let Dn indicate the damage on the Nth flip
D1 = (1/2)
D2 = (3/4)*(1/2) We multiply by 3/4 because there is only a 3/4 chance that coins are flipped
D3 = (3/4)2 * (1/2) We multiply by (3/4)2 because there is only a (3/4)2 chance that ...
D4 = (3/4)3 * (1/2)
...
Dn = (3/4)n-1 * (1/2)
Notice that the ratio of expected damage in each round is 3/4 that of the previous round.
This is an infinite geometric series.
The sum of an infinite geometric series is S = A / (1 - R)
Where A is the value of the first term in the series.
The amount of expected damage in the first round is (1)
So
A = (1) = expected result in each round which is 1 damage = average of (2,1,1,0)
r = (3/4) = the recursive nature of the series
S = (1) / (1 - 3/4) = 4
The amount of expected damage is 4 or 2 per player
I have 10 fully powered multi-player EDH Decks, they are all 3 color commanders, and I play the scry lands in 50% of the decks. They are in 3 of my control decks, (Rubinia Soulsinger, Dakkon Blackblade/Oloro, Ageless Ascetic (alternate commander), and Zedruu the Greathearted. Then they are also in Nekusar (Draw 7 combo with graveyard reanimation) and Adun Oakenshield (living end, utility creatures) because both decks need the scry effect and don't do anything important until turn 3.
I think the lands are great, but they are not for every deck. For instance, a 3 color agro creature deck wouldn't want them (in a perfect world).
Now, in 1vs1 commander decks I think they are an auto include in almost every single instance. The fact that it is a dual land that allows you to filter your draws specifically in 1vs1 puts them among some of the best lands in Dual Commander.
i think the best reason to play minamo and oloro is when merfolk is more present in your meta than blood moon. If you are expecting a lot of fish, having blue lands that aren't islands is really nice. It's possible (unlikely but a possibility) that you draw both and don't have to play islands in a game, which avoids islandwalk entirely. I also play 1 vendilion clique in my version of fish and minamo can untap him.
But both are good. If you go that route, then you play Jhoira of the Ghitu. Going this route, play Inferno.
There are a couple decklists on this thread with Notion Thief. This guy seemed really good to me as well, until I drew him and realized when he is in play you cannot win. Cut.
oh geeze, i forgot about the mind over matter and temple bell. That is game over. Yeah, MoM is an auto include, cost is irrelevant.
Even in combo decks, I really don't like time walk effects. I think they are generally unfun and most of the time unnecessary. With the fork effects they get better, but if you just cast 1 each turn it's a more expensive explore.
you could also consider cards like animate dead, necromancy, and reanimate as a different route. you can get a lot of value out of those for little mana.
since this deck seems to use life attrition (phyrexian tyranny, spiteful visions, and generally not having many blockers) as its main course to victory, the best cards to counteract that are exquisite blood, sangromancer, venser's journal, and ivory tower.
I don't think anyone has brought up Jhoria of the Ghitu (may be to slow) and magus of the jar. I think the memory jar effect is the strongest of all the draw 7s. You get your 7 and unless they have instants, they get 0. Then they discard so cards like mergrim and liliana's caress get much better.
I saw mind over matter in somone else's post and think that slot should go to skirge familiar. It is easier to cast and has a similar effect. Obviously Mind over Matter is much better, but 4 blue is also very difficult. Same reason why Underworld Dreams and Seismic Assault are fringe.
Fun cards that I've included even though they don't do much: sol'knar the swamp king, silent-blade oni, wrexial, the risen deep, hypnotic specter.
My question for the original poster is how good are the fork effects? They seem good, but I don't know if they are so good that you need to play all of them. The more you have, the clunkier I would assume they get.
cards I haven't seen people bring up yet that I play in mine:
skirge familiar <--leaps and bounds better than spirit guides and lotus petals
library of leng <---prevents you from losing a draw 7 card
ivory tower <----huge effect for 1 mana when you hand is always full.
AUTO INCLUDES:
teferi's puzzle box
iron maiden
black vise
chrome mox, mox diamond, and mox opal
megrim
liliana's caress
fringe cards that do lots of damage:
ankh of mishra
zozu the punisher
duskmantle seer
inferno
phyrexian tyranny seems interesting, but it also hurts you a lot as well.
I didn't have dream halls, that card seems too good to be in EDH. This deck might get that card banned.
I also really like army of the damned in the deck. I wouldn't have thought to include it if it hadn't come as a throw in, but I have like the card a lot. The grixis and crosis charms that were also included are basically vindicates, because you cast one at the end of your opponents turn and play a draw 7. You can use it to tuck a commander if you have timetwister.
Yeap, I am cutting Nimble Mongoose and playing this card. It is nearly identical, but costs a little more, for a lot more in return. Plus it is a blue card for force of will.
I'm sorry, no this does not just go in legacy merfolk, it goes into every blue deck that was playing creatures.
WUR Delver
BUG Delver
RUG Delver
BUR Delver
UR Delver
Merfolk
Blue Devotion (when it becomes a thing)
Esper Control (because it deals with opponent's planeswalkers)
Protection from a player means this card kills all planeswalkers. It's better than progenitus because it's both castable and equipable.
The only answers are in white and black, and a lot of the solutions are cards that are not heavily played. You have lilianan and other sac creature effects and mass removal effects like terminus and supreme verdict. The only other way of beating this card, because it is non-interactive and one-sided is by playing combo.
I still don't think this card is real, and until its verified by wizards or I see the card in actual print, I will continue to hope that wizards is not this stupid
CMoriarty, that's nice and all. But in Vintage, this card makes Jace irrelevant, is a moat against MUD, and opens up a blue devotion deck. This card is too good for vintage, and I can say the same about Legacy. Think about the Blue devotion deck in Legacy with this. Its too good to be real.
How does everyone else not realize that this card is surreal and a fake?
It's boring in commander, but format warping in Legacy and Vintage.
This card is a FAKE. If it was real, it would warp Legacy and Vintage in a seriously harsh manner. There would be no reason not to play Blue in Vintage as this card single handedly smashes MUD. Which would force every player to play blue or dredge.
In legacy, the card is nearly invincible. Wrath and Liliana are the only played cards that beat it. It's simply too good and I refuse to believe it's real.
Blue devotion in both vintage and legacy would become too strong with this card.
let Dn indicate the damage on the Nth flip
D1 = (1/2)
D2 = (3/4)*(1/2) We multiply by 3/4 because there is only a 3/4 chance that coins are flipped
D3 = (3/4)2 * (1/2) We multiply by (3/4)2 because there is only a (3/4)2 chance that ...
D4 = (3/4)3 * (1/2)
...
Dn = (3/4)n-1 * (1/2)
Notice that the ratio of expected damage in each round is 3/4 that of the previous round.
This is an infinite geometric series.
The sum of an infinite geometric series is S = A / (1 - R)
Where A is the value of the first term in the series.
The amount of expected damage in the first round is (1)
So
A = (1) = expected result in each round which is 1 damage = average of (2,1,1,0)
r = (3/4) = the recursive nature of the series
S = (1) / (1 - 3/4) = 4
The amount of expected damage is 4 or 2 per player
if you are playing bouncelands in the deck, you should be running the scrylands alongside.
I think the lands are great, but they are not for every deck. For instance, a 3 color agro creature deck wouldn't want them (in a perfect world).
Now, in 1vs1 commander decks I think they are an auto include in almost every single instance. The fact that it is a dual land that allows you to filter your draws specifically in 1vs1 puts them among some of the best lands in Dual Commander.
Xiahou Dun, the One-Eyed
imperial recruiter
hunting cheetah
Meng Huo, Barbarian King
riding the dilu horse
But both are good. If you go that route, then you play Jhoira of the Ghitu. Going this route, play Inferno.
There are a couple decklists on this thread with Notion Thief. This guy seemed really good to me as well, until I drew him and realized when he is in play you cannot win. Cut.
Even in combo decks, I really don't like time walk effects. I think they are generally unfun and most of the time unnecessary. With the fork effects they get better, but if you just cast 1 each turn it's a more expensive explore.
since this deck seems to use life attrition (phyrexian tyranny, spiteful visions, and generally not having many blockers) as its main course to victory, the best cards to counteract that are exquisite blood, sangromancer, venser's journal, and ivory tower.
I don't think anyone has brought up Jhoria of the Ghitu (may be to slow) and magus of the jar. I think the memory jar effect is the strongest of all the draw 7s. You get your 7 and unless they have instants, they get 0. Then they discard so cards like mergrim and liliana's caress get much better.
I saw mind over matter in somone else's post and think that slot should go to skirge familiar. It is easier to cast and has a similar effect. Obviously Mind over Matter is much better, but 4 blue is also very difficult. Same reason why Underworld Dreams and Seismic Assault are fringe.
Fun cards that I've included even though they don't do much: sol'knar the swamp king, silent-blade oni, wrexial, the risen deep, hypnotic specter.
My question for the original poster is how good are the fork effects? They seem good, but I don't know if they are so good that you need to play all of them. The more you have, the clunkier I would assume they get.
skirge familiar <--leaps and bounds better than spirit guides and lotus petals
library of leng <---prevents you from losing a draw 7 card
ivory tower <----huge effect for 1 mana when you hand is always full.
AUTO INCLUDES:
teferi's puzzle box
iron maiden
black vise
chrome mox, mox diamond, and mox opal
megrim
liliana's caress
fringe cards that do lots of damage:
ankh of mishra
zozu the punisher
duskmantle seer
inferno
phyrexian tyranny seems interesting, but it also hurts you a lot as well.
I didn't have dream halls, that card seems too good to be in EDH. This deck might get that card banned.
I also really like army of the damned in the deck. I wouldn't have thought to include it if it hadn't come as a throw in, but I have like the card a lot. The grixis and crosis charms that were also included are basically vindicates, because you cast one at the end of your opponents turn and play a draw 7. You can use it to tuck a commander if you have timetwister.
Yeap, I am cutting Nimble Mongoose and playing this card. It is nearly identical, but costs a little more, for a lot more in return. Plus it is a blue card for force of will.
WUR Delver
BUG Delver
RUG Delver
BUR Delver
UR Delver
Merfolk
Blue Devotion (when it becomes a thing)
Esper Control (because it deals with opponent's planeswalkers)
The only answers are in white and black, and a lot of the solutions are cards that are not heavily played. You have lilianan and other sac creature effects and mass removal effects like terminus and supreme verdict. The only other way of beating this card, because it is non-interactive and one-sided is by playing combo.
I still don't think this card is real, and until its verified by wizards or I see the card in actual print, I will continue to hope that wizards is not this stupid
How does everyone else not realize that this card is surreal and a fake?
It's boring in commander, but format warping in Legacy and Vintage.
In legacy, the card is nearly invincible. Wrath and Liliana are the only played cards that beat it. It's simply too good and I refuse to believe it's real.
Blue devotion in both vintage and legacy would become too strong with this card.