We started within days of each other. I lurked 'news for years, but finally joined on 9/21/01.Quote from Quilt »I don't know the exact date when I created an account on Mtgnews.com, but I was in the days after 9/11. Mtgnews had a special subforum for that.
So there is a platinum anniversary to celebrate.
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Sep 28, 2021Feyd_Ruin posted a message on I've been on Mtgnews / Mtgsalvation for 20 years now.Posted in: Community Discussion
Oct 27, 2020Feyd_Ruin posted a message on [RETIRED] [Admin] bobthefunny's Strategic ChalkboardPosted in: Staff Helpdesks
Wait.....Quote from FlossedBeaver »Lessons learned: if you let the conservative Christian moderator repeatedly ban the liberal voices of dissent [...]
Are you seriously calling Bob a conservative Christian moderator that’s trying to silence liberal voices?
Jun 17, 2020Feyd_Ruin posted a message on "Non Latin Unicode characters are temporarily not allowed."Posted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
Added!Quote from meltingsho »I'm a newer user and I can't figure out which characters are causing a problem in my post. Could you add me to the nonlatin bypass please?
May 4, 2020Feyd_Ruin posted a message on Double Cleave from Eventide being marked as not filling the red/white color identity in commander.Somebody misclicked greenPosted in: Staff Helpdesks
Dec 31, 2019Warnings were already issued, but I've gone ahead and deleted all offending/off topic posts.Posted in: The Rumor Mill
Back to our regularly scheduled thread...
When a new legend comes out, I always immediately consider them as a possible Commander.
For that, it seems lackluster. It's quick and easy, but it's still just one token per turn.
Seems more likely to be useful in an aggro non-commander deck.
Oct 29, 2019Pioneer's announcement lists only 5 cards initially on the banned list. Will this remain, or will more get added quickly in the format's infancy?Posted in: Pioneer
Deathrite Shaman, Dig Through Time, and Treasure Cruise are legal in pioneer, but banned in both Modern and Legacy, and thus the first suspects. Are there others that come to mind?
What do you think will get the quick axe, and why?
Oct 29, 2019https://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/the-game/pioneerPosted in: Magic General
I'm still here to help out as needed, but given that I'm generally neck-deep in coding mtgnexus, I only handle things here when someone says they need help, etc. If there's ever something that seems like it's obviously just fallen through the cracks, reach out to me directly. I'll either handle it or prod the person who should.
Edit: I should probably make that my sig now heh
Jul 26, 2019Hey MikeyPosted in: Staff Helpdesks
The issue is that those conversations almost always turn into heated arguments that delve into real-world politics/views/etc when they continue on. This was one of those cases, where gender/etc in Magic ended up being used - at best - as a metaphor for real world issues, with several posts even skipping the topic of magic altogether to focus solely on those real world aspects.
The topic is very sensitive, and this is especially compounded with the overall real world climate on the subject. Views are polarized, and this generally leads to very passionate posts on the subject, to say the least. Even if we ignore the resulting insults, flaming, and trolling that arises - the topic itself still diverges into a very touchy subject - from both sides. As such, it's a rarity that any such discussion stays tied to Magic.
I know that such discussions often start with good intentions, but... yeah.
I'll note that I didn't warn anyone in the entire discussion until after my second red text post (and then it was for blatantly ignoring a mod request). I don't feel it fair to "punish" people for having strong feelings on real world topics, which is why the topic itself is more of the issue than the people having it.
Jul 25, 2019Posted in: The Rumor Mill
I don't think it'll be Sword of X and Y, but I definitely expect a high caliber sword or two. There are several tropes there, and surely there will be a sword in the stone and/or Excalibur reference (hopefully both - they weren't the same sword).Quote from FlossedBeaver »Does anybody think Wizards will take this opportunity to complete the Swords of X and Y cycle? It’s a good a place as any.
Jul 25, 2019We're seriously at like half the posts in this thread now deleted.Posted in: The Rumor Mill
New idea: Let's use this thread about a magic set, on a magic-specific forum, hosted on a magic-specific web site, filled with magic fans who want to talk about magic... to.. talk.. about.. Magic...
If you want to discuss world politics, gender equality, gender identity, etc, there's plenty of websites and discussion boards for that. This is not one of them. Using Magic as a metaphor for real world discussion doesn't qualify it for being here either.
Jul 16, 2019Feyd_Ruin posted a message on Reinstalled browser and now twitch.tv account isnt linked to MTGSPM'dPosted in: Forum Software Feedback and Bug Reports
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Jul 13, 2019It would.Posted in: Articles
Although if you had primer status here, there is a high degree of probability you'll get primer status there very quickly after you transfer and adjust.
You will need to adjust your post a little for the other side. The vast majority of tags remain the same, but there's a few that have changed. I highly recommend reading the bbcode guide I made to remove any guesswork, etc.
Jun 1, 2019As someone who came from MTGNews, and later helped that site with technical matters and even built them a new front page well after the split (which, incidentally, caused issues for me over here), I can assure you I haven't forgotten them or where we came from at all. I simply didn't delve much into our history, beyond giving mention to our founder and the wonderful contributions the community has given over the years. If I'd have gone in depth with our history, I fear the point of the article could easily have been buried or overlooked.Posted in: Articles
Mar 14, 2019Absolutely.Posted in: Articles
Unfortunately, there's very little turn around from start to finish, so if things come up in my life, it can falter. Unfortunately, this has been the case the past couple weeks (illness & death in family), but I wholeheartedly hope to restart and have them return to normalcy.
Feb 3, 2019Hit-Over-Miss is calculated exactly as: A "Hit" box's value divided by A "Miss" box's value.Posted in: Articles
So it, as the name suggests, Hit divided by miss.
A hit box value is defined as:
The expected value of a booster box which contains all of the set's top 3 rares and top 3 mythics.
In RNA, this would be a box that had Hydroid Krasis, Prime Speaker Vannifar, Spawn of Mayhem, Breeding Pool, Blood Crypt, and Stomping Ground. This is a top end box that got all the right cards. Such a box averages $144.41 in value.
A miss is defined as:
The expected value of a booster box which does NOT contain any of the set's top 3 rares and top 3 mythics.
In RNA, this is a box that does not contain any of the above Hit Box's cards. It's the realistic dud we'll see thrown into the mix. Such a box averages $67.71 in value. (This is very high for a Miss value, actually, but RNA is new and inflated)
What it means and why
These two values gives us a range of what's generally realistic of what we'll actually receive. It's not the only way to get a good box or bad box, but it's a very good delimiter for both. Offering just a range value ($77), however, can be misleading or confusing as the position of the top and bottom is very important. Sets can have about the same range value, while offering completely different levels of variation. By dividing the top by the bottom, we can see how the range compares to the total possibilities, and thus a more accurate depiction of variation. Hit-over-miss thus illustrates the consistency in returns better than range. (Standard deviation, etc, is also less easy to correlate directly)
Thus, by dividing 144.41 by 67.71 we get RNA's Hit-Over-Miss of 213%.
This value, alone, doesn't tell us the variation directly. Just like other set values, we tell if a Hit-Over-Miss is high or low mainly by comparing it to the Hit-Over-Miss values of other sets. A set is only "stable" or "unstable" because of how it compares to other sets.
In general: 200% is extremely stable, 300% is decent, and 400% is unstable.
I could just convert this to a "stability score", but I do always try to be concise and clear in what I'm saying and how I got there, even if the method seems unorthodox.
Feb 3, 2019I did a full write-up on hit-over-miss when I introduced it, you can read precisely how this figure is calculated Here. Although the set data is of course old, the calculation is exactly the same.Posted in: Articles
As for my calculations, I can dive into that fairly quickly.
(Edit: I guess it wasn't so quick, but.. now you know!)
All pricing is directly taken from TCGPlayer, using their Market Value USD price. The Market Value price is the best indication for the actual selling point for most cards. The Low-Mid-High system is, and has been, way off in the past because of outliers and targeted manipulation. The Market Value directly looks at what the card has actually been selling at, and is much harder to disrupt.
As for box value, this is a more complex and long calculation that looks at the expected value a box has. I'll run it down using Ravnica Allegiance as our guide.
First, I always calculate cards that are worth less than $0.50 as $0.00. These cards are generally unsellable in the major market and will only overinflate what you might actually expect to get in returns. You should, of course, sell every card you can - but these are minor cards that will often sit unsold for a long time. They can give you profit in the long haul, but should not be noted when looking at more direct returns. This is where I call cards "sellable" or "unsellable" - it specifically means "worth $0.50 or more" or not.
I don't break the values down per-pack because the variability between packs is far too high. You can find it by dividing the box value by the pack count, but this is generally a unneeded and misleading number unless you're somehow buying a large quantity of individual packs. Outside of trying to invest in singles, when you're looking at flipping product and profit margins, boxes are the smallest denominator.
So instead of packs, I note the average Rare Slot value, which has more broad uses. This is an easy calculation of looking at all rares and mythics, and averaging them accordingly. Each individual rare is twice as common as any individual mythic, so we can calculate this by:
(Rare Average)+(Rare Average)+(Mythic Average) / (Rare Count)+(Rare Count)+(Mythic Count)
This gives us a Rare Slot average of an even $2.50.
This is the only number where I don't toss out cards below $0.50.
For calculating the box value, however, we toss out all cards under $0.50, while still dividing by the entire count. Doing this gives us $2.41 per rare slot instead. Multiply this by the 36 pack box size, and we see that the average RNA box has $86.76 in sellable rares and mythics.
This process is repeated for uncommons and commons, which shouldn't be overlooked. They can add up more than you might think, especially if there is a chase uncommons like Fatal Push. Most sets have almost no value in their commons, but outliers happen. Persistent Petitioners is currently sitting at $0.98, is very sellable even for a common, and appears in pretty much every box.
For RNA, sellable uncommons and commons within the box add up to $9.98.
Add all this together, and the basic pack contents within an RNA box averages $96.74.
Lastly comes Foils, which is honestly a giant probability mess. Foils don't follow the same rarity as regular cards, with rare foils appearing at 1 in 6 foils. The actual expected foil average is 1:2:3. In six foils, one will be rare or mythic, two will be uncommon, and three will be common.
Foils also appear at 1-in-6 packs, which is where the nice average of "1 foil rare per box" comes into play (36 packs = 6 foils = 1 foil rare), as well as the "Almost one foil mythic per case" (8 boxes per case, with 1 in 9 rareslot foils being mythic).
This can all be calcuated in a similar fashion to the above. Average the sellable foil commons, then uncommons, and rares. Multiply by their appearance rate, add them together, then divide by the rate at which all foils appear.
Now, the prices between foils varies greatly, and can introduce a large amount of variability and inconsistencies between boxes. Additionally, some $0.50 foils are harder to sell. Although the scarcity of the foil drives the price a bit, it's not always a coveted card. With all of this, I always round down and add in a bit of lower estimation. This is one of the points where I diverge slightly from others who calculate EV. As I always say, time and time again, when variability is high, round everything down to protect yourself.
You could open an RNA box with a foil Shockland, Hydroid, or Domri - cards that inflate the average quite a bit - but chances are you're going to get run of the mill foils that add up to about $10.75.
Add this to our running total, and we arrive at $107.50. This is a few cents short of what's listed above because we've been rounding down to the nearest penny. (Do this a few times, multiply it out to 36 packs, and we're $0.14 off)
It's a long process, but it's just numbers and math. Luckily I know how to automate such things.
But before I stop, we need to step back for a moment, because people often get mislead by the numbers. We've calculated the RNA box "expected value" - the average return of an RNA box, as calculated across a very large number of boxes. Remembering that this is an "average", however, is very important. Boxes differ. One box might be a gold mine, and the next a dud. In order to actually realize the average we calculate, you'll have to buy quite a few boxes.
This is where the hit-over-miss becomes important. If you're looking at buying a box, or even a few, knowing the box consistency is key. A box with a $10 profit margin but a 300% hit-over-miss means that you might average $10 profit in the long run, but individual boxes carry higher risk than normal. Once we approach 400% hit-over-miss, individual boxes seem to be almost as varied as packs. If you're looking into buying boxes, you absolutely have to know your numbers.
Feb 3, 2019Apologies to the readers who've missed the MMI the past few weeks. Illness and the ongoing GDPR issues have kept me down and busy for a bit. I'm very hopeful to get back on track now and return to a weekly release moving forward, though.Posted in: Articles
Aug 15, 2018We only handle the Standard legal sets. Trying to add supplemental sets, other products, etc, would make it incredibly large. I don't think I'd ever be able to finish the commentary each week lol.Posted in: Articles
That said, yes, buy the bond lands
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