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  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Well, this is not a No lynch situation for me, so, I'm going to be checking in.

    If someone wants to make an impassioned pitch for why KCC is better, do it now. Seems like both of them have made sincere sounding posts when on the brink of being lynched.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from Lastwhisper »
    Quote from Killjoy »
    It*

    I generally don't like those types of posts, but I want to see what you see in it.
    I means what there not to like? town!Wisp can be hedgy too, or do you want me to just continually scream and shout

    I think Keldeo is putting in a lot of effort to not die here, and like the rebuttal is, "Well he roleblocked Fulcrum and didnt claim it"
    but I guess to be fair the above can be said about a lot of people
    Idk why we are so honed on Keldeo though

    @Vaimes
    ya I probably would defend him here if we are wolf buddies, but we arent, at least I'm not

    Areyou voting for anyone?
    Quote from Vaimes »
    Keldeo is so nice and reasonable. I don’t really want to kill him.

    Is it too late to swing?
    I mean, you're voting for me? Is that how you want it to swing? You ought to know this post does nothing to change anyone's mind.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Pre-releasing all day today. I guess if the deadline is 11:00 p.m. e.s.t. I'll be back before then.

    I do kinda like how Keldeo's posting now. But, I don't know if that's in his range or not, and I just don't see how we realistically lynch anyone else.

    I don't read too much into the lack of pushback for this lynch, just because it's one of two things (1) Mafia happy with the situation and not rocking the boat or (2) Mafia basically conceding it, which would not be unlike yesterday with Rhand. And the one isn't all that much more likely than the other.

    If Keldeo is Town, well, I guess I'm revisiting all my assumptions. Maybe I get NK and don't have to. I think my second best ability is on tonight.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    And in the meantime, you - you know, the one being lynched - could do it much more effectively, knowing your own alignment, that is.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from Keldeo »
    I didn’t want to claim or soft day 1??

    Like what would have made you townread my reaction to KCC’a claim? Saying “hey guys I’m a roleblocker too, what do you think of KCC’a role?” Should I just full claim SOD1 from now on?
    And I'll say this again, for future reference. It's not about claiming - though some Town just can't help themselves in a situation like that. It's not about "softing" - though, again, I feel like most Town would be motivated to post something in a situation like that. It's about saying/doing nothing. Having zero reaction when it seems like you ought to have had one. Trying to figure out KCC, instead of appearing mostly indifferent to her and asking other people questions.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from Keldeo »

    Axel, your point that I didn’t push Proph and that is suspicious doesn’t make sense, either. Consider the world you are in: I am mafia, Rhand is mafia, Proph is (?). If Proph is town, I should have pushed him harder so that Rhand or I wouldn’t have been in that situation, no?
    No?

    I mean, you might have played it that way, but you easily might not have? You're not very big on pushes in general, it seems. I don't know if that's Town-you or scum-you or both. The non-committal aspect of it is part of what I don't like, in that - as scum - it looks like you're afraid to make a hard push on Town-Proph and (1) be wrong, and (2) potentially tie yourself to rhand. As Town I don't know what you're doing, or perhaps I should say what you're doing is something I would never do. This would not be the first time I voted someone for not playing the way I thought they should play. But this is also not the only time you've done it.

    There's too many times of me going Eyebrow
    And if Proph is mafia, why make that post saying that people should consolidate onto me/Rhand/Proph at all? I am not someone who will yell at people to lynch my pet read or something.
    That post was almost redundant with what was happening in the game already. That's why I said it sounded somewhat "helpful townie." As scum, you make that post just hoping it will look good later, one way or the other. You guys are probably talking about it in the scum-chat, and maybe conceding the likelihood one of you is going down. Maybe rhand goes down, and you can say you helped. Maybe things actually consolidate onto (town) Proph. and it works out. If you get lynched, at least there is probably no way for someone to read anything against rhand out of it. And if Proph is scum, well, then you guys were just screwed period yesterday, so no harm is done by you making that post.
    If you (general you) are town I’d appreciate if you could consider a world where I’m town, and read Rhand in that context.
    You are asking me to invest a lot of time/brainpower into an alternate hypothesis. What do you expect me to find from doing this? As far as I can tell, literally the only one you have suggested as an alternate to you is KCC (which, incidentally, is what several other people have already said). And your basis - which seems almost entirely based on rhand's being hands off with her - seems very WIFOM.

    Rest assured, if you're Town (and I live - which I suppose I just might if you're town) I'll be re-visiting.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    I am not ruling out KCC, almost regardless of what Keldeo flips as. But I feel better about Keldeo being a hit here for the moment.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    The Behavioral Case on Keldeo.

    Looks something like this:

    Keldeo was Mindreaver. Mindreaver was lurky. I did a PBPA!

    HERE!

    KCC claimed Rber (among other things) @1449 when under heavy pressure. Keldeo is also a RBer. One would think that, after KCC claimed, he might have had something to say, one way or the other. Either about how the claim made him more suspicious of KCC (because he doesn't believe in two town Rbers - and he doesn't have to be claiming that as his reason yet) Or how the claim doesn't make him suspicious (because maybe he thinks her RB and his RB "fit" together and maybe make one full RBing role?) I don't know. I just would expect an opinion of some kind.

    But what we got, in his first post after KCC claim was this:

    1459 A question to Vaimes, asking him for his opinions on KCC (and dking.) Literally no reaction to the claim itself.

    And then, here's something I did not remember at all. I got into a little discussion with Keldeo about KCC's claim, and my thoughts about Rbers. Keldeo asks me some questions @1469 and 1470.

    He asks me, why did I characterize KCC's claim as "actively detrimental to Town" when, in his opinion, RBers are always detrimental to Town if they hit Town power, regardless of whether they can stop a NK. And then he wants to know my feelings about her "soft" and her "claim" and if I think it makes her more likely to me Mafia. Again without tipping anything at all about his own role. And then, in #1472 he nitpicks me about my describing it as "actively detrimental." This is a weird interaction to me. And there is nothing, nothing about his own feelings about KCC or her claim here. It is incredibly neutral.

    Until, finally, at #1493, he does give an opinion. And it's "I don't really want to kill KCC." For the reason....And actually there isn't a reason. The closest he comes is "devil's advocatness." He thinks if KCC flips Town it would be a shrug for him, as that is what he thinks is more likely. He seems to acknowledge that if she flipped Mafia we would get a lot out of it, but just says he doesn't think that is likely. He doesn't say why he thinks KCC is Town.

    This just reads all kind of wrong to me from someone who is also a RBing role.

    Then there was that other non-claim/non-hint/non-soft that has already been discussed, which was that after RBing fulcrum, and there being no NK, Keldeo had nothing to say. Expressed not even a tiny bit of heightened suspicion towards fulcrum. Which he could have done without claiming or softing anything. Just seems wrong.

    Here was my analysis of Keldeo voting for me on D1. #2503

    TLDR hot take:
    his positioning on my wagon, and his lack of opinion on me prior to it puts him squarely in the sweet spot for an opportunistic scum
    But still nothing definitive.

    Another post of mine at #3644. This is part behavior and part mechanics.

    Keldeo on the D3 lynch.
    Keldeo makes a post @3226, noting that as the lynch threshold is 10 for today, we will need more consensus, and suggests everyone consolidate on one of the current top three wagons (Himself, Proph, or Rhand) which seem like the only ones that could potentially reach 10 votes. And I'm like, ehh, this seems like a very "helpful townie" type post. Feels like it could come from scum, but it also could just be sincere. Part of my issue, I'm sure, is that he has himself in there as one of the three people, and it's just so against my natural instincts to ever suggest that anyone voting for me could ever be a good idea.

    One other thing he does - or, rather, does not do - is make a further push for who HE thinks everyone should be consolidating onto. Like, he's voting for Proph. but he doesn't take this opportunity to argue that further, or encourage others to do the same. He's just being so very objective and analytical here. Like he doesn't want to bias the results by interjecting his personal opinion. Which seems weird to me.

    Keldeo on the rhand wagon
    Keldeo then votes Rhand @3475. It's not really a strong vote. He even says that it's mainly to get a majority. He points out one thing that bothers him about Rhand's claim, which is how Rhands corrected it after it was criticized, but then that's kind of it and he spends most of the post talking about other things like if we can come up with a plan for how to use/confirm Proph's Orbs. So, this vote here is one that could easily just be a scum vote. I'm not saying it's inconsistent with his prior posting, it just doesn't give off any Townie vibes.


    I have convinced myself again.

    Vote: Keldeo
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Vaimes, I have a question about the message sender thing you give away. What will that look like, to the player who is getting sent the message? Is it just, a message from the Mod. which could literally say anything, and the sender could choose to not reveal that the message was from them if they wanted?

    I'm wondering this like, if scum had this ability, can they send a message that says "Player X is not mafia." Which then looks like something official from the Mod.

    Or "You are now being protected by Queen Titania."

    You know, stuff like that....
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from Killjoy »
    I didn't give the vest thing away, that was Vaimes.

    And the reason I asked about the orb was because I believe it allows me to be role blocked
    I don't think so. I think if someone who has a Green Orb targets you they get RBed. And if someone with a Blue Orb targets you they are protected from the night kill.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from Killjoy »
    My thoughts will come after work.

    I'm curious why Proph sent me an orange orb last night though. I've been meaning to ask but keep forgetting.
    @proph
    Man, for someone who is being so coy about his role, you seem to like giving out free info. B/w this and the BP vest you got.

    But since you've said it, and it seems there's really nothing left to be gained, I'll go ahead and say that I targeted you also last night with the "get names of abilities that targeted" ability, and I got the name of Vaimes' ability and Proph's ability. Which are specific enough that it was easy to know who did it. No other abilities targeted.

    And I targeted you mainly as a shot in the dark, but as someone townie appearing, I thought you could attract some attention. I wouldn't get a name if the scum killed you, but if I got any other names, that might have looked good for those people.

    It just seems to me that, of things to keep secret, having a BP vest, as well as having an Orb (esp. an Orange Orb which triggers all the others) would be something that the scum would be very happy to know, assuming they didn't already.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    So, everyone's just waiting for me to tell everyone who to lynch today, right?

    Right?
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    All right people, riddle me this. Why does Keldeo's Summer RB target get chosen during the day, but the Winter RB is a regular Night choice?

    What is the purpose of this? Is there a purpose? KCC's RB appears to be a normal Night choice action. And despite this being a Day choice, it doesn't prevent "day" abilities.

    Could it have anything to do with the fact that the Season can change from the Day going into Night? If we assume that a Summer day is normally going to be followed by either a Summer Night or a Fall Night (despite what happened this game), I am trying to think if that matters with the claims there are.

    Like, KCC is only ever blocking my Spring ability. And who cares. My Summer one is the good one. That and the Winter one, which is Keldeo's other block. Hrm. Silver also has nothing in Spring to even get RBed.

    Seems like, if KCC was a scum RBer, she's a little nerfed there. Sure, she has "delay" instead, but it's just not as good.

    I note that Keldeo's ability also appears to avoid my Watch. Also the 1-shot Track. He would be targeting during the Day and those abilities would presumably not see that. Keldeo also could not be Role-blocked, or bus-driven, or Jailed, himself, it appears, baring an Orb situation.

    I have to say that these points seem more useful for a Mafia than Town.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from Killjoy »

    @axel: well you've heard my argument for not claiming. I feel like there's some potential useful info to be gathered here and that outweighs putting my role into the thread. Given that you think I'm town (that big post you made earlier, trusting fulcrum) why do you think I need to claim right this second?
    Well, I was okay with you not claiming right up until the part where it turned out that you had copied my ability and traded it to Vaimes. I am now envisioning worlds where you are not Town. It seems like in most of these worlds this would make you a Neutral. A Neutral role that copies other people's abilities (and you said you are not a role-copier, but it appears to me that you are) would be high on my list of people who could have offed Gemma - and here I am imagining that Gemma was the one with the actual Daykill ability. In this world, offing Gemma would be a rather strong signal to the Mafia that you would be prepared to play on their side.

    Is this paranoia? Well, sure. That's what I do.

    I would say behaviorally otherwise, I've felt good about you, but it seems this could be true if you were Neutral as much as Town. A full claim from you could go a long way towards addressing my concerns. Depending on what it turned out to be.

    In general, I do not care to be in the dark about things.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Ever Changing Seasons Mafia - Day Eight Final Fall
    Quote from KittyCupCake »
    Quote from Axelrod »
    NO DEATH on N1

    Operative theories for this include:

    (1) LW's "Tranquility" ability preventing N1 deaths. I dislike this because it would be choosing one night for an effect the following night. Also, what is the effect? It can't be "prevent all kills for the next cycle" because clearly it did not stop the daykill. It might be "prevent all deaths the following night, but not deaths during the day" but that seems weirdly limited to me. This might still be the most operative theory just because otherwise we have no idea what it did.

    (2) fulcrum was Rbed. Fairly straightforward theory here.

    (3) Scum had some ability to give up/skip the Night-kill in return for a day-kill. I find this the least likely. If the scum had an ability like that, which could be used anytime, I feel they would have used it more tactically, to try and eliminate a strong role. Shooting Gemma would have been mostly a shot in the dark. Also, would this be some kind of "collective" group ability, or one person's ability (that might only be operative in Summer). It seems weird to me that if it was a single scum's ability that it would give up the regular Factional group night-kill.

    (4) Strategically nokilled to manipulate the season, similar to our reason to nolynch D1?
    I see scum choosing to No Kill speculated about a lot. I'm not sure I've ever actually seen it - baring some very specific endgame situations. I would be stunned to learn the scum just gave up a free shot on N1.
    Posted in: Mafia
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