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- rancored_elf
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Member for 19 years, 3 months, and 22 days
Last active Sun, Nov, 12 2017 15:33:07
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- 409 Thanks
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Nov 18, 20141
Discard posted a message on Best way to ship a large volume of valuable cards?Yes and yes. Thanks for the advice Rancored.Posted in: Market Street Café -
Nov 17, 20141
PhantomLotus posted a message on Linvala, keeper of silencePosted in: Market Street Café
Yeah, but you also have to add:
- Poorly opened set
- Tournament playable
- Good in EDH
Mythic Angel status alone does not a $50 card make. Iona, Shield of Emeria is from the same block, yet sees less tournament play (she's typically only used in strategies that want to reanimate her) and is from a well-opened set for the time. Her ability is strong but not as universally strong as Linvala in multiplayer. She's half the cost of Linvala. -
Nov 16, 20141
Aether7 posted a message on [[Official]] [BNG] Running Tally of highest priced cards (Updated Nov 16th)Brimaz, King of Oreskos is great but not against Siege Rhino. WW also makes him difficult to play in a 3 color deck.Posted in: Market Street Café Archive
I think his popularity was boosted by the Jeskai mirrors and now that deck has slid from popularity people have cooled on him.
Decks that can play him are more likely to rely on Goblin Rabblemaster and then would prefer Mantis Rider and Butcher of the Horde.
He's still a great blocker though and gets you out of tricky situations against any sort of random threat somebody plays against you at FNM. That has been my experience. Once I had to use him in a gang block to trade with a monstrous Polukranos, World Eater. Those 4 points of power for 3 mana are great.
Kiora, the Crashing Wave is just too vulnerable to hasty creatures to be good right now. A 4 mana explore isn't where you want to be.
Hero of Iroas might rise a couple of bucks if heroic decks start doing well. -
Nov 14, 2014
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Aether7 posted a message on [[Official]] [JOU] Running Tally of highest priced cards (Updated November 14th)Prices looking very good. Ajani, Mentor of Heroes has gone up because of demand to build the PT winning Abzan deck. He's not even that good really as the deck bricks on the card draw due to the density of removal spells. Many decks have swapped 1 for a Liliana Vess or Murderous Cut.Posted in: Market Street Café Archive
Keranos, God of Storms suffers from not being played in more than 1-2 copies and even then is more of a sideboard card. I think there was a bit of a stockpiling going on from speculators with this guy and as people that have spare copies in their folder go to cash out the market availability rises and his price drops a little. He is still the most expensive foil in standard.
I think Godsend is just a cool card. Possibly some synergy with Nahiri, the Lithomancer being white and equipment. -
Nov 14, 20141
KnickM posted a message on [[Official]] [JOU] Running Tally of highest priced cards (Updated November 14th)Posted in: Market Street Café ArchiveQuote from rancored_elf »Question: What's the deal with Godsend? Mostly casual demand? It hasn't fallen below $4. On paper, it looks to me to be simply a rarer Vulshok Battlegear that forces you into white for a tiny bonus.
It's pretty cool, it's legendary and mythic, which adds some sort of cachet, it's incredibly storyline-relevant, and is far and away the best art in the set. I agree that it's not terribly playable, but it has a lot of "cool factor" going for it. I bet that most copies are going into binders and not decks. -
Nov 13, 2014
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Aether7 posted a message on Don't fall into the Modern Masters 2 trap1. MM2 isn't an exclusive avenue for modern staple reprints. Wizards has tried hard to balance standard to the point where they're very restricted in what they can reprint right now. They have given us fetches which is pretty cool and asking for more would be greedy. That said MM2 will come it's a matter of when not if. Wizards doesn't just say "no" to making money. HASBRO IS A PROFIT MAKING BUSINESS. We all saw the fetchland announcement. High value singles on the secondary market is a licence to print money and Wizards can pretty much print 245 cards of jank with 5 high value reprints and still have their printers running hot 24 hours a day.Posted in: Market Street Café
2. The popularity of MM1 was underestimated. It was highly experimental for Wizards and they really didn't know what would happen. They're not going to make it unlimited but they're not going to make it so that people can't get it and have to pay huge mark ups. I would love to draft MM1 but getting a box is so hard. $50-$60 x 8 just doesn't make sense for many people.
3. I totally agree on this one. They can't just reprint everything at once and devalue a whole stack of cards in one fell swoop. Zendikar fetches will most likely be seen in Dragons of Tarkir in my opinion. 10 standard legal fetches is a good move because it keeps with the Wizards promise of 10 at a time cycles. There will be shuffling but it's not really powerful when you can't fetch a non-basic. -
Nov 13, 20143
Cynicath posted a message on Don't fall into the Modern Masters 2 trapTo me, it boils down to the fact that all the Modern staples will be reprinted at some point. I personally do think MM2 is coming next Summer, and that it will have a larger print run, but even if we're not operating under that assumption, WotC has shown that they're willing to reprint expensive cards and drop their prices significantly. I've been aggressively trying to move my excess Modern staples into reserved list stuff while the gettin' is good. Do I expect my actions to be vindicated in the next 6 months? No. In the next 5 years? Yes.Posted in: Market Street Café
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Nov 12, 2014
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Aether7 posted a message on [M15] Running Tally of highest priced cards (Updated Jan 28th)Thanks for the update r_e.Posted in: Market Street Café Archive
I lost a bit of money on Garruk and Jace and got minimal play from them.
My Garruk, Apex Predator has killed one Sorin, Solemn Visitor and then promptly bit the dust when I played him in my janky Abzan deck on KoT release night. I take solace in the fact I was able to declare proudly that he was "hunting bigger game"
I've seen a bit of an uptick in Chord of Calling being played in the last week or so. I think $5 might be a good buy. Also the card it is being combo'd with seems nice and cheap Hornet Nest.
It really looks like the set has settled quite a bit. Your prices on painlands are really good.
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Nov 12, 2014
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huktonfonix posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Huge GainersTCG is down to 9 sellers for Forked Bolt. As crazy as it is for an uncommon in a set only a few years out of print, $3 seems unrealistically low right now.Posted in: Market Street Café Archive - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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What an incredible set! We begin with THIRTY cards worth opening:
1) Jace, Architect of Thought (29)
2) Vraska the Unseen (25)
3) Abrupt Decay (18)
4) Armada Wurm (14)
5) Hallowed Fountain (14)
6) Overgrown Tomb (14)
7) Steam Vents (13)
8) Temple Garden (13)
9) Blood Crypt (12)
10) Angel of Serenity (11)
11) Lotleth Troll (11)
12) Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius (8)
13) Rakdos's Return (8)
14) Rakdos, Lord of Riots (8)
15) Trostani, Selesnya's Voice (8)
16) Dreadbore (7)
17) Supreme Verdict (7)
18) Detention Sphere (6)
19) Chromatic Lantern (5)
20) Deathrite Shaman (5)
21) Epic Experiment (4.5)
22) Loxodon Smiter (4.5)
23) Cyclonic Rift (4)
24) Desecration Demon (3.5)
25) Mizzium Mortars (3.5)
26) Nivmagus Elemental (3.5)
27) Sphinx's Revelation (3.5)
28) Ash Zealot (3)
29) Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord (3)
30) Worldspine Wurm (3)
The card's most recent move is on right.
Indeed, 30 cards (a full page of inventory on my website) are worth opening in a pack right now. There are also a handful of $2.50 and $2 cards on page 2, and browsing lower, not many rares in the 50c crap bin, compared to other recent sets anyway. The set's value does seem concentrated in the rares and uncommons, which is a very nice thing to see. Not that there aren't a few good commons and mythics.
The two planeswalkers take the top 2 spots, which isn't unusual. They are the most likely to drop drastically, statistically speaking. They'll need to prove themselves quickly to stay on top. Abrupt Decay is the top rare, and is certainly getting a lot of attention. Factors going for it are it's in a popular guild, it's an instant, and it's only 2 mana. Factors against are the limitations on targets, being multicolored, countermagic not being a huge force in Standard right now, and not being mythic. It's hard to see it moving up in price from here, but also hard to see it fall much below $15. Many older decks/formats will scoop it up in multiples because countermagic is more prevalent and the mana being easier to come up with. Armada Wurm at 4th simply can't maintain that spot, period. It's an undercosted vanilla fatty, essentially. 10 power for 6 is great, but we've had plenty of 8/8s for 6 and so on, which looked good at first and then rarely saw play. I see this coming WAAAAY down the list. The shocklands are bunched together from 5th to 9th and I don't see them going anywhere. Almost the best lands ever printed, and unlikely to ever be obsoleted, these are the real deal. Angel of Serenity doesn't look very good to me up this high. It's going to see play somewhere, and casual/Angel fans will use it, but unless there'\s a combo I'm not seeing, it should cool. Lotleth Trolls is a lovely little bugger. I'm very very partial to Golgari myself, so I have to be careful not to overvalue it. That said, wow, quite the little package, no? Super cheap, protects himself, evasion, and a built-in engine to grow and trigger other Golgari effects. May cool some if his deck doesn't pan out, but can't go too much lower simply because he's just so, SO undercosted. Could be a staple for many years. Dracogenius is undeniably powerful, just not in the strongest guild, but should maintain a good portion of current price. As for Rakdos's Return, simple utility spells should never be mythic, or even rare. Shame! (Same goes for Sphinx's Revelation.) At $8, return seems overpriced to me. None of the values for X seem overly playable, and I'm not sold on Rakdos as a deck right now. I'm hesitant to pick up any around this price. At 14th spot, Rakdos himself doesn't look very strong either, for similar reasons. Also, I don't see how his ability works in a deck. Swing for 6 damage, then cast a free Wurmcoil Engine? I dunno, seems like win-more. Trostani is hard to read. It has been rising on SCG for the past week, I think they have it at $10 now. Quite potent, and repeatable populate is nice, I'm just not sure how strong it will actually perform. We shall see! Dreadbore is a solid removal spell but at $7, seems pricey. Murder and other cheap versatile removal is reasonably plentiful. Being in 2 colours hurts a removal spell. So does being a Sorcery. Being able to hit planeswalkers gives it an edge, but that edge's size depends on the prevalence of planeswalkers, which can come and go. This could stay hot, or it could dip. Supreme Verdict comes in at 17th, and I believe it may be undercosted. MANY decks all through Magic play Wrath effects, and a huge number of those are white/blue. Additionally, being uncounterable is massive in those older formats. I think players are pricing this as though it's Day of Judgement, which has recently fallen to a very cheap card due to all the reprintings. But this has never been reprinted, the supply we've got is all we'll get, for a very long time or perhaps forever. The demand for this card could push it up above $10 easily. I really don't see it doing poorly. Detention Sphere isn't just rarer than Oblivion Ring, it's more powerful as well. Does the addition of blue hurt it that badly? I guess we'll find out. I love Chromatic Lantern and see it as a huge enabler that will be sought after all through this block. One of the best mana rocks printed in recent years. Deathrite Shaman is interesting. One one hand, cheap and easy to play, 3 interesting abilities. But it's vulnerable, a bit slow, and requires a fair bit of setup before it can do what it wants to do. Being an Elf will boost it with the casual demand, and it's in a great guild, so it won't be worthless. I do see it cooling a bit though. Epic Experiment is weird and I can't really judge it very well. Unless a deck picks it up and abuses it, it may fall from the tally after a few updates. Loxodon Smiter impresses on paper but is mainly just a Watchwolf with +1/+1 for
Just off the list are Counterflux, Isperia, Rest in Peace, Utvara Hellkite, and Necropolis Regent.
Uncommon of note are Dryad Militant 1.5, Judge's Familiar 1.25, Treasured Find 1, Call of the Conclave 1, Dreg Mangler 1, Guttersnipe 1, Rakdos Cackler 1, Selesnya Charm 1, Ultimate Price 1, Azorius Charm 0.75, Izzet Charm 0.75, Selesnya Keyrune 0.75, and Slitherhead 0.75.
Some thoughts about other cards I had while adding this set to inventory:
Blistercoil Weird - Currently priced like a junk uncommon. Seems very strong with all the "sorcery or instant spell" effects in those two colours. In many decks it's a 2/2 or even 3/3 with vigilance for 1.
Deadbridge Goliath - Biggest 4 mana creature without drawbacks ever printed.... $1.5 per playset?
Ethereal Armor - Although it's a bit weird that armor could give someone first strike, this is an insanely powerful card. Enchantment decks commonly have 6, 8, 10, or more enchantments in play within the first few turns. +6/+6 for one mana is very fun.
Jarad's Orders - Beautifully designed card. A combo piece that sets up very powerful plays. Worldly Tutor (G), a cantrip (2), and Entomb (B) all in one. Potentially undervalued.
Mana Bloom - At $1 or less could be a sleeper. Accelerates and/or fixes mana starting turn 2 and stays with you all game.
Martial Law - Am I missing something? Why is this so much more mana, and rarer, than Arrest? Because you can change the creature later on?
Pack Rat - I guess Rats are only for casual, but at 25c each this seems cheap. 3rd turn you have 2 2/2s, 4th turn you have 3 3/3s, etc. And that's all without help from other cards, a 1 card engine.
Pithing Needle was $20 until it was reprinted. Now it's 1.50, which shows you what increasing supply does to something, despite demand still being strong.
Precinct Captain - I really love white weenie and this is strong. But it's a bit weird that the soldiers he summons don't have another creature type. They aren't human? If not, what are they?
Righteous Authority - Must be a lot worse in actuality than on paper? 5 mana to draw an extra card each turn, plus a huge pump to your creature.
Stealer of Secrets - "Stealer"? Really? Reminds me of "Beast Attack". Anyway, interestingly prominent crotch-plate and breasts-plate...
Wayfaring Temple - Seems well worth the dollar you'll pay for it. Crusader of Odric plus populate every time he hits the opponent, nice.
The next update will be in 24 to 48 hours. Enjoy!
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RTR is now fully revealed and preselling... see how it affects INN:
1) Liliana of the Veil
2) Geist of Saint Traft
3) Snapcaster Mage
4) Woodland Cemetery
5) Garruk Relentless the Veil-Cursed
6) Isolated Chapel
7) Sulfur Falls
8) Hinterland Harbor
9) Clifftop Retreat
10) Olivia Voldaren
11) Champion of the Parish
12) Bloodline Keeper Lord of Lineage
(Key: The card's most recent move is on the right. This indicates the hottest mover of the update.
The Vampires had their day about a month ago, but for some reason, Olivia waited until now to shoot up. Likewise, the dual lands had already doubled in price last update, and were all stable between then and now... except Woodland Cemetery, which went and doubled in price AGAIN to $12. Oh yeah, Snapcaster Mage and Liliana switched places leaving Liliana on top and Snapcaster at 3rd, just under Geist.
I hope it was as good for me as it was for you!
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Bonfire makes history:
1) Bonfire of the Damned (47)
2) Cavern of Souls (20)
3) Tamiyo, the Moon Sage (16)
4) Entreat the Angels (14)
5) Griselbrand (11)
6) Restoration Angel (10)
7) Avacyn, Angel of Hope (9)
8) Temporal Mastery (7)
9) Sigarda, Host of Herons (5.5)
10) Gisela, Blade of Goldnight (4.5)
11) Terminus (4)
12) Wolfir Silverheart (4)
13) Silverblade Paladin (3.5)
The card's most recent move is on right.
The card I predicted would fall off the tally has now become one of the most expensive Magic cards of all time. $47 per copy and rising fast, Bonfire has a life of its own, currently gaining about $25 per playset every week! Cavern of Souls is very strong, having never fallen below $20 - one of the best rares ever printed. Other than that, every card in the set lost about 5% since my last update. No changes needed to be made to the tally - every card (except Bonfire of course) lost value in an orderly fashion, simplifying this update rather nicely.
Box value continues to fall, as it takes more than one skyrocketing card to offset the overall downward trend, thanks to overprinting, limited formats flooding the market with unwanted singles, and MTGO redemptions flooding the market with, well, unwanted singles.
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Grind to Dust - BGW
Sorcery (U)
Exile target permanent.
"Even your dust will be erased."
Sort of a combination of Vindicate and Pulse in terms of mana cost/colours, with an upgrade in effect to deal with Undying and so forth. Could be a rare, but I don't see it being much of a problem in limited because of the colours needed, but that would depend on the environment. I prefer it as a solid uncommon I think.
Femeref Paramour - 3G
Creature - Human Druid (U)
Whenever an artifact or enchantment dies, draw a card.
"Then she spread a fine dust over the land, like a butterfly shaking its wing." —The Enchantress, Femeref tale
1/4
Similar to Femeref Enchantress (with Viridian Revel thrown on). I don't have a problem with white getting involved in this effect but I don't see why green can't do it alone.
Darksteel Construct - 4
Artifact Creature - Golem (R)
Defender
Darksteel Construct is indestructible.
"It came from dust. If I designed it correctly, it won't return there."
4/4
Ready to be Ground to Dust!
I forget what inspired me to design this one a few months back, or how I arrived at those stats, but looking at it now it seems a bit strong.
Thanks
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NAME - 2BBB
Creature - Specter (R)
Flying, fear
Whenever NAME deals combat damage to a player, that player discards a card at random.
4/4
(A strong but not very interesting specter variant.)
Now something to get back all those yummy Bottle Gnomes!
Toolbox Gnome - 3
Artifact Creature - Gnome (R)
,T: Put target Gnome card from your graveyard onto the battlefield.
2/2
Okay at mana acceleration and okay at early combat:
Llanowar Herbalist - GG
Creature - Elf Druid (C)
Vigilance
T: Add G to your mana pool.
2/1
From what I've seen, it's okay for black to gain life, as long as it's "coming from somewhere". An Unearth variant:
Reinvigorate - B
Sorcery (C)
Put target creature card with converted mana cost 2 or less from your graveyard onto the battlefield.
Gain life equal to that creature's converted mana cost.
Thanks a lot!
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An update requested by drakeavril:
1) Ajani, Caller of the Pride (20)
2) Sublime Archangel (20)
3) Thundermaw Hellkite (19)
4) Liliana of the Dark Realms (16)
5) Thragtusk (11)
6) Jace, Memory Adept (7)
7) Garruk, Primal Hunter (5.5)
8) Akroma's Memorial (5)
9) Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (5)
10) Talrand, Sky Summoner (5)
11) Vampire Nocturnus (5)
12) Master of the Pearl Trident (4)
The card's most recent move is on right.
As you can see, things have quietened down for M13 lately. There have only been a handful of posts in this thread since the last update, and for the first time ever, the running tally went completely unchanged. Ajani did lose $1 to nestle down next to Sublime at $20 but otherwise, and remarkably, there have been absolutely zero price moves whatsoever for the entire tally! Thragtusk has surprised me by not falling below $10 since it first broke above that level in the first week or so. Krenko (the Goblin that makes more Goblins) has looked strong recently and could be about to break onto the tally next time I update.
Box value is still pretty low (not much above $100, if that) but at least it doesn't appear to be falling very fast right now.
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After more than a week, some trends are showing up:
1) Ajani, Caller of the Pride (27)
2) Thundermaw Hellkite (22)
3) Sublime Archangel (21)
4) Liliana of the Dark Realms (20)
5) Thragtusk (13)
6) Jace, Memory Adept (7.5)
7) Vampire Nocturnus (7)
8) Akroma's Memorial (6)
9) Garruk, Primal Hunter (6)
10) Master of the Pearl Trident (5.5)
11) Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (5)
12) Yeva, Nature's Herald (4.75)
13) Omniscience (4.5)
14) Talrand, Sky Summoner (4)
15) Chandra, the Firebrand (3.5)
The card's most recent move is on right.
As Ajani cools a bit to $27 (but still a ways out in front), Thragtusk moves up to $13. So instead of a "fab 4" in the set, it looks like we have a "high 5". Nothing else comes close, which is worrying. In any case, Thundermaw has received an important endorsement yesterday and has since jumped up five bucks to land at $22, and could be headed for 25. Sublime doesn't disappoint though, looking strong at $21 and 3rd slot while Liliana takes her turn cooling a bit this update. Jace gained a little ground against the stagnant Memorial and Nocturnus. Master of the Pearl Trident doesn't look very strong at $6 but might be better suited at $5 for now. I wonder if it will drop to $3 or less once the Legacy players all have their copies? Or will it hold value in the long term, as one of the best Lords ever printed? Bolas looks stale, Yeva is holding up but as a rare and a Legend may have trouble staying at $5 for long, although it should be a casual staple for years if nothing else. Omniscience has a short future on the tally, if you ask me. While not a reprint, I don't think it's going to spawn a deck of its own, or even fit into an existing deck. It'll probably find itself in the casual realm, but with such a high mana cost, not widely used or sought-after. Talrand seems to move briskly at $4 and I think could still break through as a deck in itself with all the support the "instants and sorceries" theme blue has been getting. Chandra flounders at the bottom of the list. When it drops off, Hellkite will be the only red card in the set you're happy to open.
A couple comments about lower value rares. Redirect has doubled (from a mere 50c, but still) in the last couple weeks. Blue creature-based decks that need a different answer to Rancor than Unsummon, perhaps? Sunpetal Grove is selling quickly and may actually jump onto the tally if the price continues to rise. Green and white decks are popular and should be strong through the release of Ravnica, and potentially beyond if they get any support at all.
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Never heard of him, but that's interesting. BOLD, in fact.
Interestingly, I checked the price this morning and it was easily obtainable for $17 (having slipped over the past week from $20). Now, 8 hours later, it looks like $20 or even $25 is the going rate. I wonder if that prediction caused some speculative buying? If so, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. At least for a while. Eventually, a market of this size will reach equilibrium again. I'm reminded of the hype behind, uhhhh.... dang. I can't even remember the card. It was a couple sets ago, and somebody "big" said it was going to be huge, and then it was.... for a week. Now, well, I can't even remember what card it is, that's how wrong they were.
I think pwner's comparison to the red Titan is a good one and would like to see him extrapolate it more.
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Mythics which aren't reprints dominate the tally:
1) Ajani, Caller of the Pride (32)
2) Sublime Archangel (20)
3) Thundermaw Hellkite (20)
4) Liliana of the Dark Realms (19)
5) Omniscience (9)
6) Thragtusk (9)
7) Vampire Nocturnus (9)
8) Akroma's Memorial (8)
9) Jace, Memory Adept (8)
10) Garruk, Primal Hunter (7)
11) Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (7)
12) Yeva, Nature's Herald (5)
13) Chandra, the Firebrand (4.5)
14) Master of the Pearl Trident (4.5)
15) Serra Avatar (4.5)
16) Talrand, Sky Summoner (4)
17) Gilded Lotus (3.5)
18) Mutilate (3.25)
The card's most recent move is on right.
Out of this large set, just 18 cards are worth as much as, or more than, the price I pay for a booster pack. Therefore, the M13 tally begins with 18 entries. Just under the $3 cutoff are Cathedral of War, Elderscale Wurm, Primordial Hydra, Serra Avenger, Slumbering Dragon, Disciple of Bolas, and the blue dual lands. Depending how things go, these cards may end up making the cut in a later update.
As you see, very few M13 rares are worth opening in a pack - unless you crack Thragtusk, you're probably not very happy. Mythics of course are another matter, and again carry most of the value in the set. Planeswalkers seem to always be made powerful enough to top the list, and of course in this set we have the severely undercosted Hellkite and Archangel. But Ajani stands way out in front, uncontested, a full $12 higher than either of them, or the lovely Liliana. The misnamed Omniscience comes in at 5th, way down at $9. The lack of anything in the $10-$20 range severely puts a damper on this set's box value, unfortunately. Thragtusk is the top rare at the moment and I'm not sure where it will go, as it is hard to evaluate, even though I usually know green cards well. Vampire Nocturnus is the highest reprint, and may not hold that price point unless it performs very well. The list degenerates from there, and many won't make it more than another update or two before they disappear.
For uncommons, Reliquary Tower is quite pricey (these days anyhow) at $1.50 while Rancor, Augur of Bolas, Rewind, Tormod's Crypt, Vampire Nighthawk, and Jace's Phantasm are all $1. Since there are a ton of rares (most of them, actually) worth 50c or less, it's good to have some help from a handful of playable uncommons. Personally I like the Knights of Infamy and Glory, but they don't seem to be selling for much.
I'll be following the set's price moves closely over the first few days and weeks, and then regularly as the set matures.
I hope this was worth reading!