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  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - The Day is Bright and Still Full of Terrors
    Chris, what choice did GJ make that you were lauding in 2134?
    Quote from Tubba Fett »
    @Cantrip
    I know you said you weren’t going to elaborate more right now, but sod it, I’m asking.
    Did you Do A Thing, or was The Thing fine for you? Someone compared your role to KJ from DiTF, and as I recall KJ had no say in who was checked. If you picked, why did you pick Re?
    I did a Thing, and yes, I picked, but it was a choice among limited options rather than free range.
    @Cantrip: Going to give a justification for that vote?
    I did (2121, in which I responded to you...why are you not reading my posts?).

    Also, can you explain why you don't like Winds' pre-flip reaction to X=Y's shot?

    GJ, Your double fishing expedition: last line of 2111, only line of 2112. The former is a side-eyes invitation to me to confirm or deny how my role works, and the latter is a general push in the direction of "any reason we shouldn't be hinting/claiming alt-win-cons". And you didn't answer my question as to why you thought I was voting you because of my position on Vaimes/Chris.

    Also, I got the impression from your 2175 that you were mildly shaming Killjoy, saying that KJ's reason for not voting Rhand (he felt bad pressuring someone with time constraints) is a poor one, but then I feel like you offered up a similarly weak reason in 2181 for not voting Rhand D1 (you would have felt bad if Rhand had flipped town, given DitF). I feel like there's a crack in that mindset, but maybe I'm misreading your 2175?

    Killjoy, you seem to be finding a lot of opportunities to shade Rhand without committing to an attack on him. It feels very sneaky. As far as I can tell, your only real volley was in 1454, where you declared his process was "off", and that you didn't believe he was being genuine. I know he hasn't exactly posted the full works of Tolstoy since then, but what--if anything--have you seen in his posts after that point?

    Tubba, This might sound strange, but I feel sorta honored to be one of your "if I had two shots" targets, especially when Tom's your other. I would love to be leading this game right now, but that work project I mentioned that was supposed to be done two weeks ago? Yeah, I *just* finally got it sorted out today, and that was with a lot of extra night and weekend work. So I've been a little short on time. This weekend being a holiday weekend is going to mean that I can't post a ton, but I should be able to post some, and then I should have more time in general starting Tuesday (yes, I realize a deadline is coming up shortly after that, but can't be helped). Anyway, I don't think I've *ever* been the choice of a "who would you vig, go", and it makes me smile a little.

    As for X=Y's shot choice...I feel like it makes him more likely town than scum. There was a lot of discussion of "good" vig targets before he named 1053 as his target in 2182, enough possibilities (Hunger/Tubba/Kami/GJ/Rhand/Tom/me) that scum could have cherry-picked town from among the discussion subjects and made things easy for himself. There's a slight possibility that scum!X=Y saw something that made him think 1053 was a strong power role (or maybe there was a rolecop, I guess), but otherwise, I don't think scum sees that smorgasbord of "good" vig targets and veers off into 1053 territory. I'm not a fan of how he just dropped a bomb in the thread without discussion (and I'd be sorta put out if he had targeted me), but since he said he was really busy, I can understand why he did what he did.

    Also, I am somewhat pleasantly surprised, even with a town target, as I had it in my head that Rod had fake-dayvigged, Shadow had given fun flavor as mods generally should do, and Rod had capitalized on that with a "oh, bummer it's a 50-50 shot, wink, wink" to draw the NK.

    Tom, I think I remember you doing running votal analysis as scum in a previous game, but I don't have time to research it. Do you do that as either alignment? It's making me want to vig you because if you come up scum, there's a lot to be said for which votecounts you're highlighting and how.

    Vaimes, I already indicated that I think the throne would be wasted on me (not that I think I'm going to suddenly be thrust into power any time soon, given my abysmal activity).

    Shinichi, you are maintaining a healthy post count, but I don't see very much substance to your posts. That is, there seems to be a lot of fluff there. Maybe that's a byproduct of how you catch up (as demonstrated in 2213 where you ponder why 1053 was the target when X=Y had already given a reason), but it still feels...like you're not really committing on anything. So do me a favor: point to two strong stances you've taken within the last 15 posts you've made. I say two because there is at least one in there, but I want to see you find one more.

    @All: I'm feeling stoked because my work issue has finally been resolved and I'm going to be able to participate at least a little more than before (hopefully a LOT more), so an invitation: it's open season on Cantripmancer. Come at me. Ask me questions. Attack. Smear. Vote. Force me to engage so I don't squander my newfound free time on frivolities.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Obvious reject mission. I think I'm one of the only ones who thinks Rhand is town, but I'm not on the proposed list, so... Thumbs Down

    Riku, walk me through your 903. Not sure how you arrive at your conclusion.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    If this mission goes, we lose. There are two scum on it. I'm (obviously) rejecting.

    Wisp, talk to me about your 843. What's confusing to you?

    LnG, I can see your thought process in 845, but if I'm scum with Shadow and Rhand, I always approve mission 3; no way I take a chance that a dream mission like that doesn't go through. I would have found some way to justify supporting it to explain my yes vote.

    Shadow, in 851 are you saying you don't want to see this mission go through because the voting data will be telling?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - The Day is Bright and Still Full of Terrors
    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    @Cantrip: Why is them being town helpful? Would it have been less helpful if they had been scum?
    Where did I say that them being town was helpful?
    Multiple high posters being dead and town will hopefully help me become a productive part of this game.
    Oh, I thought you were talking about RE. Wisp and Grape being town is helpful to my reread because while I'm sure their posts have value and are likely frequently insightful, they're still town and thus skimming or even skipping their posts isn't a horrible idea because they quite possibly could be--and often will be--wrong. If they were scum, I'd be more inclined to really scrutinize their posts for interactions, tells, motivations, etc.

    GentlemanJ, I'm definitely enjoying King Vaimes, and I still have Chris in my undecided pile. I didn't vote you for that; I voted you because you fished for information two posts in a row, and that's not cool. Why did you jump to the conclusion that I was voting you because of my position on Vaimes/Chris?

    xequalsy, by page 13 I had made a total of 8 posts. I can see you liking several of those posts, but to give me a townlean as, what, your fourth alignment read of the game (first three being Tom/Chris/DV-ish) based on those 8 posts....rings insincere. Especially with the generic "probing and engaging" rationale. To be frank, it feels like the kind of thing I'd do as a scum replacement: come into the thread and town read a few low-posters so that I could point back at those reads when they died. But I realize the kind of thing I'd do is quite frequently NOT the kind of thing anyone else would do, so... I don't find you scummy for the bare bones town-lean, but it definitely made me raise an eyebrow.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Can't give you my gun-to-head scum team yet, trying to sort LnG/KJ/Riku. Right now I'm at:

    Scum: Wisp, 2 of LnG/KJ/Riku

    Town: Me, Rhand, Shadow, the remaining of LnG/KJ/Riku

    Wisp, what am I even asking you? Did you even read my post? You and Rhand are a dichotomy. Flowing from that, either the town are you, Shadow, Riku, and me, or it's Rhand, probably Shadow, me, and ???. But for the town to be you, Shadow, Riku, and me, KJ/Rhand/LnG would have had to make some very odd voting choices. So odd that I find it unlikely that they're scum. Hence you are. But I really felt like you were town based on how you handled 2.2, so I was hoping you could show me where my reasoning in 829 was faulty, that is, how a scum team of KJ/Rhand/LnG could make sense. You just posted that that team is highly unlikely, which I agree, which means you're scum.

    Regardless of LnG's questionable announcement on 5.1, I would have rejected it because it didn't include me, and we have to have every town on the mission or we lose.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - The Day is Bright and Still Full of Terrors
    I'm fairly baffled at xequalsy's town lean on me from as few posts as I have.

    Vote Gentleman Johnny
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - The Day is Bright and Still Full of Terrors
    @Cantrip: Why is them being town helpful? Would it have been less helpful if they had been scum?
    Where did I say that them being town was helpful? It's helpful to me because now I have two perspectives that I feel like I can trust. It would have been more helpful if they were scum, but I'll take a start to a town block if I can't get confirmed scum. This question feels really odd. What are you getting at?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from LnGrrrR »
    I am not scum, for one thing.
    I didn't think I would have to specify that I'm looking for responses from my town block. Obviously you, Rhand, and KJ are going to say that it doesn't work because you're town.
    Quote from LnG »
    Besides the goofy communication theory, why would mission 2 pass with me, KJ and Rhand on it? You dont think we wouldve voted it down if we were all informants?
    One of the difficult parts of this game is deciding who passes and who fails if multiple scum go on a mission together. Especially on an early mission where you didn't control the dummy, I could see all three of you being hesitant to fail (because three fails would be disastrous), and simply deciding to take the town cred and use it to demolish subsequent missions.
    Quote from LnG »
    Tell me why Shadow is town in both your worlds.
    In the first world, if Wisp is town, then Rhand is scum. Rhand wasn't on mission 4.2, but there were two fails and I dummied Shadow, which means that the team is Rhand + 2 of you/KJ/Wisp (but again, Wisp is town, so it's you and KJ).

    In the second world, Wisp framed Rhand, so Wisp is scum, and Rhand is town. But Shadow passed as the dummy and there were still two fails on 4.2, so that would mean that all three scum were on 4.2. That in itself isn't horribly unlikely, but Shadow just happens to be the scum who plays it safe and votes pass while his buddies vote fail...on a mission that if only one of them voted fail they would lose? Possible, but I think it's unlikely. Slightly more likely if Shadow suspected I was going to dummy him, but... I think Shadow is simply town.

    Ok, with a little time to look over the missions:

    1.1 I propose Cantrip, LnG, and Wisp. LnG and Rhand approve, KJ rejects, no conflict with my World1 scumteam.
    1.2 LnG proposes....my W1 scumteam. That's a little problematic, I guess. I mean, LnG could have proposed it with intent to have the whole team pass and set them up for future missions, but the standard of a passed mission is "send that mission again with +1", so at some point down the line they would have had to deal with "who fails so that we don't out our whole team". I suppose LnG could have proposed it expecting it to fail, with the benefit of being able to point to this mission and say "why would I propose my whole scumteam", but then why wouldn't he have mentioned that when I asked players to poke holes in my W1 team? That...gives me pause.
    2.1 Wisp proposes KJ, Lng, Rhand, Wisp. LnG and KJ vote yes, Rhand votes no, mission passes, but I explain why that's a possibility above.
    3.1 Rhand proposes Rhand, LnGrrrR, KJ, Cantrip. LnG and Rhand vote yes, KJ votes no. Rhand is under suspicion now, though, so it makes a little more sense for him to propose his whole team, knowing that it's almost certain to be rejected.
    3.2 KJ proposes KJ, LnGrrrR, Wisp, Riku. LnG votes yes, KJ and Rhand vote no. This actually doesn't make sense to me. If KJ is scum with LnG, then he could have easily dummied LnG, failed the mission, said he dummied someone else, sowed distrust and confusion, etc. I need to reread why he finally decided to reject.
    3.3 Shadow proposes KJ, Wisp, LnG, Rhand. KJ and Rhand vote yes, LnG didn't vote. Again, feels odd that Rhand and KJ would approve knowing that even if Shadow dummied one of them, there'd still be two with confirmed votes, and--again--if none of them fail the mission, they lose. I don't think we get pass/pass/fail in this mission with my W1 scumteam without some really solid communication.
    4.1 Riku proposes Riku, Killjoy, Lngrrr, Cantrip and Wisp. KJ, LnG, and Rhand all vote no. That makes a little more sense, maybe, as they need two fails and only two of them are on the mission, so a successful dummy ends the game, but then there's...
    4.2 I propose Cantrip, Wisp, LnG, Killjoy, and Shadow. Same number of W1 scum on the mission, and LnG and Rhand both approve. So unless they were REALLY afraid that Riku would successfully dummy KJ or LnG on 4.1 and I *wouldn't* dummy either of KJ or LnG on 4.2, that doesn't make any sense whatsoever.

    Carp. The easy world doesn't really make sense. Unless, I guess, LnG proposed his team in 1.2 expecting it to fail and they've had to ride that out this whole time, which would be hilarious, but then there are several voting choices that really don't make sense.

    Wisp, this makes me think it more likely that you really did frame Rhand in 2.1. What am I missing in my musings above that makes a scumteam of KJ/Rhand/LnG make sense?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - The Day is Bright and Still Full of Terrors
    I've read D2.

    1053, why do you say in 2027 that there's at least 3 scum on Grape's wagon?

    I have gotten a lot of little scum pings from Shin's posts, but I'm not sure I can articulate why quite yet, especially since I missed a bunch of D1 posts, so hold my feet to the fire if I don't follow up on this soon.

    Killjoy, Re: RE, I did a Thing, and so RE's town. I'm still leaving it at that for the time being.

    This post is insufficient, and I apologize. Multiple high posters being dead and town will hopefully help me become a productive part of this game.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Gah, didn't even finish my thought.

    I basically have two worlds:

    • Wisp is town, Rhand is scum, Shadow is town, Riku is town.
    • Wisp is scum, Rhand is town, Shadow is very likely town because otherwise all three scum were on 4.2 and Shadow miraculously chose to pass when his buddies chose to fail, Riku is unknown.

    Still think town!Wisp is highly likely. In that world, town is me/Wisp/Shadow/Riku, and scum is Rhand, LnG, and KJ. Someone who has time: tell me why that scum team doesn't work or is unlikely.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    I'm in some trouble at work (partially my fault, but partially not, thankfully), even after spending most the weekend working on the problem. If I can't get it fixed by today, I'll replace out, much to my dismay.

    @Wisp: Why are you asking me why I dummied Shadow? When I put my team together, he was my "well, I don't want to add anyone else to this team".

    LnG's proposal doesn't have me on it, which means it will fail, so I'm rejecting the mission. I basically have two possible worlds,

    More analysis to come if I can get my work stuff resolved. Sorry I suck.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    I don't have a lot of time, unfortunately, but I dummied Shadow and he voted pass. For whatever that's worth in this situation. I'm no longer sure on anything. Still feel like Wisp had zero reason to frame Rhand while passing the mission, but I guess there could be a really long game there. Bare minimum, I feel like we need to start with figuring out which of these two worlds is more likely and go from there:

    town!Wisp => scum!Rhand => town!Riku
    scum!Wisp => town!Rhand => ???!Riku

    It sure would be easier if the first world were the case.

    I'll try to post more later tonight.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    and nothing I say should be confusing you, if you are still hedging on me and Rhand, and you are town, then this game is already over for town
    Nope, from the way you handled mission 2, I'm pretty much locked at you-town, Rhand-scum. Your "meh" wasn't the source of my confusion; the general approval consensus is what's throwing me.
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Cantrip: scum might be lying about whether they'd approve to get you to alter the mission. If they actually ended up approving, then that would be a problem.
    Yeah, that's what I mean about reverse psychology.

    I feel like buckling to the possibility of reverse psychology isn't going to lead to any good info (and possibly result in mission 4.5 landing on Rhand). I'm going to:

    Propose Mission 4.2: Cantrip/Wisp/LnG/Killjoy/Shadow

    I guess if scum don't want this, I'm calling their bluff, and they either have to reject it (and be outed) or approve it (and we win). If there's two scum on this mission, then it'll get approved and I'll have to do my best with dummy selection.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on A Game of Thrones Mafia - Day 2 - The Day is Bright and Still Full of Terrors
    @RE: Wasted or not, I had a reason.

    I feel like the Rhand wagon formed without resistance, and I don't know that I trust that.

    I would be ok voting Wisp or Grape to prevent a no lynch, but I think I'd still prefer Shinichi.

    Vote Shinichi
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on One Last Job Proposal 5.2
    ...four approvals, one "no, but actually ok", and one "meh". So are there two scum in that list, or are the scum trying reverse psychology? Now I want to propose Cantrip/Riku/Rhand/Seppel/Ecophagy.... /s

    Like...the strongest pushback is "no...well, ok" and "meh"? Hmm. I'm going to have to think on this.
    Posted in: Mafia
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