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  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Meh, I wanted to take some time to sum up where I ended up on the two cops, but I really don't know where I am now. Still feel pretty strongly that they can't both be town? But also feel like there are solid reasons for both to be town/for neither to fake claims. Frown

    More when I have time. It's the weekend, but we're getting closer to deadline, so I'll do my best to contribute sooner rather than later.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    I started off looking at Shadow's posts from the perspectives of true N0 Peek Cop on Vezok vs. scum possibly planning on fake-claiming something cop-like (possibly because Shadow may not have had such a plan/could have just been Wisp deciding to run with something). With that in mind, I was mostly looking to see if there was anything that specifically supported Shadow as the true N0 Peek (or specifically demolished it), since if that slot is scum, there's no guarantee that he was aiming for what Wisp ended up doing, so speculation in that direction would have been doubly speculative.

    However, as I was iso'ing, I realized that there's a bit of conversation about Vez possibly being scum around pages 4/5, so I reread everything until Shadow replaced out, hoping to find times when Shadow should have claimed his check.

    I'm putting this here after previewing my post: Below are my thoughts and musings; not everything reflects what I think is likely. I will be happy to which is which upon request, but I sorta ran out of time and I don't want to lose all this, so my apologies for the thought vomit. :/

    Vez RVS could still be early distancing/voting buddy!Shadow.

    (Aside: this would be hilarious if Vaimes was completely being honest.)

    Emiko, can you detail why you thought this?

    KJ questioning town!Silver's town read on KJ is a good sign for KJ. Most of that post feels pretty solidly townie, actually.

    KCC talks about Vaimes and votes Vez, but doesn't provide any reasoning.

    First real pressure on Vez is 3 posts from Tom.

    KCC is the next post and she explains why the Vez vote (she doesn't believe that his RVS stance is real, something I agreed with at the time).

    Shadow asks Tom about "not Vez like".

    I chime in on not believing Vez's RVS stance.

    If Wisp saw this post before claiming, I think it's highly unlikely he chooses to townfirm Vez over any other random town...and I certainly don't see Shadow deciding that Vez is the best choice to fake townfirm and passing that idea on to Wisp to cling to when Shadow hadn't said anything in-thread that committed him there...and really, I think Wisp is familiar enough with Vez to know that Vez pretty easily comes under fire...hrm, did I just talk myself out of the likelihood of scum!Wisp faking a clear on town!Vez? And as risky as it would be to fake a cop check (period), it's twice as risky to fake a N0 peek on a buddy, since you couldn't even fall back on "oh maybe Vez is godfather lol" (because that goes beyond bastard modding).

    Um. Ok, well, on with the read, I guess.

    Shadow seems to be implying something with his [redacted], but I don't feel like having an N0 peek precludes D1 participation? Oh, right, possibly this was because Modern wasn't over yet.

    This and this also feel unlikely to come from scum, even knowing that Shadow is wily.

    Also like Vaimes defusing Tom v. Silver.

    Reading all these back and forths between Tom and Silver with KK pop-ins attacking Silver really reinforces that town are their own worst enemy. Frown

    Vaimes has an epiphany that Shadow is town and votes Vez for "pouncing" on Shadow. His next post also doesn't feel like something scum would feel inclined to do.

    Something about this post from KCC feels off (this would be one of the things that might point to you being buddies with KCC, Vaimes, but could also come from scum!KCC trying to fake ties with you).

    There are a few other mentions of Vez in negative light, but nothing significant. Shadow pops in to debunk my Silver/Tom scum theatre tinfoil, but no mention of Vez.

    Mild scum-reference to Vez from Silver, but then a few posts later Silver keeps Vez just a smidge under null.

    Tom finds Vez pretty suspect.

    If Vez and Shadow/Wisp are buddies, this is the kind of post I'd expect Vez to make to get off of voting Shadow, but that's not a strong impression.

    This and this would also be cute little winks if Vez/Shadow were buddies.

    And then Shadow replaces out in 547.

    So I had thought there was a little more pressure on Vez than there really was (lots of people pondering and finding little things, but no solid pushes that weren't immediately eclipsed by other reads), and I was hoping Shadow's lack of anything-Vez was indicative in a vacuum, but as I said before, I could totally see Shadow holding onto the peek until Vez came under serious scrutiny (and crumbing EoD1 in case he, Shadow, got killed), but there just wasn't a lot of Vez-centric conversation.

    So this was a lot of work to...really muddy how I feel about the likelihood that Wisp is scum. Frown

    Wisp, Did you ever explain why you claimed when you did? I can't remember and can't easily find it right now if you did.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from Vaimes »
    He literally accused me of mentioning my replace out specifically to get townread lmao.
    And?
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Also Cantrip no offense but...your grasp on my scum range sucks. You owe it to me to not tinfoil for the sake of tinfoiling.

    So walk me through your thoughts nice and slow.
    I'm not tinfoiling. When I was reviewing KCC, I saw a lot of back and forth between the two of you that I felt could come from buddies. I'm nowhere near actively pursuing that, though, unless KCC flips scum. And I'm townreading KCC, so I don't really have huge concerns that you're her buddy. If you really want me to highlight what I saw, I guess I can go back and see if actually laying it out results in a strong "yes buddies" or "no not" feeling, but I don't feel like that's the most productive use of my limited time right now.

    Also: no offense taken.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Cantrip, if KCC is a plausible buddy, who's our third? Because I came into this Day proposing a KCC/Rhand/Meg team.
    I'm bad at world building in general, but explain why you proposing a team that includes KCC (or scum reading KCC) means you can't be her buddy?
    Why would I bus a buddy who’s planning on fakeclaiming Cop?
    That's a pretty easy distancing move + gives you a chance to "reassess" when she claims cop. *looks down at the quote below this one*
    Quote from Vaimes »
    And now that I’ve thought on it some more, I kind of struggle to see KCC CC’ing Last as scum toDay. And she’s forcing a dichotomy, to boot.

    If we lunch one of them, either way the gambit is ruined, and wasted on a PR that used its shot in pregame.
    Despite my snarky comment just before this, I think these are really good points. Unfortunately, they're coming from someone who could possibly be a buddy with KCC, so if it's a scum gambit, you had plenty of time to hash out these really good points ahead of time. But again on the flip side, it's hard to believe that a you/KCC/??? team would think it worth the risk, seeing as how if we lunch Wisp and he flips town, not only is Vez confirmed town, but KCC gets a lot of scrutiny. So...I'm still at "KCC town, Wisp probably scum".
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Out of curiosity though, Why do you think you and last can't be scum together?
    Have you not seen the way he's treated me all game?
    Describe it to me/highlight a post or two you feel exemplifies it?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Part of me wants to massclaim Today since my setup gaming brain tells me there's most likely just one more piece of town power out there at most. And it's possible there's none left. that would help POE/sorting through the claims.
    If there *is* one more town PR, what does that do to the theory of 2x town cops for you? If no one else is power, does that make it likely, in your opinion, that both Wisp and KCC are town?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    I'm glad vezok/vaimes are skeptical of KCC's claim. I was thinking about that on my way home and I don't especially like the way it was handled, which I'll mostly sum up by saying i feel like KCC is too smart to check Emiko.
    I feel like this is a little insulting to KCC. She explained her reasoning, and I can actually see that possibility.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    The other thing scum would want to do here is sow uncertainty about the claims and try to get us to lynch there. Obviously, lynching KCC, finding that she is town, and then immediately going to lynch Last would be gg.
    Out of curiosity, why specifically highlight this possibility but not the opposite (lunching Wisp, finding that he is town, and then immediately going to lunch KCC)?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Cantrip: looking at... wisp and me? rhand... vaimes. notably NOT vezok despite wisp. I am curious how cantrip thinks vezok will be flipping scum in his scenario though. he is OK with leaving all of the confirmed players alive for Today.
    ...? I'm not strongly pushing lunching one of the cop claims, but I said I think it's unlikely that they're both town, and even though I like the idea of leaving them both alive, I think it would put us in a bad position toMorrow if we don't correctly lunch scum toDay. What are you talking about with how I think Vez will be flipping scum in my scenario??? I'm pretty much 95% sure Vez is town, regardless of Wisp's alignment.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ...Circling back a bit, if we ARE in this world and there is a PR within the 5 uncleared, they should just claim now. that takes it from 2 available to 1.
    I'm not sure this is good advice. Maybe it's the case...but maybe not.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    here are some worlds I won't consider:
    1) Last is town, vezok is scum: I'm not expending brainpower on this, but I will have cross words with somebody postgame if this is the case.
    2) KCC is town, Emiko is scum: Same as above; I'm not aware of any softbans on godfathers/ltd. cop but in a non-micro/non-specialty that doesn't seem fair.
    3) last and KCC are both scum: I don't see this being possible for a variety of reasons, like lack of cc, game balance, etc.
    /barn
    Quote from Megiddo »
    World 1A:
    Last is town, Vezok is town
    KCC is scum, Emiko is Town

    World 1B
    Last is town, vezok is town
    KCC is scum, emiko is scum

    World 2A
    Last is scum, vezok is town
    KCC is town, emiko is town

    World 2B
    Last is scum, vezok is scum
    KCC is town, emiko is town

    I think world 1B is unlikely. Scum KCC doesn't need to gambit to townclear emiko. I think Emiko was not at huge risk of being lynched here. I think it makes more sense to softclear a townie than to protect a buddy. KCC would have known while discussing this claim and while doing it that it would create this weird 4-player dichotomy. She would know that there would be potential that the town treats all claims as true, and that to maximize POE she would want to NK specifically Vezok, as that preserves the question of Last's alignment and keeps him open as a mislynch option (shooting Last, as has been covered already, does not leave Vezok as a ML option).
    I agree with this assessment, and I certainly know that if I were fake-claiming a blue cop result, doing so on my buddy would feel all kinds of horrible risky. Pretty sure neither 1B nor 2B is likely.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    I don't feel especially strong about worlds 2B or 2B (aka, scum last). The way he just ran the claim out there in his third post doesn't seem like a calculated move?
    That's really the biggest thing keeping me from just going all in on Wisp. And maybe that was his plan, to specifically be audacious in the face of just getting into trouble for claiming hastily. If so, I applaud his boldness, because it's definitely giving me pause.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    One thing that gives me pause is that shadow made almost zero mention of vezok in all of his posts. almost zero!
    203: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=203
    444: https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/community-forums/mafia/814379-eurovision-mafia-day-2-blin-no-more-vodka?comment=444
    With this kind of role i'd usually expect something very coy to look back on and say "see?"
    though maybe the scum play here has gotten too savvy for that to work. That said, the two posts from shadow are plausibly from somebody who knows that vezok is town.
    In short, I kind of buy it? it wouldn't be scum/scum because shadow wouldn't say what he said if he knew vezok were SCUM. and scum/town doesn't feel right with how last handled it.
    I want to look back at posts myself, but I generally agree with this. *I* probably would have breadcrumbed a wink in my first post or two, but probably the best way to handle this (if you don't have to claim or just say it like Wisp did) is to make a strong/cryptic town read on Vez near the end of the Day so that if you die N1 it's obvious who your peek was, so it's not that surprising that Shadow hadn't before he replaced out.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    > cantrip's 1299 post read like a mark zuckerberg senate testimony: answering the questions but failing to read the room. could be scum.
    Unpack this for me, Meg. How did I fail to read the room there?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    > KCC gives me the jibblies. I'm still stuck on how EOD1 went. could be scum.
    Can you be specific on this, too, please? What didn't you like about EoD1?
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Out of curiosity though, Why do you think you and last can't be scum together?

    because this would amazing scum theater
    Can you point me to some strong examples of interactions that you feel would be "amazing scum theatre" between you and Vaimes?
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    @Cantrip
    Not thinking of the implications is why I think it's scummy. I think town would think of those implications and not voice the question in-thread, especially not in a way that invites speculation like that.
    ok that assessment is fair from your pov but its also definitely depends on the player and their personality, and not a strong in anyway, I vary rarely think about the implications of my posts when I am town since I dont see need be self-aware of what I am saying
    I mostly agree that it's not a strong indicator (and also definitely player-dependent), but it certainly makes me lean toward you being scum over KCC.

    KCC, I know you're on V/LA (until deadline!), but when you have the chance, can you talk about the difference in your perspective on Vezok in 208 and 281?

    Planning to look at Shadow/Wisp posts next.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Cantrip, if KCC is a plausible buddy, who's our third? Because I came into this Day proposing a KCC/Rhand/Meg team.
    I'm bad at world building in general, but explain why you proposing a team that includes KCC (or scum reading KCC) means you can't be her buddy?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    @Cantrip
    That end of post rhetorical feels like the kind of thing scum would say to try and flush out protective roles. You're not going on record as having globally role-fished (even declaiming it in advance as WIFOM), but you could use the responses and ways players respond to try and identify doctors/bodyguards. I don't see any reason for town!cop to invite public speculation on why they weren't killed.

    i honestly didnt think of this implications, you can reach all you want though though
    Not thinking of the implications is why I think it's scummy. I think town would think of those implications and not voice the question in-thread, especially not in a way that invites speculation like that.

    It may not be a strong tell, but I don't think it's a reach.

    Wisp, KCC, how likely do each of you think it is that the town power role line up is N0 Peek/1-shot Cop/1-shot Vig/??? Especially in a game billed as low-complexity?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Ok, I read KCC's D1 iso, and I didn't see any breadcrumbs or indications that she was cop (or power), but that's as it should be with a cop. Things I found of interest:
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    you appear to be more nervous than is normal for this time .
    No, quite the opposite, I'm completely in my element here. Low complexity, behavior driven game, with lots of great players. I'm excited
    It feels a little off for KCC to mention the bolded if she's a power role, maybe.
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Is this townTom? I think this is townTom. I like townTom
    I feel like Tom is an unlikely candidate for scum to choose to unilaterally town in this way. Maaaaaybe if KCC sussed him as a power role and wanted to go on record early as liking him knowing he'd be high on the kill list, but...generally not the kind of play choice I think would come from scum.

    I'm not sure this thought...
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from vezokpiraka »
    I usually wait for a claim or claim myself to get out of RVS, but this is low complexity and I don't really expect claims.

    We do RVS because that's how we've always done it. It's not like any RVS reason is actually solid ever, bar a scumclaim.
    I'm having trouble believing that a majority of your games have had a claim that early

    Matches up with this response shortly thereafter:
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Wait. Wait. Wait.

    Back when I played, we would force Vez to claim early because scumVez claims were a hilarious catastrophe and a free lynch. Did that actually just get incorporated into Vez's standard play?
    I didn't see a lot that pinged me one way or the other after that until Wisp claims. I believe that KCC was regarded as a fairly good player back in the day, so I wouldn't expect her to make it obvious that she's cc'ing Wisp, but it still feels a little odd that it takes so long for her to say anything about it. Here are the nine posts KCC makes after Wisp claims (none of which weigh in on Wisp's claim in any way):
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Oh, well I guess I can say it since you claimed.

    I thought shadow was a PR!

    Oh.

    I thought your vote was just to get him more involved here, and then realized it was pointless with him just being busy solving Modern
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    probably at least one wolf in Meg/KK, based on vote count movements I think
    but I also have read very little of their posts

    I've read all of their posts, and agree that's a good place to be

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Vaimes »
    But yeah I thought shadow was deliberately trying not to be NK’d.
    Maybe. I just know if I was in lylo in one game and early day1 in another, they're getting like a 90/10 split of my attention, so I assumed it was that

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Killjoy »
    I really wanna stay on tom but that Meg wagon looks really pure to me.

    There's also like 8 or 9 people scumreading Meg, but he's holding at 3 votes, which is a great sign

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from KoolKoal »
    Because being wrong is a scumtell Teach

    Unvote vote KoolKoal

    The mindset of this response is absolutely a scumtell. There's no push back, no challenge, no standing up for his read. KK just accepts that his description of rhands play is wrong and defends with that not being a tell.

    I can't see this post coming from someone who believes in their read.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from KoolKoal »
    Or, I said something I thought was quick and clever (It wasn’t, I was just tired-posting like an idiot again) and then came back to it with a fresh mind in the morning.

    That doesn't make it better. The fact you didn't think the post through actually makes it worse. Your snap reaction didn't come from a place of thinking you're right, but from a place of knowing you are wrong

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from KoolKoal »
    Um, no?

    I was being sarcastic. Is that not obvious?

    I mean, yeah, it's obviously sarcasm, but that doesn't change anything?

    You sarcastically said...
    Quote from KoolKoal »
    Because being wrong is a scumtell Teach

    Unraveling the sarcasm here, you're saying being wrong is not a scumtell, and you shouldn't be voted for that. But... that entirely relies on you being wrong, and more importantly, being wrong and knowing that you are wrong

    -I'm way more confident on KK than Meg now. 0 chance of voting rhand

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from KoolKoal »
    No, I said that because all Rhand actually accused me of was being wrong. And it is, in fact, possible to be wrong and town at the same time.

    True. And that's a reasonable defense Day2, after pushing a lynch that flipped town Day1.
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Mm, yeah, see this? This is suspicious wagon growth. I don't see how what KK said is indicative of anything, in context it was very obviously meant to be a silly quip to a "you're wrong, here's a vote" post.

    Again, yes, obviously a silly quip, but not one that comes from someone who thinks they are right.

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Panic?

    You don't think this...
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Mm, yeah, see this? This is suspicious wagon growth. I don't see how what KK said is indicative of anything, in context it was very obviously meant to be a silly quip to a "you're wrong, here's a vote" post.

    ...is an overreaction to 3 votes?
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Because I was townreading most of those naked votes? It wasn't even five, it was uh. Damn I forget, me/tom/one other townread, and meg.
    you, Tom, last, Vez, Meg

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Vaimes »
    At the time I had no issue with it because, from my point of view, that's four villagers in a row on Rhand.

    Okay. And can you explain more your issues with the growth of the kk wagon?
    That's a LOT of posts to not say anything about a pretty high-profile thread topic, including the first one where she agrees with a wolf hypothesis that Wisp puts forth. That said...when she does weigh in, it does feel like she's being pretty pointed about it:
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    the cop check is suspicious .
    I'm not clearing either of them on it yet, but I'm also not worried about it Today. And shadows posting was fine considering he was busy with another game at lylo

    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    @meg: I can kinda see a KK/Cantrip thing making sense, but it's pretty dependant on KK being scum to begin with...

    I mean, I do like the odds on KK, but I'm not going to start hunting for buddies without a flip
    This feels pretty unlikely to come from scum (unless KCC's scum with me, I realize, but *I* know that's not a concern).
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from tomsloger »
    i dont think the reasons hes being voted are particularly indicative and he responded fine to a wagon, cantrip more likely to flip scum, and i care more about lynching scum than minimizing claims (though both would be nice)
    I'm not seeing it, and I'm a bit suspicious that this case didn't exist until 24 hours before deadline
    Same here, I don't think scum!KCC continues to push hard to lunch vanilla KK/push hard against wagoning me when a plausible case on me is presented.

    tl;dr: KCC played D1 mostly how I would expect a cop to with the possible exception of how long it took for her to say anything about Wisp's claim...which is sticking in my craw more than it probably should. I guess that piece is dependent on how savvy a player KCC is. I think she was pretty quick to wink at Vaimes in Modern shortly after she neighborized Vaimes and me, but that was a neighborizing ability. I still think KCC is more likely town than Wisp, but not quite as much as I expected to going into the iso.

    IF KCC is scum, I think it's >rand odds that Vaimes is her buddy. There was a LOT of interactions between the two that it wouldn't take much squinting to see coming from buddies talking in-thread.

    On the flip side, I still feel like it's pretty ballsy for scum!Wisp to claim a N0 peek coming out of Modern. Yes, there's the possibility of being coached by teammates/deciding to run counter to expectations, but...Wisp was pretty badly burned by locking in claim elements early. Like, quasi-game losing burned.

    So a big part of me wants to go with Vaimes's suggestion and leave them both alive until tomorrow. My reluctance there is that if we decide there can't be two town cop elements in the game (and a town vig!), then we have to correctly lunch between them in lylo.

    I need to think on this. We have ~5 days to hash things out, so let's keep talking. I'm still feeling like it's more likely that not BOTH the cops are town, especially with a vig, which is borderline info role, too.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from vezokpiraka »
    @cantrip: Who are you scumreading right now?

    I've read cantrip's big post and I'm struggling to see why would scum Cantrip walk back on his emiko read instead of going balls to the walls against it. I'm less convinced he is scum right now. Like I'd assume scum Cantrip would pivot onto someone else instead of spending words doing almost nothing. The defense against role fishing sounds a bit iffy still, but the rest of the post is just sincere. Being a leading lynch candidate for today and simply backpedalling on someone and not offering any alternatives just isn't something scum cantrip does. I mean except if he is playing 5D chess and actually expects this kind of response.
    I mean...right before I tripped myself on Emiko's case, I highlighted what I felt was a mindset slip from Wisp, so I sorta did have someone as an alt; I just didn't specify it in my last post.
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    What? *I* want you to go find it, because I most certainly did NOT.

    This:
    Quote from Cantripmancer »
    Quote from "Cantrip" »
    KCC mostly feels ok, but maybe a little more Business than last game.
    [Quote "KCC"]Probably, I know we won't really have claims and actions to work with later, so we need to squeeze everything we can from the thread
    Why won't we have claims and actions to work with later?
    Oh...no, I was more confused because we always have [whatever claims have been made] to work with, and we would presumably have actions, too...? I really (still) don't know why you would say that.
    Quote from Killjoy »
    But I don't you're ever a counterwagon to anyone from yesterday. I think you were more of a CFD, which behaves differently than a counterwagon. I think Rhand/Meg hit 4/4 yesterday, but I think Rhand pressure petered out around middle of the Day. KK then came up but Meg was still a thing. So Meg/KK could be counterwagons to each other as well. The wagon on you wasn't started in response to anything. Also counterwagons on town are usually started by scum, but yours was started by tom.
    I thought that Rhand had died down before Megiddo got to 4, but you're right.

    Maybe it's semantics, but I tend to see CFD's as: deadline is nearing, "majority of votes on PlayerA", something happens, "sudden migration to PlayerB", PlayerB gets lunched. As for D1, at the T-7 hour mark we were at:
    Quote from Bur »
    Vote Count 1.9
    KoolKoal (4): vezokpiraka, Rhand, KittyCupCake, Lastwhisper
    Megiddo (3): Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes
    Cantripmancer (3): tomsloger, Megiddo, EmikoYuriemoto
    tomsloger (1): Silvercrys3467

    Not Voting (1): KoolKoal
    Then KK voted himself, Megiddo moved from me to KK, then unvoted a few posts later. Silver voted me, but if KK hadn't self-voted, we'd probably have been at:

    KoolKoal (4): vezokpiraka, Rhand, KittyCupCake, Lastwhisper
    Cantripmancer (4): tomsloger, Megiddo, EmikoYuriemoto, Silvercrys3467
    Megiddo (3): Cantripmancer, Killjoy, Vaimes

    Not Voting (1): KoolKoal

    So yeah, I feel like I should probably be considered a counterwagon to KK. And yes, I'm aware that counterwagons on town are often (usually?) started by scum. Obviously town!Tom wasn't trying to push away from town!KK.
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Talk to me about who was scum on your wagon.
    Well, given the above, plus KCC's cop check, if scum was on me at that point it was Megiddo.
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    @Cantrip
    I would expect to die, but considering this whole thread spouted about my claim being unlikely, that could be a good explanation as of why I didnt
    wolves killed Tom who town read me, which likely points to Rhand
    So I know that applying my own mindset to others' choices sometimes gets me in trouble, but I can't help it: if I were town who had claimed a cop check and then survived a Night (that had a kill elsewhere), I'd pretty immediately think that either scum feared me being protected or they thought I was faking (which, as you say, the thread definitely reflected uncertainty). There's a little wiggle room for bewilderment, but why I didn't get NK'd would be really low on my list of questions.

    However, you posted:
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    @Vaimes
    @Emiko
    no

    @vezok
    idk about that, but you know who has slightly higher wolf!equity because of that shot? Rhand :p
    but thats just wine, isnt it?

    more wine, why wasnt I shot? What... what..? what.
    That end of post rhetorical feels like the kind of thing scum would say to try and flush out protective roles. You're not going on record as having globally role-fished (even declaiming it in advance as WIFOM), but you could use the responses and ways players respond to try and identify doctors/bodyguards. I don't see any reason for town!cop to invite public speculation on why they weren't killed.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ptap,

    bad work stuff. not in a good headspace for mafia rn.

    i'll be back tomorrow.
    Hope things get better soon.
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    And no, I don't want to clear a respected analyst. Make the scum choose between NKing confirmed townies and NKs on solving threats. Why give them two birds with one stone?
    I was thinking this, too. I like the choice.

    I'm not 100% certain that town can't have a N0 Peek Cop AND a 1-shot Alignment Cop, but it feels pretty unlikely, and at first blush I definitely think KCC's more likely town than Wisp. I want to review KCC's posts, though.

    On another note, I think it's highly likely that both Vezok and Emiko are town. Obviously one of them is, but...if Vezok and Wisp are buddies and Wisp says Vezok is town and Vez flips scum, then Wisp is immediately outted. Same with Emiko and KCC (maybe to a lesser degree because the unknown risk of a vig is already eliminated?). So Vez and Emiko are vaulted to the top of my town list.

    I think that puts me currently at:

    Emiko/Vez
    KCC
    Killjoy
    Vaimes
    Rhand/Megiddo
    Wisp

    I neglected to unvote Emiko last post, so

    Unvote

    Wisp already has plenty of votes, and I want to review KCC first, regardless.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Emiko, I feel like I owe you an apology (probably two, since this post is more words, sorry). I don't know how I forgot that you voted Wisp right after his claim. And it definitely was forgot (not "oops, didn't see that") because I read that post (at least twice), and I remember seeing the vote, but when I was writing up my post, I completely forgot that you had. And that pretty much torpedoes my case. To give you a short run-down of my process:

    • Early game you made that clarification post about "up to one" scum being in that grouping. Gut reaction was that it came from town, and then I saw Shadow saying the same thing and that was reinforced. I pretty much slated you as town and didn't really pay much attention to you after that until you unvoted KK after his claim.
    • You unvoting after his claim bugged me because he claimed vanilla, which shouldn't be enough to sway someone who thought he was scummy. So I asked, and you said you wanted to reread and you were trying to figure out if there were 3 people you found scummier than KK, and that you had at least 1 or 2. Which implied to me that you still found KK scummy, but you wanted to reassess. I still had you as a strong townlean.
    • Fast forward to yesterday. While catching up, I found that post by Wisp where he ponders why he wasn't NK'd. Huge red flag for me. I posted and voted, and one of the things I had noted from catching up was Rhand's assertion in 1111 that your voting behavior was questionable. You being a town lean for me, I wanted to take a look at that to see if Rhand was making a bad attack, so I iso'd you.
    • As I went through, I noted a lack of reason on your initial vote on KJ, and your reasoning for voting me was really sketchy, so I started buying into what Rhand was describing. And then it hit me that the reason I was townreading you was something that had been reinforced by Shadow-turned-Wisp, and I thought I had just caught Wisp.
    • So then I noted all the yelling about Wisp you were doing, and I was like, but she never votes him!!1!!one! Sweat So I seriously felt like there was a good chance that you were buddies with Wisp and I had town read you erroneously.

    But you did vote Wisp, and I completely misread/misremembered why you voted KK, and I'm super embarrassed because when I flip town it's going to be obvious that I made this super bad case in good faith. So not only am I faced with either getting lunched for this or losing all credibility even if I don't get lunched, but I can't even point back to it after the game as a failed scum gambit. In my (weak) defense, I've been stressed and haven't gotten much sleep in the last few days.

    FTR, scum!me is meticulous and never would have presented a case that hinged upon something so easily disproven, but you (especially, since this is your first experience with me) certainly can't trust that, and I don't expect you to.

    You also mentioned that you thought I went into that post wanting to say you were wolfy regardless of posts. I really didn't. When I quoted your 667 and wondered if that could come from scum, that was a real thought and something that I wanted to include because it really didn't fit with the rest of what I thought I was finding. Now that I've gotten my head on straight, it strengthens my town read. I think it's highly unlikely that scum, asked about three townies, says it's unlikely that any of them are scum.

    So you're back to being a strong townlean for me, which I'm sure will be interpreted as a walkback, but everything above is sincere. I'll do my best to redeem myself until I'm lunched or the game ends.

    I'm still not clear on why you were voting me before I made this attack; can you clarify that?

    Vaimes, you had a series of posts right after I stuck my foot in my mouth; if you have any additional questions after reading the above, let me know.

    Megiddo, same with your questions.

    Killjoy, I already mentioned that Megiddo being a counterwagon to KK and myself doesn't make me think Meg is scum as much as I would find someone town for being a counterwagon to scum. I think there's a slightly higher chance that he's scum for it, but I've liked some of his posts toDay. That said, I obviously need to get a better grip on this game, so I need to step back and reassess just about everyone.
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    But while I'm doing that, we can talk about Cantrip a bit

    Did you notice him role fishing me Day 1? If you didn't, I can go find it, but if you did, I actually think of that as more likely from townCantrip
    What? *I* want you to go find it, because I most certainly did NOT.

    Rhand, do you still feel like your thoughts in 1111 are accurate?

    Killjoy, did you ever look into what Rhand was asserting in 1111 as you said you wanted to?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from Vaimes »
    I specifically think she's not as likely to be scum with Last.
    Because? I see your later post where you talk about Vez not going after you and the KJ read, but why is Vez unlikely to be scum with Wisp?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    I wanted to look at the assertion that Emiko pushed the KK wagon then jumped off before it blew up, so I iso'd.

    First thing I noticed is that she never interacted with Shadow. She calls him villagery in 354, then next mention is 540 where she wants to lunch him (along with KJ, Rhand, and me). Next post she votes Killjoy. Not sure the lack of Shadow interaction is indicative, though, since she treated me the exact same way (even down to towning me in 354 and saying I'm in the lunch pool in 540).
    Quote from Killjoy »
    Emiko: Silver/tom/ a little bit Koolkoal. Do you think there's scum in that grouping?
    i think it is not likely .
    Does this come from scum D1?

    Wisp replaces in for Shadow and claimes the N0 check. 668 is Emiko's response, asking if the claim is common on Wisp's home site. Followed by 706 where she seems to imply that she thinks Wisp is wolf!faking the claim similar to Marl's recent claims on Colosseum and votes Wisp.

    758 is where Emiko first expresses concern about KK, only saying that she doesn't like Kool's 745, and then her next post, 813, she says "this has to be the best wagon right now" and votes Kool.

    Emiko, when you posted "coincidence?" in 814, were you saying that you thought that Rhand and KCC's votes on Kool coming so quickly after Vezok's was a coincidence, or were you implying that it was unlikely that that was a coincidence?

    She asks Kool for reads, then towns Meg, attacks Vez and Wisp, says Vez is slightly better than Wisp, but both stink, either smears or clarifies Wisp's general play, asks Wisp for reads, questions Wisp, continues to question Wisp, but specifies that her vote is still on Kool when Wisp says her lone vote on him is wolfy.

    After that, we get a series of posts by Wisp that Emiko doesn't like, but no indication as to why she doesn't like them, as well as the next post highlighting Wisp's reads and Emiko asking the thread why we're not lunching Wisp (but still no indication as to what is wrong with Wisp's reads), and finally 863, where she says that Wisp talks to other players like he knows they're town. This is literally the first reason she's given for suspecting Wisp other than in 826 where she says "last has not given much more to the thread than shadow did. the cop check is suspicious." But throughout all these posts where she repeatedly goes after Wisp, she's still voting Kool. 882 she naked unvotes Kool after Kool's claim, no indication as to why. When I ask her about it, she says we have time and she wants to read more. When I press, she says she reread Kool, would still be ok lunching him, but there are others she wants lunched more.

    A few more posts (including another one where Wisp is still most wolfy), and then she pivots onto me (as better than Kool or Megiddo), but only because I "use too many words to say very little".

    So she found Kool scummy (but without any reasoning) until he claimed, vocally attacked Wisp all Day but never once voted him, said she still found Kool scummy but pushed me at the last minute instead. This doesn't feel like a town progression. It feels like scum trying to get as many claims as possible, but without much commitment. And the continuous attacking of Wisp without a vote feels like not wanting to put any real pressure on a buddy.

    Emiko, why no Wisp vote until toDay?

    Vaimes, you think the above is agenda-less?

    Megiddo, to anticipate your queston: I don't know why. Shrugs

    I think Emiko's overall choices are more likely to come from scum than the possible role fishing I suspect of Wisp. Completely possible that the two of them are buddies, but if only one's scum, I'd think it more likely to be Emiko.

    Vote Emiko

    Wisp, I still want to know why you oh-so-innocently openly wondered why you weren't NK'd.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    idk about that, but you know who has slightly higher wolf!equity because of that shot? Rhand :p
    Why?

    Rhand, why aren't you touching Megiddo with a 10-foot pole?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    @ cantrip:
    let me get this straight

    i’m scum because i was the counterwagon to (town) KK and (from your perspective, town) cantrip?

    that’s not really how counterwagons work. are you sure kk wasn’t the cantrip counterwagon?
    I know. Counterwagons tend to be more indicative when you have counterwagons to flipped scum. That's why I said it's possible we had three town wagons going on.
    Quote from Vaimes »
    EoD wagon movement just felt very scum-influenced, and I suspect they were pulling away from Rhand. Town!Rhand gets pushed on early, especially when he's busy, and I think if he were actually town he would have ended up being the D1 lunch.
    I'd have to go back and confirm, but I feel like Rhand's wagon had practically disbanded long before the time KK/Meg/Me arose. I can see where you're coming from here, but I don't know that I agree that EoD wagon movement specifically points to scum!Rhand.
    Quote from Vaimes »
    And then why I want Last to claim, or at least confirm his original vezok check. Personally, I think Last is incredibly scummy by behavior. He's super moody, not really solving, prone to being deliberately unhelpful, traits that are very familiar from his play in Modern. He isn't acting like a villager who knows another villager's alignment, he isn't using that information in any meangingful way, he doesn't even seem to want anyone to pay attention to him. Town!Last doesn't need to wait for an invitation to push the game forward. Which is why I want him to be explicitly clear about his vezok check and that it isn't a gambit. If he's telling the truth, sweet, I'm just misreading him and we can move on. And if not, he needs to die, and this whole post/case needs some serious reworking, aside from maybe the Rhand bits since that's sort of in its own independent bubble.
    I feel like this is pretty good analysis, but more importantly, it feels like sincere analysis, not calculating analysis.
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Seeing as how I seriously shot town in the foot by killing KCC last game, I don't really want to jump the gun in scumreading her. But if I'm right about Emiko and KJ being town, then that only leaves four people, three of which are scum.
    Wait...which four?
    Quote from Vaimes »
    I think vezok's okay regardless of Last's alignment.
    This is an odd little coda at the end of a huge wall. Why is Vez ok regardless of Wisp's alignment? What do you think of Vez independent of Wisp's maybe-claim?
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    more wine, why wasnt I shot? What... what..? what.
    Wisp, why would town!you ever post this question?

    Vote Lastwhisper
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    I'm here, and my wife is doing a lot better. Home and recuperating. I'll have a little time tomorrow, then hopefully things more or less go back to normal-ish.

    I need to review my Megiddo thoughts. Baseline I feel like he is more likely to be scum because he was a counterwagon to me and Kool, but I guess it's possible that we had three town wagons there. I liked some of the responses he was giving me, though, so... eh.

    Sorry, I didn't read any overNight for obvious reasons, so I don't have questions or any insight as of right now. I'll play as time permits, though.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    At the ER because my wife's appendix just ruptured.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Eurovision Mafia - Day 2 - Блин! No more vodka!
    Quote from tomsloger »
    Oh wait i understand now. Confusing sentence.
    I'd feel less like one of the two perspectives would be more likely.

    Ok i currently think youre scum which would make silver likely town

    vote cantrip
    You're...trying to start a counterwagon on me? Hmm. Let's see. My PBPA/iso attempts rarely gain traction/end up swaying people, so you're probably not trying to distract from my Megs scrutiny, and scum!you wouldn't care if I was off tilting at windmills over town!KK. So either you're buddies with KK and just want to try to see if a wagon on me gains any traction, or you're town and have lost your ability to read me. Excellent. I shall look at your interactions with KK while I'm reviewing to see how likely it is that the two of you are aligned.

    In the meantime, I'd love to hear why you think I'm scum.
    Posted in: Mafia
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