I could've killed you, but I needed you to continue making Rebels for me to eat, at least until I got (ideally repeatably) cleared.
Yeah, the analysis needed to come sooner. But I really don't see my activity levels increasing much over what they have been, ever. Thus my musing at the end about continuing to play if that's where we are in MTG:S meta.
Yeah, I'm fine conceding. I considered it almost immediately in Day 2 (having no interaction with the town would make the eventual massclaim incredibly difficult to beat), but I thought it'd be a bit disrespectful to Wuffles. I spent some time on and off this weekend trying to think through what series of events would have to happen for me to win:
Mislynch pool: Az, Axel, Vez (this lynch has to be pushed by other people)
Clear pool: Iso, KA, Highroller, Terry
NK order: Iso (Godfather trigger, presumably copped this round, doc on KA), Terry
I basically have to try and follow KA around at Night to maintain GF status while also hoping to dodge Rez, leaving him alive in F3 to ask the question "why are you still alive, Doc?" Not to mention needing to put in a Herculean amount of effort to get two of the strongest players in the history of the site mislynched.
I've also gotta hope that Highroller finds himself patient enough to not shoot me immediately (I need three corpses to become BP, but intended to claim two) and that Az's motivation, Axel's quest, or any other unclaimed information screwing with me, and that the trichotomy of Vez/Rez/myself all interacting with the graveyard doesn't see any more of the light of day than it already has. All in all, an incredibly unlikely set of circumstances.
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Behaviorally, I'm really not sure why I garnered so much scrutiny by comparison to, say, Az or Axel. People kept saying it, but not substantiating why besides Az. Not posting analysis early is not outside of either alignment's meta, nor is this posting frequency, nor is hesitancy at the D1 lynch deadline. I think I was contributing significantly in the early game. But I definitely should've been posting more analysis, and maybe should've taken more concrete stances than I normally have been (beyond my woefully wrong "cases" in my last couple of town games, but again, fits my town meta).
Maybe continuing to play with this activity level isn't the best idea? It's not going to change with any likelihood (both from my level of desire to cheat on work, and the workload itself), and if it's going to immediately lump me into the lurker group, any time I roll scum would probably be disadvantageous to my teammates.
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Game was fun! I enjoyed getting to play with everyone in this game (refreshing!) and I think the roles are pretty interesting, if as claimed. Bur did feel pretty gimped.
No, my colors/types were not initially in my role PM. I asked pretty shortly afterwards, and I was told I am both green and black. Asked for confirmation the day of my claiming, no response yet.
Let the record show I assumed a role like Vezok's existed, thus my choosing to eat a goblin over a player, but I acknowledge it matters less with d1 scum lynch.
@highroller Thanks. All I've ever heard/read it referred to as was basically "the simplest explanation is normally right," and this is the first I've heard about things being unfalsifiable.
I'll wait to hear if anyone else thinks I should claim my # of corpses eaten. You didn't update that the type of corpse I eat doesn't matter.
Also, normally, motivation gives the player an extra ability use that they would normally have access to. So, if you only had a one-shot ability and it was motivated, a lot of the time that wouldn't work. Up to mod preference at that point.
I figured if I actually say the number of corpses (alignment/traits are unimportant & nonspecific), my role becomes actually useless. If it's really that important, I can claim it, but I don't think that it is for your purposes of deciding to lynch me or not.
I question the black, as I was told that prior to claiming, but I know that GGT is only green. I've asked Wuffles to confirm.
What else do you want, rez?
@Highroller feel free to either refute my points, explain how Occam's actually works, or don't ad hom/insult me. Thanks.
Neither of us know the "fact" of the matter. Very little in this game can actually be fact, but if it turns out Terry is town, him being cleared by his actions will have been fact. I'd hope you can understand that I'm not attempting to argue fact, but likelihood.
We have two competing theories, thus my referencing Occam's.
For your circumstance to be true:
Terry has to be mafia
scum!Terry has an extra kill
scum team (daychat) have to have a similar perspective as you on mafia theory (which, given the demonstrated behavior of the game so far, seems unlikely, thus my posit that it's a reasonable plurality that is being stacked)
scum team had to not have additional information making them value other individuals higher than the potential towncred from killing Bur
scum!Terry had to have been willing to bus GF as opposed to being willing to NL (a viable option for scum in that situation, if activity from the previous deadline is a reference point)
For mine:
Terry is town
Terry is not lying (presumably, this would've been CC'd by now if so)
Terry is playing to his win condition
Terry's shot was not manipulated (presumably, this would've been claimed if so, since a noteworthy amount of the town is clearing Terry.)
Thus my thinking my (and, additionally, the plurality of townsfolk at this point)theory best adheres to Occam's.
There's a lot hedging/qualifications for this massclaim. In everyone's next post, can they clearly state if they are willing to fullclaim?
Not a land. Willing to fullclaim. It will basically blank my role, but given that I'm on the scummier end of the totem pole (still haven't heard a compelling reason why this is the case), I don't believe I have much leeway to complain.
@Highroller: I think you're just willingly being obtuse. That's not what Occam's says, and you likely know better. You're explaining reasons why Terry can not be cleared, which I don't think anyone disagrees can be true. Bonus nightkills and killing one's own partner are viable lines of play.
But most likely to be true? No. Most logical course of play? Probably not (make them burn the lynch on obvscum instead of having a shot at mafioso #3), so your point about that being the best line for Terry regardless of alignment is, at BEST, arguable.
@Iso: Role madness. Probably safe to say the scum have a third role. Why are you specifically curious about the Vezok interactions? You said earlier you believe Vezok is town.
@Az: I don't believe you've ever properly acknowledged/responded to my 540.
@KA: Did nothing in their later interactions tip this off to you? I don't think that Vezok is scum by any means, but those early posts don't really do much for me. I agree with you that they read naturally, but I think that can come from a scum perspective given the context (very matter-of-fact dialogue of meta & intention, leaning towards theory more than anything else, which doesn't really do anything AI IMO).
@Vez So... theorycrafting about an unknown, but probably town role makes someone more likely to be town, without providing any behavioral evidence to back up one's claims?
@Rez: Re: your 691, I agree that it seems unlikely to group both buddies in that same posting, especially given how obvious Bur was to be a lynch candidate the following day.
Put aside your vote analysis on Vezok for a while. Where do you think the mindset from his posting was generally coming from? For example, I think 453 represents the often bullish town!Vezok we see, and given the traction Terry was having, I think unvoting him in 509 is not a play he would make as scum.
I'll massclaim at this point, absolutely. There's no way 1 mafioso can take anywhere near the advantage of it that 8 townsfolk can. I'll even go first if so desired.
My read on Vez is that he's kinda just coasting effort-wise since he's being universally townread. Could be improved, but I'm not lynching him anytime soon.
[WIFOM]@Iso
I shouldn't be lynched because I, outside of V/LA periods, have been productive and as active as I normally am as either alignment. Beyond that, I haven't heard a real case presented against me besides the age-old "mafia are more likely to be in lurkers," which I agree with. But it needs to be contextual. Since returning, for better or for worse, this is my baseline activity level.
I don't think my interactions with either of Grapefruit/Bur are particularly AI, and I'd say my interactions/read with/by Cantrip would be points in my favor. Beyond that, I don't have a great reason to be kept alive. My role is confirmable with help, but not overly powerful, and I certainly wouldn't be more helpful than some of the other present players in creating cases. As time moves on, I'd think I can help with behavioral analysis fairly well.[/WIFOM]
@Highroller I think your argument against Terry fails Occam's Razor. Make the town expend the lynch, kill a potential investigative role.
@Vez What makes you think theorycrafting is AI, and in a good way re: Axel? Why do you think I'm the most likely mafia?
Yeah, the analysis needed to come sooner. But I really don't see my activity levels increasing much over what they have been, ever. Thus my musing at the end about continuing to play if that's where we are in MTG:S meta.
Mislynch pool: Az, Axel, Vez (this lynch has to be pushed by other people)
Clear pool: Iso, KA, Highroller, Terry
NK order: Iso (Godfather trigger, presumably copped this round, doc on KA), Terry
I basically have to try and follow KA around at Night to maintain GF status while also hoping to dodge Rez, leaving him alive in F3 to ask the question "why are you still alive, Doc?" Not to mention needing to put in a Herculean amount of effort to get two of the strongest players in the history of the site mislynched.
I've also gotta hope that Highroller finds himself patient enough to not shoot me immediately (I need three corpses to become BP, but intended to claim two) and that Az's motivation, Axel's quest, or any other unclaimed information screwing with me, and that the trichotomy of Vez/Rez/myself all interacting with the graveyard doesn't see any more of the light of day than it already has. All in all, an incredibly unlikely set of circumstances.
---
Behaviorally, I'm really not sure why I garnered so much scrutiny by comparison to, say, Az or Axel. People kept saying it, but not substantiating why besides Az. Not posting analysis early is not outside of either alignment's meta, nor is this posting frequency, nor is hesitancy at the D1 lynch deadline. I think I was contributing significantly in the early game. But I definitely should've been posting more analysis, and maybe should've taken more concrete stances than I normally have been (beyond my woefully wrong "cases" in my last couple of town games, but again, fits my town meta).
Maybe continuing to play with this activity level isn't the best idea? It's not going to change with any likelihood (both from my level of desire to cheat on work, and the workload itself), and if it's going to immediately lump me into the lurker group, any time I roll scum would probably be disadvantageous to my teammates.
---
Game was fun! I enjoyed getting to play with everyone in this game (refreshing!) and I think the roles are pretty interesting, if as claimed. Bur did feel pretty gimped.
Vote: ganderin_dan
@highroller Thanks. All I've ever heard/read it referred to as was basically "the simplest explanation is normally right," and this is the first I've heard about things being unfalsifiable.
I'll wait to hear if anyone else thinks I should claim my # of corpses eaten. You didn't update that the type of corpse I eat doesn't matter.
Also, normally, motivation gives the player an extra ability use that they would normally have access to. So, if you only had a one-shot ability and it was motivated, a lot of the time that wouldn't work. Up to mod preference at that point.
I question the black, as I was told that prior to claiming, but I know that GGT is only green. I've asked Wuffles to confirm.
What else do you want, rez?
@Highroller feel free to either refute my points, explain how Occam's actually works, or don't ad hom/insult me. Thanks.
I'm Golgari Grave-Troll, town BP. Green (and black?!) Creature - Skeleton Troll.
At night, I target and devour a corpse. For each [redacted] corpse(s) I eat, I become one-shot BP.
Neither of us know the "fact" of the matter. Very little in this game can actually be fact, but if it turns out Terry is town, him being cleared by his actions will have been fact. I'd hope you can understand that I'm not attempting to argue fact, but likelihood.
We have two competing theories, thus my referencing Occam's.
For your circumstance to be true:
- Terry has to be mafia
- scum!Terry has an extra kill
- scum team (daychat) have to have a similar perspective as you on mafia theory (which, given the demonstrated behavior of the game so far, seems unlikely, thus my posit that it's a reasonable plurality that is being stacked)
- scum team had to not have additional information making them value other individuals higher than the potential towncred from killing Bur
- scum!Terry had to have been willing to bus GF as opposed to being willing to NL (a viable option for scum in that situation, if activity from the previous deadline is a reference point)
For mine:- Terry is town
- Terry is not lying (presumably, this would've been CC'd by now if so)
- Terry is playing to his win condition
- Terry's shot was not manipulated (presumably, this would've been claimed if so, since a noteworthy amount of the town is clearing Terry.)
Thus my thinking my (and, additionally, the plurality of townsfolk at this point)theory best adheres to Occam's.@KA: Did nothing in GF/Vezok's earlier interactions...*
@Vez: re - Axel
@Rez: it seems unlikely that GF would group both buddies...*
Not a land. Willing to fullclaim. It will basically blank my role, but given that I'm on the scummier end of the totem pole (still haven't heard a compelling reason why this is the case), I don't believe I have much leeway to complain.
@Highroller: I think you're just willingly being obtuse. That's not what Occam's says, and you likely know better. You're explaining reasons why Terry can not be cleared, which I don't think anyone disagrees can be true. Bonus nightkills and killing one's own partner are viable lines of play.
But most likely to be true? No. Most logical course of play? Probably not (make them burn the lynch on obvscum instead of having a shot at mafioso #3), so your point about that being the best line for Terry regardless of alignment is, at BEST, arguable.
@Iso: Role madness. Probably safe to say the scum have a third role. Why are you specifically curious about the Vezok interactions? You said earlier you believe Vezok is town.
@Az: I don't believe you've ever properly acknowledged/responded to my 540.
@KA: Did nothing in their later interactions tip this off to you? I don't think that Vezok is scum by any means, but those early posts don't really do much for me. I agree with you that they read naturally, but I think that can come from a scum perspective given the context (very matter-of-fact dialogue of meta & intention, leaning towards theory more than anything else, which doesn't really do anything AI IMO).
@Vez So... theorycrafting about an unknown, but probably town role makes someone more likely to be town, without providing any behavioral evidence to back up one's claims?
@Rez: Re: your 691, I agree that it seems unlikely to group both buddies in that same posting, especially given how obvious Bur was to be a lynch candidate the following day.
Put aside your vote analysis on Vezok for a while. Where do you think the mindset from his posting was generally coming from? For example, I think 453 represents the often bullish town!Vezok we see, and given the traction Terry was having, I think unvoting him in 509 is not a play he would make as scum.
My read on Vez is that he's kinda just coasting effort-wise since he's being universally townread. Could be improved, but I'm not lynching him anytime soon.
[WIFOM]@Iso
I shouldn't be lynched because I, outside of V/LA periods, have been productive and as active as I normally am as either alignment. Beyond that, I haven't heard a real case presented against me besides the age-old "mafia are more likely to be in lurkers," which I agree with. But it needs to be contextual. Since returning, for better or for worse, this is my baseline activity level.
I don't think my interactions with either of Grapefruit/Bur are particularly AI, and I'd say my interactions/read with/by Cantrip would be points in my favor. Beyond that, I don't have a great reason to be kept alive. My role is confirmable with help, but not overly powerful, and I certainly wouldn't be more helpful than some of the other present players in creating cases. As time moves on, I'd think I can help with behavioral analysis fairly well.[/WIFOM]
@Highroller I think your argument against Terry fails Occam's Razor. Make the town expend the lynch, kill a potential investigative role.
@Vez What makes you think theorycrafting is AI, and in a good way re: Axel? Why do you think I'm the most likely mafia?