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Magic Market Index: Hit Over Miss
  • posted a message on 2CH LR Only Black / Library of Leng; ManyCookies and Mogg win! (356 points)
    I really need to start allocating more time to actually testing my ideas against other reasonable decks.

    7) Personman
    Anguished Unmaking / Dark Salvation
    1) CalvinSchwa
    Bitterblossom / Doomfall

    On your play, Bitterblossom beats Salvation:

    2: Blossom
    3: 19, 1 1/1, Doomfall Unmaking
    4: 18, 2 1/1s, I go to 19
    5: 17, 3 1/1s, I go to 17
    6: 16, 4 1/1s, I go to 14
    7: 15, 5 1/1s, I go to 10
    7: Kill a 1/1 and make 3 2/2s
    8: 14, 5 1/1s, I go to 6
    8: attack for 6, you go to 8
    9: 7, 6 1/1s, I go to 1
    9: Attack for 6, you go to 1
    10: Bitterblossom kills you

    if you block:
    7: Kill a 1/1 and make 3 2/2s
    8: 14, 5 1/1s, leave 4 up to block, I go to 9
    8: Attack for 6, two get traded away, you go to 12
    9: 11, 2 1/1s, leave them up
    9: Attack, trade
    10: 10, 1 1/1, you're up on life and obviously win.

    if I wait til turn 9:
    7: 15, 5 1/1s, I go to 10
    8: 14, 6 1/1s, I go to 5
    9: I lose

    On my play you have to wait til turn 4 to play Blossom, though, and it makes the difference:

    4: Blossom
    5:
    5: 19, 1 1/1
    6:
    6: 18, 2 1/1s, I go to 19
    7: Kill a 1/1 and make 3 2/2s
    7: 17, 2 1/1s, I go to 18
    8: Attack you to 11. Ok, I'm clearly going to win if you don't block. Let's back up:
    -
    7: 17, 2 1/1s, don't attack
    8: Attack with 3, you double block one and go to 13.
    8: 12, 1 1/1
    9: Attack with 2, you go to 8
    9: 7, 2 1/1s. Ok I think I got this.

    so instead you Doomfall Salvation for the draw.

    1-4

    2) Feyd_Ruin :: Scoundrels
    Shrieking Affliction / Wanted Scoundrels

    On my play, I can win from 1 life by Unmaking Affliction and Salvationing Scoundrels on turn 7. On your play that doesn't work, so I have to try Unmaking Scoundrels and racing Affliction:

    1: Affliction
    2: Scoundrels
    3: Attack, I'm at 16
    3: Unmaking Scoundrels, I'm at 13.
    4: Affliction puts me to 10, ok, there's no chance I'm racing.

    3-3

    3) Magus of the Aesthetic :: Why do we keep coming back to this library?
    Black Sun's Zenith / Geralf's Messenger

    2-2, agree

    4) Mogg
    Sorin Markov / Sorin's Vengeance

    This is actually sick, except that Vessel exists. I can't interact with any of it, and I definitely can't win by turn 7.

    0-6.

    5) ManyCookies :: Nix and Chips
    Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath / Vessel of Malignity

    Yeah so funny story, I was in the process of submitting Vessel, and then at the last second I somehow confused myself and forgot that the whole point was that it's exile, and thought it didn't work? Anyway I'm shocked there's only one.

    0-6

    6) MyNameIsFourteen
    Black Sun's Zenith / Geralf's Messenger

    2-2 as above.

    8) Superbajt
    Anguished Unmaking / Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath

    Your play:
    5: Ob, make 5/5, I Unmake it (17)
    5: Make 2 2/2s
    6: +2 Ob, Unmake 1 2/2: 16, 18, 3
    6: Attack Ob, you can never make a 5/5 but you slowly drain me. And I can't wait for 7 because you'll have another 5/5 by then.

    My play:
    5: Make 2 2/2s, you unmake one.
    5: You can't -2 Ob, because I'll kill it and unmake the 5/5 and win, so you +1 Ob, but then I unmake it an win.

    3-3

    9) Tatterhood :: 2Threats.dec
    Dread Wanderer / Stillmoon Cavalier

    Stillmoon 6-0s me by itself, which probably means my deck is trash. It kills on turn 8, and could happily block as many 2/2s as it wanted if I were somehow a threat to race, which I'm not.

    0-6

    10) WhammeWhamme
    Bitterblossom / Shrieking Affliction

    As noted above, I lose to t2 blossom, so I have to Unmake it, and while I could eventually outpace Affliction, a 6- or 9-damage head start is more than enough to kill me.

    06
    7 | 1 3 2 0 0 2 X 3 0 | 9
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 2CH LR Only Black / Library of Leng; ManyCookies and Mogg win! (356 points)
    I'm thinking of it a little late, but it's probably worth mentioning for any newcomers this week that this is a reprise of a round from a few weeks ago, but with one fewer card.
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Conjurer's Closet ; Magus of the Aesthetic wins! (550 points)
    So I was surprised not to see my hand here, since I submitted well before the deadline. I didn't have a reply saying my hand was illegal or anything.. and then I noticed that somehow, MTGS had allowed me to PM my hand to myself. I swear it was submitted on time. It was
    .

    vs.

    1) CalvinSchwa :: Gollum and the Ring
    Daze / Goblin Settler / Sol Ring

    Can't pay for Daze, 0-6.

    2) Convoy_Avenger
    Flickerwisp / Parallax Tide / Parallax Wave

    Drain Flickerwisp, can't win through Wave/Tide. 2-2

    3) Magus of the Aesthetic
    Ashen Rider / Lion's Eye Diamond / Unburial Rites

    This is sweet. 0-6

    4) ManyCookies
    Catch // Release / Kolaghan's Command / Nantuko Tracer

    I lose Drain to Command, but can then make Marit on ManyCookies's t4/5 end step, to dodge Catch. 6-0.

    5) superbajt
    Angrath, the Flame-Chained / Oath of Gideon / Sol Ring

    Counter Angrath, win. 6-0.

    6) Tatterhood
    Echoing Truth / Eternal Witness / Time Walk

    On my play, I can counter Witness, but that leaves no defense against Truth so I can't win. On the draw I don't get to take many turns. 1-4

    7) tomsloger
    Akroma, Angel of Fury / Mana Drain / Mana Drain

    My uncounterable threat is bigger and faster. 6-0.

    8) WhammeWhamme
    Arcane Denial / Legion's Landing / Venser, Shaper Savant

    Venser beats Marit, and waiting for Drain backup just lets WhammeWhamme have Denial. 0-6
    9 | 0 2 0 6 6 1 6 0 X | 21
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 5CH Overabundance; WhammeWhamme wins! (500 points)
    Hey sorry I disappeared, I did my results, and also my results as if I'd submitted Death's Shadow instead of Stalker, but then realized I'd made a big error in all of them and didn't have the time/willpower to redo them.

    Suffice it to say I really should've submitted Death's Shadow. There were 0 targeted removal spells this week...
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 5CH Overabundance; WhammeWhamme wins! (500 points)
    Vault enters tapped
    I even went and read the oracle text carefully to make sure I wasn't being an idiot. And somehow just.. ignored the first line. The multiplicity of ridiculous ways I can be wrong about things will never cease to amaze me!

    preference for either of 2CH LR or 3CH LR
    I think 3 is probably the right default, but I'd definitely like to see some 2s now and again. 3 allows for more differentiation on the individual level, but it also makes it easier to include catch-all answers alongside a powerful strategy, potentially reducing overall strategic diversity. For instance, last week we saw two Food Chain combo + Answer decks. In 2CH, you have to commit more strongly to a strategy, and that means that some interesting ideas that would be invalidated by the likely presence of cards like Unmaking have room to breathe.

    Of course, this also means that 2CH is much more dependent on your meta-read, while 3CH rewards your ability to squeeze value out of the format.

    I guess this actually leads me to an interesting idea – I'd been thinking for a while that it would be nice to repeat a format occasionally, to allow for meta development. But what if instead we tried two consecutive weeks in which we first do a format as 3CH, and then once people have seen what's out there, we run it again as 2CH?
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 5CH Overabundance; WhammeWhamme wins! (500 points)
    Isn't Vault/Key too fast in land rule, under 3.1.ii? T1 Key, T2 Vault + activate, T2b activate key and vault, etc?

    imo Depths is definitely polarizing enough to be in the banning discussion, but I don't have strong feelings either way yet. I think it's ok for there to be a straightforward "i bet everyone forgot about this" button in the meta, and as far as those go, Depths is quite benign – Path and Judgment are good cards anyway, and being pushed to include one isn't a terrible cost.

    I do agree with MyNameIsFourteen's comment regarding it being kind of restrictive on round design that there's a strong all-land deck. I think it's probably ok to deal with this by adding more riders to those rounds, or just one-time banning Depths during them.
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Squandered Goblin Curtains; Anachronity wins! (425 points)
    Quote from Curvograph »
    -> OTD: 1st turn: basic, Mana Crypt and LE (basic gets sacrificed for mana). This way you are limited to at most one land. 2nd turn: basic land and pass, 3rd turn: second basic land and Braids, one land and Crypt get sacrificed. This way you are unable to remove Braids, as you cannot sacrifice two permanents to kill her without losing Leyline.
    1. Braids stays: she races and has fuel. You lose a permanent each turn due to LE.
    2. Braids dies from sacrifice of Leyline and a land: you are left without lands and leyline. LE locks.
    3. You play Bridge on your first turn (afterwards it is impossible): LE locks.
    Banefire is effectively useless as it requires mana you don't have (or get it from sacrifice of Leyline which does not help) 3
    Ah, yep, it was late and I just didn't fully consider the difference when you have LE first. Updated, and welcome to PHM!
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Squandered Goblin Curtains; Anachronity wins! (425 points)
    Took me a second to figure out what the Eternal Scourges were doing, I had completely forgotten the exile clause. Neat!


    7) Personman
    Banefire / Ensnaring Bridge / Leyline of Sanctity

    1) Anachronity
    Leyline of Sanctity / Predator Ooze / Swan Song

    Sanctity + Swan Song beats Sanctity + Bridge. Then it's a race. It goes:

    My play:
    1: Sac Sanctity + Land for Bridge, response Sanctity + Song.
    1: Forest
    2: Land, attack for 2 (18)
    2: Land, sac one for Ooze
    3: 2L, 16
    3: attack for 2 (18)
    4: 3L, 14
    4: atk 3, 15
    5: 4L, 12
    5: atk 4, 11
    6: 5L, 10
    6: atk 5, 6
    7: Banefire lethal

    so instead, Anachronity sits back and does nothing, Bridge keeps me alive and Leyline keeps em alive, we draw.

    My draw:
    1: Leyline, Land
    1: Leyline, Land, Bridge, tap land to counter. Now I don't have Banefire, and lose the race.

    1-4


    Song can't counter artifacts. 2-2.

    2) Curvograph :: Stagnation
    Braids, Cabal Minion / Land Equilibrium / Mana Crypt

    On the draw, if I start with Leyline, I'm forced to give it up to shoot Braids in response to the trigger, then sac a land to finish her. Land Equilibrium comes down t2, and locks me out. If I hold Leyline, t1 Land Eq just wins.

    On the play, if I play a land and pass, I can wait for Braids, then double shoot her without losing Leyline. Then I actually win, since Curvograph has no way to get rid of lands for Land Eq except shooting emself in the face. If Land Eq comes down first, there's still no way to sac lands Curvograph can sac a few lands at eir own face, and then I can't double-shoot Braids without losing Leyline.

    0-6

    3) Feyd_Ruin: In the Revenge Business
    Gaea's Revenge / Mana Crypt / Mana Crypt

    Bridge just wins. 6-0.

    4) Magus of the Aesthetic :: I Wrote 2,700 Words This Week, So Here Are Three Cards From The FAQ
    Azusa, Lost but Seeking / Dark Ritual / Voidstone Gargoyle

    t1 Voidstone on Bridge is pretty good, except that I just play lands and shoot both creatures until they are dead, and then win. Though, I guess it's a bit of a race, since I'm giving up so many lands. It would be a close race if I didn't have Leyline.

    6-0

    5) ManyCookies :: Omnomnom
    Anguished Unmaking / Eternal Scourge / Food Chain

    Agree, 0-6.

    6) MyNameIsFourteen :: LazyDeckbuilding
    Dark Depths / Sol Ring / Thespian's Stage

    Bridge just wins. 6-0.

    8) Superbajt
    Eternal Scourge / Food Chain / Nature's Claim

    Claim is just as good as Unmaking here, 0-6.

    9) WhammeWhamme
    Commandeer / Land Equilibrium / Mana Drain

    Well, it's definitely not possible for me to lose! Sadly, it is equally impossible for me to win.

    2-2.
    7 | 2 0 6 6 0 6 X 0 2| 22
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on Perfect Hand Draft: Round 3 : 90 Card Sealed : HANDS POSTED
    Oh, yep, I indeed lose the Gideon matchups.
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on Perfect Hand Draft: Round 3 : 90 Card Sealed : HANDS POSTED
    Quote from MyNameIsFourteen »
    3-3, unless I messed up the lake of the dead math.

    I think you did. I can cast it the first time on t3 and the second time on t5:

    1. Swamp
    2. Plains
    3. Swamp, tap all for BBW, Lake sacrificing one, activate lake sacrificing the other for BBBBBBW, cast Approach
    4. Swamp (BBBBBW possible)
    5. Swamp, now I have 2 Swamps, a Plains, and Lake as on turn 3 and can cast it again.
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on Perfect Hand Draft: Round 3 : 90 Card Sealed : HANDS POSTED
    There are a bunch of typos in the posted hand - Dreamstealer, Piracy Charm, Gideon of the Trials. Not a huge deal but makes it a little annoying to check card texts. It would also be super helpful if you edited the grid into the OP, so it's right next to the hands.

    Anyway, I definitely overestimated the value of Lake. I think I didn't quite think through that I can't even win before turn 5 without disruption, and there's plenty of disruption.

    That said, I think I do a little better than listed.

    vs. 5 Arboria / Gideon of the Trails / Helix Pinnacle, turn 2 Battlemage means it's going to be just Gideon no matter what – if Pinnacle is played, Gideon and Arboria are discarded, and I race Pinnacle easily. And if Gideon tries to win, I just kill it. So instead Gideon +1s forever and we draw.

    vs. 7 Azorius Chancery / Gideon of the Trials / Raven's Crime it's similar on my play. Either I discard Approach to t1 Crime, get the other two, and win, or Crime and Chancery are discarded and it's a draw as above. On the draw, I have to discard Lake, but just playing a Gray Ogre turn 3 is still enough to draw, since Chancery doesn't do anything.
    Gideon +1 beats a 2/2.

    vs 9 Evasive Action / Force of Will / Helix Pinnacle, I'm not sure how I can lose. I can force kicked Battlemage through Evasive Action on turn 2 on the play and turn 6 on the draw. The only thing that can stop Approach is Force, and if Battlemage resolves it takes out Force, and if it gets Forced it also takes out Force.

    So I think my row is

    02 | 3 X 0 6 0 0 0 0 6 | 14
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Squandered Goblin Curtains; Anachronity wins! (425 points)
    Wait, what? Why wouldn't Arterial Flow be legal?
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Only Black / Library of Leng; Superbajt wins! (450 points)
    I originally submitted Soul Manipulation, figuring there would be lots of creature threats, and that the flexibility might get me somewhere. But I'm very glad I swapped, Charm is better against BSZ anyway, which is just about the only thing that can kill Silumgar.

    I'm amazed that Silumgar's trigger was relevant so often. I thought I might get someone, but there was nothing about this format that screamed tokens to me.

    I'm also amazed that Braids hasn't shown up more in other random 3CH rounds. In 2CB long ago it was one of the big reasons for banning Lotus (since Ritual isn't enough) but in 3CH it just blanks so many decks.
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Only Black / Library of Leng; Superbajt wins! (450 points)
    7) Personman
    Dromar's Charm / Fevered Convulsions / Silumgar, the Drifting Death

    vs.

    1) Anachronity
    Call the Bloodline / Maelstrom Pulse / Veilborn Ghoul

    I only take like 12 damage or something before Convulsions outpaces Call the Bloodline, and Maelstrom Pulse can't touch Silumgar. Also Silumgar kills everything whenever it attacks. 6-0.

    2) CalvinSchwa :: No Coherent Theme
    Bitterblossom / Mogis, God of Slaughter / Stillmoon Cavalier

    I {i]think[/i] I just win as soon as I play Silumgar. I'm not quite sure how fast you are though, it might be too fast. I'm probably countering Stillmoon on the play and Mogis on the draw. If I get Stillmoon, you've hit me for 5 before I attack with Silumgar, plus 4 from Mogis, and you're at 17 from bitterblossom. So you go to 13, I go to 9, you go to 9, I go to 7, I win. On the draw, you stick Stillmoon, so I instead take 6 from faeries and 13 from Stillmoon before I attack, which sadly puts me low enough that you can hold Mogis til I have to play Silumgar, so I can't counter it. 3-3.

    3) Feyd_Ruin :: That's the Spirit!
    Exhume / Putrid Imp / Spirit of the Night

    This is pretty sweet. I've got nothing. 0-6.

    4) Magus of the Aesthetic :: Shirley Temple
    Anguished Unmaking / Countersquall / Dreadwing

    This is basically exactly the deck I built against. 6-0.

    5) ManyCookies :: Sunshine and Lollipops
    Black Sun's Zenith /Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath / Vessel of Malignity

    Holy crap, Vessel is strong. I had no idea that card existed. Best I can do is keep Charm for Ob and draw. 2-2.

    6) MyNameIsFourteen :: UB 1B Kenobi, But BB8 Is 3 More Than I Need
    Bitterblossom / Chainer's Edict / Countersquall

    Chainer's Edict has Flashback, so I'm definitely not winning. If I get Convulsions down, though, you're not allowed to play Bitterblossom, and Charm is enough to make sure that I do, even on the draw. I'm pretty sure turn 5 is fast enough. 2-2

    8) Superbajt :: Do You Have A One-Drop?
    Braids, Cabal Minion / Dark Ritual / Dark Ritual

    I literally checked the banlist for Braids, was kinda surprised it wasn't there, and then 100% forgot about it somehow when making the rest of my deck. This stomps everything but Exhume, right? 0-6.

    9) WhammeWhamme :: Ixalan's Story
    Black Sun's Zenith / Liliana's Defeat / Vraska the Unseen

    Counter Zenith, Ignore Defeat, Silumgar the Assassins. 6-0.
    7 | 6 3 0 6 2 2 X 0 6 | 24
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on Perfect Hand Draft: Round 3 : 90 Card Sealed : HANDS POSTED
    I think it would be fine to take Extra Pick even further, and just do Pick Two, from every pack. Being allowed to keep your options open sounds nice.
    Posted in: Forum Magic
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