he ignore you?
    Nevermind, I figured it out, and I would like a response, too, DoTA.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    also who IS the next likeliest scum?
    Who is the next likeliest Scum?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    no.
    In response to....?

    @dota: why would you bother leaving me alive only to savagely ignore me?
    What? How did he ignore you?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    And by "once a lynch occurs" I meant once the lynched party flips ANY alignment.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    Typed post up while waiting for a dungeon queue in WoW, remembered that the ability gave 2 of something but was a bit rushed to type up so I didn't check. With 1 scum left(I cant imagine there being more than that) then giving the extra empower shouldn't have too much of an impact and I can be proven as town. Would still force the nightkill onto me to prevent that, which either removes me from the game or leaves me as confirmed town tomorrow.

    @Manders: Others have said its possible that I'm scum but you're the one trying to build a case against me. I'm not fearmongering when I said I wold be a mislynch, just stating the facts as I see them. If I'd been around for twilight and seen Wildfire had flipped scum I would have then asked for the empowerment to prove my claim.
    You can't ask for anything once a lynch occurs.

    And your explanation is terrible. No one FORCED you to post RIGHT THEN. You could have (and would have if you were Town, I think) waited until you had time to check before posting such VASTLY wrong information.

    I'm content with lynching him, but should we discuss empowerment/plans in the off chance he IS Town?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    didnt you say that this gave all living scum 2 empowers? now it gives them 2 kills?
    Did he?

    Quote from DoTArchon »
    I have two abilities, both with drawbacks.
    The first was the attempted daykill in the spec thread that turned me into a Miller.
    My second costs 6 empowerment and my alignment gets publicly revealed by the mod at the start of the next day. Using this gives each living mafia member 2 empowerment.

    When I told Cyan about it in our private chat his response was that he'd give me his permanent +4 shot as it's worth giving the scum team the empowerment to have me mod-confirmed town. After I made the post in thread about having 4 empowerment to give away he re-iterated that I should use it since he doesn't see me being killed by scum anytime soon. I refused, and he then speculated giving the shot to Shadow (but mentioned that he believed Shadow would be a likely NK target in the near future), or Manders.
    OH *****.

    I can't wait to see THIS explanation.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from DoTArchon »
    @Manders: So despite Cyan and Tom both expressing strong town reads of my slot you're going to try your damndest to get me mislynched?

    Why are you singling me out? I'm not the only who's used PoE to decide you're one of the most likely to be the last Scum.

    Regardless, I'll answer your question: like you said, they were both Town, so they obviously believed what they said...but that doesn't guarantee they were right.

    I have a hard time believing you thought I would say anything else in response to this, so obviously you just asked this to fearmonger (what with specifying "mislynch.")

    Why didn't you address those statements that DO pertain to YOU not just your spot, like when I said you haven't done ***** but offer promises you never followed through on since you joined the game? And why are you just trying to skate by on TIM's "towniness?"

    @Everyone: I believe we can easily solve this by POE. It does reduce our available mislynches to 1, so it only works if we trust both remaining vigs are town.

    Empower me with two points and lynch the next likeliest scum. I'll use my IC shot overnight(costs 6), giving scum two kills. They'll be forced to use one on me or have me as confirmed town on the next day, which should make it easier to figure out who's left.
    This is not an option I will support. If you wanted to use your ability, it should have been done last Night. We cannot afford to give Scum extra kills now.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    DotA has been lurking non-stop since he entered the game and promising content that never gets posted.

    So not sure what you expect to get out of him.

    And, no, Axelrod's evidence, as well as the supplemental "funny stuff" I found and posted on is valid and Cythare needs to respond. So I don't think I'll be dropping that anytime soon.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Could you be any less helpful?

    Probably.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Tammy »
    Manders - We have two lynches left because there are six people right now. If we lynch town today, we are down to four tomorrow (3 if one is vigged) and then tomorrow we have our final lynch. That's two. That's assuming there's one scum left.
    It doesn't make sense to me to just assume we will mislynch Today, but whatever.

    The evidence against Cythare presented by Axelrod and the evidence against TIM (now DotA) presented by Megiddo are both strong. Since DotA can't answer for TIM, I decided to look into that evidence closer:

    Link included, here is the summary of the post, part of which Megiddo quoted:
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    So now for some thoughts. GJ is top of the scum pile. Anak is very close behind, especially given that vote right at the end. Tom is still scummy. I think Tordeck may be town, especially given how strongly GJ pushed back when the actual case for/against was pretty meh and didn't warrant such a strong defense. I am very conflicted about Manders, but currently think that she is town and is making/made some incredibly poor decisions re: Bur. I think Axelrod and D_V are town. For the time being, very happy to Vote Anak.
    I wanted to know the vote circumstances around this time. Luckily this vote count was posted 2 posts before TIM's:
    Quote from Azrael »
    Official Vote Count:

    Bur- GJ, shadow, Seppel, Manders, Anak
    Anak-Cythare, Cyan, DV
    Wildfire- Sir Chris, Tordeck,
    Tordeck-tom
    DV- Wildfire
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    Shadowlancer- TheIceMan

    9 to lynch


    Official Empowerment Count:

    DV- Tom, Manders, Cyan, Seppel, Shadow
    Seppel- Sir Chris, DV
    Axelrod- GJ
    Sir Chris- Iso
    So there was no wagon on GJ at the time, and he jumped on a wagon that was not the hot wagon at the time. This coincides with his comments about Bur in that post as he was not convinced Bur was the right lynch choice and was very vocal about it.

    Incidentally, a few posts later, Cythare posts this:
    Quote from Cythare »
    TheIceMan's most recent post is definitely coming from a town mindset.


    And yet, a few posts later, TIM makes this post:
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    What's hollow about it? The top two wagons right now are both people I have been pushing pretty consistently with the only thing of debate being who I want to push more. I am now your top scum read. Unless you think I have been shoving Anak just for the fun of it, why are joining a wagon that was being pushed primarily by Cyan and myself? It's not hollow, your posts aren't adding up.
    Let's take apart this post.

    You have not been consistently pushing Bur. Bur was null (for lack of information) through #458. Then, as soon as Manders starts to put (bad/illogical) pressure on him/her, you make the weak vote in #594, because Bur "needs more pressure." And that somehow puts him/her into the scum pile somehow, as evidenced by #604? Even though Bur has made no posts in the intervening time, and he/she was previously null for lack of info? Right. After a bunch of intervening nonsense, you next mention Bur's name in #694, and it's simply lumping him/her in with Wildfire as possible scum. If you really hate the Tordeck wagon, and are going to appeal to Manders' scumread on Bur, why not actually advocate for lynching him/her? You know, Bur, one of the two "people I have been pushing pretty consistently with the only thing of debate being who I want to push more"? (Hint: it's because Wildfire is a safe vote.)

    Then we come to Anak. Let's look back. In #720 you're not on the wagon but say you'd be OK with it. Then, all the way back to your initial vote on Anak in #139 (a very weak vote it must be said, as it's basically a straight /barn of Cyan), you've consistently lumped Anak into the scum pile with a bunch of fellow lurkers (e.g. #272, #458). You've never spent any significant time justifying your opinion and you've never tried to push your case. It's actually quite amazing that you've been reading Anak as scum the entire game but have made zero attempt justify that read (apart from the initial vote) and haven't pushed the case. Like at all.

    So, I still Anak is scum. Probably GJ's scumbuddy. But this post is a goldmine and makes me absolutely certain that GJ is scum. Unvote. Vote GJ.
    Seriously, take a look at this everyone (as well as my previous comments above re: GJ's last ~200 posts).
    thus attempting to start a wagon on GJ. I'm fairly certain it didn't go anywhere as I don't recall a big GJ wagon on D1.

    Ok, reviewed quickly, and no, it didn't go anywhere. The rest of D1 was spent discussing empowerment, discussing DV's attempt to bait Tom by claiming Neutral who wins with Scum, and the Bur lynch. Specifically to be noted is this:
    Quote from Wildfire393 »
    Empower TheIceMan. Towniest person I see at the moment.


    This, which means later I'll go find his claim and look into this further:
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    Empowering me is fine basically because it keeps it out of the hands of potential scum. It could be very useful later too, depends how the game plays out.


    And this little back-and-forth:
    Quote from Seppel »
    No seriously, if IceMan flips scum, I am so adding the phrase "abilities that do stuff" as a scumtell.
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    Quote from Seppel »
    No seriously, if IceMan flips scum, I am so adding the phrase "abilities that do stuff" as a scumtell.
    This is quite literally one of the dumbest arguments I've ever heard.
    Quote from tomsloger »
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    Quote from Seppel »
    No seriously, if IceMan flips scum, I am so adding the phrase "abilities that do stuff" as a scumtell.
    This is quite literally one of the dumbest arguments I've ever heard.
    thats seppel for you
    hes not right, is he?
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    Quote from tomsloger »
    thats seppel for you
    hes not right, is he?
    I mean, I'm town, if that's what you're asking
    Quote from tomsloger »
    it was.

    i really think you are
    but ive been fooled before by the very reasonable


    So, into D2, here:
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    I'm going to make a real post (with a look at the Bur wagon, and possibly Anak) later. For the time being, I should probably let everyone know that I'm now a miller.
    Quote from TheIceMan »
    Let's have a look back, now that we know Bur's alignment.

    D_V's #53 looks pretty good, as the "legitimately" shows evidence of genuine consideration. Scum don't tend to mentally equivocate over a read.

    I don't like Iso's #127. It feels like he's piggybacking off my #125, and I would expect Iso to give us more than this. I also don't buy the certainty in #136. Again, Iso's a good player, and these posts read much more like "I've decided to formulate an opinion" than anything else.

    I brought it up at the time, but Tom's #143 looks even worse in retrospect. It's a classic scum move - acknowledge that some townie's behavior is scummy, but find a reason not to vote them. If Tom were town I would expect him to suggest an alternate direction.

    It's interesting that Iso waffles on Tom in #148. Possible scumbuddy interaction. Tom's reply in #174 is also worth looking at (see #302 as well) - he seems overly keen to make it clear that he's not "going up to bat for" Bur. When in fact he is doing exactly that, and should be fine with acknowledging that he is.

    It is to Iso's credit in #198 that he points out Tom is defending Bur, but not trying to offer any plausible direction of his own.

    GJ first expresses an opinion about Bur in #314. I think he/she should have more of an opinion (or at least a justification for that null read) given that he/she has made a bunch of posts and spent a lot of time talking to Tom, whose main contribution to this point is "defending" Bur.

    The first real action on Bur are Manders' #569 and #580. They seem a bit too aggressive(ly dumb) to be scum.

    And then, whowouldathunkit? GJ suddenly develops a scumread on Bur and votes him/her in #592 and #594, respectively. I particularly love how this change of heart is described as a "fun fact." He/she is also at pains to emphasize that this isn't a particularly strong scum read (see #597, but if that's the case, why not vote for someone you actually think is scum? Then, once Manders unvotes Bur, meaning it's safe to take an even stronger stand, GJ's #694 does everything but say "look, obvscum over here!" The crux of the issue is that GJ's opinion of Bur is completely malleable according to what else is going on in the game, and has literally nothing to do with what Bur has/hasn't actually done.

    #655 is a sneaky vote by Shadowlancer. The joke could be a deflection, too. This is undercut totally by #728, so much so that I actually did a complete 180 on his/her alignment.

    Did Seppel just declare himself scum and announce his NK thinking in #696? (Note the terrible Bur vote too.)

    GJ's #726 is another straight /barn of Manders. #727 is an attempt to justify the vote after-the-fact by latching onto Manders' frustration and apathy.

    Iso's #749 is a really scummy post. It reeks of a) appearing to take a position; b) not actually taking a position; and c) wanting to be seen as producing content. Not to mention the point I made earlier, that Iso ought to have a better scum read than someone who's made 6 or 7 posts total, and ought to want to convince others of the validity of that read. #753 is more of the same, except with the added issue that Iso isn't even concerned about getting NK'd.

    Anak's #755 is bad, given that he/she hasn't even mentioned Bur to this point and yet isn't "dissuaded" by the claim. Good on Manders for thinking the same thing in #778.

    Wildfire's (slightly naive) concern about "outing power roles" in #769 reads as town to me.

    Tom's vote in #773 is opportunistic. It comes just as the pressure on Bur is beginning to subside.

    GJ's #784 is an interesting one. I'm not sure how much scum want to invite pressure. However, it's low risk as the pressure on him/her is minimal, and it provides a distraction from having to advocate for pushing town over the edge. Once I do begin to attack him/her, he/she uses the opportunity to push the narrative of "consistently pushing" the Bur wagon, a narrative I debunk in #807. GJ's actions do not add up from a town perspective. He/she claims to believe that Bur and Anak are both scum and he/she is simply torn between them. And yet, he/she has done nothing all game to advance either wagon. Anak has just been scum for no discernible reason, while Bur has been scum whenever there's sufficient pressure. Now that there's a chance to actually lynch one of these two "scum," he/she is spending time and energy attacking me? And then we come to #1004, where GJ pulls a 180 and gets upset that I've distracted from a Bur lynch. So what's caused the change of heart? The main "development" is that Tom - coincidentally (?) my other top scumread - has fallen under scrutiny. No slam dunk, but certainly very intriguing.

    Cythare's #788 is very equivocal. I've had a low-level bad feeling about him/her for the whole game, and this post does nothing to assuage that.

    I didn't really notice Tom's #829 the first time round, but upon review it's an absolutely meaningless post. Can't get any more obvious than "theorizing" that the same people who vote less and post less are also likely to empower less.

    Iso's #919 is notable in that Iso has already declared himself OK with a Bur lynch. Yet, there is nothing here to suggest that Bur is the scummiest player in the game through post #300 (which Iso claims to have read up to). His comment on Bur's opening post is particularly noteworthy. I agree that the post in question is "devoid of feeling," but that isn't really a tell, and then the questioning of Bur's question to D_V seems forced. More importantly, if I were town-Iso, I'd want to read the whole game and stamp my authority on it, not just go along with a lynch based on a few moderately scummy posts by a player very early in the game.

    GJ's callout to "Bur's team" in #988 feels forced. I'm not sure how Bur posting more as soon as the pressure's off is a scumtell, but GJ seems to think it is (more likely he/she "found" a reason to go nuts on Bur). Then there's #992, where he/she seems way too sure that Sir Chris is town, particularly given that Sir Chris hasn't done anything in hundreds of posts. The whole "lolswolf" and "veteran wolf" theorycrafting is just fluff masquerading as scumhunting.

    I'm not a fan of Cythare's #1016. It's engaging with my post without engaging with the substance of it.

    I think Iso has produced only one townie post the whole game, and that trend continues in #1050. He finally votes after being "on board" with a Bur lynch for ages, but is also at pains to remind us that he's only read 500 posts thus far. #1086 effectively reads "look how hard I'm trying to seem like I'm not paying attention!"

    Moving on to Day 2, GJ's #1115 is another bad vote. Recall how he spent he/she spent the latter half of Day 1 claiming that he/she was torn between Bur and Anak. Now that Anak's getting some pressure, it's time to vote WF? #1152 is also total BS given that Tom has probably said 20 times that he's looking to be read as mildly scummy. The list that follows is probably OK, but it's quite noncommittal.

    Cythare's #1183 is either naive or scummy. I've seen plenty of scumlists that way, regardless of alignment.

    So, let's recap. I don't think my reads have changed that much from D1. GJ is still my top scum pick, followed by Tom. Then probably Iso and Cythare. Anak is possible, but I don't think he's near the top of the list right now. Vote GJ.


    TIM's first 2 posts of D2.

    After review, while it is odd that he called GJ his top Scum pick then voted Anak, I think Axel's find on Cythare is a bit more terrible. Of course, this pretty much confirms, at least in my mind, that Meg is either Scum with Cythare or really bad at reading him.

    I'll need to see Cythare's response.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    6 players left. and i'm operating under the assumption that there is only one scum left.
    This doesn't explain why we have 2 lynches left.
    Posted in: Mafia
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