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  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    On the subject of who Tom is going to hypothetically shoot.

    1. Vaimes
    2. Grapefruit21
    3. Axelrod
    5. Sir Chris
    6. Fuwa
    7. Cantripmancer
    8. shadowlancerx
    9. vezokpiraka
    10. KittyCupCake r. KillerCandyCorn
    11. Lastwhisper r. Syrenz
    12. dkingsland967
    13. killjoy
    14. beeboy

    If I struck through your name I currently actively think you are Town. The rest I haven't looked close enough at yet.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    I'm also going to echo KCC is asking Fuwa to state whether he used his 1-shot last night. Not anything else yet, but just that much.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Annd then the last (two) votes were Killjoy at #1260, and Tom swooping in for "Hammertime" too late @1261.

    Both of these were the equivalent of garbage-time votes given the plurality lynching mechanism. Az was already going down, so the votes were meaningless in that sense. I will give Killjoy more credit for being around earlier and expressing his opinions. Tom gets NOTHING.

    That's that part of the day. I think the earlier part where all the votes went off Az and onto Fuwa so rapidly is worth a closer look also, but that will have to happen later.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Cantrip followed Shadow's vote with a vote for Az at #1252, and this vote likely sealed the deal. He thinks he's just tipped it to be 7-6 in favor of Az, but it's actually 8-5 because Shadow's vote came off Fuwa. I feel like this vote is consistent with what Cantrip has been posting in the thread. I also like how active and engaged he was at the deadline, asking questions and prodding, especially of Fuwa. As I said, his thought process seemed to mirror my own.

    As a possible bus-vote, I rate this as marginally more plausible than Shadow's vote, but still not likely. Maybe if Cantrip had actually caught that the vote total was now in favor of Az. Rhand came back posting in the middle and he was still aggressively pushing for an Az lynch, so that could have had an effect as well. But overall, it still looks good for Cantrip.

    Cantrip-Likely Town
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    And then at #1249, with less than 38 minutes until deadline, it's Shadowlancerx who comes in and probably saves the day. He switches off Fuwa and back to Az. And that flips the majority.

    I said something about epic-bussing in relation to KCC above, this would truly be some epic-bussing if Shadow is not Town. Again, it's not impossible, but it just seems so unlikely for a scum-Shadow to make the decision to throw Az under the bus like that with 38 minutes remaining, when it would have been sooooo so easy to stay on Fuwa after that terrible claim. It seems so unlikely that I'm just not going to believe it.

    Shadow-Town.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    So now we're getting to the most interesting part, from my perspective at least. Because I thought Fuwa's claim was awful.

    Had I been around, it is entirely possible that that claim would have convinced me to vote for him. I'm not sure there's much point in dissecting it now, but it's just so textbook bad for someone in his situation. When I first read it, next morning catching up before I knew who got lynched, my very first thought was "wow, he's such a goner...." There was simply no way that claim, made in that way, at that time, was going to convince anyone to change their votes. Or so I thought.

    Cantrip was the first one who posted after, and his take essentially mirrored my own. In #1235 he claims he had been planning to move his vote back to Az before the end of the day (and here I pause to say, really? You were leaving it until the literal last second when it might not have mattered anymore? And I make a note to myself to go and check if Cantrip said anywhere that this was his intention.) But despite this intention, Fuwa's claim has him leaving his vote right where it is.

    And I can't blame him. As I said, had I been in that spot, that definitely would have been at least my initial take on it as well. Possibly I could have come around. Don't know.

    Killjoy posted at #1238 and equivocated. I don't even understand his mentality here, he says "Thought for later: maybe there's actually multiple joats." Suggesting he might believe Fuwa, but doesn't really argue against his lynch or for anyone else. He just throws it out there. This might not be inconsistent with Killjoy not liking either of the choices. And if Killjoy were scum, it would have been so, so easy to jump on Fuwa there. Thinking about it more, it seems like Killjoy might be Town waffling here, unless he's specifically scum with both Az and Fuwa. Maybe he could be gunshy scum who was afraid of looking like he was defending a scumbuddy and locked into not voting from his previous statements. But the bad claim would have given him an easy out to try and save Az if he just went for it.

    So, now I'm calling that a Town-lean.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Killjoy and Grapefruit posted. Killjoy waffled and said he didn't like either option. GF liked the shift to Az. That's mostly NAL stuff for me.

    I was staying up until midnight to see what happened under the mistaken belief that the day ended at midnight e.s.t. When we went past midnight and Proph did not appear I was annoyed, but still stayed up. Then Proph posted the updated votecount at something like 12:30-12:45 a.m.
    Vote Count 1.29

    Fuwa (7): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, shadowlancerx, tomsloger, Cantripmancer, vezokpiraka, Lastwhisper
    Azrael (5): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, KittyCupCake, Azelrod,
    shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
    Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
    Vaimes (1): Azrael

    Abstain (0):

    With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch.
    When I realized it was still going to be 2 more hours. I went to bed. Fuwa had still not claimed anything at that point.

    Of course, Fuwa appeared shortly after and made his claim in #132. 1-shot JOAT. Votes for Azrael in the same post.

    It's interesting to contemplate this from a "what if they are both scum" viewpoint. I feel like scum-Fuwa could easily make that vote in that spot, might even have felt obligated to do so. But it still seems likely that the scum - if forced to pick between Az and Fuwa - would have preferred Az live, no disrespect intended to Fuwa. And it would have been very easy for Fuwa to take a dive here, or just not vote Az to increase the likelyhood of his own lynch.

    Looking back, Fuwa didn't have much at all to say about Az prior to the "self-preservation" vote. Most might have been this:
    I like Azrael's posts, but others made pretty convincing points against him too... so I'm just gonna observe how his train goes. I don't feel like joining it, nor am I against it.
    AZ didn't have anything to say about Fuwa either, until he got under pressure and started doing player reviews "from the lowest poster up." That means you probably can't attach any significant meaning to the fact that Az started with Fuwa. His "read" however, was very inconclusive.

    So, I can't say the scum-buddy theory is disproven from any of this. It still just seems less likely to me though.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Last Whisper votes for Fuwa in #1217. And in hindsight this is a really bad vote. He makes the really weird remark that "Azreal did exactly what he needed to do as either a wolf or villager" - i.e. we shouldn't lynch him because of his string of analysis posts - even though he stopped doing them as soon as he got out of range. Says there's plenty of time to evaluate Az later, and even opines that it's 99% likely Az flips Town anyway.

    So, yeah, bad vote.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    My vote came at #1203. You can believe it or not but I hadn't actually seen KCC's vote when I made mine. And I didn't think my vote was going to do any good. It was almost a protest vote as much as anything else. I thought the way the votes had moved from Az to Fuwa was terrible, and the way that Az - who probably thought himself not in danger anymore - had stopped his "player analysis" posting, was really bad.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    I'm sort of looking at this in reverse order, but it's simpler that way. This analysis also more or less assumes that Fuwa is Town, which I know a lot of people are not assuming.
    Vote Count 1.28

    Fuwa (7): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, shadowlancerx, tomsloger, Cantripmancer, KittyCupCake, vezokpiraka
    Azrael (3): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967
    shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
    Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
    Vaimes (1): Azrael
    tomsloger (1): Axelrod

    Abstain (1): Lastwhisper
    This was the maximum shift point after the votes had swung (very quickly) from Az to Fuwa. That's a whole separate thing to look at to how that happened, but for now, this was the vote total. This was getting very close to the deadline, I believe. I think we were less than 24 hours. At this point, Az looked safe and Fuwa looked like a goner. Post #1190 for reference.

    KCC is the one who starts the shift back to Az. That's post #1200. Considering KCC was on Fuwa that represented a 2-vote swing, and suddenly made Az viable again. If this was some kind of bus, then it was a huge and epic bus - especially considering it was Az we are talking about and his unknown but presumably powerful role. Scum simply would not have wanted him to get lynched in that spot, at that time. Period. You might argue that KCC was just trying to be consistent, having been on Az's case for most of the day, but the shift off Az onto Fuwa wouldn't have been consistent with that. in fact, it would have been actively detrimental to hypothetical scum-KCC's epic bussing efforts.

    And then if hypothetical scum-KCC did move off Az and onto Fuwa, seeing that Fuwa was about to get lynched, it seems like it would have been much, much easier and better for scum to just let that happen. Rather than turn and lead the charge to re-bus Az all over again. I mean, it's theoretically possible - KCC could have been gambling that there wasn't enough time for more votes to shift back to Az - but just not at all likely. Even if Fuwa were scum, one would assume that scum would rather have had Fuwa lynched in that spot over Az, and if KCC was already voting Fuwa and would have then got the "credit" for being on a correct lynch, it just seems less and less plausible that KCC can be scum.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Quote from Rhand »
    @tom: trying to get a dkings wagon started is about the most useless use of your vote possible.
    And you don’t even explain why that dkings post is scummy.

    I think my vote is already on scum, and I really want Az to claim, but I am sold tom is scum too. Even more so if Az is scum.
    I don't place a tremendous amount of stock in trying to figure out why the scum kill who they kill in the night, but this one feels worth noting to me.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    I'm just putting these here for now
    Vote Count 1.24

    Azrael (7): Cantripmancer, KittyCupCake, Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, vezokpiraka, shadowlancerx
    shadowlancerx (4): Sir Chris, Azrael, killjoy, beeboy
    tomsloger (2): Axelrod, Grapefruit21
    Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
    dkingsland967 (1): tomsloger

    Abstain (1): Lastwhisper
    Vote Count 1.28

    Fuwa (7): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, shadowlancerx, tomsloger, Cantripmancer, KittyCupCake, vezokpiraka
    Azrael (3): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967
    shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
    Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
    Vaimes (1): Azrael
    tomsloger (1): Axelrod

    Abstain (1): Lastwhisper
    Vote Count 1.29

    Fuwa (7): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, shadowlancerx, tomsloger, Cantripmancer, vezokpiraka, Lastwhisper
    Azrael (5): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, KittyCupCake, Azelrod,
    shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
    Sir Chris (1): Fuwa
    Vaimes (1): Azrael

    Abstain (0):

    With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch.
    Vote Count 1.31

    Azrael (8): Vaimes, Rhand, dkingsland967, KittyCupCake, Axelrod, Fuwa, shadowlancerx, Cantripmancer
    Fuwa (5): Grapefruit21, Sir Chris, tomsloger, vezokpiraka, Lastwhisper
    shadowlancerx (2): killjoy, beeboy
    Vaimes (1): Azrael

    Abstain (0):

    With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch.


    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Well there's definitely a lot to look at with the way those wagons shifted around.

    For now, I'm comfortable going back to:

    Vote: Tomsloger
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    Man, I've been sitting here thinking it was EST the whole time. I stayed up for this.

    I'm not making it to 3 a.m.

    Lynching in the dark still seems extremely dumb to me. I will allow that Fuwa didn't exactly help himself with his most recent in which he appeared to not notice that all the votes had moved over to him and peaced back out, but even so. I'd prefer to have a claim to evaluate.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Modern Mafia - Day 2: Blood Moon
    In which case, isn't this day over?
    Posted in: Mafia
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