MTG Salvation

Quote from Sir Karn

Now Nny is unvoting Shockwave since he's realizing that won't work and is meandering his way over to me.

This is how I'm reading Nny's post as well. Without Karn's vote Shock can't be lynched, and now that Shock has unvoted he sees a potential opportunity to sway 2 votes onto Karn (the only other possible lynch)

Vote Nny

I'm just going to go with my gut and leave it up to Shockwave if he wants to keep rereading. I don't see anything close enough to a case on any other player, and No Lynch will lead to a Nny lynch anyway.

Sorry guys, work has been nonstop.

I haven't been able to reread at all, but my current thoughts are this:
- Shockwave is most likely town based on his thought processes and behavior. The main point against him is the late voting behavior throughout the game and the stall on Proph's lynch but could be explained by lack of confidence and being overly cautious (both common in new players)
- Karn has pretty much been on all the right wagons, IIRC. I don't know if this accuracy is normal for him but raises a concern of "being too correct." However, I indicated at the end of yesterday that I was leaning towards a Shockwave lynch and offered him a chance to join that easy wagon today, but he declined and stuck to his guns, which is a point in his favor. The case against him being scum also relies on him heavily bussing, but I don't know how gambity he is. Also, town Seppel has fairly good reads (even if he can't present them well) and he was strong on Karn being town (I'm putting stock into his reads here because he put in considerable effort.)
- The main reason I felt Nny was town before was his posts leading up to the LnG lynch, but that one ended up being wrong. Since then I haven't seen a strong case for him being town, which makes him the most likely scum by default. There are also several posts that feel insincere by gut. I also don't like his current strategy here of trying to appeal specifically to me (due to my indecision) when it means nothing if he doesn't convince someone else as well.

I feel bad I haven't been able to follow to the point that I feel comfortable playing Kingmaker here but I also don't like being the drag on this game. At this point I'm willing to play the odds on Nny just so this game doesn't last for eternity.

So you're saying being a townie at L-1 in MyLo doesn't motivate you?

I didn't have time to do any rereading over the weekend. However, Nny's silence and apparent indifference looks worse than Shock's voting record right now (and that's pretty much the only point against Shock).

I suppose I can just vote Nny and get this over with.

Need to reread but I still don't have Internet at my new apartment, so I've been living off a tethered iPhone. I'll try to get through as much as possible this weekend but I also have work to take care of.

@Nny: You do realize that you need both Karn and me to vote Shock? You don't seem particularly interested in trying to prove that case.

@Nny: Any response to Karn's points against you?

Also, why did you yourself not consider Shock as potential scum in #1380?

@Karn: Do you still think Nny is more likely to be scum than Shock?

@Shock: So why are you okay with voting Proph now?

Vote Proph

I previously thought Nny was more likely to be Proph's partner, but Shock's attempt to stall the Proph lynch here looks really bad, especially since he's not bringing up any alternatives (in particular he hasn't even mentioned the obvious one: me).

@Shock: What work are you talking about? Lots of it was shown yesterday and Proph never answered it. We gave him a chance I prove himself last night and he didn't.

Nny is correct that a RB is much less likely if the town only has a Doc and 1-shot vig. Mafia also had a Rolecop. I think a low-power Rolecop vs Doc + Masons setup is much more likely than a RB+Rolecop vs Doc+1-shot Vig+Masons.

Also don't like how Proph had his post up 3 minutes after the start of day, and has said nothing since.

Ready to vote Proph.

Also, with Seppel flipping town, I think that makes Karn much likelier to be town.

If Generic is town, he is already a priority target for the scum. If Seppel flips scum, Proph should be shooting Karn.

Also, the only person Generic should be considering protecting is Raptor.

@Shock: Did you intend to vote there?

@Generic: Who exactly are you reacting to here? Just Shock?

@Proph: Let me get this straight. From your point of view (as a town vig), you appear to be auto-clearing yourself, Generic, and Raptor. This leaves 5 uncleared players: Seppel, Karn, Shock, Nny, and me, with 2 scum in that group. Three of them were pushing for your lynch today (Seppel, Karn, Shock), yet you feel it likely that all of them were just misguided town, and the remaining scum are Nny and me (and we have both stated that you should be shooting us if Seppel flips town). Is this correct?