Hypergeometric Distribution is the method of determining the chance of getting A cards (called "successes") when drawing B cards (called "sample size") out of a C-card deck (called "Population") with D copies of the target success.
In example, the chances of getting your 3-card success in a 7-card sample size out of a 60-card population that has 4 possible successes is 0.0038 - About one third of one percent.
When you start adding in different successes with different success pools (ie: Your other cards after the first one), but are pulling out of the same sample size and population, you are then graduating to Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution.
If you're wanting to go down a nice long rabbit hole of math, you can read up on calculating Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution Here.
If this is a specific example you want, and don't want to do all that math, you're looking at somewhere around one in 50,000 times, give or take. That's a rough shot from the hips though.
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May 25, 2018Absolutely.Posted in: Staff Helpdesks
I've disconnected your account from your twitch profile here, so when you log in with your other twitch account you can attach it here.
Then just respond here with what you want your new account name to be.
May 23, 2018Posted in: Forum MagicQuote from PerfectHandMagic »
That makes it a draw, no? Superbajt has to wait for your attack.
Oh wait, I can block his guys
I was thinking of him slow playing and dropping three lands before his cast to survive the annihilator.
But in the end, I can make a 9/9 and sit a draw, since it's 8+4+0
1 | X 6 6 2 | 14 | 467
May 23, 2018Posted in: Forum Magic
None of the decks have enough permanents on the field by the time pathrazer starts swinging to stop him or gain ground.
1 | X 6 6 6 | 600
Oh wait no, suprise twist!
Superbajt can wait for the Annihilator trigger to resolve, cast all three titans, and block!
1 | X 6 6 0 | 400
May 20, 2018Posted in: Store Discussion
I'd just like to reiterate the above, and note that I/we have personally confirmed this previously.Quote from wilmheath »Hey, good observation and I can see why it looks suspicious. When people sell their collections we have a list of some places they can leave feedback about their transaction and this is one of the places on the list. Nothing more than that and I hope what we are doing is not a problem. We did not intend for people to create a new account just to leave feedback but I guess that's not the worst thing that could happen from the site's perspective because hopefully some of them become active members. If you have any other questions feel free to ask away. No smoke and mirrors here.
The people joining to post feedback here are indeed real people.
We are absolutely welcoming of this, and I hope some of you who join to do this stick around.
May 18, 2018Apologies for missing your previous post.Posted in: Community Discussion
Your old twitch account was "magicdownunderMTGS", but if you use this current one, you can keep using it. Just log out of MTGS, and then log back in via twitch. I've unattached your twitch accounts from your mtgs accounts, so it will ask you again for your MTGS account. Just log in to magicdownunder and you it'll switch the twitch<->mtgs link to that one.
Apologies for the trouble.
May 10, 2018Feyd_Ruin posted a message on "Non Latin Unicode characters are temporarily not allowed."Done!Posted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
May 9, 2018Feyd_Ruin posted a message on Not receiving email notifications that there are new messagesIt's still a known thing.Posted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
It's an issue high up the chain since the new twitch accounts.
Apr 29, 2018I think one of the big problems was just that we never saw super powerful old walkers. It's just not an engaging story when the villian is an unbeatable god that wins, or the protagonist wades through the enemy unchallenged. Such characters were sometimes talked about, but they were never the main story plot lines.Posted in: Magic Storyline
We've seen Bolas' power, and he seemed fairly "Godlike".
PreMending, the gods of Amonkhet were like children to him.
Now? We've seen the neowalkers who are less powerful challenge him a few times.
(Amonkhet's horrible fail not being one of those challenges)
Ugin was close to his power when they battled.
The unnamed "Leviathan" planeswalker was a direct match.
Even Leshrac came close to besting him toe to toe.
Ob Nixilis conquered entire planes.
Now? The Gatewatch could defeat him.
It honestly seems most of the old walkers we saw were fairly weak for old walkers, and the neowalkers we see now are fairly strong for the new standard. As such, they have a more even match as far as what they're capable of: Be powerful enough to do big things, but weak enough that the story gives them the chance to fail, etc.
I'd honestly say that it's the need for good, relatable storytelling that's to blame.
Apr 27, 2018Posted in: Magic StorylineQuote from KarnTerrier »
I'm not sure exactly what you're talking about, in regards to oldwalkers being able to gain infinite knowledge. Oldwalkers were usually incredibly knowledgeable as a result of their immortality and their travels through the multiverse, as I said in my original post, but I don't remember any oldwalker ever having literally infinite knowledge, or even claiming that they did.
Miss-wording on my part. I don't mean to imply they were granted any additional knowledge, but they were able to amass as much as they could. There weren't any constraints or limits.
Urza was also one of the most powerful oldwalkers in existence
I've always questioned these claims. He was one of the most powerful characters in the past story, but there are surprisingly few displays of raw power from Urza. Of course, my memory is crap, so I may be forgetting something awesome, but he rarely did some big powerful thing with raw magic. Urza seemed more like Gandalf. It wasn't his raw potential that made him powerful, it's how he influenced those around him. That, and his ability with machinery and artifice. He created the Titan machines, temporal manipulations, etc. Take the Sylex Blast. Contrary to Urza's Ruinous Blast's depiction, the Sylex Blast had nothing to do with Urza's Power. It was an artifact that unleashed the power, Urza simply activated it. He was strategic, intelligent, and cunning... but not impressively powerful on his own right.
In truth, much of the old storylines make the old walkers appear weaker than the Gatewatch, with the awesome displays of power that the neo walkers show. What they were actually capable of, in post-revisionist storyline, is a separate matter though. Bolas is, unfortunately, one of the only old-walkers that showed what power they could hold. His battle with the Leviathan, for instance, destroyed two thirds of Madara and created a temporal rift; more akin to the Sylex Blast than to any display of magic power that Urza did. Interestingly, this also shows an Old-Waker so powerful that he could match Bolas' strength, battling him for a Month.
It's strange to me that Bolas apparently started forgetting things when the Mending happened, since I don't remember that happening to any other oldwalker. There's no indication that Liliana, Sorin, Nahiri, Ob Nixilis, or Ugin ever lost knowledge as a result of the Mending, unless I missed something in one of the earlier post-Mending stories. Which story are those Bolas quotes from?
It's a quote form The One, The Only, Nicol Bolas.
As I said, rarely touched on, never quantified.
The whole "Neo Walkers aren't as powerful" is completely unspecific.
Apr 27, 2018Posted in: Magic Storyline
True, but I wouldn't count that as "Toe to Toe" so much.Quote from Demonologo Uriel »Can we treat Commodore Guff as a "full fledged planeswalker"? Because the Yawgmoth cloudform killed him in a blink of an eye.
Also, power really seems to fluctuate between different old walkers.
Quote from Demonologo Uriel »If I think about Xenagos for example, his transformation from planeswalker to God was really an upgrade with most upsides overall?
Again, not fully quantified*, but the Theros Gods are considered to be at least comparable power to a Neo Planeswalker, if not outright stronger, on Theros.
In order to kill Xenagos, Eslepth needed the Godsend - a weapon so powerful it literally cut through the fabric of the Nyx itself. Even then, he had all but defeated her when she threw the Godsend at him. It struck an arrow head in his chest that Nylea had shot him with before his ascension. The arrowhead exploded within his chest. It was also implied that Xenagos was not fully ascended either.
Toe to toe without the Godsend, Elspeth would have lost.
Perhaps another Planeswalker could have bested him, perhaps not.
At minimum, Xenagos the God was as powerful as a Neo Walker.
**A lot of these things are specifically not quantified. Many times this is fully intentional, since once they add specifics they are bound by them. Leaving room for interpretation leaves them room to adjust things to how they want to story to unfold later.
But the gods give a good baseline for the original Old Walker question.
Old-Walker Bolas tore through the Amonkhet gods like playthings, and the Gods definitely appeared more powerful than the Neo-Walker Gatewatch.
Of course, Neo-Bolas easy tore up the Gatewatch, so ... still less quantified with plenty of wiggle room for later.
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Mar 23, 2018Shameless plug: My intro to paper pauper is a good place to get a feel for the rules if you're not playing online.Posted in: Articles
Our deck database has quite a few entries for deck ideas (I have 40-50 decks there, lol).
mtgo-stats and mtgtop8 are both good for a general idea of the top tier decks. You'll obviously note that in the top, decks and cards are repeated like every other format - ie Delver is one of the most popular top decks that always appears - but you'll also note random decks and cards that seem to come out nowhere. The more level playing field means that even when you're looking at the top of the top tournament scene, an unexpected deck can easily come out of nowhere and place. Hell, I have a R/G Creature-Killing Control Deck that's dominated a field before. I've seen Heroic have it's hayday.
Mar 23, 2018I'm slightly biased at this point because I love pauper as much as I do, but it's honestly the most fun I've had in magic.Posted in: Articles
After getting into tournaments and the competitive scene, it was very hard to go back to playing decks just for the fun of playing. There was always this unbreakable urge to tune and upgrade each deck until it was as as "good as it could be" (which meant being a competitive tournament-worthy deck).
Pauper is quite a bit different. With two thirds of the cards gone, the cardpool is obviously smaller... technically. In reality, you'll find more possibilities and depth than you would ever think possible. The power level of cards has been cropped, and this means so much more has become viable options. It means you can build what you want for the fun of it, while still holding your own.
I have almost 60 pauper decks built. A dozen or so have been built just for fun/casual experience, but at least 40 of them could easily be taken to a pauper tournament.
Mar 4, 2018SCG has listed all of their foil prices, so I've gone ahead and figured foil value per booster box. Based upon SCG foil prices, and using the 1:2:4 foil sheet distribution estimation (which is at least very close if not accurate), the average box should have:Posted in: Articles
$28.90 in foil cards value per booster box.
Foil value variance is, of course, quite high though.
Mar 4, 2018Median works well for looking at a singular pack, and especially if you're looking to see if you'd get actual card value of what you paid vs if you bought whatever it was as a single. Not so much for a box, though.Posted in: Articles
The median value of rares is right at $2, give or take a few cents depending on where you price. This means that if you pick up a single pack at random, you have the highest odds of getting a card that's worth about $2. However, once you start adding additional boosters, this number gets more and more unrealistic and at some point meaningless.
In example, lets say there are only three rares in the set. Two of those cards are worth $1, and the third is worth $10. The median is exactly $1, but the average is $4. If you open up a single pack, the median says you'll probably get a $1 card out of it - which is accurate as you have 2/3rds of a chance of that. The average of $4 doesn't make sense here - you literally can't get a $4 card.
Once we move to boxes, however, the roles reverse. In 25 packs, the median expects $25 while the average expects $100. The average is obviously close to the truth, while the median is ridiculously useless here. You'll average just over 8 of the $10 cards here, with a decent degree of variance, so looking at the median gives us no benefit. This example is a bit extreme, obviously, but it's a good illustration of the differences between median and average when you're talking about packs vs boxes.
More directly to Masters 25: There is a 1.78% chance (about 1 in 56) that if you crack a booster box you will not get one single mythic or rare that is over $15. It's the horriblest of horrible boxes. The thing that nightmares are made of. Yet, that box will still have a much higher average per pack than the median. That average here is one and a half times that of the median.
In fact, there's only a 1/1000 chance that a box is so horrible it's average is equal to the mean.
tl;dr - Median for singular pack, Average for boosters boxes
Mar 4, 2018I agree with all of the above. I didn't delve much into the per-pack much because I don't think there's really a whole lot to be said. The rare-slot variance is fairly on topic for a per-pack basis, but after that there's only a delve into how much variance there is. If there's a good amount of variance level in a 25-pack box, there's about 25 times the variance in a singular pack.Posted in: Articles
We generally focus on an individual, small group, or LGS looking at the market. Someone who can buy anywhere from a box to a few, with the idea of selling individuals for a profit, or to get the cards they want and recoup their losses.
For individual packs, it's almost always a scratch-off lottery ticket. Most packs are duds, some let you break even, and a smaller minority are winners. It's extremely rare to see any in-print set break this mold.
Feb 8, 2018As a huge proponent of pauper, I feel your pain. In order to make sure everything was smooth, our first release was focused only on the main supported formats. More will come, and you can believe I'm making sure Pauper is high on the list.Posted in: Articles
Jan 5, 2018End of year update:Posted in: Articles
Etali, Primal Storm is a strong titan on his own. Two things to note here: he lets you play the top card of your own library, which will almost always be a good play, and you don't have to play anything you don't like. Pulling a Wrath of your opponents library is anything but a dud. You might not want to cast it, but you've now prevented your opponent from casting it. He's a very strong advantage engine.
Zacama, Primal Calamity might lose his untap ability if you Mayael him into play, but he's still a very strong control card. A 9/9 body is always nice, but his ability to Naturalize over and over is what makes him a massive boon to our board. The life gain and bolt is just more icing on the cake.
Ghalta, Primal Hunger might just be a beat stick, but he can often be hardcast from the hand for very cheap. Having two titans out ensures that he costs just two green mana. Even if you only have a single titan, he's probably still 4 mana or less.
Crested Sunmare needs support to get going, but he can be a powerhouse when he gets going. Perhaps if you focus on some of the better life gain titans, with a small life gain theme. In example: if you Tooth and Nail a Celestial Force and Crested Sunmare, you'll have a titan armada by the next time you untap.
Nazahn, Revered Bladesmith with her Hammer can be a decent combo to play with, especially if you use more than a couple equipment cards.
The above titans list several Dinosaur creatures. That's because Ixalan has given us another tribe we can play with. Dinosaurs are not nearly as cohesive and strong as the other tribes mentioned, but they have a very strong flavor factor that you might love. If you go this route, I recommend only doing a subtheme of dinosaurs, as they simply don't pack the punch that the other tribes and generic titans do. Carnage Tyrant, Burning Sun's Avatar, Etali, Primal Storm, Gishath, Sun's Avatar, Ghalta, Primal Hunger, Thundering Spineback, and Zacama, Primal Calamity are the marquee Dinosaurs for this tribe. Forerunner of the Empire, Knight of the Stampede, Otepec Huntmaster, and Priest of the Wakening Sun are all good support cards for the tribe.
Curse of Bounty can cause some collateral help to your opponents, but it can basically give all of your creatures vigilance and let you double dip on anything that taps for mana. If you do have a good bit mana, it can also let you use Mayael twice a turn - if not more if your opponents activate it as well. Somewhat situational, but it can make for some strong plays.
Traverse the Outlands might cost 5 mana, but can often fetch 6+ lands. Even if it just fetches 3, it puts you into the Titan hardcast zone.
Huatli, Warrior Poet and Huatli, Radiant Champion are acceptable creature-focused planeswalkers. Warrior Poet can be decent life gain that builds up to a large flame wave that clears the path for your creatures. Radiant Champion is best used if you go with Titans that can pump out tokens. If you can reliably get tokens out, she can ultimate the turn after she hits - which then makes further tokens absurd.
There's definitely a good bit more I could cover, but I just wanted to touch on the big new cards that I would definitely have gone over had I written this today.
Dec 14, 2017Posted in: Articles
It's the Gremlins I tell you! They're ruining all of our charts! Ahhhhh.Quote from TheAnnihilator0798 »Edit: Oh, and apparently my UW control deck has a lot of green in it, according to the color pie? Not sure where that's coming from haha.
Something went awry with the card database update. This will hopefully be fixed soon enough.
And yes, a listing of your own decks is slated to be added
Dec 4, 2017It is infinite turns.Posted in: Articles
Use By Gnome Means to put an Eon counter on Magosi, the Waterveil. Tap, remove the counter, bounce: Get the extra turn. In that same turn, replay magosi, which enters tapped.
Take the extra turn, untapping Magosi.
Just keep the Gnomes well supplied with artifact fodder.
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