Quote from moctzal »Interesting data points from GP Toronto: https://www.channelfireball.com/articles/modern-allegiances-fire-and-phoenix/
Excerpt from the article:
"A Skewed Stage
Ravnica Allegiance brought Burn two potential improvements: Skewer the Critics and Light Up the Stage. Let’s try to figure out whether these cards actually constitute an improvement or not, and if so, how big of an improvement.
Skewer the CriticsLight Up the Stage
The problem is that we don’t have a proper control group for one of the two cards. Virtually none of Toronto’s Burn players failed to update their decks with Skewer the Critics. A grand total of five players ran none, and all of them failed to get to Sunday. That may make Burn decks with Skewer better, but it could just as well mean that players who don’t keep up with trends are generally more prone to losing.
Across the GPs in Port- and Oakland, 17.9% of the then still Skewerless Burn players qualified for the second day. 20% is an improvement but falls within the range of natural fluctuation. I’m inclined to take the almost universal adoption of Skewer as evidence of the card’s merits. Though that is all we have to go by, really. The data tells us no more than that it wasn’t any kind of game changer.
Light Up the Stage is a more interesting case, if only because we find the perfect control group within our sample. Among the Burn players whose lists are available to me, 45 ran Light Up the Stage and 45 didn’t. This success story is one the card itself couldn’t live up to, unfortunately. Only six players who lit up the stage made it to the second stage of the tournament, whereas 12 of those without Light did.
Once there, light Burn players again fared way worse than heavy Burn players. None of the versions with Light Up the Stage placed anyone within the Top 100, whereas five of the versions without it did. For reference, here are the lists of the highest finisher with a full playset and of the highest finisher with zero copies:"
While not statistically significant, 45 decks with and 45 decks without Light Up the Stage is a convenient comparison, if nothing else.
As the saying goes, "the proof is in the pudding." LUtS didn't do as well as when it wasn't ran. Draw isn't what we want unless there's dmg attached to it. It's been proven over and over again through the yrs that unless it's a crazy draw spell, like T. Cruise, or it deals dmg and draws us a card(s) then it really should be in our lists. I really wish we'd stop jumping on red draw until it does dmg and draws. Til then, we don't want it tbh imo. Even Tobi said that LUtS burn win % is less is a fact from statistics. That's from 2 GPS. I'm good. No LUtS for me.