Hey, nothing wrong with a good list (or three ). And I never said people shouldn't/couldn't object to a plan. But that's all Dusk seems to do (*exaggeration*)
Carrion, I looked at that post and saw nothing, so it's too subliminal for me. I don't understand why, if you were a "vanilla" townie, that wouldn't have made you suspect Greebo less, since he claimed vanilla first, instead of still trying to get him lynched.
And claiming vanilla really does not help the town that much right now. (Unless you really are NOT vanilla and this is a clever ruse, in which case--go for it ).
Still, in the interests of speeding up the game, I will now convert my FOS into a:
Number of Red Claimers: 3
Number of Blue Claimers: 3
Number of Green Claimers: 3
Number of Black Claimers: 1
Number of White Claimers: 0
Blue or Green: 1
Red or Green: 1
Number of remaining players who have claimed Non-Black: 11 (one has also said not Green)
Number who have claimed nothing at all about color: 6 (two of these have not posted this entire game)
I may have jumped the gun on the whole "the Paladins may be the only White" thing. I just realized that it was the only color no one had claimed. But there are still plenty of players who have said nothing or only that they are "non-black." Perhaps the White players are simply being judicious which is a wise thing, I think.
The only non-rare claim was SorryGuy, but technically there are several people who haven't said anything about their rarity as well.
It is quite possible I have made a few errors here and there. Anyone with a different count, please feel free to post it.
Okay, nobody claim any more colors until I get through with my list. What fade said about the possibility of the only "white" being the Paladins is looking more and more like a real possibility, so any kind of color claim further narrows the pool.
Yes, well that 78% figure was indeed mine, but I did realize shortly after I posted that it was flawed. We have 21-22 townies, right? At the moment three have said what card they are:
Assuming for the moment that they are town, roughly 18-19 townies are left to claim. But one has said he's a common so he has to be left out of this equation. That makes 17-18. There are 36 Non-Black Rares (I think--not including artifacts. I think the chances of someone claiming an artifact at this point are small). With 3 rares being claimed, that leaves 33 possible remaining claims. Those are, in fact, not real good odds for trapping someone.
Dusk, despite the fact that your criticizm is correct, I've decided you are too negative. It seems you always criticize and never try to put forward any kind of proposal that might help. Come on, I know you can. Unfortunately for me, you have done this every game I have been in with you and you were also town each time, so I can't say that this behavior is suspicious. It's just not helpful.
I'm going to do a claim list in a little while to see where everybody is. Then we can maybe decide what's the next best step. My FOS is on pawn907, and the non-posters (when do they get replaced anyway?)
I also missed the request for a general "Red" claim.
SorryGuy is such an anomaly at this point that I really would expect him to be the only black "townie," along with being the only common. This, as I said before, merits an investigation since he is so out there, but not a lynch vote, as it seems far too risky for a mafia to come out like that (assuming a black mafia.) There are 2 people yet to post at all, however, so anything is still possible.
I have just realized my math is off by a bit (teach me to "think" out loud). I, of course, included the mafia in my calculation of how many available claims would be in each color, which I should not have done. If we assume 7-8 mafia this game. Then the "town" has 21-22 players. Divided over 4 colors means 5-6 "townies" in each color, meaning the mafia do have some room to find safe claims in every color, and better odds in the colors with more claims (like Blue, incidentally, which has 10 Rare creatures. Possibly a smart mafia realized this and jumped for that color early?)
Puzzle, I agree we should finish the rarity claims first as that will tell whether this is completely off base or not. I can't promise to be the list maker, though I would like to be, because I am swamped right now and already spending more time than I should on this game.
Well I'm not going to push that idea in light of what Basement said. I need ot make a list of Suspicious/Innocent looking, but I just can't seems to make the time between this and the other games and my so called life.
Unsan's okay in my eyes, but I'm not quite ready to leave Greebo alone just yet. And I'm also not quite ready to do a Kamigawa-style claim. Didn't you come out against that claim back then, Axel?
I came out against it eventually when I realized that the sheer number of claims + the way we were doing it, was giving the mafia the opportunity to find safe claims. I'm not advocating the same thing right now, but I'm pointing out that (if certain assumptions we are making are true) the situation is different. There are far fewer claims to go around relative to the number of people in the game. Still enough for the mafia to find safe claims, but with a lot less wriggle-room.
Right now, if a person just randomly declared their card, they would have about a 78% chance of declaring a card someone else has. Not good odds for mafia, but we might be able to make the odds even worse.
For example (I'm just thinking out loud here): let's say we all color-claimed. Furthermore, let's say that Highroller has more or less evenly distributed the town among the 4 non-black colors (I don't expcet it to be perfectly even, but not widely disproportionate). That would mean 7 people to a color (plus Sorry). Well, Red only has seven rare creatures in it. That's no wiggle room at all for a mafia. Any mafia trying to hide in Red has to either wait until everyone else has declared themselves to be sure he doesn't pick the wrong card, or risk guessing wrong. And the odds get worse the earlier he tries to claim. In Green, which has 10 rares, there's a little more wiggle room--but again, this means mafia might be more likely to try and hide in Green, which means we would see a "disproportionate" number of Green claimers, and could focus our efforts accordingly. If 8 people said they were Green, for example, instead of the "average" of 7. Then the odds are 8/10 or 80% that a random green claim would be countered.
This might not work at all. It could be a bad idea. Just throwing it out there for possible discussion.
Um, this may be a bit out of the blue, but here's a general sort of question. How many people have "roles" that would be essentially given away if the "name" of said role was revealed? Meaning, the mafia would be able to figure out your ability or figure out if you had an ability at all. Meaning that, if you were a hypothetical "power" role, you would be exposed. I have been wondering about this based on several remarks which have been made so far this game (plus my own role), plus Musashi's role.
If the abilities can't be figured out from the name, then we should, perhaps, be a bit more forthcoming with our names than this letter claiming. Not saying that we just come right out and say them, but perhaps come up with a strategy to best use this information. If the names are not directly tied to abilities, then their primary usefulness will be in confirming townies (if other townies have the same name).
And when I say names directly tied to abilities, I really mean obviously. Take Musashi again. People say "Warrior" is a name which implies Vigilante, and it certainly could be, but not necessarily. It could be many things, including a plain vanilla role. Now if your role was "Medicine Man" or something like that, it might be more obvious, but even then, I wouldn't put it past fade to have roles which "sound like" they should do one thing, but which, in fact, do another.
I'm not asking for names right now. Just wondering if "Name-Claiming" would actually give very much away.
Draygn: I'm curious about your inquiry to Titus. Do you think he has the same "name" as you based on your letter? It seems you do, but you also think he has a different ability. Is that right? I won't question farther as this may be something only Titus will/would understand.
So I think Dusk pointed it out earlier, but if we are looking at primarily Rare cards (everyone but Sorryguy so far?), and if we are looking at Non-Black cards (again, everyone but Sorryguy?) there are only 36 possible cards for people to be. In a game with 29 players, only one of whom has claimed black, that's almost all of them. A black mafia (looking more and more like a possibility) will be hard pressed to come up with a claim that isn't countered.
That's why both Greebo and Unsan are looking okay. They have claimed and claimed early when the odds greatly favor a counterclaim if they were lying. Mahamoti is a stronger claim just because it's a better card and more likely to be in the game. Okk could have been a lucky guess by Greebo (one of the 8 "open" claims, and he might have hoped that Highroller wouldn't have picked it because it stinks), but I must give him the benefit of the doubt on that.
Just saying that the Mafia may be a bit pinched right now so we should go carefully. The strategy employed in Kamigawa mafia might be more effective here because of the reduced number of possible claims. In Kamigawa, there were almost twice as many possible claims as roles (something like 37 to 20). So there was lots of wiggle room for the mafia. There are simply less here as things currently appear. There may be a good strategy that can be employed to box them in (which I can't think of right now because my brain is fried.) Perhaps now would be the time for a mass color claim? To see how the distribution lies? We've got 3 blues already and 2 red. (Plus one black, though Sorryguy is looking like a red herring right now - still probably worth an investigation).
What do people think? And whatever you think, we should probably leave Unsan and Greebo alone for the moment.
epeeguy: don't bold a name if you are not voting. That's confusing.
Well, if unsan doesn't claim, or defend himself a little better, I might switch my vote over. It stays on Greebo for now though.
Why are people automatically assuming that the Mafia are only in one or two colours? I think the last few Dominaria Mafias that 'Roller has made, there's been an even distribution in all colours. Although...the nature of this game might not allow it, but it's still a possibility.
It certainly is a possibility. And I don't think anyone is discounting it. But if they were going to be spread about, as you said, one's instinct would be to spread them out evenly, but we already "know" that there are two black paladins hidden amongst us. It can't be 2 of every color because that would be too many. So it's either all black or some uneven distribution, which again is certainly possible, but I would say slightly less likely.
Plus, no one has admitted to being black yet that I recall. 2 have said Red, and 3 have said blue, and I'm not Black, and we "know" we have 2 white paladins, so that's looking slightly worse for that color as well.
Edit while previewing: appears I was sarnathed on the even distribution thing.
I also would enjoy playing a "blind" game sometime. I'm beginning to feel like some posters carry too much baggage with them into a game already. which makes it less fun for them as well as others. Looks like I'm not eligible for this one, however. Plus, I need to cut down on mafia games. They are taking over my life.
Carrion, I looked at that post and saw nothing, so it's too subliminal for me. I don't understand why, if you were a "vanilla" townie, that wouldn't have made you suspect Greebo less, since he claimed vanilla first, instead of still trying to get him lynched.
And claiming vanilla really does not help the town that much right now. (Unless you really are NOT vanilla and this is a clever ruse, in which case--go for it
Still, in the interests of speeding up the game, I will now convert my FOS into a:
Vote: Pawn907
Number of Blue Claimers: 3
Number of Green Claimers: 3
Number of Black Claimers: 1
Number of White Claimers: 0
Blue or Green: 1
Red or Green: 1
Number of remaining players who have claimed Non-Black: 11 (one has also said not Green)
Number who have claimed nothing at all about color: 6 (two of these have not posted this entire game)
I may have jumped the gun on the whole "the Paladins may be the only White" thing. I just realized that it was the only color no one had claimed. But there are still plenty of players who have said nothing or only that they are "non-black." Perhaps the White players are simply being judicious which is a wise thing, I think.
The only non-rare claim was SorryGuy, but technically there are several people who haven't said anything about their rarity as well.
It is quite possible I have made a few errors here and there. Anyone with a different count, please feel free to post it.
Be back later.
Greebo: Okk
Unsan: Mahamoti Djinn
epeeguy: Elvish Champion
Assuming for the moment that they are town, roughly 18-19 townies are left to claim. But one has said he's a common so he has to be left out of this equation. That makes 17-18. There are 36 Non-Black Rares (I think--not including artifacts. I think the chances of someone claiming an artifact at this point are small). With 3 rares being claimed, that leaves 33 possible remaining claims. Those are, in fact, not real good odds for trapping someone.
Dusk, despite the fact that your criticizm is correct, I've decided you are too negative. It seems you always criticize and never try to put forward any kind of proposal that might help. Come on, I know you can. Unfortunately for me, you have done this every game I have been in with you and you were also town each time, so I can't say that this behavior is suspicious. It's just not helpful.
I'm going to do a claim list in a little while to see where everybody is. Then we can maybe decide what's the next best step. My FOS is on pawn907, and the non-posters (when do they get replaced anyway?)
I also missed the request for a general "Red" claim.
UnFOS: Everybody I am FOSing
Those were not strong FOSs anyway. Mainly wanted to see how they defended themselves to my questioning.
Puzzle, I agree we should finish the rarity claims first as that will tell whether this is completely off base or not. I can't promise to be the list maker, though I would like to be, because I am swamped right now and already spending more time than I should on this game.
I came out against it eventually when I realized that the sheer number of claims + the way we were doing it, was giving the mafia the opportunity to find safe claims. I'm not advocating the same thing right now, but I'm pointing out that (if certain assumptions we are making are true) the situation is different. There are far fewer claims to go around relative to the number of people in the game. Still enough for the mafia to find safe claims, but with a lot less wriggle-room.
Right now, if a person just randomly declared their card, they would have about a 78% chance of declaring a card someone else has. Not good odds for mafia, but we might be able to make the odds even worse.
For example (I'm just thinking out loud here): let's say we all color-claimed. Furthermore, let's say that Highroller has more or less evenly distributed the town among the 4 non-black colors (I don't expcet it to be perfectly even, but not widely disproportionate). That would mean 7 people to a color (plus Sorry). Well, Red only has seven rare creatures in it. That's no wiggle room at all for a mafia. Any mafia trying to hide in Red has to either wait until everyone else has declared themselves to be sure he doesn't pick the wrong card, or risk guessing wrong. And the odds get worse the earlier he tries to claim. In Green, which has 10 rares, there's a little more wiggle room--but again, this means mafia might be more likely to try and hide in Green, which means we would see a "disproportionate" number of Green claimers, and could focus our efforts accordingly. If 8 people said they were Green, for example, instead of the "average" of 7. Then the odds are 8/10 or 80% that a random green claim would be countered.
This might not work at all. It could be a bad idea. Just throwing it out there for possible discussion.
If the abilities can't be figured out from the name, then we should, perhaps, be a bit more forthcoming with our names than this letter claiming. Not saying that we just come right out and say them, but perhaps come up with a strategy to best use this information. If the names are not directly tied to abilities, then their primary usefulness will be in confirming townies (if other townies have the same name).
And when I say names directly tied to abilities, I really mean obviously. Take Musashi again. People say "Warrior" is a name which implies Vigilante, and it certainly could be, but not necessarily. It could be many things, including a plain vanilla role. Now if your role was "Medicine Man" or something like that, it might be more obvious, but even then, I wouldn't put it past fade to have roles which "sound like" they should do one thing, but which, in fact, do another.
I'm not asking for names right now. Just wondering if "Name-Claiming" would actually give very much away.
Draygn: I'm curious about your inquiry to Titus. Do you think he has the same "name" as you based on your letter? It seems you do, but you also think he has a different ability. Is that right? I won't question farther as this may be something only Titus will/would understand.
That's why both Greebo and Unsan are looking okay. They have claimed and claimed early when the odds greatly favor a counterclaim if they were lying. Mahamoti is a stronger claim just because it's a better card and more likely to be in the game. Okk could have been a lucky guess by Greebo (one of the 8 "open" claims, and he might have hoped that Highroller wouldn't have picked it because it stinks), but I must give him the benefit of the doubt on that.
Just saying that the Mafia may be a bit pinched right now so we should go carefully. The strategy employed in Kamigawa mafia might be more effective here because of the reduced number of possible claims. In Kamigawa, there were almost twice as many possible claims as roles (something like 37 to 20). So there was lots of wiggle room for the mafia. There are simply less here as things currently appear. There may be a good strategy that can be employed to box them in (which I can't think of right now because my brain is fried.) Perhaps now would be the time for a mass color claim? To see how the distribution lies? We've got 3 blues already and 2 red. (Plus one black, though Sorryguy is looking like a red herring right now - still probably worth an investigation).
What do people think? And whatever you think, we should probably leave Unsan and Greebo alone for the moment.
epeeguy: don't bold a name if you are not voting. That's confusing.
It's not "Queing?"
It certainly is a possibility. And I don't think anyone is discounting it. But if they were going to be spread about, as you said, one's instinct would be to spread them out evenly, but we already "know" that there are two black paladins hidden amongst us. It can't be 2 of every color because that would be too many. So it's either all black or some uneven distribution, which again is certainly possible, but I would say slightly less likely.
Plus, no one has admitted to being black yet that I recall. 2 have said Red, and 3 have said blue, and I'm not Black, and we "know" we have 2 white paladins, so that's looking slightly worse for that color as well.
Edit while previewing: appears I was sarnathed on the even distribution thing.