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  • posted a message on Likelihood of a specific hand
    Hypergeometric Distribution is the method of determining the chance of getting A cards (called "successes") when drawing B cards (called "sample size") out of a C-card deck (called "Population") with D copies of the target success.

    In example, the chances of getting your 3-card success in a 7-card sample size out of a 60-card population that has 4 possible successes is 0.0038 - About one third of one percent.

    When you start adding in different successes with different success pools (ie: Your other cards after the first one), but are pulling out of the same sample size and population, you are then graduating to Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution.

    If you're wanting to go down a nice long rabbit hole of math, you can read up on calculating Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution Here.

    If this is a specific example you want, and don't want to do all that math, you're looking at somewhere around one in 50,000 times, give or take. That's a rough shot from the hips though.

    Posted in: Magic General
  • posted a message on [Global/Tech] Feyd Ruin's Depths of Despair
    Quote from Chairwolf »
    I would like my new username to be Chairwolf. Thanks so much!
    Done! Smile
    Posted in: Staff Helpdesks
  • posted a message on [Global/Tech] Feyd Ruin's Depths of Despair
    I've disconnected your account from your twitch profile here, so when you log in with your other twitch account you can attach it here.
    Then just respond here with what you want your new account name to be.
    Posted in: Staff Helpdesks
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Sundial - Hands Posted

    That makes it a draw, no? Superbajt has to wait for your attack.

    Oh wait, I can block his guys Derf derf

    I was thinking of him slow playing and dropping three lands before his cast to survive the annihilator.
    But in the end, I can make a 9/9 and sit a draw, since it's 8+4+0

    1 | X 6 6 2 | 14 | 467
    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on 3CH LR Sundial - Hands Posted
    None of the decks have enough permanents on the field by the time pathrazer starts swinging to stop him or gain ground.

    1 | X 6 6 6 | 600

    Oh wait no, suprise twist!
    Superbajt can wait for the Annihilator trigger to resolve, cast all three titans, and block!

    1 | X 6 6 0 | 400

    Posted in: Forum Magic
  • posted a message on MTGOTraders/Cape Fear Games discussion thread
    Quote from wilmheath »
    Hey, good observation and I can see why it looks suspicious. When people sell their collections we have a list of some places they can leave feedback about their transaction and this is one of the places on the list. Nothing more than that and I hope what we are doing is not a problem. We did not intend for people to create a new account just to leave feedback but I guess that's not the worst thing that could happen from the site's perspective because hopefully some of them become active members. If you have any other questions feel free to ask away. No smoke and mirrors here. Smile
    I'd just like to reiterate the above, and note that I/we have personally confirmed this previously.
    The people joining to post feedback here are indeed real people.

    We are absolutely welcoming of this, and I hope some of you who join to do this stick around.
    Posted in: Store Discussion
  • posted a message on Can't Log into my old MTGS account
    Apologies for missing your previous post.

    Your old twitch account was "magicdownunderMTGS", but if you use this current one, you can keep using it. Just log out of MTGS, and then log back in via twitch. I've unattached your twitch accounts from your mtgs accounts, so it will ask you again for your MTGS account. Just log in to magicdownunder and you it'll switch the twitch<->mtgs link to that one.

    Apologies for the trouble.
    Posted in: Community Discussion
  • posted a message on Not receiving email notifications that there are new messages
    It's still a known thing.
    It's an issue high up the chain since the new twitch accounts.

    Sorry Frown
    Posted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
  • posted a message on Error leaving Trade Feedback
    Not yet. Sorry Frown
    Posted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
  • posted a message on Change my username
    This was somehow overlooked before. Apologies.
    Posted in: Community Discussion
  • posted a message on Error leaving Trade Feedback
    It's a known issue.
    It will hopefully be fixed soon.
    I apologize for the trouble.
    Posted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
  • posted a message on Were oldwalkers actually that powerful?
    I think one of the big problems was just that we never saw super powerful old walkers. It's just not an engaging story when the villian is an unbeatable god that wins, or the protagonist wades through the enemy unchallenged. Such characters were sometimes talked about, but they were never the main story plot lines.

    We've seen Bolas' power, and he seemed fairly "Godlike".
    PreMending, the gods of Amonkhet were like children to him.
    Now? We've seen the neowalkers who are less powerful challenge him a few times.
    (Amonkhet's horrible fail not being one of those challenges)

    Ugin was close to his power when they battled.
    The unnamed "Leviathan" planeswalker was a direct match.
    Even Leshrac came close to besting him toe to toe.

    Unrelated example:
    Ob Nixilis conquered entire planes.
    Now? The Gatewatch could defeat him.

    It honestly seems most of the old walkers we saw were fairly weak for old walkers, and the neowalkers we see now are fairly strong for the new standard. As such, they have a more even match as far as what they're capable of: Be powerful enough to do big things, but weak enough that the story gives them the chance to fail, etc.

    I'd honestly say that it's the need for good, relatable storytelling that's to blame.
    Posted in: Magic Storyline
  • posted a message on Were oldwalkers actually that powerful?
    Quote from KarnTerrier »

    I'm not sure exactly what you're talking about, in regards to oldwalkers being able to gain infinite knowledge. Oldwalkers were usually incredibly knowledgeable as a result of their immortality and their travels through the multiverse, as I said in my original post, but I don't remember any oldwalker ever having literally infinite knowledge, or even claiming that they did.

    Miss-wording on my part. I don't mean to imply they were granted any additional knowledge, but they were able to amass as much as they could. There weren't any constraints or limits.

    Urza was also one of the most powerful oldwalkers in existence

    I've always questioned these claims. He was one of the most powerful characters in the past story, but there are surprisingly few displays of raw power from Urza. Of course, my memory is crap, so I may be forgetting something awesome, but he rarely did some big powerful thing with raw magic. Urza seemed more like Gandalf. It wasn't his raw potential that made him powerful, it's how he influenced those around him. That, and his ability with machinery and artifice. He created the Titan machines, temporal manipulations, etc. Take the Sylex Blast. Contrary to Urza's Ruinous Blast's depiction, the Sylex Blast had nothing to do with Urza's Power. It was an artifact that unleashed the power, Urza simply activated it. He was strategic, intelligent, and cunning... but not impressively powerful on his own right.

    In truth, much of the old storylines make the old walkers appear weaker than the Gatewatch, with the awesome displays of power that the neo walkers show. What they were actually capable of, in post-revisionist storyline, is a separate matter though. Bolas is, unfortunately, one of the only old-walkers that showed what power they could hold. His battle with the Leviathan, for instance, destroyed two thirds of Madara and created a temporal rift; more akin to the Sylex Blast than to any display of magic power that Urza did. Interestingly, this also shows an Old-Waker so powerful that he could match Bolas' strength, battling him for a Month.

    It's strange to me that Bolas apparently started forgetting things when the Mending happened, since I don't remember that happening to any other oldwalker. There's no indication that Liliana, Sorin, Nahiri, Ob Nixilis, or Ugin ever lost knowledge as a result of the Mending, unless I missed something in one of the earlier post-Mending stories. Which story are those Bolas quotes from?

    It's a quote form The One, The Only, Nicol Bolas.
    As I said, rarely touched on, never quantified.
    The whole "Neo Walkers aren't as powerful" is completely unspecific.
    Posted in: Magic Storyline
  • posted a message on Were oldwalkers actually that powerful?
    Can we treat Commodore Guff as a "full fledged planeswalker"? Because the Yawgmoth cloudform killed him in a blink of an eye.
    True, but I wouldn't count that as "Toe to Toe" so much.
    Also, power really seems to fluctuate between different old walkers.

    If I think about Xenagos for example, his transformation from planeswalker to God was really an upgrade with most upsides overall?

    Again, not fully quantified*, but the Theros Gods are considered to be at least comparable power to a Neo Planeswalker, if not outright stronger, on Theros.
    In order to kill Xenagos, Eslepth needed the Godsend - a weapon so powerful it literally cut through the fabric of the Nyx itself. Even then, he had all but defeated her when she threw the Godsend at him. It struck an arrow head in his chest that Nylea had shot him with before his ascension. The arrowhead exploded within his chest. It was also implied that Xenagos was not fully ascended either.

    Toe to toe without the Godsend, Elspeth would have lost.
    Perhaps another Planeswalker could have bested him, perhaps not.
    At minimum, Xenagos the God was as powerful as a Neo Walker.

    **A lot of these things are specifically not quantified. Many times this is fully intentional, since once they add specifics they are bound by them. Leaving room for interpretation leaves them room to adjust things to how they want to story to unfold later.


    But the gods give a good baseline for the original Old Walker question.
    Old-Walker Bolas tore through the Amonkhet gods like playthings, and the Gods definitely appeared more powerful than the Neo-Walker Gatewatch.
    Of course, Neo-Bolas easy tore up the Gatewatch, so ... still less quantified with plenty of wiggle room for later.
    Posted in: Magic Storyline
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